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USDJPY Showing a WedgeHey traders, USD is trading higher across the board based on hawkish FED, after good US NFP figures last week. The next key event to watch is going to be tomorrow when we will get the US CPI data. This will be an important event for traders' decision to see if inflation is slowing down or will FED have to be even more aggressive. If suddenly CPU numbers will really come down, then we think US yields will drop as 10-year US notes can break above the horizontal resistance. And this can then be a trigger for a drop on USDJPY. In fact, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we see an ending diagonal which is known as a reversal pattern. Usually you will see a strong reversal in a trend when the ending diagonal is finished. But when it's that? Well, when lower trendline support and wave (4) swing supports are broken. For now that's not the case, so it's deffinitely too soon for any "reversal" to be confirmed, but it's good to have it in mind while pair trades below 140.40. That's an invalidation level as wave three must not be the shortest. Trade well, Grega
by ew-forecast
2
BTC Will Have To Make A Big Move Tomorrow. No More Time Left!When looking at BTC on the Daily timeframe, we can see that it has been trading in a descending channel since March 2022. Every time the price moved down, it consolidated into a bear flag pattern which eventually was followed by a downward move as expected when that pattern is printed. When looking closer at this channel, we can see that BTC is starting to print a new candle and coincidently, it opened up inside the channel. This can only mean three things... 1. There's no time left before a bearish or bullish decision needs to be made. 2. BTC will have to break through the powerful channel with a bullish move. 3. BTC will have to dump lower to remain in the channel and most likely continue another bear flag pattern at a new low or a quick wick to a new low. The CPI numbers were released at 9.1% and the whole planet is extremely bearish. Usually, when everyone's bearish, the opposite tends to happen, like what we witnessed today resulting in the crypto market pumping. I can't say I know for sure what will happen next but the day opening where it's at right now can either be a great breakout entry opportunity or a great short opportunity with tight stops. If we do manage to break through the channel, I can see a steady rise to the next dynamic resistance shown as the yellow dotted line, and once again coincidently, that's around 28k. Let's see how this plays out. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Long
by rnaofs
4
$OIL bet on support holding 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Oil is in a really good buy zone right now. Crude is trading at $96 a barrel and could head to $93 before reversing. It has been under pressure due to recession fears, omicron concerns, and dollar pressure. Gas prices around the country have dipped, but my team believes that this will be short-lived. We may get a larger oil spike to $130-$140 soon. Our portfolio as of 7/12/22: $TECS $CRK If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:USOILLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
10
Bitcoin 14/7/22 idea (post-CPI)Bitcoin is currently in a very big consolidation range. There is extreme market pressure right now due to a lot of different negative global events - China bank run, US recession and high inflation, Euro collapsing.... Market had nuke when 9.1% CPI dropped but quickly started rallying, which is exact opposite of what you'd expect. There could be multiple reasons for this: - Retail being dumb and thinking that inflation is peaking so they start buying - Shorts buying back on their positions - Strong technical level is being anticipated by market - ... I think that in the long run this range will eventually break to the downside and come into the 14-12k area.
by crauzer
3
GOLD - Strong Rejection Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. GOLD is overall bearish trading inside our orange channel, however , it is approaching a strong support area 1675 - 1700 Moreover, the lower orange trendline acts as non-horizontal support. Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support zone and lower orange trendline. As per my trading style: As GOLD approaches the purple circle, I will be looking for reversal bullish setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
26
EURUSD - CHOPPY!EURUSD CPI print came out higher, we had bearish movement of EUR but we covered that before end of the day and now re-testing those support lows again break of these area then yes we have further bearish movement and I expect the next support areas to come swiftly in control BUT if we stay above these support areas and re-test out of those highs I expect short term bullish movement. Keep in mind the fundamentals: FEDs soon to go on black out and we have ECB next week. Now ECB they always behind, lag very much they do but could they do 1 hike rate? I mean sure recession is on the table can't really rule that out globally so overall we could be choppy until clear direction of ECB but overall DXY looks over done and when you keep an eye on 10's etc on yields it's inverting overall and that's where you've seen recession trade idea which was on my week ahead out look that can be seen via my trading view account links on YT - I stated very clearly CRUDE WTI its a recession trade, goes down less demand etc. Patience is key! TJ
by Trade_Journal
Uptrend holds despite dollar fallEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 Following the release of the US Consumer Price Index, which showed that prices rose by a significantly worse 9.1% YoY in June than anticipated (8.8%), the US dollar ended the day slightly weaker. The core figure came in at 5.9 percent, down the previous 6 percent but higher than the projected 5.8 percent, indicating that pricing pressures are still very much present. The data first sparked risk aversion, causing stocks to plummet and government bond costs to skyrocket amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve may consider more significant rate hikes, raising the possibility of a recession. Germany also released its CPI data, which showed that it was indeed 7.6 percent YoY as previously predicted. Due to central bank imbalances, the EUR/USD pair is presently trading at about 1.0055 after reaching a peak of 1.0121. The US Federal Reserve has increased rates several times, and this month they will probably increase them by another 75 basis points. On the other hand, the European Central Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to begin its gradual tightening in July. Positive UK data helped the pound during European trading hours as the monthly GDP increased to 0.5 percent in May, a significant improvement from the previous -0.3 percent. Additionally, Manufacturing Production expanded by 2.3 percent YoY in the same month, above expectations, while Industrial Production increased by 1.4 percent YoY. The pair lost ground during the day, finishing at roughly 1.1890. In July, the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 100 basis points to 2.5 percent, versus the market’s forecast for a rate increase of 75 basis points. The BOC recognized in its policy statement that, since the spring of last year, it has largely underestimated inflation due to external factors. Due to the dismal state of US equities, USD/CAD dropped to 1.2933 and is currently trading around 1.2980. Prior to the announcement of Australian employment data, the AUD/USD pair maintained slight gains near 0.6760. The nation will release June employment data during the upcoming Asian session. After adding 60.6K new jobs in May, it is anticipated that the nation will have added just modestly 25K new jobs in June. The nation’s unemployment rate is also anticipated to decrease to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent. Australia will also release July Consumer Inflation Expectations before the statistics, with analysts anticipating a decrease from the previous estimate of 6.7 percent to 5.9 percent. While there was minimal movement in crude oil prices, WTI is currently trading at $95.80 per barrel. The gold price settled at $1,733 per troy ounce. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
BTC vs. CPIWith BTC SPX correlation at all time high level, the impact of inflation on BTC prices increase accordingly. Unfortunately, supply side shortages make it tough for the Fed to deal with the inflation issues at hand. So I wouldn’t be calling the bottom now even with lots of on-chain metrics at historical oversold levels. Most crypto traders are more focused on the FOMC results rather than the inflation data, but in reality, inflation data is crucial for the FOMC decision. Below is the timeline for what happened in June. - June 9th: 4% probability for 75bps rate hike; 96% probability for 50bps rate hike - June 10th: May CPI data released (actual > estimate by 0.3%) - June 10th – June 14th: probability for 75bps rate hike surged from 4% to 94% - June 15th: Fed raised rate by 75bps The majority of the 30k to 20k BTC drop happened before the FOMC (June 14-15th) and after the CPI data release (June 10th). If we look at the differential between estimated and actual CPI data, it’s interesting to see that BTC has faced tough market conditions when the actual data beats the estimated inflation data. Current estimate for June sits at 1.1% MOM and 8.8% YOY. 11 more hours till the next CPI data release. 14 more days till next FOMC. Tick tock.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
15
The Fresh Print of Wall StreetNow, this is a story all about how My rates got flipped-turned upside down And I'd like to take a minute Just sit right there I'll tell you how I became the fresh print of a town called Wall Street In West Chicago born and raised On the bond market was where I spent most of my days Chillin' out, maxin', relaxin', all cool And all buying' some spreads outside of a broker When a couple of guys who were up to no good Started shorting bonds around my neighborhood I got in one little inversion and my investors got scared They said, "You're movin' with your crypto and equities in Wall Street" ... June CPI is upon us. The question on everyones mind Is has Inflation peaked? Based on June sell offs in Bonds, Crypto, Equities, Oil and other Commodities it's a pretty good sign that inflation will beat expectations tomorrow and come in lower. Tomorrow also brings a window of weakness when VANNA and CHARM flows take a hiatus. Setting up short term squeezes on tech names like AAPL Regardless of direction, I think tomorrow will have some wild swings.
AMEX:RINFShort
by SPYvsGME