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CPI

EURO - It's time we keep an eye. EURO - It's time we keep an eye. $EUR I'l sure many other traders have the same view. We had a low print regarding CPI. Dollar heads lower as lower % hike and we are at 'neutral' as stated by Powell last time. I had a great time trading this but now it's time we concentrate technically on the euro this is a very key area to keep an eye on break above these levels we could head higher and that's the top for DXY done for a little while.. precious metals to increase, cryptos and many other instruments to take into consideration on positioning front. Trade wisely and follow your trade plan. Enjoy the exciting times ahead! TJ
by Trade_Journal
1
Stocks Range Ahead of CPIStocks have established highs, then immediately rejected them, and are continuing the sideways correction. We mentioned that 4178 and 4188 will be very hard to break, as they correspond to relative highs from a previous range held in June. We are seeing support from 4122, but we are on the precipice of a vacuum zone below to 4068. There is another vacuum zone below that to 4009. The Kovach OBV has leveled off so if nothing signficant happens, then we should maintain the current range. All eyes are on CPI today, which will provide a reading on the massive inflation we have been seeing as of late. This will give us more insight as to the Fed's plan to raise rates, potentially by 50bps at the September FOMC. Don't expect much action in stocks until at least 8:30AM EST, when the data is released.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Place Your BetsIt's clear 2022 has been dominated by inflation fears and for a good reason. Inflation is skyrocketing Interest rates are rising Bond yield curves are inverting Energy wars are raging Debt holes are deepening I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but nothing has changed. The reason inflation continues higher is because it’s a feedback loop in a low interest rate debt driven economy. 1.Commodities demand/lack of supply in oil, food, wood, etc.. cause prices to increase. 2.Companies costs go up so they raise their prices and pass on to consumers. 3.Consumers use more debt to buy more thinking it saves costs and they avoid supply disruptions, but this only drives up demand in Commodities… back to step 1. You’re a consumer, Companies are consumers, Governments are consumers. Increased spending by Government will only exacerbate inflation as we saw since March 2020. The only way to break this feedback loop would be to increase interest rates to a point where consumers can’t afford to service their debt. This hasn’t happened so the feedback loop will continue until there is… a. collapse, b. crash, or c. kaput. As for what will happen tomorrow, I have my theories…. Higher CPI - with a higher CPI print tomorrow I think we drop similar to April. 2-4 o’clock today will be a good indication of what the street thinks. Flat CPI - happy street got it right last month (peak inflation), a cautionary drift higher, maybe a rally off the 200d. Lower CPI - nah, you’re dreaming. APPL issuing debt and even META jumping on the band wagon, Gov is on a spending spree for votes… no way… Not investment advice. The only good advice is not to take investment advice from strangers on the internet….
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYvsGME
EURUSD is ready to move highr waiting for US inflation reportAhead of the highly-anticipated US July inflation report, The USD dollar is looking for demand and EURO USD is ready to breach the long waited resistance. EURUSD has formed a symmetrical triangle on 4h Charts, in addition to a price action that builds up toward the long waited resistance - 1.0240 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend), it is obvious now that the pair is about to break out of its range and could use a big push from a weak CPI print, to rise above that level and target at least 1.0370 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Stoploss for this breaking below 1.0200 , which means the dollar gained strength from the inflation report.
Long
by Raniawagdy
3
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 10.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 10.08 - #IDEA 🤖 Snapshot: Short-Term 40:60- Bullish:Bearish Long-Term 70:30 - Bullish:Bearish Technical Analysis: The bullish scenario is to break the local resistance at 23.5k with volume with a short term target of 23.4k and longer term target of $27k where the CME gap and top of the range is sat, breaking through will invalidate the bear flag pattern - this will be heavily predicated on the CPI announcement today The bearish scenario is to break the local support at 22.6k with volume and the path to $22k will be very likely at the bottom of the long term range. Breaking down will confirm a long term bear flag and a realistic longer term target of $17.5k Bullish Factors: + Bullish Divergence Wave & RSI + Contrarian Rejection Signal + 20 DEMA Support + Bullish CME Gap + RSI & Wave Oversold + Wave Dip Buy Signal + CPI Announcement + aSOPR turned bullish + Active Addresses turned bullish Bearish Factors: - TD7 - Challenging Resistance - Flipped 50DEMA - Flipped Local Support - Short-Term Overbought - Lower Low, Lower High - Tornado Cash - CPI Announcement - Further Celsius Investigations - Transfer Volume turned bearish - Funding Rate turned bearish Key News: + $100K #Bitcoin could be a matter of time, says Bloomberg Intelligence - #Binance will disable off-chain transfers to WazirX on August 11th. - U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash. home.treasury.gov - Singapore-Based Hodlnaut Halts Withdrawals Citing ‘Market Conditions’ beincrypto.com / CPI Announcement Approximate Gauge: CPI YoY: <8.7 Bullish 8.7-9.1 Neutral probably slightly bearish 9.1> Bearish Core CPI YoY <5.9 Bullish 5.9-6.1 Neutral 6.1> Bearish Metrics: Exchange + Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure. - Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure. Miners / Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. / Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average. On-Chain + aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom. + Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins + Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses. - Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by -24.00% compared to yesterday. + Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 22.00% compared to yesterday. + Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 8.00% compared to yesterday. Sentiment + Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase. - Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong. - Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment. Derivatives - Funding Rate - Short position traders are dominant and are willing to pay long traders. - Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominant in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers. / Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend. - Liquidation - 33137829.14 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
by Kryptochristian
2
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes key levels and US inflation – Gold price is easing from near monthly highs ahead of US inflation. US CPI will shape the Fed rate hike policy and market sentiment. XAU/USD sees healthy barriers on both sides amid a sense of caution. Gold price is snapping its two-day uptrend to monthly highs of $1,800, as investors resort to repositioning ahead of the highly-influential US inflation release. Markets are reluctant to place large bets heading into the CPI showdown, as the data will be scrutinized closely for fresh insights on how steeply the Fed will raise rates in the coming months. The non-interest-bearing gold braces for huge volatility on the data release, especially after being sold off into the bumper US Nonfarm Payrolls last week. This Wednesday, the odds of a 75 bps Fed lift-off in September stand at 67.5% while the two-year Treasury rate surpasses the 10-year by nearly 50 bps, indicating that the inversion is around the deepest since 2000. A softer US CPI reading is critical to dissuading the Fed from going too aggressive on its rate-hike track amid growing recession fears. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Bears cross to challenge XAU/USD bulls ahead of US inflation Gold Price: Key levels to watch The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price eyes immediate cushion around $1,785, the convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week, SMA50 one-day and the pivot point one-day S1. Bears will then attack the previous day’s low of $1,783, where the SMA5 one-day aligns. The next support awaits at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week at $1,780. The intersection of the Fibonacci 161.8% and SMA50 four-hour around $1,774 will be next on sellers’ radars, with the last line of defense for buyers seen at $1,770. At that level, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week meets SMA10 one-day. On the upside, a powerful resistance is pegged near $1,791, the meeting point of the SMA10 four-hour and the previous low four-hour. The next relevant barrier is seen at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,793. Acceptance above the previous week’s high of $1,795 is important to unleashing the further upside towards the $1,800 round figure. Bulls will then aim for the $1,805 and $1,810 resistance levels, the Bollinger Band one-day Upper and the pivot point one-day R2 respectively.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by sniper_2022
Could CPI data help the US30 confirm a continuation? Hi, and welcome to today’s update. In today’s video update, we’re looking at the US30 and wondering if today’s CPI could break the consolidation deadlock we are currently seeing price sitting in. Price continues to be held in an ascending triangle pattern, and in uptrends, these are typically seen as continuation patterns. We can clearly see that price remains in an uptrend, so if we see better than expected CPI data today, could that be a driver that sets off buyers? Better than expected data could tell the market that peak inflation could be here and that rates could move into a holding phase or at least see a smaller increase. But if we see worse than expected data, this could set the pattern up to fail, and we could see a new break lower. For now, we will look for the current trend to remain in play until we see further price action telling us otherwise. US CPI data is due out at 8:30 am EST. Good trading, and enjoy your Wednesday.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
US CPI Will Be Important For the USD and Cryptos-Elliott waveHey traders, Welcome to our new video analysis in which I will talk about Elliott wave bitcoin analysis as well as AMD stock and the USD. Keep in mind that USD and yields will define the direction of a lot of markets, even cryptocurrencies. So it will be important to keep an eye on Wednesday's US CPI report when speculators will have a better idea of what FED may do next. Will they stay hawkish, or will they slow down a bit? I hope you will enjoy the video. I appreciate your feedback in the commentary below. Grega
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
Two Possible Outcomes for SPY Post July CPI Read I'd like to kick off this analysis by saying these are two potential outcomes of SPY's future price action given that market fundamentals stay largely unchanged before and after the CPI release next Wednesday, i.e., no escalation in Taiwan and no wild earnings surprises before and directly after the read (yes, I know that is a lot to assume). The expected paths I have for SPY should not be taken as an exact estimate as they are relatively rough sketches of what I believe may occur. Path 1 (Green Path): CPI comes out lower than expected. Anything less than 8.9% and markets will likely respond positively to the news, due to the idea that headline inflation has peaked. SPY will likely rally past its current zone of resistance at the 416 area and rip up to the trend resistance around the 430 area. From there I would expect a pause in bullish momentum and at least a few weeks of sideways trading. Path 2 (Red Path): CPI comes out hot again, anything north of 9.1% would likely be enough to trigger this move down. The short-term bullish momentum will dissipate, as SPY tanks down toward the previous support area around 387. From there I expect either a long spurt of sideways trading or a resurgence of bearish control in markets leading the SPY down to the critical 350 support zone . What path is more likely? Despite my bearish outlook on markets, I do not think we will see a strong CPI print for July. I would assume CPI/headline inflation will come out weaker than consensus estimates, likely in the 8.2-8.5% range. My reasoning for this prediction comes from the sharp decrease in commodity prices across the board but most notably in food and energy prices (with exception of nat gas), all of which took place in the month of July. With that said I would say Path 1 is probably the more likely of the two outcomes. Warning : Although I expect CPI to fall, I expect the core inflation rate to come out above consensus estimates. This to me- and others - will signal that inflation is becoming more embedded into the US economy. The sky-high added jobs number for July provides solid evidence that core inflation is sticky and not going anywhere anytime soon. Core inflation coming out hot will likely put a damper on any good news markets receive from a lower-than-expected CPI. With that in mind, perhaps we see neither path 1 nor path 2 play out. We may see a choppy couple of weeks of trading as markets try to digest the meaning of two very contradictory inflation prints. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by Gooby_Trades
1
CPI - Reversal play with strong fundamentalsTechnical Analysis Jan to April 2022 CPI entered a phase where it was oversold as shown by the 1M William %R entering below the -80 level. Signaling a potential mean reversion play or reversal play. Since 25 April the stock has been moving upwards and is now on the verge of confirming a reversal play on the 1Wk chart but with William %R on the 1Wk chart being above -20 I expect the stock to consolidate between $31.44 and $24.60 prior to deciding its 1M and 1Wk direction. A break below $24.60 the 1Wk continuation play would be triggered as it would show signs of low buying momentum/demand etc. and I expect the bottom of $20 to be tested again. A break above $31.44 would signify high demand/ volume and potential shift in momentum. Price Targets If BUY triggered I expect an initial target of $44-$56 (+36% to +78%) with further upside expected if momentum shifts significantly in the markets or we see news/catalysts pushing price past $56. If SELL triggered I expect an initial price target of $19-$21 (+14% to 22%) with further downside expected if it breaks support below. Financials & Quality Screen EV/EBIT: 3.86 ROIC: 25.02% Piotroski F Score: 6 Excellent sustainable growth rate: 316
LSE:CPI
by subtlepapi
Aussie higher ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7030, up 0.57% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to deliver a third straight hike of 0.50%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 1.85%. The markets have priced in a 50bp increase at 0.75%. The central bank continues to grapple with rising inflation, with CPI in the second quarter rising to 6.1%, up sharply from 5.1% in Q1. Australian Treasurer Chalmers told parliament on Thursday that the government expects inflation to peak at 7.75% in Q4, and will gradually ease in 2023 and fall to 2.75% in 2024. If Chalmers' number crunching is accurate, then the cost of living crisis will worsen before it improves and the central bank will likely have to keep tightening, with plenty more inflation to come.  Chalmers noted that the country's biggest headwinds are surging inflation and slowing global growth. The government revised lower its GDP forecast for 2021-22 to 3.75%, down from 4.5%, and the 2022-2023 forecast from 3.5% to 3.0%. The RBA has a delicate task of raising rates to curb inflation but not slowing the economy to the extent that it tips into a recession. The labour market remains robust, an important indication that the economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes. Tuesday's rate hike, if 0.50% as expected, is unlikely to impact on the Australian dollar, except perhaps for some short-lived reaction after the rate announcement, as external factors are the main driver behind the Aussie's movement. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.7056. Above, there is resistance at 0.7120 There is support at 0.6968 and 6904
by OANDA
FED's plan still in progress..A while ago two ideas were uploaded trying to predict btc cycle tops and bottoms based on correlations between dxy,gold and fed balance sheet - and This chart is the next iteration with updated indicators and adjusted logcurve that accomodates recent btc top and tries to predict the bottom. Current anticipated bottom between 25-22k with potential wicks lower. We do have few x factors like substantial inflation which can produce extended sideway action before the final move. Lets see what we get.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EMAflow
1
Yen extends gains on US GDP declineUSD/JPY continues to fall as the Japanese yen rally continues. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 133.26, down 0.72%. Thursday's US GDP for Q1 was weaker than expected, as the -0.9% reading surprised the markets, which had projected a 0.5% gain. There was plenty of discussion about the soft GDP report, not so much that it underperformed, but rather over the question of whether the US was currently in a recession after two straight quarters of negative growth (GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter). Technically, a recession is widely defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, strategists in the Biden White House have been in emergency mode trying to spin the GDP release and avoid the "R" word at all costs. Optics are always crucial to politicians, and with mid-term elections in a few months, the Democrats don't want to see the phrase "US in recession!" plastered in the media and are aruging that there are other methods of defining a recession, which of course, according to them, don't apply to current economic conditions. However one chooses to define an economic recession, there's no arguing that the US economy is closer to a recession after the GDP release, and that may lead to the Federal Reserve easing up on future rate hikes. The markets seem to think that is the case, even though runaway inflation hasn't gone anywhere. Wall Street is sharply higher, risk appetite has returned and the US dollar finds itself in full retreat. In Japan, today's data was mixed. Tokyo Core CPI for June rose to 2.3% YoY, up from 2.1% and above the estimate of 2.2%. Retail sales, however, fell sharply to 1.5% YoY in June, down from 3.7% and shy of the 2.8% estimate. Still, the yen has posted strong gains today as the dollar continues to struggle.  USD/JPY continues to lose ground and is testing support at 133.53. Below, there is support at 131.50 There is resistance at 134.81, followed by 136.84
by OANDA
Marching toward Stagflation..!Stagflation, or recession-inflation, is an economic phenomenon marked by persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand in a country's economy. During a particularly severe period of economic conditions in the 1970s, rising inflation and slumping employment put a damper on economic growth in the United Kingdom and seven other major market economies, and investors in equity markets suffered greatly as a result. (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com CPI and Inflation data will be out tomorrow! "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers in urban households for a basket of goods and services. Changes in the CPI reflect changes in the cost of living in the U.S. The CPI is an economic indicator that is most frequently used for identifying periods of inflation (or deflation) in the U.S. While the CPI is the most widely watched and used measure of the U.S. inflation rate, many economists differ on how they believe inflation should be measured. For a more accurate and comprehensive measure of inflation rates in the U.S., look to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, or use the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator in tandem along with the most recently reported CPI measurements." (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com Now let's look at PCE in the past 2 years: GDP: The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. What is the FED solution for controlling prices(demand side)? Nothing but increasing rates..! Lest look at historical data: Forecast: If CPI keeps rising at the same pace as the past 24 months, by the end of October 2022 YOY Inflation rate will be 10.1%..! Then, I think it will be highly likely we experience a similar scenario to the 1970-1980 Best,
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Moshkelgosha
11