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CPI

The Big Turn?Good morning!!! Wow....just wow. What a day yesterday. Caught me way off guard, that's for sure. The CPI report really just lit the markets on fire bringing it back to that upward channel from the October 13th low. A few days ago I was already mentally preparing myself that this market could go touch 4000 or even 4100. I just wasn't expecting to get there so soon. I did say that I would CAUTIOUSLY buy into this market and follow it up to 4000ish. But with the gap up yesterday and strong momentum, I decided to just watch the action and wait for another entry. So in the near term, looks like it's leaning more bullish. We now have about 64% of stocks above their 50 day, we broke above resistance (3900) and it may have the strength to get to 4100. But then what? Is this the big turn we've all been waiting for? I don't know. Seems that way after what happened yesterday. But I'm still not convinced. You know, I've noticed that over the years, Goldman Sachs is pretty good at calling where we will end the year on the S&P. Earlier this year, they had originally forecasted that we would end the year at 4300. But then... around June or July? Somewhere around that time. They changed their outlook to 3600. Why? What are they seeing coming in 2023 that we don't? I don't know, I feel something bigger is to come in the coming weeks. Plan for today: Since we gapped up yesterday, I didn't buy into it and I really don't want to chase this rally until I get a couple more confirmations. Even though we are above the 50 day and broke out of the downward channel, I'll need a few days to see if I should enter any short positions or get bullish. If we end today with a Harami candle and Monday we have an up day... gotta get bullish. But if Monday we have a down day, then that could show signs that we could head lower. I still wanna see that VIX get to 40 or 50. Either way, be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
Yen extends rally as Japan's PPI easesThe Japanese yen is taking a breather after posting huge gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.30, down 0.45%. The week wrapped up with a key inflation release. Japan's Producer Price Index slowed to 9.1% in October, down from 10.2% in September. Still, this was above the consensus of 8.8%. Consumer inflation is running around 3%, much lower than in other developed countries but high for Japan. The Bank of Japan has taken note of the rise in inflation but has said that it will not change its ultra-loose policy until it is convinced that inflation is not transient. The yen has fallen around 20% this year against the dollar but jumped on the bandwagon on Thursday after a soft US inflation report caused the dollar to plummet. Headline inflation dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% and core inflation dropped to 6.3%, down from 6.6%. Although inflation remains high, both indicators were lower than expected, which triggered a stampede as US stock markets soared and the US dollar was crushed. The soft inflation report has raised expectations that the Fed will ease up on the pace of tightening and will raise rates by "only" 50 basis points rather than 75 bp at the December meeting. According to Fed Watch, the markets had priced in a 50 basis point hike in December at 55% (45% for a 75 bp move) prior to the inflation release. This changed dramatically after the inflation release - currently, a 50 bp hike is priced in at 85%, with just 15% for a 75 bp move. Investors seem to be ignoring Fed Chair Powell's comment last week that the benchmark rate would peak at a higher level than previously expected, which could mean a terminal rate of 5.0% or even higher. The enthusiasm investors are showing could dampen if the upcoming employment and inflation reports point are stronger than expected. USD/JPY has support at 139.66 and 138.88 142.11 is the next resistance line
by OANDA
1
CPI DATA SCENERIO 1 (DROP IN CPI DATA)- Lower inflation printing than 0.4% - Dollar weakness - Bullish gold, equities and even crypto - FED weakening stance - Hints of slowing rates for DEC and months to come If inflation prints lower than that of the previous month of 0.4%, we will be looking at bullish continuations in gold as the institutions have already priced in their buys from the lows. As they have received news beforehand that the prints will be lower at 9:30pm with FED pivots in play slowing rate hikes to 50 BPS in months to come. Breaking above the all-time resistance of 1730 KL could signify a change of market structure of gold if accompanied with low inflation prints.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
1
XAUUSD potential retracement and entrydownbeat US CPI data about inflation led a market rally which bulls are looking for clues to extend. There was a classic textbook double bottom after which the downtrend reversed into said rally. I myself caught a buy from 1712 to 1731 which was nice. I expect a retracement to 0.786 and probably price consolidation for the next day between 1 and 0.786. When the new York session opens on the 12th of November a bullish movement maybe present. Sorry for the lack of detail today, have been busy with uni A more detailed idea will be published shortly, TRADE WITH CAUTION GOOD DAY
FX:XAUUSD
by haadimilli
1
xauusd Update for gold. Negative US data impacted on this chart. Some may see it as an elliot wave theory approach in the 4H chart with waves 2 and 4 pretty small. The fact is that the pair is now bullish. So, the three green line are in my view the key support levels for intraday trades especially the 1730 zone which is in confluence with 0.5 Fib level. Furthermore, the 1764 level has been a strong resistance level which has not been touched since 26th of August. Watch price action. Big wicks etc close to this level. if price breaks above and holds it will go for the 1803 level.s On the other hand, there an equal probability for price to sell a bit and seek for support close to the above mentioned fib levels and green line supporting areas.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by The_Forex_Path
1
GBPUSD short but be aware of US CPI volatilityLooking for some reversals from the previous signals. Yesterday we didn't get any triggers, which signals a change in trend in itself. Today is US CPI so I am expecting some volatility and for traders to get stopped out. DXY could go higher and break through the relative equal highs, this could amount to just a stop run and at this point we wait to see if its a liquidity grab or not. GBPUSD has a couple of imbalances on the way down to fill but there is also one above. The reason I favour GBPUSD shorts today is due to higher cpi readings, leading to rate hikes, leading to dollar strength. Technically the DXY also made its weekly low (so far) on Tuesday and this is known as turnaround Tuesday. USDJPY confirms a possible long USD and GBPJPY confirms a short pound. But that makes the Yen a problem.
Short
by Macrobriefing
2
Where we're going we don't need... inflationThe date was Oct 21st, 2015. No I can't tell the future, and neither can movie makers. What I can tell is the market is aware the next CPI print will come in much lower which is estimated at 7.8. My estimate in the above chart I have coming in lower at 7.4. Sit Rep going into tomorrows print. In my previous ideas and comments I said after the rally we would test the 50D again. If that failed a test of 20D would come soon after. This sets the market up for this CPI print. WARNING!! 10Y auction today at 1pm. Yesterdays 1PM Auction of 3Y ended yesterdays rally. Expect larger distributions in both directions as market makers jokey for position. What does it mean? Expect more indecision over the next 48 hours as bond auctions thru Thursday and more volatility may surface in bitcoin. Event vol from elections will likely remain high into CPI tomorrow. Skew for the first time yesterday pulled up from its steep dive.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
32
EURUSD Post CPI Release | Price Went Parabolic!Hi guys, Chern Yu here. Today I will be touching base on the fundamental news and effects of the CPI release. Fundamental Context 1. CPI m/m: 0.4% vs 0.6% market consensus 2. CPI y/y: 7.7% vs 8.2% previous 3. Core CPI m/m: 0.3% vs 0.6% previous CPI has definitely dropped and inflation is slowing down That is a positive outlook and sign for EURUSD who has been bearish for almost the entire year. The FED pivot might be round the corner and looking for longs seems highly probable. Market has so far been pricing in a slow down in inflation and CPI prints. With the news release today, I anticipate price to continue pushing up and for the FED to hike by 50bps in th e upcoming Dec FOMC meeting.\ I believe that there is much upside potential for EURUSD and a slowdown in rate hikes is imminent.
Long
by Jon_Jones_Junior
1
Cooling Inflation Sends Stocks SoaringThe S&P 500 has rocketed after October's data suggests that inflation is weakening. CPI came in at 7.7% against an expected 7.9%. The markets are looking for any excuse to anticipate a weaker Fed policy, and a tapering in rate hike trajectory. Yields have fallen dramatically and risk on assets are flying. The S&P 500 blasted off from 3749, through our relative high at 3848. We still have some room to go before 3909 but that is the next target. It might be the case that stocks equilibrate around these higher levels as the data gets priced in. If we retrace, expect support at 3825.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
EUR/USD Soars After Softer-Than-Expected U.S. Inflation DataThe EUR/USD pair jumped to fresh two-month highs on Thursday after the release of lower-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation figures as it favors the case of a less aggressive Fed at the December meeting. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0130 area, 1.2% above its opening price, after bottoming at a daily low of 0.9935 earlier in the session and having struck its highest level since mid-September at 1.0159. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported October Consumer Price Index figures. Headline CPI inflation advanced 0.4% in October while the annualized rate came at 7.7%, much lower than the market’s expectations of 8% and decelerating from September’s 8.2% reading. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, printed a 0.3% monthly rate while the annual rate came at 6.3%, below the 6.5% expected. As a reaction, markets are now building a stronger case in favor of a 50 bps hike from the Fed at the December meeting. According to WIRP, market participants are currently betting on 80% odds of a half-percentage point hike, while on Wednesday, those probabilities stood at 56%. The U.S. dollar weakened against most peers, weighed by a strong pullback in Treasury yields across the curve. The DXY index is shedding around 1.3% at the 109.00 area. On Friday, the Federal Statistics Office of Germany will publish the October consumer inflation figures, which can have some additional impact on the shared currency. From a technical viewpoint, the EUR/USD short-term outlook has improved as its indicators are gaining ground on the daily chart. The RSI stands above its midline and heads north, not giving signs of exhaustion yet, while the MACD printed a higher green bar, indicating that the buyers are in the driver’s seat. On the upside, having broken above 1.0100, the EUR/USD following resistance levels could be found at the September and August monthly highs of 1.0197 and 1.0368, respectively. On the other hand, short-term supports are seen at the 100- and 20-day SMA at 1.0030 and 0.9907, respectively ahead of last week's lows at 0.9730.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
2
ZZZzzzZZZzzz at 3800Good morning! Here we are, Election Day has passed and we get the CPI report tomorrow. Couple things about the Mid Terms. Generally, the markets like it when Democrats have partial control and Republicans partial control. The expectations are, that the Republicans will win the House. If that happens, that could be a good thing for the markets. At the time of writing, Republicans have 199, Democrats 172 and 64 are undecided for the House. Gotta see how that plays out. Because here's the thing. Let's say the Republicans take the House and the Democrats keep the Senate, the markets might actually like that. And with Big Tech taking a beating after all these earning announcements, they're low enough to bid on and that could push the markets higher. Whoever that dude at Morgan Stanley was last week, saying that we could see 4000 or 4100 in the near term, might actually be right if it plays out this way. But remember, longer term, we have significant headwinds and this is still a Bear Market. CPI report is accumulative, like a moving average. If you add up all the monthly CPI numbers, it gives you the annualized CPI. It's going to stay high because at the beginning of this year, we were seeing CPI numbers at about 1%. So when we add all these monthly's up, we're going to get a high number. Obviously, over time, this will come down. Which is why expectations are to get to 4% by early Q2 or abouts. So, if the Republicans' don't take the House, and the CPI report is hot. What does that mean for the markets? Well, we could head back down starting tomorrow or Friday. Either way, these are two possible outcomes that could play out. Plan for the Day: We're technically still in No Man's Land but with a slightly more Bullish lean right now. IF I decide to chase this up to 4000, or 4100, I will do so cautiously and wait for an exhausting point in the rally. We might just hang out here at 3800 today until all the results come in and then tomorrow we could see the true direction. I'll sit on my hands again and just watch the market. Be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
🔴 XAUUSD : Inflation Data (CPI) effectAs you can see, the price took the second scenario and entered its 4-hour Bearish Order Block yesterday with a strong move towards the $1719 range, and this caused the price to reject from $1722 to $1702, That is, with this scenario, the price dropped by more than 200 pips, but it has not yet managed to consolidates below $1704, and according to the previous analysis, the important condition for a further drop and reaching our desired targets ($1695 and $1675) is consolidation below this price! Be careful these days the market is more tense due to the US Congress elections and you should be more careful in taking and managing your trades ! 🔴 CPI (m/m) : USD 🔴 CPI (y/y) : USD 🔴 Core CPI (m/m) : USD 🟠 Unemployment Claims : USD 📌 Waiting for Inflation Data of this month! 📎 Usual Effect : ‘Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency! 📒 Why do we care ? Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate ! The Main Analysis before Updates : The Caption of it : As you can see, the price with a Spike growth yesterday caused a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that caused by liquidity Void , this range is from $1675 to $1708, in such cases different scenarios can happen that the final result Each can be shared! This means that in the first scenario, if the price consolidates below $1710 and it closes below $1704 , we can expect this gap to be filled and the price will fall to $1695 as the first target and $1675 as the last target! The second scenario is growth again up to the Bearish Order Block (from $1719 to $1729) and then reject from this level! The third scenario is growth up to LMH (the highest price recorded in the previous month) to collect liquidity and then a powerful rejection from this level! Decision making based on each of these scenarios is based on the trigger at the moment! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.10.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
11
Looking at price action on AUDUSD following CPI reportsInflation is one of the key factors in FED's decisions. It is expected to move the market every time it gets released, especially now that FED is watching. Previous CPI was on 13/10 - 0.6% against 0.4% forecasted. There wasn't any directional move on that day, just liquidity sweep on both sides. Before that, another report came out on 13/09 - 0.6% against 0.3% forecasted. Price broke out previous session's high before the event and dropped massively with its announcement. So far, this is a never-look-back level. On 10/08, there was second of only two reports this year that turned out with negative surprise - 0.3% against 0.5% forecasted. There isn't any immediate low or high breach worth mentioning, the price just rocketed through everything in close vicinity. However, as I marked with Yellow line, there was a significant swing high in 60 days period that was breached only for price to return below it and never look back after. I am adding daily chart below with all of the reports. From the daily chart, we may conclude that CPI report has a tendency to create Monthly or even multi-month Lows and Highs. Just in the latest 60 day window, the highest price was September's CPI, the lowest price in that window is October's CPI. With the exception of June, the reports always created a significant High or Low or were or were only one day away from it. Most CPI candles also exert visibly above-average movement and like to take on liquidity in close proximity to the price. A negative surprise (inflation lower than expected) would likely lead above 0.655, perhaps up to 0.66, but is unlikely to change the trend. This would, therefore, be another highest high for months to come. A positive surprise could quicklu steer the price below 0.625. I don't think it will go back up on positive surprise, it looks like that would high resistance run, because the price has provably tried to go there and failed on Wednesday's London session. It dropped instead and following New York session made another attempt, yet did not even beat London session there. Legend: Lines: Violet - Monthly Highs and Lows Dark blue - Weekly Highs and Lows Cyan semi-transparent - Daily Highs and Lows Cyan dashed semi-transparent - New York Midnight Yellow semi-transparent thick - estimated liquidity area Other: Purple channel - Single Print, price went either down or up without any overlaps on higher timeframe charts Yellow, blue, ted rectangles - key forex sessions, first three hours
by OrcChieftain