USDCAD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)USDCAD has been trading within the range of 1.3590 and 1.3780 since the start of May 2024.
With the price action indicating a potential rejection of the resistance level, weakness in the DXY could see the USDCAD continue to reverse lower.
A consideration as a trigger for the reversal is if the price breaks through the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing level at 1.3735.
However, the downside is likely to be limited at the 1.3590 price level, due to the 50% and 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the shorter and longer term move forming a confluence with the bullish trendline around the support area.
CPI
CPI & FOMC JUNE 12th Massive day for BTC, crypto and the broader markets as CPI and FOMC take place in a time where BTC has taken a dive back towards the range MIDPOINT.
Both CPI & FOMC are forecast to be non movers, with 3.4% and 5.5% respectively. Last month CPI was the catalyst for the move from 0.25 to range high, however some of that hard work has been undone in recent days.
I would like to see the same kind of move but this time from the MIDPOINT which often provides a better starting point to a move. What we don't want to see if BTC is to keep bullish HTF momentum is lingering around the midpoint level with a view to target range lows yet again. Buyers need to come in fast before momentum is lost.
With sentiment so low but price constantly knocking at the door of ATH, ETF's being approved leading to institutional investment, mining rewards halved and a US election on the way this year. Big things are about to happen in the world of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin is the one leading the charge as it so often does.
Be greedy when others are fearful springs to mind. There is definitely fear in the market and its participants, The chart once you zoom out does not give me reason to be fearful just yet, this is a Bullrun and dips like these can be turned into wins.
$BTC price hours before FEDAfter forming Wyckoff's distribution pattern, #bitcoin price lost the trend support and now likely to test the trendline resistance zone (formerly support). There' ll be 2 powerful technical analysis scenario:
1- This dump to 66 - 67K will be remembered just a deviation, CPI and inflation rate will be positive and #btc will reclaim the trendline. So, distribution pattern will be longed or even invalidated later. Reclaiming 69.3K will be very important.
2- #btcusdt will have a bearish retest, price declination will make the distribution pattern fully play out and #btcusdt discover a price deeper low.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
I last week’s KOG report we said we would be watching that 2340 extension level for a move upside in the early part of the week, and if achieved we would be looking to short the market back down initially into the 2310 level which is where we felt the RIP will come from. We had a little stretch into 2355 but got the move we wanted for the trade and then the bounce. On the way up we also took the long in Camelot giving us a fantastic start to the week.
During the week we updated traders with the plan to go long into that higher regions and gave them a target level of 2370 which was achieved, in Camelot we had 2385, which was hit on the nose, gave us a TAP AND BOUNCE short trade, and the rest is history, what a move and trades on Gold last week giving us another record breaking capture.
Well done to our team for their hard work not only on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and analyse, with Oil also giving us a lovely upside trade.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We’ll start by saying we have FOMC and Cpi this week on the same day, so please trade carefully and expect there to be more aggressive price action across the markets. We have some key levels here on gold sitting below at 2380-75 which we feel are reasonable for attack and as shown on the chart, if held we feel there is an opportunity to long the market back up into 2310 and above that 2325 regions with extension of the move into 2330. That would be the ideal move for us, and if we see resistance with a clean set up in that resistance level, we’ll be hunting a short again to take this a lower.
PLEASE NOTE – If they break below that level early session, the long trade will come from lower down in the 2250-55 region, which is a level to watch for this week!
KOG's bias for the week:
Bearish below 2335 with targets below 2385 and below that 2373
Bullish on break of 2335 with targets above 2355 and above that 2389
In summary:
Price goes up, we’ll trade it level to level, expecting ranging and choppy market conditions, looking for the higher resistance levels. Higher resistance levels, we’ll be looking for the short trade if it presents itself. Price goes down, we’ll look for support to hold, a clean reversal and we’ll look to long. Nice and simple, we’re looking for a few decent trades on Gold this week due to FOMC and Cpi.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic IndicatorsFed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic Indicators
Focus on CPI Data and Rate Decision:
Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are in the spotlight. This follows rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank last week. However, the Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not immediately.
CPI Growth Expectations:
U.S. CPI growth for May is anticipated to remain steady at 3.4% year-over-year. Energy prices likely declined in May as oil prices edged lower, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to decrease slightly to 3.5% from 3.6% in April. This reflects a more normal 0.2% month-over-month increase. Additionally, home rent price growth is projected to slow, alongside a decrease in the core services ex-rent measure that Fed policymakers closely monitor. In April, this measure increased by 0.4%, down from an average of 0.7% per month over the first quarter of the year.
Inflation Pressure Measures:
The diffusion index, which gauges the breadth of inflation pressures, has shown little improvement recently. Fed policymakers believe the current interest rates are restrictive enough to eventually bring inflation back to the 2% target. Firm U.S. employment numbers in May, including a slight increase in wage growth, indicate no immediate pressure on the Fed to lower rates.
Interest Rate Outlook:
Our base case scenario suggests that the Fed will not be in a position to cut interest rates until December. This assumption hinges on the expectation that economic growth and inflation will slow in the coming months.
Technical Analysis: SP500 Index Outlook
Weekly Chart Analysis:
The SP500 index recently retested its support line at 5260, stabilizing in a bullish zone. This suggests a continuation of the upward trend towards targets of 5423 and 5500, particularly if the CPI comes in below 3.4%.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 5260, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 5425 and 5500, potentially reaching a new all-time high.
Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish trend to emerge, the price must fall below the support line at 5260, which could then lead to targets of 5040 and 4923.
Key Levels:
Pivot Price: 5320
Support Levels: 5260, 5193, 4930
Resistance Levels: 5423, 5520, 5600
Trading Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance at 5525 and the support at 5260.
Overall Tendency:
The outlook appears bullish.
AUDNZD: RBNZ is outperforming RBAHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring AUDNZD for a selling opportunity around 1.08300 zone, AUDNZD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
The Overlooked Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on Inflation Everyone talks about higher CPI when crude is up, but ignores it when prices drop.
Right now, lower crude oil is actually helping to soften inflation and weaken the dollar.
Keep an eye on the neckline around $70—but it might not be easy to break.
Correlation Between US CPI Data and BTC PriceCorrelation between US CPI data and Bitcoin price in the following period since Nov '23:
14 Nov '23: CPI -0.5% > BTC +22.59%
12 Dec '23: CPI -0.1% > BTC + 16.29%
11 Jan '24: CPI +0.3% > BTC -17.36%
13 Feb '24: CPI -0.3% > BTC +45.84%
12 Mar '24: CPI +0.1% > BTC -15.68%
10 Apr '24: CPI +0.3% > BTC -18.21%
15 May '24: CPI -0.1% > BTC +17.38% (for now)
12 Jun '24: ???
Strifor || USDCHF-29/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: For the Swiss franc , the focus is on the level of 0.91424, from which buy-deal is expected, and at the same time the medium-term strengthening of the US dollar. The context for a long position has now been formed and one can look for an entry point. The best option would be to go long through a breakout, as shown in the chart. Scenario №1 and Scenario №2 in this case are precisely a long trade through a breakout. The growth target is fixed at the level of 0.92160.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Is Bitcoin a leading indicator of inflation?INDEX:BTCUSD Bitcoin is regarded (in some circles) as both a store of value and an inflation hedge.
But what if Bitcoin is a leading indicator of inflation?
In the chart shown, we can see the various Bitcoin peaks over the years preceding local peaks in US CPI (orange). The US interest rate is in blue.
The last 4 peaks in US CPI YoY have occurred between 6.4 and 8.5 months after a peak in Bitcoin's price.
Specifically:
June 2016 high - 37 weeks (8.5 months) later at 2.7%
December 2017 high - 28 weeks (6.4 months) later at 2.9%
June 2019 high - 31 weeks (7.1 months later) at 2.5%
November 2021 high - 33 weeks later (7.6 months later) at 9.1%
It's also worth noting that the sequence of highs is the same; both BTC and CPI have a lower high, a higher high, lower high, then higher high.
The peaks in 2011 and 2013 coincided with CPI highs 15 and 26 weeks later, but 2016/2017 was the time when crypto first entered the public's awareness.
So why does this happen? Do Bitcoin whales buying lambos stimulate inflation?
I'm joking, but I genuinely don't know, and I hope someone can explain lol.
I've wondered if it's a case of correlation in that rising inflation is usually a sign of easy financial conditions—the ideal conditions for a risk asset like BTC to pump—with Bitcoin being the first to benefit as the ultimate risk asset (at least in the world of mainstream finance). I'm not sure though.
The most concerning thing is the implication. We recently just made another all-time high in Bitcoin, but CPI sits at 3.4% at the time of writing, having moved sideways for almost a year now.
As for whether this is a crazy coincidence, or me reaching to an astronomical degree, I don't know.
The average period of time over these last 4 periods is 32 weeks, or around October/November time. The only catalysts I see are the US government spending money like it's going out of fashion and rising commodity prices.
I'll also note that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with lows in inflation.
Personal opinion on inflation:
US inflation is stalling, rising, and falling across different measures. Producer prices, services inflation, annual PCE, and some core measures are tilting up. The only real decline recently has been core CPI.
It's also interesting to note that 1 and 5-year Michigan inflation expectations are 3.3% and 3%, respectively.
Multiple Fed officials have been hawkish lately:
Fed's Barr: Q1 inflation was disappointing, it did not provide the confidence needed to ease monetary policy.
Fed's Mester: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
Fed's Bostic: It would not surprise me if it took longer to get to 2% inflation in the US than elsewhere.
Given that we've reached a peak in interest rates (for the time being) but inflation has been moving sideways for around a year now, something has to change.
It could be argued that monetary policy still needs time to work, but that doesn't really mesh with measures of inflation stalling or rising over the past year. Wouldn't the lag effect continue working to drive inflation lower? Likewise, why would the US economy be growing as fast as it is?
One or more of three things will need to change: inflation, unemployment, or interest rates.
Unemployment is at 3.9%, low by historical standards but rising since early 2022.
Inflation, especially with what we've seen here, may also be on the rise soon.
If the main lever the Fed has is monetary policy, it faces a dilemma. The data doesn't support a rate cut right now, while unemployment is rising slowly. If inflation begins to rise again, it may need to hike interest rates—not ideal when Joe desperately needs one for the upcoming election.
This scenario of high inflation and high unemployment—stagflation—is what JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has been warning of :
'It’s a warning Dimon has issued before, previously saying he fears America is headed for a repeat of the 1970s when everything “felt great” and then quickly about-turned to a period of high unemployment and inflation paired with low demand, also known as “stagflation.”
Appearing at AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference on Wednesday, Dimon said he simply can’t see how the past five years of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus could result in anything other than this scenario.
As it stands, the US dollar looks ready to surge higher and clear 2023 highs:
While SPY and BTC, adjusted for inflation (CPI figure taken from first day of trading), sit below their 2021 highs:
I am aware that the human tendency to look for patterns and confirmation bias may be clouding my judgement. However, in my view, the market is severely underestimating the risk of higher inflation and a potential interest rate hike, which I believe will drive the dollar higher throughout the rest of 2024.
According to the Bitcoin chart, another wave of inflation could be back above 7%+. I personally find that hard to imagine, but second round effects in the 1970s saw inflation shoot past its previous peak. Deutsche Bank has drawn parallels with the 1970s .
Long-term views:
Long USD, Oil
Short risk assets (equities, crypto)
Unsure on gold and silver but skewed lower
For these views to be truly validated, I would like to see:
TVC:DXY above 105.75
NYMEX:CL1! above 84
AMEX:SPY below 494
NASDAQ:QQQ below 414
INDEX:BTCUSD below 56,500
This is not financial advice, nor a recommendation. I wrote this to bring attention to something strange I'd found, and strongly encourage you to do your own research. Thank you for reading.
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: Based on the results of last week, it can be noted that the market remained at the same levels and there were no significant changes. However, at the same time, such dynamics showed the stability of the US dollar's competitors, which indicates a likely short-term strengthening of these instruments. And of course, the EURUSD currency pair is one of the most promising from this point of view.
Especially at the beginning of this week, the euro is seen strengthening towards the level of 1.90000 . The most likely scenario №1 , which can be found on the chart, indicates an increase to the maximum from current prices. This scenario is a higher priority, and it is better to enter with small stop losses and, if something happens, simply open a new deal. Scenario №2 is a plan B, but is extremely unpalatable for buyers.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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EUR/USD steady as German Business Climate unchangedThe euro is drifting on Monday. EUR/USD is down 0.05%, trading at 1.0849 in the North American session at the time of writing. US markets are closed for Memorial Day, which will likely mean a quiet day for the US dollar.
In Europe, German Ifo Business Climate stagnated in May and was steady at 89.3. This unchanged from the downwardly revised 89.3 in April and short of the market estimate of 90.4. The German economy, the largest in the eurozone, has struggled although they have been signs of recovery. GDP grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter, after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The ECB meets on June 6th and its credibility is on the line if it doesn’t deliver a rate cut which would be the first since March 2016. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that there was a “strong likelihood” of a rate cut in June and stated that she was confident that inflation was under control. This sounded like a strong endorsement of a rate cut next week.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel also signaled that a rate cut was coming in June, dismissing concerns over wage growth, which rose from 4.5% to 4.7%. Nagel stressed that a June cut did not signal the start of a series of cuts, as ECB decisions will depend on incoming data.
The eurozone releases the May inflation report on Friday, which isn’t expected to change expectations of a June rate cut. CPI fell to 2.4% y/y in April and is expected to tick higher to 2.5% in May.
EUR/USD has weak support at 1.0845. Below, there is support at 1.0806
There is resistance at 1.0886 and 1.0925
$WMT 10D, $56 incoming, Tower Top BreakdownTower Top Breakdown in the works. Seems like whatever or whenever it happens, it will be close to next Friday. Remain Bearish unless new highs are established. Seemingly easy Trade here. MACD in same positioning as well as RSI. Seems like WMT doesn't get much volume in general. Not necessarily a bad thing. Options could pay well here.
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: The end of the previous trading week was not in favor of the US dollar , which we were preparing for and talking about during the previous week. The beginning of this week will most likely maintain this bearish sentiment for the US dollar and a short-term strengthening is expected for its main competitors, at a minimum.
Against this background, for the euro we expect a re-test of the resistance area at the level of 1.09000. Most likely, the instrument will move to this resistance area as much as possible from the closing prices of the previous week (scenario №1) . If the American currency strengthens, a long position will be considered at the nearest support at 1.08000 (scenario №2).
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Policy Divergence: BoC and RBNZ Take Opposing PathsGreetings Traders,
In today's trading session, our focus is on NZDCAD, where we see a promising buying opportunity emerging around the 0.83500 zone. NZDCAD has been traversing a downtrend but is currently undergoing a correction phase, drawing nearer to the retrace area near the 0.83500 support and resistance zone.
Adding depth to our analysis, recent fundamental developments are worth noting. Just yesterday, the Canadian CPI figures came in softer than anticipated. Meanwhile, during the night, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) issued some notably hawkish guidance.
This sets an interesting stage: while the Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to initiate rate cuts come June, the RBNZ appears to be steering clear of such measures for the time being. This subtle policy divergence introduces a compelling dynamic that suggests NZDCAD may continue its upward trajectory.
In summary, the confluence of technical retracement and fundamental policy disparities presents an opportune moment for traders to consider a bullish stance on NZDCAD.
DOGE MONTHLY BREAKOUT? PLUS INV HEAD AND SHOULDERSObserved massive rally after the effects of the CPI report that surge BTC price past 6% and followed by other major coins. Now, I will tackle the possible BINANCE:DOGEUSDT breakout after the rally on the almost 2-month diagonal resistance trendline along with an inverse head and shoulders, a bullish pattern since the coin is on the downtrend that can be a sign of trend reversal for the coin.
Other details for the setup and the approach for DOGE will be discussed in the idea threads below. Stay tuned!
XAU/USD | GOLD OVER ALL PLAN ( SMART MONEY ) DECRYPTERS
Welcome to DECRYPTERS !
NOTE:- PLEASE READ FULL DESCRIPTION BEFORE CONCLUDING ANY THING
upon analyzing gold over all trendi is bullish due to several factors
why to buy gold ?
building narrative because of followings:-
1 - geo political situation
2- banks demands for gold
3- inflation issues in us
4- japan currency devaluing issue
5 -brics
6 -infaltonun certanity
7- gold silver ratio
smart money hates uncenrtanity , so they are buying alot of it
over all gold is bullsih in yearly / monthly /weekly charts ( for now)
Previously :-
from 2432 2277 -2295 were called and we took buy live on our yt from those levels
there was little hurdle at the area of 2313-2325 (as shown above in chart)
now the hurdle is flipped overcome we are expecting bullish prices on gold until new all time high
Forecasted gold projections based upon following :-
Gold buying reasons at level of (2360 - 2374)
1 - Downward tredn-line from previous all time high( shown in yellow color)
2- Two green horizontal lines (advanced smart money level)
3 - Bullish parallel channel (which supports the smart money level and trend line)
4- The white line is showing trajectory ( of the expected move)
5- Volume profile and Volume Analysis (VSA) Also supporting buying Auction
CORRELATION:-
1- Dxy losses recover from previous days causing gold to (range + bearish)
2 -us10 y recover its losses previous days causing gold to (range + bearish)
3- cpi and ppi data cool down effect
4 - No major news to make dxy $$ bearish until end of week( important point )
5 -Silver local top adding confluence as well
6- Gold vs silver ratio ( above 80 ) meaning very high demand for gold in metal industry
7- new war or tension news is expected to give gold strentgh soon( in macro picture )
ASTROLOGICAL ASPECT:-
as per astrology we are bullish on gold untill 21st of may ( approximate date)
what will happen after that ? ? will gold fall ? will gold rise ?~
Stay tuned with decrypters for the update
Thanks for reading the post and be with us till now , plz press like button if you like the post
"Regards Decrypters"
Strifor || GBPUSD-US CPIPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: The British currency is also expected to boost amid the publication of US CPI data . This is the most likely scenario and is indicated on the chart as scenario №1 . Login is expected just before the data is published. One can especially consider buy-position through pending orders if the price immediately falls to 1.25396 . Near this level, one can accumulate a buy-position with a target at the level of 1.27000 (scenario №2).
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || GOLD-US CPIPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: Before the publication of today's data on the US CPI , on gold , we have been following the previous trading idea that we gave at the beginning of the week. The price has already begun to move according to our scenario, but we must not forget about potential volatility amid the publication of today's data from the US.
For this metal, we expect an approach to the historical maximum at the level of 2431.590 , and most likely, in the very near future, we will easily approach this target.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || EURUSD-US CPIPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: It didn’t take long for us to realize our previous trading idea for the euro . At the moment, we have the fact that the target has been fixed. Today, the market's focus will be on the US CPI , against the backdrop of which we expect another short-term growth in favor of the main competitors of the US dollar.
The most likely scenario is an increase immediately after the publication of US inflation data (scenario №1). One can also consider buy-deal below current prices near the level of 1.07800 (scenario №2). We mark the target for short-term growth near the level of 1.09000, where the nearest resistance is located.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || SILVER-14/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Against the backdrop of the upcoming news week, metals in particular are best viewed from a medium-term perspective. Here, for silver , the most likely scenario seems to be the formation of accumulation and then growth towards a local maximum of 30 exactly ( scenario №1). We also designate Scenario №2, and it is mainly necessary as a plan B in case of increased volatility, which is likely to happen.
The best thing, in our opinion, would be to find a long entry point using a breakout strategy at the level of 28.69664.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Levels discussed on 16th May Livestream16th May
DXY: Retracing, needs to stay below 104.50. If support 103.990 broken, could trade down to 103.40
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6145 SL 20 TP 70 (Hesitation at 0.6180)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6710 SL 25 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 153.55 SL 35 TP 75
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2655 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY recovery)
EURUSD: Buy 1.09 SL 30 TP 70 (DXY weakness)
Sell 1.0850 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY recovery)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8960 SL 20 TP 65
USDCAD: Sell 1.36 SL 30 TP 50
Gold: Consolidating, needs to break 2400 to trade up to 2415