XAUUSD - SOLD THE NEWSWe sold the news this time. Entered a small short.
Just under our rule of 1:5 Risk Reward.
CPI
CPI Index Rises over 43% per decade on Average - Don't be Fooledby the Politicians, Talking heads and Bankers.
Governments can only Tax, Borrow & Spend
Central Banks can only Print & Lend.
If this index were to rise by the average of 43%
You are looking at the CPI Index hitting 372 by Jan 2030
There is every likelihood this decade, will be a higher than average inflation rise.
You must save in scarce Assets #Gold & #Bitcoin
You must continue to in invest in #Technology #ETH & #LINK come to mind.
Todays position on goldVow what a wonderful day
Again our golden area made us 210 pips from its potential area
Nice strategy
SELL EURUSDAhead of CPI I am looking to short EURUSD, my targets are below 1.07000 stops above 1.086 area. Use proper risk management. The box shapes drawn on my chart are from GOLD BACH. If you want to learn about it let me know. Cheers
XAUUSD Demand and Supply Zone | 4H TimeframeXAUUSD Demand and Supply Zone | 4H Timeframe
HEY Traders ! hope you are doing well
- This prediction is based on Technical Analysis
- Supply and Demand Zone path elaborated
- Gold touched the supply zone and clearly rejected to now in a bearish circle
- Usd High Impact news are Waiting to moving gold volatile
- Our Target and Our Trend as Shown in our Analysis
- We decided to stick with our idea until gold touched the points 2350-2345-2340.00
- Stick with Trend
- Don't be opposite from Trend
GOLD FORECASTGold New Forecast
The price of XAUUSD (Gold) is expected to be volatile today due to the release of the CPI news. The movement will depend on the results: if the CPI is higher than expected, it typically indicates rising inflation, which could lead to increased interest rates and potentially cause gold prices to fall. Conversely, if the CPI is lower than expected, it suggests lower inflation, which might result in lower interest rates and potentially drive gold prices up. The price will respond accordingly to the CPI results.
So, if the CPI is higher than expected, the price will try to reach 2364 & 2357 & 2344 then 2331. otherwise if the CPI is Less or equal to expectations will try to do a Bullish trend which is 2384 & 2392.
and the expectations are more positive, so it will effect a bearish trend to OANDA:XAUUSD
Key Levels
Bullish Line: 2384, 2392.
Pivot Line: 2374
Bearish Line: 2364, 2357, 2344, 2331
⭐️ XAU/USD : CPI is coming , Bull or Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart in the 2-hour timeframe, we observe that after the price drop to $2332, there was a demand surge, allowing the price to rise to higher levels as expected. After the price entered the Bearish BB zone at $2372, we saw a price drop to $2368. Currently, the price is trading around $2370, and in a few hours, we will have the important US CPI data. If the actual rate is higher than the forecasted rate, it could lead to a further drop in gold prices. Conversely, if the rate is lower than the forecasted rate, we might see a rebound in gold prices to levels above $2400. The supply zones are $2372 to $2378, $2389 to $2399, and $2409 to $2418. The demand levels are $2356 to $2361, $2332 to $2337, and $2306 to $2315.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Strifor || NZDUSD-14/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The short-term strengthening of the US dollar's main competitors is relevant, and the New Zealand dollar is no exception. It should even be noted that this currency pair is among the top for short-term growth today. Strengthening of the NZDUSD is expected towards the level of 0.60713 , as well as in the case of the Australian dollar, there is a possibility of more significant growth, however, there is no need to raise the target too much since in the medium term there will most likely be a downward reversal.
According to our main scenario №1 , we expect growth from the current ones, and we can safely consider buying right now. Scenario №2 is extremely unlikely, but nevertheless, we highlight it as an alternative.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || AUDUSD-14/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The current week will be the most intense compared to the previous one, as a number of important economic data are expected to be published. The focus will certainly be on the US CPI.
Against this background, we still adhere to the buy priority for the Australian dollar and expect growth to the maximum level of 0.66460 from current prices (scenario №1) . This level is the main target, although you can expect a slight rise a little higher as part of a false upward movement. In the longer term, we also believe that the currency pair will turn downward.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: According to the British pound , buyers continue to fight for the support area at the 1.25000 level, which is the key area at the moment. For the coming week, the buy-priority will remain relevant, but you need to be careful, especially in the middle of the week, when US inflation data will be published.
The likely best option for entering a long position is a trade on a breakdown of the level of 1.25396. This level is a local resistance, and if it is overcome, buyers can count on growth at least to the level of 1.26300 (scenario №1) . An alternative option is scenario №2 , where exactly the same breakout transaction is expected after testing the area of 1.24500 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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How CPI News Impacts Gold PricesGold prices are affected by Treasury yields and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. High inflation typically leads to higher Treasury yields due to low unemployment and an overheating economy, which can decrease gold's appeal due to rising unemployment, making gold more attractive as a safe investment. Thus, gold tends to decline with high Treasury yields in inflationary times and increase when Treasury yields fall during deflationary periods.
SPX500: Price discussion pre-US CPI dataToday's focus: SPX500
Pattern – Continuation
Support – 5211
Resistance – 5267
Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at SPX500 on its daily chart.
Today, we wonder if the SPX500 can maintain its current bullish bias and possibly test or break all-time highs. Yesterday, buyers fought back after the PPI data, helped by comments from Fed Chair Powell.
Will we see retail sales and US CPI match or drop below data that is mainly expected to come in lower? Will this back up comments that maintained buyer hopes yesterday?
On the other side of the coin, if data comes in higher, could this set off some sharp selling as buyers may find themselves in a bull trap?
It could be an interesting CPI data today.
Good trading.
What did Powell say and what did gold do? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed reservations about the trajectory of disinflation in the US during his recent remarks, stating, "My confidence in that is not as high as it was." Despite this, he indicated that further rate hikes were unlikely based on the data from the first quarter of the year.
Powell's comments largely echoed those made during his last press conference following the Federal Reserve's previous meeting.
Market sentiment regarding the Fed's rate decisions appears to be slightly adjusting though, particularly after the release of new data showing faster-than-expected increases in producer prices in April. Traders are now considering a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, down slightly from the 64% chance before Powells remarks and the Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
Following the release of the PPI data, the XAU/USD pair climbed nearly 0.8% to $2,357, with potential for further gains in upcoming trading sessions. Technical analysis indicates that the next obstacle for gold prices lies near trendline resistance at $2,370, while immediate support rests close to $2,320, followed by the 50-day Moving Average.
Market attention now turns to the release of consumer price data for April, scheduled for Wednesday.
Here's what Wall Street economists expects this week.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for continued patience in monitoring inflation trends during his remarks at the Foreign Bankers’ Association's annual meeting in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Powell highlighted that while there was some easing of inflation in the U.S. last year, the first quarter showed unexpectedly high inflation rates, which were not anticipated. Despite these challenges, he maintains a cautious optimism that inflation will gradually return to the Fed's target of 2% over the year, though he admitted his confidence has diminished somewhat following the recent data.
Powell concluded by stating that the central bank will closely observe incoming inflation data to determine its future monetary policy actions.
This week will see an increase in activity with the upcoming release of the U.S. April consumer price index on Wednesday, which is closely watched by economists focusing on potential changes in Federal Reserve policies, particularly the possibility of interest rate cuts before the end of the year.
Recent data has shown a disruption in the declining inflation trend from the first quarter, sparking concerns about persistently higher inflation rates and reduced likelihood of monetary easing, according to Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. In response to these concerns, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated two scenarios that could lead to rate cuts: a reassurance of low inflation rates or a sudden downturn in the labor market.
Key events this week include:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April: Scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Economists anticipate that the headline CPI inflation will increase by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, with the year-over-year rate possibly moderating to 3.4%, slightly down from 3.5% the previous month. The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, might rise by 0.3%, marking the lowest rate since December, with an annual pace expected to decline to 3.6%, a three-year low.
Retail Sales for April: Also set for Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, where retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.5%, following a strong 0.7% rise in March. Sales excluding autos might increase by just 0.2%, compared to a 1.1% increase the previous month. Adjustments to March's figures could be made, potentially affecting the April growth figures.
Weekly Jobless Claims: On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, jobless claims are anticipated to decrease by 12,000, offsetting more than half of the previous week's unexpected rise to 231,000, influenced by seasonal employment shifts in New York.
Overall, while inflation has shown signs of heating up unexpectedly in the first quarter, economists still forecast a downward trend for the year. The Philadelphia Fed's latest survey suggests that by the fourth quarter, headline inflation could slow to 2.5% annually, with core inflation at 2.7%.
AUD/USD gains ground ahead of wage growthThe Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6620 in the North American session at the time of writing.
Australia’s wage growth for the first quarter is expected to remain unchanged. Wages rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the highest since 2009, with most categories showing increases. On a quarterly basis, wage prices rose 1.9%, which was the lowest gain in three quarters. If the release is not within expectations, we could see a reaction from the Australian dollar.
Is the Reserve Bank of Australia considering a rate cut? The central bank hasn’t shown any rush to shift policy and held rates at 4.35% for a fourth straight time at last week’s meeting. The RBA has stressed that rate policy will be data-dependent and has made the battle against inflation its top priority.
A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range of 2-3% before 2025. Inflation has come down to 3.6% but the last phase of getting inflation within target could be the most difficult part, as the Federal Reserve has discovered. Unless inflation surprises with a sharp drop in the coming months, a rate cut is unlikely before November or early 2025.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at an event in Amsterdam later today and the markets will be looking for hints regarding a rate cut. The Fed has delayed plans to cut rates as the US economy remains resilient and inflation has unexpectedly accelerated. The US releases April inflation data this week and a drop in inflation would increase the likelihood of a rate cut in September. The US releases PPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% in April while CPI is projected to ease to 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April.
AUD/USD tested support at 0.6602 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6559
0.6645 and 0.6688 are the next resistance lines
Gold analysis for 13/05/24 & 14/05/24According to my analysis and according to what you taught me, Tamas :
Scenario 1 :
If CPI comes negative on Wednesday, it could lead to deflation concerns, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic activity and prevent deflationary pressures. A negative CPI could indicate a decrease in the general price level of goods and services, potentially signaling weak demand or economic contraction
A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar, as lower interest rates typically make a currency less attractive to investors seeking higher yields. This could lead to a depreciation of the dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies
Gold prices may rise in response to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Additionally, concerns about inflation and currency depreciation amid monetary easing measures could further support gold prices , Gold may Target 2394-2400
Scenario 2:
A positive CPI indicates an increase in the general price level of goods and services, suggesting inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about the purchasing power of the currency and potential future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation
If the PPI also shows an increase on Tuesday, it could reinforce inflationary expectations, indicating rising costs for producers. This might further support the case for potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary pressures
Technical Analysis :
We're currently in Correction Wave , and Expecting Price to Pump for Gold target 2394-2401
Advice : please always use a propre risk management this is my analyse and good luck
Make sure if you like my Analysis to boost up my post and Comment
EUR VS. USD, Traders @ Equilibrium?? Lets Navigate!Here I have EUR/USD on the Daily Chart!
This Spring of 2024 we can see Price of EUR/USD has kind of been "trapped" where you can see the Highs in March begin to follow a subtle Falling Resistance from the Local Resistance Zone, then CONFIRMED by the test of said trendline early April and NOW early May where we see Price has come to rest just below our Falling Resistance.
Countering that is the Rising Support from the Local Support Zone where Price tested three times in April.
Altogether, forming what looks to be a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern!!
-Basically showing us that traders are unsure where price may go, creating a point of equilibrium to where we eventually see a BREAK either BULLISH -or- BEARISH!
__ In the Event that the Symmetrical Triangle is BROKEN, I suspect we could see a potential 3%+ Price move in the direction of the BREAK given it is a TRUE BREAKOUT and not a FAKEOUT!
**This prediction sees Price testing the JULY/OCT levels of 2023 depending on which way we see the scale tip in strength between EUR and USD, making these levels our 1st Areas of TP!
Zones of Value:
July 2023 High Resistance ( 1.12298 - 1.11404 )
Local Resistance ( 1.10426 - 1.09812 )
Oct. 2023 Low Support ( 1.05167 - 1.04503 )
Local Support ( 1.07238 - 1.06601 )
Now fundamentally, DXY started this month with HOTTER than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and remarkable Manufacturing Prices but ended the first week with EXTREMELY poor Non-Farm Employment Change and Services PMI then to end last week with disappointing Unemployment Claims and UoM Consumer Sentiment
BUT
What's left to come this week may give us a clearer map to help us navigate this pair!!
USD-
PPI (Tues), CPI & Retail Sales (Wed), Unemployment Claims (Thur)
EUR-
ECB Financial Stability Review (Thur)
*More for EUR following week for news*
ISM GAUGES POINT TO HIGHER INFLATIONISM surveys show that prices are rising ; during April services and manufacturing prices advanced 10% on average.
The problem? Look at the chart comparing these price indexes to the traditional CPI inflation reading, ISMs are usually forward looking.
Inflation 2.0 is coming
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Las encuestas ISM muestran que los precios están subiendo, durante abril los precios de servicios y manufactura avanzaron 10% en promedio.
El problema? Mira el gráfico que compara estos índices de precios con la lectura tradicional de inflación CPI, los ISM suelen ser prospectivos.
Inflación 2.0 está por llegar
SPY Daily - Rising WedgeTreading lightly here as the SPY looks to be right at the end of a bearish rising wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave heading into a major week economically speaking. On Wednesday we have retail sales numbers, core CPI, and Core CPI YOY coming out, followed by jobless claims on Thursday. Will be watching closely, some support levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime, bearish and hedged- (Original Chart Attached Below)
- Rising Wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave
- Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI
- Sitting right on its 50-Day SMA
- Bearish ABCD Elliot Wave
Capitec Vuvuzela with bullish bias & strong fundaments to R2,485Capitec has been in this Broadening Pattern (Vuvuzela) formation since November 2023.
It breaks into higher highs and lower lows. But the overall momentum and trend channel is up.
It will continue trading in this range until we get a breakout of the resistance or support. My bet is it will first trade to the top of the range at R2,485.92.
Capitec has always been the outlier compared to the other banks with very little correlation. WHen it does well, it runs up regadless what the bigger banks are doing.
Also fundamentally, it doesn't seem to follow suit with the Big 5.
Firstly, Capitec announced a substantial 15% growth in headline earnings, which reached R9.7 billion.
This increase was driven by growth across various sectors of the bank, including a notable 124% profit surge in its business banking sector and a significant increase in net lending, investment, and insurance income
Also, Capitec has been actively investing in innovative digital solutions and client rewards programs, which have contributed to its strong performance.
They introduced a variety of digital payment solutions like Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay with zero transaction fees, as well as their own secure online payment tool, Capitec Pay.
So ye, big up to an innovative unclipped wings bank like Capitec.
GBP/USD Outlook: Waiting for CPI
Hello traders,
As we approach tomorrow's release of CPI data for both GBP and EUR, it's likely that the markets will adopt a wait-and-see approach until then.
Considering the longer-term perspective, GBP appears to be oversold within a bearish channel. As such, it's advisable to avoid short-term trades with high risk exposure.
Keep an eye on the yellow trend line, as a break above it could present opportunities for long trades.
Trading Scenarios:
The UK CPI is estimated to be around 3.1%. Any bullish surprise, particularly between 3.2% to 3.3%, may offer a favorable zone around 1.2482 for shorting the pair. However, a figure exceeding 3.5% could signal a potential change in trend, prompting us to seek technical reasons to long the pair.
Conversely, any bearish surprise has the potential to breach key levels and invalidate the bearish channel. In such a scenario, I'll promptly announce new scenarios.
In the absence of any surprises, it's prudent to explore zones closer to the current price for shorting opportunities.
Stay informed and remain adaptable to evolving market conditions.
Best regards,
Eurozone Core & Headline CPI overviewEUROZONE CPI
Eurozone Headline and Core CPI for October both came in as expected (decrease)
Eurozone Headline CPI:
MoM – Actual 0.1% / Exp. 0.1% / Prev. 0.3%
YoY – Actual 2.9% / Exp. 2.9% / Prev. 4.3% (purple on chart)
Eurozone Core CPI:
MoM – Actual 0.2% / Exp. 0.2% / Prev. 0.2%
YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.5% (blue on chart)
The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 0 – 2% from 2015 – 2020 below.
GBP/USD: CPI Announced at 3.2%Traders,
NOTE Don't forget about LTF confirmations,
The CPI data has been announced at 3.2%, marking a 0.1% surprise. This development adds a layer of significance to the current market dynamics.
In addition to the previously highlighted zones, such as the area around 1.246, it's essential to keep an eye on the EMA50. This moving average could serve as another valuable level to consider for shorting opportunities.
As always, remain vigilant and adaptable in your trading strategies, especially in response to unexpected data releases like this one.
Best regards,
