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GBPCHF;PM SUNAK TO ATTEND SUMMITThe British-Irish Council summit will be attended for the first time in 15 years by UK Prime Minister Sunak. On Thursday, the Tory leader will also meet with his counterparts from Scotland and Wales to repair relations. According to Bloomberg, the UK government is also in favor of reducing the surcharge on bank profits to 3% in order to maintain the sector's competitiveness. A survey released on Thursday, British home prices dropped in October for the first time in 28 months, and the rising cost of mortgages threatened to further stress the real estate market. The October reading was the first negative reading after 28 positive monthly readings, showing that national house price growth was "grinding to a halt," according to RICS. While economists anticipate that the recent calm in the financial markets may offer some relief, it may be premature to predict that lending rates will decline.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
CPI DATA SCENERIO 2 (RISE IN CPI DATA)Scenario 2: - Lower inflation printing than 0.4% - Dollar weakness - Bullish gold, equities and even crypto - FED weakening stance - Hints of slowing rates for DEC and months to come If inflation prints lower than that of the prev month of 0.4%, we will be looking at bullish continuations in gold as the institutions have already priced in their buys from the lows. As they have received news before hand that the prints will be lower at 9:30pm with FED pivots in play slowing rate hikes to 50 BPS in months to come. Breaking above the all time resistance of 1730 KL could signify a change of market structure of gold if accompanied with low inflation prints.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
Taf's Gun to the HeadTrade Idea: Sell Gold at Market Reasoning : Looking at bullish momentum to continue on DXY on the backdrop of strong support at ichimoku SSB zone.The hourly shows a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern as well. So on that looking to sell Gold at resistance zone 1711-1714. CPI figures could give volatitly so be careful on stop loss. Entry:1707.85 TP:1678.83 SL:1719.55 RR: 2.48 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Signal_Centre1
XAUUSD longThis fancy pair has reached an overbought level - short term speaking. Two immense bullish candles and the retracement has already started. For the second big move, price may retrace to 0.5 level for a nice 50 pips target - buying opportunity. 50 pips is enough! However, in terms of the whole move that started approx. @1617, the price may retrace to black Fibo drawing which is in confluence with major former resistance level - if this happens it will be a great retest opportunity if we see long wicks to the bottom and not big red candles!!! Also, the 1675 area is a high volume one with possible OBs lying there for strong bullish reaction. Targets for the big buys -> 1713 area. Reminder: Gold has broken bearish daily trend line and has overcome many resistance levels by hunting retailers of course. Even a 1657 area touch - trendline retest for continuation back up is possible. Waiting to see your ideas in comments. Goodluck!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by The_Forex_Path
What is happening to Bitcoin and Crypto?!! Wow.... I think that yesterday is a day that no one was expecting and was ready for! As we are seeing Bitcoin making newer lows due to the bad environment we cannot tell what is about to happen next. But we have some data to look at. We are seeing that BTC wallets with 10k BTC are making a new ATH and they are not getting liquidated. Most of the people are interested in opening a low the moment BTC hits a newer low resulting in a strong bounce back up. The DXY is on the edge of falling down just like the Yields. Tomorrow the CPI numbers will get released so expect even more volatility in de markets. Trade safe and don't let emotions take over your trading decisions.
by Mynameisnotrelevant
USDCAD:BULLS TAKE CONTROL AMIDST CPITreasury yields recover from the previous day's losses as worries about China's economic slowdown and US government gridlock combine. The government is continuing its zero-tolerance policy, and the severity of the cases isn't showing a similar correlation, so the chances of China reopening have shifted to the downside. With the most recent addition of 8,335 for November 2008, China reports the highest levels of new COVID cases in six months, while also marking a new virus-led lockdown in Guangzhou's second district. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, there is a 35% chance that the US economy will experience a recession in the coming year. The extreme difference between the desired inflation target and the current inflation rate, the aggressive tightening of Fed policy, and the extraordinarily uncertain conditions in US domestic politics and geopolitics are the causes of the rising recession fears. The US dollar index (DXY) has since printed a new seven-week low at 109.35, showing a less assured pullback
Long
by TradeyMarkets
Be careful when buying EURUSD Today, we are looking at the Daily timeframe on EURUSD. It's very important to know what is the main move, especially when trading the lower timeframes. The trend on the Daily chart is pointing to the downside and it's more likely to continue in the same direction! Tomorrow is quite important and we may have some decent setups to work with. This upside momentum that we had in the last 3 days, can easily continue but it's also very important to notice when there is a reversal! That's why you should be careful when buying. The coming days are key for price action!
by ForexTrendline
6
USDCHF: Dollar Steadies Ahead of Midterm ElectionsAs the risk aversion theme is gaining steam, the powerful US dollar index (DXY) has renewed its day's high at 110.40. The S&P500 futures' modest gains have been reduced as risk appetite declines. After Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed), provided hawkish guidance, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury increased to 4.23%. Investors are currently preparing for the release of the CPI report for October. Aside from this, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that money market futures anticipate the US Federal Reserve will raise rates by 50 basis points (50% chance of doing so, 48% chance for 75 basis points). The outcome of the US midterm elections will have a big impact on the powerful DXY and show how stable the political environment is for the economy. Consequently, the race for 34 Senate seats and 435 House of Representative seats will be closely watched. The markets kept an eye out for policy cues from China, a major trading partner, to see if it was thinking about easing up on its zero-Covid policy.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
1
DXY consolidating, but watch out for the next move!!Anticipate higher volatility in the DXY today with the US Congressional Elections due. However, this news event is unlikely to cause a significant change in the longer-term trend. As the DXY trades along the 110.35 price level, look for a possible rebound on the DXY. If the DXY trades above the 110.70 price level, the price could continue higher toward the next resistance level of 111.77. Be prepared for the major news on the horizon, the US CPI y/y data release on Thursday at 9:30pm (GMT+8). It could very likely lead to a stronger USD regardless of the data... Why? Because if the CPI is released as expected at 7.9%, this would indicate that the interest rate increases from the Feds are taking effect, spurring confidence for more rate increases. And if CPI is sticky and still showing above 8%, then the Feds would have to continue increasing rates to combat further inflation growth.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
No trades on EURUSD Yesterday, we talked about potentially selling from the 1,0050 level. However, we then had an impulse move to the upside which doesn't allow us to enter short. That's why this setup isn't valid anymore and we will be looking to sell another time. Also, current price level aren't suitable for long positions either and that's due to lack of decent risk to reward ratio. We are now expecting a continuation of this move after a pullback. Right now, we will focus on other instruments to trade.
by ForexTrendline
3
The Power of PowellCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) If the characters of Game of Thrones were on the financial markets, who would be the unchallenged “King of Wall Street” in your eyes? Since Federal Reserve set sail on tightening monetary policy, all markets fell under the spell of Fed rate hikes. Federal Open Market Committee meetings are major market-moving events. Investors around the world not only watch what the Fed does, but also listen closely to what it says and does not say. The Fed raised 75 basis points last Wednesday. It is bad news for households and businesses alike. The cost of living and the cost of running a business both went up at the same time. The cumulative effect of +3.75% in eight months has been extraordinary. Interestingly, US stock markets jumped upon the release of Fed statement. Rate hike of 75 bp was expected, but investors thought they found some signs of Fed softening, which sparked the “Fed Pivot Trade” and pushed the Dow up 400 points and the S&P up 1.5%. However, when Chairman Powell delivered his speech half an hour later, the market immediately headed to a 4% plunge. His words, “it’s premature to think about pausing”, ditched any hope of easing in the foreseeable future. What Economic Data? I have an interesting observation: major economic data has mostly been reduced to a data point for interpreting future Fed decisions. Discussion of CPI data is not focused on how much food and rent cost went up and why, but whether the decline from 9.1% to 8.2% is sufficient to alter the rate-hike trajectory. Good non-farm payroll data and low unemployment rate are not celebrated for a strong employment market but being interpreted as the Fed needs to do more. Corporate profit may be good for a stock, but not for the stock market. If inflation is stubbornly high and six consecutive rate hikes have not cooled down the economy, more tightening is needed. When interpreting Fed’s policy decision, good could be bad and bad could be good. That is absurd. Repricing with the Gordon Growth Model On August 29th, I launched a series on “The Great Wall Street Repricing”. As high interest rate and high inflation rate become the new fundamental assumptions in investing, all financial products would go through repricing. Based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model, a company’s valuation is the present value of its future cash flows. High interest rate raises its cost of capital. High inflation raises its cost of good sold and reduces its sales volume, resulting in lower cash flows. The combined effect is a decline in the stock price. Since high interest rate and high inflation affect all companies, this devaluation applies to stock market indexes as well. How much will the market decline? This is a $1 trillion question. I use Gordon Growth Model (GGM) to come up with a more quantitative estimate of stock index valuation. The formula for Gordon growth model: P = D1/(r-g) Where: • P = stock price • g = constant growth rate • r = rate of return • D1 = value of next year's dividend Like DCF, GGM states that the stock's value equals the sum of the present value of future dividends. However, GGM assumes that there is a constant growth in dividends. Free cash flow in the Terminal Period determines the intrinsic value of a company. Let’s see how GGM values $1 dividend per share under various assumptions. First, we use Year End 2021 data as a baseline case: • Given that BBB corporate bond rate was below 3%, I assume r = 4% • Perpetual growth rate g = 2.5%, which is very reasonable • P = 1.025 / (0.04-0.025) = $68.33 • S&P 500 closed at 4,766.18 on December 27th, 2021 Now, let’s make a forward-looking estimate based on what we know today: • Fed Funds rate is 4% now, and I expect it to go up to 5% next year • BBB corporate bond rate is now 6.34%. Adding the expected increase in risk-free rate, I assume the new r = 7.5% • With a pending recession, dividend growth rate will be reduced to g = 2% • P = 1.02 / (0.075-0.02) = $18.55 • S&P 500 settled at 3,770.55 last Friday, down 20.9% year-to-date Based on our GGM calculations, the fair value of S&P 500 index should be at 1294 points, or 73% below its 2021 year-end value. This indicates that the index could fall 2,477 points further from here, or -65%. GGM is by no means an accurate stock market pricing model. You could twist the assumptions to your liking and come up with very different values. It’s okay that you disagree with the logic behind GGM and prefer a different valuation model. However, our illustration is a shocking revelation of how vulnerable stock prices are to rising interest rates and slowed growth . There is a lagging effect in monetary policy. We have not seen the full extent of the impact from rising rates. Companies are partially insulated with fixed-priced costs negotiated from prior year, such as office lease, supplier contract, business loan interest, and wages of existing workforce. However, they will all go up when the contract is up for renewal. There is another reason for a downward trend in stocks – year-end selling. Many investors have taken a hit of -20% or more this year. They would sell the losers before the end of the year for tax purposes. Institutional investors will also need to rebalance their portfolio at this time. They are highly unlikely to take on new risks. The bear market is far from over. And the worse has yet to come. Shorting the E-Mini S&P futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) is still a viable strategy. Meanwhile, as long as Fed continues tightening the money supply, we’d better buckle up the seatbelt for a bumpy ride. Happy trading. *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
25
XAUUSD : TIDE TURNEDMajor bullish break-out for Gold, as the price finally closed above our expected Resistance level (4H MA200) that we have been talking about in the last two weeks, and even broke above the 1D MA50 and the Lower Highs trend-line that started all the way from the March 08 Market Top. Even though it is premature and only marginal, this 8-month Channel Down pattern, broke to the upside. Technically it is an early sign of shift from bearish to bullish long-term, especially since Gold has formed a (rough) Triple Bottom on the September 28, October 21 and November 03 Lows. On the short-term, as long as the 4H MA50 supports (1,651.40) Gold should target the 1,729.50 - 1,735 Resistance Zone of September. A closing below the 4H MA50, is a sell call targeting 1,620 again. Ahead of the U.S. CPI on Thursday, we see the DXY maintaining its +1 month pull-back while the US10Y is neutral within a Triangle supported by its 1D MA50 still. All prices mentioned on my analysis are on XAUUSD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MolfDassler
Nasdaq100 Simple Chart AnalysisBase on Nasdaq chart perspective, it will tell us some interesting movement here. If those red line supporting 10450 area can be supported before CPI data announce, very high chance it could be a positive one & tech market could rebound from there. For a solid trend progress, 11678 area must break. On the macd & chip indicator is still on weak side. CTA Market Outlook Good day everyone, CPI CPI CPI ! nothing is more important than that ! Ever since Feds had jeopardize the hope of reviving bull, CPI is the only hope now. They are expecting a 8% data outlook. Market will cheers if the data is lower than expected & vice versa if is higher. If is higher, this means current hike rates is not aggressive enough & bear would be much fierce ahead. This is why defensive mode is require back there for conservative trader to survive this bearish market. Else majority holding would continue to slump further down & the damage wise will be a hard turn around. While conservative traders are on a defensive mode, aggressive traders might interested in energy sector here cause recently there are some momentum on going. Let's dive straight into these interesting chart as below.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by FFCloud
AUD/USD Outlook (26 October 2022)The AUDUSD is once again testing the 0.64 resistance level. This current move higher is due to the weakness in the DXY as the price trades lower toward the 110 support level. However, for the AUDUSD to trade above the 0.64 resistance level, and to sustain a continual move higher, look toward the CPI data to be released (Forecast: 1.6% Previous 1.8%) If the CPI data gets released below 1.6%, this could signal that recent rate increases from the RBA are taking effect. Which would further indicate that future rate hikes could either slow down or be done at a smaller scale. Which could in turn help the AU economy avoid a possible recession, leading to the AUDUSD trading higher. The next key resistance level is 0.6545.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Fed pivot indicatorThis chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th Or maybe they'll allow a brief spike above, and given the length of that chart, maybe 'brief' can be a number of months But as far as what would be normal fed behavior, we're at the tightening limit for interest rates twitter.com
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by givanse
5