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Gold did nothing, So I slept + I had a headacheThe best thing about being a full time trader is being able to do what I want when I want and as much as I am in pain as I type this, Just knowing that I don't have to answer to anyone reduces that pain 10 fold for me, honest. I don't have to request any leave, I don't have to report to anyone. I can just go. Yeah sure making money is great but what good is it if it costs you your peace. I'd openly accept making 10 times less than what I make now in exchange for my peace. Yeah you read that right.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brandon_evo4
XAUUSD | Road to 2,500 PhasePrevious analysis has now near enough completed with a large bullish surge today making its way over 2 key quarter level phases with 2500 being the last of this phase section, after breaking through the previous days high gold now tests the all time high of 2,485 where there is a lot of pressure to break through already. With various events happening this week such as the CPI, PPI + Retail Sales I think the final event on thursday could provide key insight into golds growth and how the precious metal stands out from the rest, it is noteworthy of paying attention to the upcoming PPI although only short term impact it can play important roles within the FED and further conditions. What are your thoughts and ideas? Let me know below :)
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialKieranTrewick
Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch?Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch? US CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index). The CPI report is expected to confirm a continuation of the disinflationary trend observed in recent months. Analysts predict the annual inflation rate to edge down to 2.9%, while the core inflation rate is likely to decelerate to 3.2%. This ongoing cooling of inflation could bolster expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower interest rates in September. Should inflation continue its downward trajectory, the FOMC may shift its focus to job numbers with greater intensity. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision Of the 31 economists surveyed by Reuters, 9 expect the central bank to maintain its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% for the ninth consecutive meeting, while 12 forecast a 25-basis point rate cut. A decision to hold could lend support to the New Zealand dollar (NZD), whereas a rate cut might exert downward pressure. Traders might like to keep an eye on the AUD/NZD cross, with key resistance and support levels possibly at $1.0975 and $1.0843 UK CPI inflation Following the Bank of England’s (BoE) recent decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%—the first reduction in four years—a fresh inflation report is due from the UK. Headline CPI inflation for July is expected to rise to 2.3% year-on-year from June's 2.0%, with estimates ranging from 2.0% to 2.4%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, is projected to hold steady at 3.5%, with a slight margin of variation between 3.3% and 3.5%.
by BlackBull_Markets
A Possible Recession Coming: What to Invest in During DifficultChart Analysis: The chart depicts the relationship between the M2 money supply, US Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market trends, and historical recessions. Key observations include: Recessions: -Historical recessions are marked and correlated with significant economic downturns. -Each recession coincides with substantial drops in the labor market and fluctuations in the M2 money supply and CPI. M2 Money Supply and US CPI: -The M2 money supply (blue line) shows a steady increase over the years, reflecting ongoing monetary expansion. -The US CPI (orange line) follows a similar upward trend, indicating rising consumer prices and inflation. Current Economic Conditions: -The chart suggests a potential recession on the horizon, marked by the recent economic indicators and historical patterns. Bitcoin's Role in the Current Economic System: This is the reason the goverments wants to stop Bitcoin. People want out of their slave system where they create abundance for themselves with money printing while our labor value is always decreasing. Recession Expectations and Market Opportunities: Be open to a recession in the coming winter. The CME is having a meeting today where there is a 5% chance for a 0.25 rate cut and a 95% chance for a cut in September. Historically, there is a two-month window where the market booms and then rolls over into a recession after rate cuts. This supports the idea of a left-translated cycle and a longer multi-year cycle. For more information, see "The Fourth Turning." Investment Opportunities_ With this information, there can be good opportunities to get in early on investments in the precious metal markets like gold and silver, and also mining stocks. Production materials like copper, oil, and steel can be great shorting opportunities in the coming weeks and months. Conclusion: Understanding these economic indicators and historical patterns provides valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. While the future economic landscape looks challenging, strategic investments in precious metals and shorting opportunities in production materials could offer significant returns.
ECONOMICS:USM2Short
by martinxi5u4
2
Beginning of the AJ Bull's END?!Here I have AUD/JPY on the Daily Chart! Beginning in March of 2020 to what seems to be the new High @ 109.372 in July of 2024, we have seen the end of the 5th Wave of Elliot's Impulse Wave! With Prices steep decline to the new LOWER LOW @ 99.209, knocking out the Low of June and Testing the Low of May, these are the conditions needed for what could potentially turn into a Correction Wave!!! The Sellings have BEGUN! -You can see that the RSI after this enormous drop in price Breaking Lows ( Structure) is now operating under the 50 mark & Oversold! -The BB Trend is now printing Red Bars showing signs of Bears in the vicinity! Where might Price go?? -If 99.209 is our True Lower Low we will be working with, I suspect price will make a STRONG retracement! *Potential Retracement Levels* ( 103.091 - 103.691 ) - Golden Zone ( 104.291 - 105.490 ) - 50% / 38.2% -Fundamentals- *Uncertainty of BOJ decision mixed with the suspected COOLING of inflation on AUD may be just the catalyst we need to see this pull off! AUD - CPI q/q & y/y - Tuesday, July 30th JPY - BOJ Policy Rate - Tuesday, July 30th
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
$GBIRYY - CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% (April/2024) source: Office for National Statistics The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 2.3% in April 2024, the lowest since July 2021, compared to 3.2% in March and market forecasts of 2.1%. The largest downward pressure came from falling gas (-37.5% vs -26.5% in March) and electricity (-21% vs -13%) cost, due to the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in April. At the same time, prices slowed for food (2.9%, the lowest since November 2021 vs 4%) and recreation and culture (4.4% vs 5.3%). On the other hand, the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from cost of motor fuels. The average price of petrol rose by 3.3 pence per litre between March and April 2024 to stand at 148.1 pence per litre, up from 145.8 pence per litre in April 2023. Prices also rose faster for restaurants and hotels (6% vs 5.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 3.4%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US Retail Sales & Cad CPI Data Pending16th July DXY: Look for price to retest 104 round number support. Look for reaction at support. If BAD retail sales, price could break 104 to trade down to 103.50 NZDUSD: Look for reaction at support Buy 0.6065 SL 20 TP 55 OR Sell 0.6040 SL 20 TP 55 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6750 SL 25 TP 50 USDJPY: Sell 157 SL 50 TP 120 GBPUSD: Buy 1.30 SL 20 TP 90 EURUSD: Buy 1.0925 SL 20 TP 55 USDCHF: Could trade down to 0.8920 and 089 USDCAD: Buy 1.3710 SL 20 TP 45 (CAD CPI Pending) Gold: DXY weakness, price breaks 2450, could trade up to 2500
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Surging euro hits four-month highThe euro keeps pushing higher and is up for a fourth straight day. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0913, up 0.34% on the day. Earlier, the euro touched a high of 1.0920, its highest level since March 21. The US dollar has hit a rough patch in recent weeks and has lost ground against the major currencies. The euro has sparkled in July, gaining 1.9%. Eurozone industrial production recorded a sharp decline for a second straight month, a reminder that the manufacturing sector is still in trouble, with weakening demand across most of the eurozone and a global economy that is still trying to find its footing. Annually, eurozone industrial production declined 2.9% y/y in May, following a revised 3.1% decline in April. Monthly, the indicator declined 0.6% in May, lower than the revised April reading of 0%. Both readings were better than expected, but point to contraction in production. The week ended with the US Producer Price index accelerating unexpectedly in June to 2.6% y/y, up from a revised 2.4% and above the market estimate of 2.3%. This was the highest level since March 2023. Monthly, PPI edged up to 0.2%, up from a revised 0% in May and above the 0.1% market estimate. The higher-than-expected PPI report didn’t make much of a dent in market expectations for a September rate cut, which stand at 88%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. PPI tends to be erratic and the jump in the June data likely doesn’t point to a buildup in inflationary pressures. Last week’s June CPI report was softer than expected and boosted market expectations for an initial rate cut in September. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0893. Next, there is resistance at 1.0925 There is support at 1.0876 and 1.0844
by OANDA
BITCOIN LINE IN THE SAND BTC has lost the 1D 200 EMA for the first time this year which is a major TA trend Indicator. On the daily timeframe we can see a clean breakthrough below on the first touch since October of last year, which initially is surprising as this level is seen as key support for keeping a bullmarket going. Now that BTC has fallen under the moving average we've seen attempts at breaking back above for the last 3 days in a row, and with FED chair Powell set to testify today and tomorrow along with CPI &PPI on Thursday and Friday respectively. It's quite a FED heavy week with can bring volatility to the market. The ETH ETF is rumoured to begin trading next Monday (15th July) which could be the catalyst to get both BTC & ETH back above their 1D 200 EMA's. For now the general worry is that the selling pressure caused by the German Government and Mt. Gox is what is dragging price down. However, yesterday recorded a net inflow of $295m for the Bitcoin spot ETFs, the most in 21 days which suggest there are buyers looking to absorb those Bitcoins that are being offloaded. I am still a little confused as to why the German Government have decided to market sell through an exchange instead of any OTC transactions, perhaps it's a play to shake out weak hands and make retail panic? The FA is always complicated but I still believe that the bearish factors are more short term when compared to all the bullish more long term factors. Short term market selling vs long term supply shock caused by the halving, institutional investors and ETFs buying, US election and rate cuts. CPI & PPI can be volatile news events for the market, I think it could be one of these events that could be a catalyst to reclaim the 1D 200 EMA, we've seen a full reset of the RSI since the rally of earlier this year. Historically these are all good long term entry criteria.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
US Labor Market Cools and Inflation Pulls BackTakeaways US labor market and inflation showed signs of cooling in June: The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% and CPI, a core inflation measure, increased just 3.3% year-over-year. US House can’t override Biden veto: US lawmakers fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to overturn Biden’s veto of a Congressional resolution to overturn an SEC bulletin that puts additional pressure on firms that custody crypto assets. The Labour Party won a decisive victory in the UK general election last week: The win ended 14 years of Conservative rule and left the direction of crypto regulation somewhat uncertain. Spot bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday: It was the highest since early June, with buying led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. VanEck and 21Shares have updated their S-1 registrations with the SEC to list spot Ethereum ETFs: The ETFs are expected to begin trading shortly after approval, which should come later this summer. Doja Cat's Twitter account was hacked to promote a Solana-based meme coin named $DOJA: The breach prompted the star to alert her Instagram followers that she was not responsible for the tweets. 🔄 Topic of the Week: The Render Network (RNDR) 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
GBPUSD & DXY Forex Update: Key Triggers and Market Insights📅 Today, we're diving into the Forex market, specifically analyzing the GBPUSD pair. Previously, we examined this pair on the weekly time frame, and now I’ll provide an update with new entry points marked on the chart. 🔄 Weekly Time Frame Analysis In our previous analysis, we identified 1.28019 as the first long trigger on the weekly chart. The price has since stabilized above this level and even activated the 59.01 trigger on the RSI. As mentioned before, the next target is 1.31921, and with a 230-pip distance, this level can offer a significant profit to those who entered long positions following the breakout. 🧲 Curved Trend Line We also have a curved trend line in this area, which can inject substantial momentum into the market and push the price upwards. If this trend line breaks, we can expect a trend reversal and a potential downward move. 📊 Trend Health Check Checking the health of the trend, we notice that each successive bullish wave has weakened while the red candles remain powerful. However, the RSI shows no signs of trend weakness or divergence, and the price has managed to create a higher high. Thus, despite the weakened upward trend, the price has managed to start a robust new trend and cover its previous weaknesses. 📈 Target and Rest Period Upon reaching 1.31921, the price will likely take a rest before creating new market structures, allowing us to find new triggers for decisions. If this area breaks, the next target on the weekly chart is 1.36736. 📉 Bearish Scenario If the price reverses the entire recent upward move and breaks the curved trend line, activating the 1.26262 trigger, we can expect a downward movement. The main trigger is 1.23585, with targets at 1.20909 and 1.18253. 📅 Daily Time Frame Analysis Let's examine the daily time frame to observe price behavior in more detail. After multiple tests of the 1.28019 resistance, the price finally stabilized above it, driven significantly by the recent US CPI news which weakened the US dollar, causing pairs against the dollar to rise. 📰 US CPI Impact The US CPI report showed a decrease in inflation, causing the DXY to drop. Lower inflation reduces investment appeal in the country, leading to a weaker currency. As the dollar weakens, pairs like GBPUSD rise. 💣 RSI and Momentum The RSI has entered the overbought (OB) zone, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market. The price hasn't taken a break, showing only one red candle in the last 12 and forming no structures for a clear trigger. 🎈 SMA99 As previously mentioned, the SMA99 acts like a black hole, pulling prices towards it if they move too far away. Currently, the price isn't too far from the SMA99, suggesting more upward movement potential. However, if it moves too far, the SMA99's "black hole" effect could come into play. 📈 Long Position Strategy For a long position in this time frame, we should wait for the price to form a new structure. We could also look at lower time frames like 4-hour or 1-hour charts to find suitable long triggers. In this time frame, patience is key before opening a long position. 📉 Short Position Strategy The short position trigger remains the same as on the weekly chart. We need to wait for the curved trend line to break and activate the 1.26262 or 1.23585 triggers. 🔍 DXY Chart Analysis The DXY chart on the daily time frame shows a large ascending triangle, with a previous false breakout and a move back up from the 100.883 support. The recent upward move failed to reach the 107.017 resistance and turned back from 106.338, a strong supply area making it difficult for the price to stabilize above this range. 🔫 Short-Term DXY View On a smaller scale, the DXY has a ranging box between 104.039 and 106.338. The recent upward move couldn’t reach the box ceiling, and with the main ceiling at 107.017, this confirms significant upward trend weakness. 🪓 RSI Confirmation A drop below 38.71 in the RSI confirms the entry of bearish momentum into the market. If the price breaks the ascending trend line and stabilizes below 104.039, downward momentum will drive the market. 📰 Fundamental Weakness in USD As highlighted in the GBPUSD analysis, the USD is weakening fundamentally, adding another layer of confirmation for a potential DXY decline. 🎯 DXY Targets The initial target for a DXY drop is 102.688, with a second target at 100.883. Upon reaching these targets, the price will likely range for an extended period, forming a new structure for either a drop or a rise. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
Long
by itsparham96
1
$DXY -Decisive Move Around the Corner !!! Dollar Index TVC:DXY on the cusp of making a major move TA speaking ; (100.8 or 110) - To the upside starting currently by jumping at 200EMA and breaking recent highs within pattern while facing strong resistance just above on Range Ceiling(105) and last Highs of 107(ChoCh). - Either falling off a cliff headed in to re-visiting Range Bottom of 100.82 (Swing/Positioning) Fundamentally speaking ; Would be a great move to the Upside for TVC:DXY Fundamentally speaking, resulting so on SHORTING anti-correlated assets, such as EUR/USD and other FX pairs. Must be time for TVC:DXY to strengthen even more, makes sense ,, otherwise Recession is just ahead ! On headlines , CPI ECONOMICS:USIRYY is coming lower, with economists awaiting Fed Cuts ECONOMICS:USINTR cuts by end year. However, worth mentioning is that wealth hedges such as TVC:GOLD continues to be stocked up in piles of tonnes from China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and not only; China's Wealthy Class is also in the process of purchasing pure physical Gold *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
$USIRYY -CPI# *M print (post AA+)- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady pace for the rest of 2023 and the entering of 2024 for coming down YoY from 9.1% to 3% On the last ECONOMICS:USINTR Rate Hike Decisions following a Month of Breath, our pal, Jerome Powell stated during his speech regarding Fed's seeing inflation coming up on months to come not being total uder control. This was aswell one of many reasons they didn't felt confident to stop the Rate Hiking . He aswell stated that Federal Reserve does not see Inflation coming down to their Target Norm of 2% CPI by 2025, and they fimrly prompt a 'Soft Landing'. How about another joke, Powell ! It's not about Money , its about sending a Message . Everything Burn ... TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
5
US CPI release tonight (Levels & Setups)11th July (CPI Data Pending) DXY: Now consolidating on 105.00 support area. CPI < 3.2 could see the price break 104.80 to trade down to 104 round number support. NZDUSD: Sell 0.6040 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY strength) AUDUSD: Buy 0.6760 SL 30 TP 110 (Hesitation at 0.68) USDJPY: Sell 161.15 SL 20 TP 120 GBPUSD: Buy 1.2890 SL 40 TP 100 EURUSD: Buy 1.0860 SL 20 TP 55 USDCHF: Buy 0.9030 SL 30 TP 110 USDCAD: Sell 1.3580 SL 30 TP 115 Gold: DXY weakness, drive gold higher, break 2390 could test 2415
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
BTC: RETESTING AFTER THE BREAKOUT!!Hey everyone! If you're enjoying this analysis, a thumbs up and follow would be greatly appreciated! Welcome to this quick BTC update. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently testing the support level of the symmetrical triangle it recently attempted to break out of. Here's what we're watching: Retest of Triangle: If BTC holds the support level of the triangle, it could indicate another attempt at a breakout. $60k Resistance: A clean break and close above the GETTEX:59K -$60k resistance level would be a bullish signal, potentially leading to a price increase towards $62k. Impact of CPI Data (Today): The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today could influence market sentiment and potentially impact BTC's price. Possible Scenarios: A higher-than-expected CPI reading could indicate rising inflation and lead to a risk-off sentiment, potentially causing BTC's price to drop. A lower-than-expected CPI reading could be seen as positive news, potentially boosting risk appetite and leading to a rise in BTC's price. Looking Ahead: The outcome of the retest and the CPI data release might favor bulls, and we might see a good pump up to the $62k level. What are your thoughts on BTC's current price action? What are you watching from the CPI data? Share your analysis in the comments below!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
No bigger driver for Gold than inflation this week? This week's economic calendar is dominated by US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) set for release. Expectations are for a further decline in inflation, potentially strengthening the case for multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast annual consumer price inflation to have eased to 3.1% in June, down from 3.3% in May. An interesting development today: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his appearance before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, expressed concerns about the potential risks of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, which could threaten economic growth, CNBC reported. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Gold prices edged higher, with XAU/USD trading at $2,364, up over 0.25%. The first resistance level for gold could be July 5 high at $2,392. On the downside, if nearer support levels fail, the next support zone could be the May 3 low of $2,277.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets