Spy / Oil / Natural Gas - Market Analysis CPI comes in hotter than consensus.
IWM slaughtered / QQQ under pressure / SPY closes negative.
Yields & Dollar ripping.
Oil ripping / Natural Gas selloff.
Are we entering a new reflation trend?
CPI
EUR/USD to slump again after ECB decision? The EUR/USD plunged after the hotter-than-expected CPI, as traders reevaluated the odds of a Fed rate cut in June.
EUR/USD has now perhaps broken out of the range of its significant Simple Moving Averages.
Now we might get another pushdown in the lead up to or after the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. The April 2 swing low of 1.07245 may prove pivotal. The previous session's decline was the biggest single-day decline since March 2023, so it will be interesting to see if this bearishness has been exhausted.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged but perhaps point towards the start of its own rate cutting cycle in June. ECB officials have already begun discussing this timeline, so tomorrow’s announcement might lack the bite of a CPI print.
Instead, traders could look for clues on future ECB policy during Christine Lagarde’s press conference following the rate decision.
Australian dollar slides on hot US inflation reportThe Australian dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6515, down 1.7%.
The US consumer price index has accelerated for a second straight month. The March CPI rose 3.5%, up from 3.2% in February and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest inflation rate since September. On a monthly basis, CPI remained unchanged in March at 0.4%, higher than the market estimate of 0.4%. The increase in inflation was mainly due to rising energy and shelter costs.
Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, was unchanged at 3.8% in March and just above the market estimate of 3.7%. Monthly, core CPI rose 0.4%, matching the previous two months and above the market estimate of 0.3%. US inflation has accelerated for a second straight month, a reminder that although inflation appears under control, the final sprint to the 2% target will be a challenge for the Federal Reserve.
The strong inflation report has pushed back expectations on the timing of a first rate cut, propelling the US dollar higher against the major currencies and sending the Australian dollar reeling. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has dropped from above 50% before the inflation report to 23% afterwards. Investors don’t consider a rate cut to be likely until September.
In Australia, consumer inflation expectations will be released Thursday. The forecast for April stands at 4.1%, down from 4.3% in March, which was the lowest level since October 2021. As well, China releases CPI, which is expected to decline by 0.5% in March, down from 1% in February. A reading below zero would point to deflation and weakness in China’s economy.
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6560 and is putting pressure on support at 0.6500
0.6638 and 0.6698 are the next resistance lines
JPY has had 180 next few years written over it for a while nowI wasn't going to post about this one as I imagine it's being covered by everyone what with the captain obvious setup on a basic horizontal but since I've covered the Yen before I may as well
I haven't re-visted this chart properly since I made some calls about that blue broadening wedge a few years back and the initial 152 resistance (see the related posts below) but one of these days in the not too distant future I will
The cyan channel that I spotted out when I looked at it last looks like it's the upper half of a bigger channel
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Gold on CPIGold on CPI, selling off in line with the bearish data outcome, managing risk and adding to the position to breakeven while below key daily and weekly levels.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve.
CPI Data and Impact:
CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations.
Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts.
This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major).
Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major).
Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more.
Trading Strategy
CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly.
Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs.
Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI.
Bull Case
Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely.
Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels.
Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market.
News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024
CPI Impact on Markets
Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions.
Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations.
Treasury Rates & Fed Policy
US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns.
Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts.
Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls.
Individual Stocks
Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears.
Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor.
Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!
GBPUSD AHEAD OF TODAY’S CPI DATA RELEASEPrice currently trades at $1.26972 level. I anticipate a correction ( beArish move ) to 1.26435. Since price is closer to previous day high, I’d be looking for a sell opportunity. Take profit will be at 1.26435 (previous day low)
THE KOG REPORT -CPIQuick update on the charts pre-event.
We'll keep it simple as for this, there is likely to be a lot of volume entering the markets on the release, and the movement can be extreme. A lot of traders are expecting this to pullback, and they may get the move, however, they could surprise everyone and continue this move to the upside before then bringing it down.
We have added our basic intra-day levels as well as the hots spots on the chart. We'll be looking for RIPs at the levels.
Immediate support stands at 2340 and below that 2320 which is our bias level, which if broken you can see where they can take the price. That's where we feel opportunities will present themselves to long the market.
Immediate resistance stands at 2380-5 and above that 2390-5, if broken, you can see where they can take the price before any attempt on the pullback short!
We'll stick with extreme levels, or, wait for the move to finish before we get involved. No need to throw ego's into calling the move this time as this one is an important one!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Strifor || GOLD-10/04/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The trading idea for gold , which was given at the beginning of the week, is still relevant in the middle of the week, when the market is looking forward to the publication of US inflation data . For gold , we are considering a medium-term outlook, which is highly likely to work out in favor of the seller. The most likely scenario №1 involves an entry near the level of 2380 . However, it should be noted that taking a short position from current levels is also relevant, but only within the framework of a conservative entry.
The target for a fall is at level 2280 . There is potential for a fall even lower.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || AUDUSD-09/04/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Medium-term long positions for the AUDUSD currency pair are active, according to our previous trading idea for this instrument. In addition, short-term prospects also encourage active purchases, and with the opening of the European session, one can take a closer look at longs, especially those who did not manage to enter earlier, as we wrote about in the previous trading idea for this instrument.
The most likely scenario №1 assumes maximum growth from current prices. One can also consider entering through a pending order, placing it just above yesterday's and today's highs. Scenario №2 is unlikely, but we will also be ready to use it. We do not set the growth target above the level of 0.66458 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: Visually, the technical situations for the euro and pound look as similar as possible to each other. Here, too, the buy-priority remains, and the nearest target for this week is located at the level of 1.27000 . The growth potential is even higher, but setting a target above the level of 1.28000 would be a rather aggressive setting.
We have indicated the most likely price movement within scenario №1 on the chart. A less likely scenario №2 involves a preliminary re-testing of the support area at the level of 1.26000 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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EURUSD - APRIL 10, 2024 - SHORTHere is my bias for EURUSD, we have an equal low and I am anticipating for price to move and clear liquidity above the Asian high. In my POI is an FVG from the breaker block that failed to hold to push price higher and creating a structure shift and also an FVG that caused the structure shift.
NDQ100 (Nasdaq) Price Breakdown Pre-CPI
Today's focus: Nasdaq
Pattern – Range
Support – 17,832
Resistance – 18,355
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the Nasdaq daily.
Price remains range-bound. Do traders feel today's CPI will be bearish or bullish?
Yesterday, buyers showed some strength, stopping a bear move and reversing losses. Could good news on the CPI and minutes front maintain buyer control?
We have run over the primary levels and are currently holding the price. Depending on what we see from the CPI, could we see a new break that is lower or higher? Traders also have to be aware of false breakouts.
Good trading.
USDCAD: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: USDCAD
Pattern – Heavy Resistance
Support – 1.3514, 1.3454
Resistance – 1.3602
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at USDCAD daily.
What are we discussing and asking today after looking at USDCAD?
Will current heavy resistance contnue to block buyers? Does price have enough momentum in its current bull channel? Will this week's data and news be enough of an influence to set off a new break lower or higher?
Key news, US CPI, PPI, Fed meeting minutes. Canadian interest rate decision.
Good trading.
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week
The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data.
Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June.
Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.
In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time.
In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
Last Leg (Update) - USDCHF Year So FarHey everyone!!
Here I talk about USDCHF and give a little update on my Trade Idea "Last Leg To The Finish Line"
Since it went over so well and continuing to follow suit, I wanted to do a Video Update on the idea to give a little insight on what I was seeing as the pair unfolded for the year and what I'm looking for in the near future!!
Please let me know what you think and thank you so much for all the Support!!
.. It all started with a little Double Bottom on the Hourly Chart
EUR/USD Weekly Analysis: Short Opportunity with Dual Setups
Traders,
Expanding on our EUR/USD analysis, I've integrated two distinct setups:
Significant Support: Daily chart analysis reveals robust support levels.
Bearish Trend: The LR channel indicates a prevailing bearish trend.
Key Shorting Zone: A notable cluster formed by the Weekly Pivot and Last Week's POC presents an excellent opportunity to consider short positions.
Considering these setups:
The first setup entails a SL placement just above this week's R1 and last week's reversal point.
The second setup involves a SL positioned just above the POC.
Remember, these plans are contingent upon market conditions and may adapt in response to surprises from Wednesday's EURO CPI release and FED Chair Jerome Powell's speech.
Stay adaptable and remain vigilant in your trading endeavors.
Best regards,
House Prices have likely reached a topParty's over. Now comes the bill.
Housing prices have experienced an artificial inflated price surge from march 2020 that needs to be corrected.
RSI sell signal
MACD just crossed the signal and it's bound to change direction.
Stochastic RSI at virtual 0 also signals a possible change to a bear market that is still yet to occur, which often happens at a second bounce to a lower high.
First target is 345. Using 2008 as reference price index can go as low as 310, to the 0.38 retracement, however back then - from the shock reaction to the bubble bursting - we didn't experience the recession we would have had if the Fed didn't eased the economy, quantitatively speaking, if you know what I mean.
If the Fed lets the house market drive its natural course, and if we experience a deflationary economy in the mean time, I wouldn't be surprised if we went as low as 290 or 260 on a longer term.
DYOR
AUDUSD: Bearish Triangle Pointing Lower, Dovish RBA? During the overnight Asian session, there was a release of Australian CPI data, indicating that inflation remains stable at 3.4%, which is slightly below the expected 3.5%. Consequently, we can anticipate that this news could potentially drive the Aussie lower on maybe dovish RBA, who may try to follow other dovish CBs.
From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking bearish pattern; its an A-B-C-D-E, possibly in already late stages. However, the ideal resistance for a wave E could still be a bit higher, around 0.6580 or so. Nevertheless, if we witness a break below 0.65, I believe that the decline could immediately resume toward the lows seen in March.
Grega
Plans for the US FOMC laterMarch 20th (FOMC in Mind)
DXY: Consolidate along 103.80, could break lower briefly, overall trade higher to 104.50 resistance.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6060 SL 25 TP 65 (Counter Trend)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6500 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: Sell 150.55 SL 40 TP 180
GBPUSD: Straddle Buy 1.2740 SL 25 TP 75 or Sell 1.2690 SL 30 TP 90
EURUSD: Test and reject 38.2%, Sell 1.0870 SL 20 TP 65
USDCHF: Buy 0.8905 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Buy 1.3625 SL 20 TP 85
Gold: Below 2145 could trade down to 2125 (DXY strength dependent)
Capitec fakeout and waiting for conservative buy levelWe saw Capitec form a W Formation. The price broke above the neckline and then made a fakeout.
Now it will be testing the uptrend support line before further upside to come.
I am bullish cautiously, but we still need the demand levels to pick up.
The target will then be R2,485.00
LINKUSDT|Important areas and roadmapHi guys
You can see the popular currency chart link in the daily time frame.
I have identified the important areas of supply and demand for you.
Although we have crossed the range area and we have a close candle above this area, but it is placed on an important daily supply area and also the return candle has stabilized.
To ensure the continuation of the uptrend, we need to wait for the daily supply area to break.
In the second scenario, we can enter selling positions in small time frames by seeing reversal patterns.
For the growth of the link, if he gives us a confirmation, we can expect to go up to the target (25.6-2703).
SUPPLY ZONE (17.2-18.2) - (17.8-18.8) - (25.6-27.3)
DEMAND ZONE (15-15.5) - (13.5-14.5) - (11.7-12.3)
EURUSD: Addressing Temporary WeaknessGreetings Traders,
Bullish Channel: We're currently observing a bullish channel, with the price nearing its ceiling.
Key Levels: Pay attention to the concise of this month's R1, which has been broken, and the VAH of volume profile. These levels are pivotal for longer-term long positions and suggest refraining from short-term shorts.
Temporary Weak Bearish Phase: Despite a temporary weak bearish phase, expectations point to a strong rise by the middle of next week.
LTF Analysis: On lower time frames, watch for deeper corrections, offering opportunities for short trades.
CPI News Impact: Stay updated on CPI News, as surprises here could alter market dynamics significantly.
Wishing you profitable trades ahead!
Warm regards,
