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Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: According to the British pound , buyers continue to fight for the support area at the 1.25000 level, which is the key area at the moment. For the coming week, the buy-priority will remain relevant, but you need to be careful, especially in the middle of the week, when US inflation data will be published. The likely best option for entering a long position is a trade on a breakdown of the level of 1.25396. This level is a local resistance, and if it is overcome, buyers can count on growth at least to the level of 1.26300 (scenario №1) . An alternative option is scenario №2 , where exactly the same breakout transaction is expected after testing the area of 1.24500 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
SPX500: Price discussion pre-US CPI dataToday's focus: SPX500 Pattern – Continuation Support – 5211 Resistance – 5267 Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at SPX500 on its daily chart. Today, we wonder if the SPX500 can maintain its current bullish bias and possibly test or break all-time highs. Yesterday, buyers fought back after the PPI data, helped by comments from Fed Chair Powell. Will we see retail sales and US CPI match or drop below data that is mainly expected to come in lower? Will this back up comments that maintained buyer hopes yesterday? On the other side of the coin, if data comes in higher, could this set off some sharp selling as buyers may find themselves in a bull trap? It could be an interesting CPI data today. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by Eightcap
What did Powell say and what did gold do? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed reservations about the trajectory of disinflation in the US during his recent remarks, stating, "My confidence in that is not as high as it was." Despite this, he indicated that further rate hikes were unlikely based on the data from the first quarter of the year. Powell's comments largely echoed those made during his last press conference following the Federal Reserve's previous meeting. Market sentiment regarding the Fed's rate decisions appears to be slightly adjusting though, particularly after the release of new data showing faster-than-expected increases in producer prices in April. Traders are now considering a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, down slightly from the 64% chance before Powells remarks and the Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Following the release of the PPI data, the XAU/USD pair climbed nearly 0.8% to $2,357, with potential for further gains in upcoming trading sessions. Technical analysis indicates that the next obstacle for gold prices lies near trendline resistance at $2,370, while immediate support rests close to $2,320, followed by the 50-day Moving Average. Market attention now turns to the release of consumer price data for April, scheduled for Wednesday.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Here's what Wall Street economists expects this week.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for continued patience in monitoring inflation trends during his remarks at the Foreign Bankers’ Association's annual meeting in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Powell highlighted that while there was some easing of inflation in the U.S. last year, the first quarter showed unexpectedly high inflation rates, which were not anticipated. Despite these challenges, he maintains a cautious optimism that inflation will gradually return to the Fed's target of 2% over the year, though he admitted his confidence has diminished somewhat following the recent data. Powell concluded by stating that the central bank will closely observe incoming inflation data to determine its future monetary policy actions. This week will see an increase in activity with the upcoming release of the U.S. April consumer price index on Wednesday, which is closely watched by economists focusing on potential changes in Federal Reserve policies, particularly the possibility of interest rate cuts before the end of the year. Recent data has shown a disruption in the declining inflation trend from the first quarter, sparking concerns about persistently higher inflation rates and reduced likelihood of monetary easing, according to Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. In response to these concerns, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated two scenarios that could lead to rate cuts: a reassurance of low inflation rates or a sudden downturn in the labor market. Key events this week include: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April: Scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Economists anticipate that the headline CPI inflation will increase by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, with the year-over-year rate possibly moderating to 3.4%, slightly down from 3.5% the previous month. The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, might rise by 0.3%, marking the lowest rate since December, with an annual pace expected to decline to 3.6%, a three-year low. Retail Sales for April: Also set for Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, where retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.5%, following a strong 0.7% rise in March. Sales excluding autos might increase by just 0.2%, compared to a 1.1% increase the previous month. Adjustments to March's figures could be made, potentially affecting the April growth figures. Weekly Jobless Claims: On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, jobless claims are anticipated to decrease by 12,000, offsetting more than half of the previous week's unexpected rise to 231,000, influenced by seasonal employment shifts in New York. Overall, while inflation has shown signs of heating up unexpectedly in the first quarter, economists still forecast a downward trend for the year. The Philadelphia Fed's latest survey suggests that by the fourth quarter, headline inflation could slow to 2.5% annually, with core inflation at 2.7%.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by SroshMayi
AUD/USD gains ground ahead of wage growthThe Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6620 in the North American session at the time of writing. Australia’s wage growth for the first quarter is expected to remain unchanged. Wages rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the highest since 2009, with most categories showing increases. On a quarterly basis, wage prices rose 1.9%, which was the lowest gain in three quarters. If the release is not within expectations, we could see a reaction from the Australian dollar. Is the Reserve Bank of Australia considering a rate cut? The central bank hasn’t shown any rush to shift policy and held rates at 4.35% for a fourth straight time at last week’s meeting. The RBA has stressed that rate policy will be data-dependent and has made the battle against inflation its top priority. A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range of 2-3% before 2025. Inflation has come down to 3.6% but the last phase of getting inflation within target could be the most difficult part, as the Federal Reserve has discovered. Unless inflation surprises with a sharp drop in the coming months, a rate cut is unlikely before November or early 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at an event in Amsterdam later today and the markets will be looking for hints regarding a rate cut. The Fed has delayed plans to cut rates as the US economy remains resilient and inflation has unexpectedly accelerated. The US releases April inflation data this week and a drop in inflation would increase the likelihood of a rate cut in September. The US releases PPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% in April while CPI is projected to ease to 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6602 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6559 0.6645 and 0.6688 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Gold analysis for 13/05/24 & 14/05/24According to my analysis and according to what you taught me, Tamas : Scenario 1 : If CPI comes negative on Wednesday, it could lead to deflation concerns, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic activity and prevent deflationary pressures. A negative CPI could indicate a decrease in the general price level of goods and services, potentially signaling weak demand or economic contraction A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar, as lower interest rates typically make a currency less attractive to investors seeking higher yields. This could lead to a depreciation of the dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies Gold prices may rise in response to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Additionally, concerns about inflation and currency depreciation amid monetary easing measures could further support gold prices , Gold may Target 2394-2400 Scenario 2: A positive CPI indicates an increase in the general price level of goods and services, suggesting inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about the purchasing power of the currency and potential future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation If the PPI also shows an increase on Tuesday, it could reinforce inflationary expectations, indicating rising costs for producers. This might further support the case for potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary pressures Technical Analysis : We're currently in Correction Wave , and Expecting Price to Pump for Gold target 2394-2401 Advice : please always use a propre risk management this is my analyse and good luck Make sure if you like my Analysis to boost up my post and Comment
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TraderFa9ir
EUR VS. USD, Traders @ Equilibrium?? Lets Navigate!Here I have EUR/USD on the Daily Chart! This Spring of 2024 we can see Price of EUR/USD has kind of been "trapped" where you can see the Highs in March begin to follow a subtle Falling Resistance from the Local Resistance Zone, then CONFIRMED by the test of said trendline early April and NOW early May where we see Price has come to rest just below our Falling Resistance. Countering that is the Rising Support from the Local Support Zone where Price tested three times in April. Altogether, forming what looks to be a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern!! -Basically showing us that traders are unsure where price may go, creating a point of equilibrium to where we eventually see a BREAK either BULLISH -or- BEARISH! __ In the Event that the Symmetrical Triangle is BROKEN, I suspect we could see a potential 3%+ Price move in the direction of the BREAK given it is a TRUE BREAKOUT and not a FAKEOUT! **This prediction sees Price testing the JULY/OCT levels of 2023 depending on which way we see the scale tip in strength between EUR and USD, making these levels our 1st Areas of TP! Zones of Value: July 2023 High Resistance ( 1.12298 - 1.11404 ) Local Resistance ( 1.10426 - 1.09812 ) Oct. 2023 Low Support ( 1.05167 - 1.04503 ) Local Support ( 1.07238 - 1.06601 ) Now fundamentally, DXY started this month with HOTTER than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and remarkable Manufacturing Prices but ended the first week with EXTREMELY poor Non-Farm Employment Change and Services PMI then to end last week with disappointing Unemployment Claims and UoM Consumer Sentiment BUT What's left to come this week may give us a clearer map to help us navigate this pair!! USD- PPI (Tues), CPI & Retail Sales (Wed), Unemployment Claims (Thur) EUR- ECB Financial Stability Review (Thur) *More for EUR following week for news*
by Novi_Fibonacci
ISM GAUGES POINT TO HIGHER INFLATIONISM surveys show that prices are rising ; during April services and manufacturing prices advanced 10% on average. The problem? Look at the chart comparing these price indexes to the traditional CPI inflation reading, ISMs are usually forward looking. Inflation 2.0 is coming ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Las encuestas ISM muestran que los precios están subiendo, durante abril los precios de servicios y manufactura avanzaron 10% en promedio. El problema? Mira el gráfico que compara estos índices de precios con la lectura tradicional de inflación CPI, los ISM suelen ser prospectivos. Inflación 2.0 está por llegar
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by yamilbocanegra
1
SPY Daily - Rising WedgeTreading lightly here as the SPY looks to be right at the end of a bearish rising wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave heading into a major week economically speaking. On Wednesday we have retail sales numbers, core CPI, and Core CPI YOY coming out, followed by jobless claims on Thursday. Will be watching closely, some support levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime, bearish and hedged- (Original Chart Attached Below) - Rising Wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave - Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI - Sitting right on its 50-Day SMA - Bearish ABCD Elliot Wave
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
Capitec Vuvuzela with bullish bias & strong fundaments to R2,485Capitec has been in this Broadening Pattern (Vuvuzela) formation since November 2023. It breaks into higher highs and lower lows. But the overall momentum and trend channel is up. It will continue trading in this range until we get a breakout of the resistance or support. My bet is it will first trade to the top of the range at R2,485.92. Capitec has always been the outlier compared to the other banks with very little correlation. WHen it does well, it runs up regadless what the bigger banks are doing. Also fundamentally, it doesn't seem to follow suit with the Big 5. Firstly, Capitec announced a substantial 15% growth in headline earnings, which reached R9.7 billion. This increase was driven by growth across various sectors of the bank, including a notable 124% profit surge in its business banking sector and a significant increase in net lending, investment, and insurance income​ Also, Capitec has been actively investing in innovative digital solutions and client rewards programs, which have contributed to its strong performance. They introduced a variety of digital payment solutions like Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay with zero transaction fees, as well as their own secure online payment tool, Capitec Pay. So ye, big up to an innovative unclipped wings bank like Capitec.
JSE:CPILong
by Timonrosso
GBP/USD Outlook: Waiting for CPI Hello traders, As we approach tomorrow's release of CPI data for both GBP and EUR, it's likely that the markets will adopt a wait-and-see approach until then. Considering the longer-term perspective, GBP appears to be oversold within a bearish channel. As such, it's advisable to avoid short-term trades with high risk exposure. Keep an eye on the yellow trend line, as a break above it could present opportunities for long trades. Trading Scenarios: The UK CPI is estimated to be around 3.1%. Any bullish surprise, particularly between 3.2% to 3.3%, may offer a favorable zone around 1.2482 for shorting the pair. However, a figure exceeding 3.5% could signal a potential change in trend, prompting us to seek technical reasons to long the pair. Conversely, any bearish surprise has the potential to breach key levels and invalidate the bearish channel. In such a scenario, I'll promptly announce new scenarios. In the absence of any surprises, it's prudent to explore zones closer to the current price for shorting opportunities. Stay informed and remain adaptable to evolving market conditions. Best regards,
Short
by AliSignals
Eurozone Core & Headline CPI overviewEUROZONE CPI Eurozone Headline and Core CPI for October both came in as expected (decrease) Eurozone Headline CPI: MoM – Actual 0.1% / Exp. 0.1% / Prev. 0.3% YoY – Actual 2.9% / Exp. 2.9% / Prev. 4.3% (purple on chart) Eurozone Core CPI: MoM – Actual 0.2% / Exp. 0.2% / Prev. 0.2% YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.5% (blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 0 – 2% from 2015 – 2020 below.
ECONOMICS:EUCIR
by PukaCharts
1
GBP/USD: CPI Announced at 3.2%Traders, NOTE Don't forget about LTF confirmations, The CPI data has been announced at 3.2%, marking a 0.1% surprise. This development adds a layer of significance to the current market dynamics. In addition to the previously highlighted zones, such as the area around 1.246, it's essential to keep an eye on the EMA50. This moving average could serve as another valuable level to consider for shorting opportunities. As always, remain vigilant and adaptable in your trading strategies, especially in response to unexpected data releases like this one. Best regards,
Short
by AliSignals
CPI NEWS ANALYSIS MOVE ✅✅traders Gold price is ready to fly My dear subscribers My technical analysis is for Gold below The price is coming around a solid key Level 2346 Bis_ Bullish Gold market price now 2346 Support zone. 2335 1st Target 2400 2nd Target 2430 Technical indicators Pivot point low anticipates a potential price reversal Super trend shows a clear buy giving a Perfect indicators convergence perfect Indicators convergence Give us like and comments support us
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJoseph_7
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024 Economic Data & Interest Rates Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns. High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation. Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts. Earnings & Bank Stocks Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector. Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Market Outlook & Analysis S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance. April historically a bullish month. Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus. Global Markets Japan's 5-year bond yield surges. Singapore's GDP growth remains modest. Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams. Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024 Interest Rates & Inflation Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts. Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further. Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high. Oil, China & Global Markets Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel. China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations. Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain. US Labor Market & Stock Performance Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience. S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains. Banking Regulations & Debt Relief UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans. US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries. ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings ECB moves closer to a rate cut. Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: In the KOG report on Sunday we gave the extension levels of 2365 and 2372 as bullish targets which as we can see we're extending in to and completed one of them. Yesterday we said unless we broke below the bias level we were likely to take liquidity from higher again, so put caution on the short trades. Again, the opportunity presented itself to long the market which we gladly took for a level to level red box trade adding to the other pairs that hit TP's making this one of the biggest Months so far in terms of completed targets and pip capture in Camelot. For that reason, we're going to take it easy now and wait for CPI unless a clean opportunity arises. So, what now? For the remainder of the session and the Asian session we have resistance now 2350-55 which if we manage to hold could give us the potential swing down into the support levels 2330 and below that our bias level 2320! Break above, and we have added a new level for everyone as the potential target region before another expected RIP. We've left the original chart illustration from Sunday's KOG Report as we did say there will be an extension of the move, so for now we'll stick with it unless anything changes tomorrow. Please remember, pre-event price action will entail choppy market movement and conflicting patterns as well as the potential small range forming. Please be cautious on your trading! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
7
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Despite Friday's strong labor market data, the US dollar retains sell-priority, which means buy-priority for most of the American currency's main competitors. The euro is at the top of this list to buy against the US dollar . Here, for most of this week, we highlight two scenarios, and the more likely scenario №1 assumes an increase to the maximum from current prices. The growth target is located at the level of 1.09000 , where we also set the target for scenario №2 , which involves buying from the support area of 1.08000 . Most likely, updating the previous week’s high is the key task of buyers, after which there is a high probability of the start of a deeper corrective local movement towards the level of 1.08000 and below. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GBPUSD-10/04/2024Preferred direction: Neutral Comment: The British currency perfectly worked out the scenario that we set at the beginning of the week, and all long trades were closed. At the moment, short-term strengthening is expected for the instrument, including, most likely, during the US CPI . However, just like the euro , a fall is expected here in the longer term. Particular attention will be focused on the level of 1.27000 after the publication of inflation data in the United States. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
by Strifor
1