CPINV.BR likely to struggle between 26 and 28TLDR: maintaining bearish bias unless reinstate above 28, expecting it to go lower first before it can go higher
EW interpretation:
On the monthly chart there were visually 3 waves up before the covid crash. Based on the purple fibs, one can also argue we have already seen a 5 waves top.
In both case, the (A) wave almost perfectly hit 0.618 retracement and severely damaged the immediate potential for a higher high. Despite the strong recovery of (B) wave, the downtrend continues likely until the (C) wave is complete.
A drop under 21.45 can confirm 3 of (C) is indeed in progress, while a pop above 28.80 will invalidate the immediate bearish set up.
Technicals:
Despite decent earning report and strong balance sheet, downward pressure remains.
The "rally" in the last few sessions from 22 to 25 looks more like a rebounce due to oversold condition, as volume profile suggests a stronger resistance between 26 and 28.
While the weekly technicals just peeked above the downward trendline as shown above, the monthly's remain firmly under it and the daily technicals are entering overbought zone.
These readings align with the primary EW assumption above, suggesting the rebounce might be stopped soon and the downtrend resumes.
Daily chart:
Monthly chart:
Also impacting sentiment:
- Turmoil in the EU Elderly Care industry
- Broad EU market downtrend
Good company nonetheless for the longer term.
EPRA EPS: 1.06(2021), 1.15(exp.2022)
Dividend: 0.87(2021), 0.94(exp.2022)
