$BTC/USDT MAJOR PUMP? or MAJOR DUMP?BTC, the worlds biggest and fastest growing coin. With a market cap in the Trillions, we are facing a major moment.
Will price dump? or will it pump and go above and beyond.
Lets find out in this analysis!
1. Trend Overview
HTF Bullish:
Price remains above the long-term bullish trendline, showing strong macro support.
Recent price action is consolidating within a major supply zone and liquidity cluster — signaling indecision before a breakout or breakdown.
📈 2. OBV (On-Balance Volume) Analysis
OBV is coiling in a symmetrical triangle, indicating a volume squeeze.
This tightening range typically precedes a major breakout or breakdown, matching the price consolidation near resistance.
🔄 Market Structure
Price has formed a potential top just under the supply/liquidity zone (~$110,000–$112,000).
Swing High is defined just below $112K.
Key structure zones are:
Resistance zone at current levels.
Support zones:
1D FVG ($97K) and Weekly FVG ($87K–$93K)
🟪 Supply & Demand Zones
Supply Zone: $100k - $112k — multiple rejections here indicate this is a key short-term ceiling.
Demand Zone: Deep support between $50-$57K, aligns with trendline and historical value area.
🔵 Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
1D FVG: $97K area — may act as magnet if price breaks below resistance.
1W FVG: $87K–$93K — stronger structural level to watch.
If both are filled, price may meet the bullish trendline around $90K.
🧠 Liquidity Zones
Above current price: ~$112K is marked as a liquidity grab area — stop hunts may occur before major reversal.
Below: FVG zones could trigger a liquidity sweep downwards before reversal.
🔴 Volume Profile
Strong high-volume node (HVN) around $80K–$97K: acceptance zone, likely to act as magnetic support.
Above $110K is a low-volume node (LVN): if broken cleanly, price may accelerate quickly toward $120K+.
✅ Bullish Scenario
Break above $112K → sweep liquidity → continuation toward $120K–$125K. (Price Discovery)
OBV breakout upwards would confirm.
Hold above FVG 1D if retested = healthy bullish continuation structure.
❌ Bearish Scenario
Rejection at supply → drop to FVG 1D ($97K), then potentially Weekly FVG (~$93K).
If OBV breaks downward, it confirms bearish volume divergence.
Breakdown below trendline could target deeper into demand zone (~$70K+).
📌 Summary
Bias: Neutral-bullish short term, bullish macro (above trendline).
Key Breakout Level: $112K.
Critical Support: $91K–$97K (FVG cluster).
Confirmation: OBV breakout + clean structure break.
Invalidation: Weekly close below long-term trendline and FVG zones.
Crash
TSLA SellOff ! Elon Musk vs Donald Trump ! Beginning of the End?If you haven`t bought the dip on TSLA:
Now you need to know that TSLA Tesla experienced a significant drop of 14% today, marking its worst single-day performance in over four years. This decline erased approximately $150 billion in market capitalization, bringing the stock down to $284.70.
The immediate cause of this downturn is the escalating feud between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. Musk's public criticism of Trump's tax legislation, labeling it a "repugnant abomination," prompted Trump to threaten the revocation of government contracts with Musk's companies. This political clash has introduced significant uncertainty regarding Tesla's future government support.
Beyond the political arena, Tesla's core business metrics are showing signs of strain. The company reported a 9% decline in quarterly revenues and a staggering 71% drop in profits. Additionally, Tesla has lost its leadership position in the electric vehicle market to China's BYD, indicating increased competitive pressure.
cincodias.elpais.com
Investor sentiment is also waning. A Morgan Stanley survey revealed that 85% of investors believe Musk's political activities are negatively impacting Tesla's business fundamentals. This perception is further exacerbated by declining sales in key markets, such as a 17% drop in Model Y registrations in California.
thestreet.com
Elon Musk and Donald Trump have publicly clashed, escalating a feud that has unraveled their once-close relationship. The dispute centers on several issues:
Republican Tax and Immigration Bill: Musk criticized a sweeping Republican domestic policy bill backed by Trump, calling it a "disgusting abomination" on X. Trump claimed Musk initially had no issue with the bill, accusing him of being upset over the removal of an electric vehicle tax credit.
Epstein Files Allegation: Musk alleged Trump's name appears in classified Jeffrey Epstein files, escalating tensions. Trump has not directly addressed this claim but responded by threatening to cut government contracts with Musk's companies.
Personal and Financial Accusations: Musk argued Trump would have lost the 2024 election without his financial support, accusing him of ingratitude. Trump countered, saying he was "disappointed" in Musk, claiming he asked Musk to leave the administration and accused him of "Trump Derangement Syndrome."
Government Contracts and Tariffs: Trump threatened to cancel "billions and billions" in government contracts with Musk's companies, like SpaceX, amid the feud. Separately, Musk reportedly made personal appeals to Trump on auto tariffs, which Trump noted might involve a conflict of interest.
Cabinet Clash: Reports indicate Musk clashed with Trump’s cabinet, including Marco Rubio, over spending cuts related to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), with some describing Musk's behavior as disruptive.
Given these challenges, a price target of $215 for TSLA appears justified. The combination of political entanglements, deteriorating financial performance, and eroding investor confidence suggests that Tesla's stock may face continued downward pressure in the near term.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
The Collapse of the Bitcoin ExperimentFew are prepared for this scenario, yet it's the most probable one: Bitcoin is heading for a major crash in the coming years.
What was once a revolutionary idea has become a centralized shitcoin, failing nearly every purpose envisioned by its creator. Aside from gamblers and speculators, hardly anyone truly believes in Bitcoin anymore.
The experiment has failed — it's time to accept its fate.
This will be the biggest short trade in the history.
05 June, 2025
Doomsie
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
Trade Idea: $MSFT Short to $418 and beyond into JuneTriple bearish divergence is evident on Volume, RSI, and Momentum. The 9-count sell signal on the daily chart further supports the likelihood of a sell-off at this point. If the price falls below $425, a swift decline to $418 is anticipated, where the true test of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) below will occur. The Fair Value Gap open is at $392.45. Stop would be above yesterday's high at $439.50 ...
$SPY Its time according to my chart.. Lower high is the trigger I posted two charts for reference to the current situation. With a historic rally right into resistance and a fractal analog that matches, I have no choice but to remain bearish. These are my studies. Sometimes Impatience leads to things like Impulsive Entries and Exits, Revenge Trading, and at times, even Blown Accounts. Times like those should be followed by a regroup and a reset.
The 9 Count Sell Signal Triggered with a Reset is on Technical Inidators for a move lower. I do believe we are going to consolidate for several days but nothing further than the second week of May. Today Bulls got extremely bullish and still were not able to hold the highs into the close. The test of the 200 day SMA was rejected and several days near these leveles whether above or below, would prove the downside move more possible. The monthly on SPX is my biggest indicator, personally. If it follows the pattern I'm following then after a test of the 10WMA, we will roll back over on the next 10 day candle. The market ran through a death cross without stopping, which if anyone were to study for several minutes, they would be able to see any first attempt at a death cross to the upsde is almost immediately met with a selloff back to the lows of the breakout move. Good luck everybody.
$MSFT BEST TRADE EVER? SUB $400 incoming by Mid JuneHey everybody, I hope that rally didn't kick your arses the way it did mine. You know, it's like I'm allergic to taking upside atm due to how bearish the MACRO is. Of course, with time, I'm going to assume I get most of my downside Price Targets in the next several years.
If you refer to the previous 23% Run to the 200DMA from the 50day in 2023 , NASDAQ:MSFT produced a 9 COUNT SELL SIGNAL , RALLIED for a week, and then dropped to new lows. That is what I am expecting here.
NASDAQ:MSFT looks absolutely ripe for the taking. We just rallied 17% and got the 9 COUNT SELL SIGNAL . Mind you, Gaps galore below. The Monthly and the Weekly both have Gaps . Charts do not like that, let me tell ya. I'm excited if you can't tell. NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:AVGO look great as well. I'm still cautious about a spike out but I figure if we continue higher, i will have opportunity to grab more for cheaper as I am very confident in this move. The price moved above the DEATH CROSS and above the 200DMA . Not ever a healthy move if it moves Vertically from the 50 day and Crosses above both MA's without a stop. Mid June NASDAQ:MSFT should be at new lows.
$SPX Sell in May, Go Away, $5k, Dead Cat to $5.3k, $4.8k by EOMAlrighty. My forecast is as follows. I made a video explaining just a quick thought and here's the video in a written version for the most part. Basically, I'm a pattern chart trader and I spend the majority of my days looking for specific candlestick patterns that match candle for candle. I cannot find anything remotely close to today's Price Action besides October 2001. I have been and will continue to be doubted and that's okay. I am not here for anyone except myself and anyone that wants to gain a fresh unbiased perspective. People have called me a Permabear but that only pertains to my personality, which is that of a realist. I do not believe investing for the next 20-50 Years will work for everyone. You'd have to do it well and continuously contribute even during the down days. Either way. This is the analog I will be following. Fib is Extended way beyond Blow Off Top measurements imo. The market gained 50% in One Year and Three Months. I'd like to think that the uncertainty being priced in will cause these Deeper Fib Retracements. We already crashed down to the 1.61 GOLDEN POCKET from above and now bounce back to Secon Golden Pocket at 2.61. Based on the past behavior, now we move back to 2.0 for a move to the original extension of the 1.00 Fib. If we lose this, we start moving back to the 1.27 near $4.74k on SPX where I will then be looking for one final dead cat to $5300 by mid August, Every July dip being grabbed up ... Final Sell in August for an End of Year Crash to Mark 2025 as one of the worst years ever in Life as far as the Market goes. Good Luck everyone. Tips always welcome.
NVDIA Death Cross Quant Perspectives (Light Case Study)NASDAQ: Nvidia (NVDA ) has recently experienced an uptrend after a death cross formed consisting of the 65 and 200 EMAs on the 1 Day chart.
If we analyze back on Nvidia starting in 1999 , we can count a total of 10 death crosses that have occurred, and 9 have been immediately followed by downtrends. Although a single death cross did not have an immediate downtrend, shortly after this event (approx. 282 days) another death cross formed and price then fell roughly twice as it historically has , almost appearing to make up for the missed signal.
From a quantitative perspective:
If we calculate the raw historical success rate using:
Raw Success Rate = 9/10 = 90
With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 90%
In order to avoid overconfidence we can apply Laplace smoothing using:
Smoothed Probability = 9+1/10+2 = 10/12 or 0.8333
With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 83%
Given the results of the data I personally feel that there is a Very High (83%) chance this death cross that recently formed on the 1 Day chart (around 04/16/2025) will immediately lead to a downtrend. And a Low (17%) chance it does not. Furthermore these results support a technical analysis hypothesis that I formed prior.
Many different systemic factors can contribute to the market movement, but mathematics sometimes leave subtle clues. Will the market become bearish? Or will Nvidia gain renewed bullish interest?
Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice.
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day.
The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar.
There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here.
I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern.
I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see.
I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty.
Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms.
Wishing everyone peace and prosperity!
Tim West
11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
Ethereum Hits Support – Time to Load Up?🎢 The Great 112‑Day Drop
What happened? Over the past 112 days, ETH tumbled –66%, sliding from $4109 down to $1383 and oh yeah, it even poked its nose below the January 2018 all-time high. 7 years ago!
Support Zone: 0.786 + Volume Profile
0.786 Fib: $1,570.85 (drawn from the 2022 low $870.80 to that $4109 high).
5‑Year POC: $1565
Hold Tight: For 2 weeks, the 0.786 level has acted as support, bouncing price right back up.
Sell in May and go away? Rather buy in May and grab some gains on the way?
Trade Blueprint: Your Ethereum Game Plan
Entry Zone: $1570.85
Stop Loss: Below $1369.79
Profit Targets: $1800, $2000 ,$2500, $3000
Risk/Reward: Risk ≈13%, Reward ≈91%, a solid 7:1 R:R
DCA
Missed the perfect entry? No drama... dollar‑cost average between $1700 and $1500.
Keep an eye on the monthly open at $1822. Bulls need to break this resistance zone.
Bottom Line
Ethereum’s –66% dive has handed us a golden ticket at the 0.786 fib and 5‑year POC. This is one of those “buy the dip” moments.
________________________________
💬 Found this helpful? Drop a like and comment below. Want TA on another coin? Let me know and I’ll break it down for you.
Happy trading everyone! 💪
AAPL About to CRACK!Without Question, AAPL is the best company in the world and the most valuable. However, it means little in this economic landscape.
AAPL is about to start cracking here. I usually do not post them ahead like this, but in this situation, I will break my own rules.
Take your money and RUN!!!
WARNING!! GTFO!
Nasdaq - This Is Still Not The End Yet!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) cannot resist bearish pressure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past three months, we saw such a harsh correction on the Nasdaq that a lot of people are freaking out entirely. However technicals already told us that something feels wrong and this is the result. If we see another -10% from here, buying the dip will most likely pay off.
Levels to watch: $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
IM BEARISH ON NVIDIA WITH A TARGET OF $55.00. HERE IS WHY:NVIDIA (NVDA) Known for their GPUs, recently has experienced a decline in asset price. Trump tariff's may have been a bearish news catalyst, but do the technicals show a bigger bearish picture?
1 Day chart: While the RSI recently signaled oversold conditions, the RSI line looks to be crossing down the RSI based moving average. Furthermore the 200 Day EMA and 65 Day EMAs appear to be forming a death cross. DMI is still indicating bearish, and the ADX is still above 20.
With recent political news, the tech company has been working on bolstering their U.S based production. But with inflation cooling (6 month low) , I believe many high performing blue chip stocks may see a dip as traders and institutions price in deflation, new news and political events.
My opinion on a target is $55.00 , and there is significant open interest on long puts for this price that are expiring in the coming months.
Will NVIDIA pull out of this downtrend? Or will it become a great value buy for investors?
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
WILL THE S&P 500 COME CRASHING DOWN? TRIPLE RSI DIVERGENCE?!S&P 500 (SPX) Is considered to be one of the primary benchmarks for the U.S economy. Recently it appears to be showing a triple bearish RSI divergence, DMI indicating bearish with ADX above 20, and a bearish MACD on the 1 Month chart. The technical analysis seems to have a highly bearish hypothesis in my opinion. If we give some thought to Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order , some haunting indicators appear to be forming. Could this just be a minor correction? Or is this the beginning of an extended economic downturn?
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
SPY CRACK! WARNING!We are in the "honey" phase in Stocks.
This is the part where they tell you:
-Don't panic
-Stocks are cheap forward EPS
-Nible on the way down
-Diversified portfolio wins..
-It's a stock picker's market
-There is a lot of cash on the sidelines
-It's just a reset
-It's a correction
-We needed this to shake out the weak hands
-Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it's yours
-There is a lot of value in...
-This is your last chance to...
-This and that stock are going to $1,000
-Stocks are the best investment over the course of time
The list is endless to get you to buy or stay in and suck up the pain. They will "Future Fuke" you the world.
I will remind you that you cannot buy unless you first sell! No one has endless money, and your 1% addition monthly will not lower your cost basis.
All I can tell you is what this chart shows! A BIG CRACK!
WARNING!!!
Click like, follow, subscribe, and let me help you navigate these crazy markets.
SPX: Eye of The StormIn a hurricane the EYE of the storm is region of "calm" and even blue skies
To the unaware, the break in the clouds and the blues skies may bring a sense of relief that "the worst is over"
But the informed know that the OTHER SIDE of the storm is coming and the worst has yet to happen
IMO the aforementioned scenario accurately describes what we are about to see in markets
The Administration is slowly backing off the more severe of the tariffs
Over the weekend they removed tariffs on major electronics and associated components coming from China which should bring a sense of relief to markets
We will most likely see continued softening on the worst of the tariffs as the administration grapples with the true reality of things: MARKETS ARE IN TROUBLE
This softening will give the appearance that things will be OK and we may even see markets rally to new ALL TIME HIGHS
But a rally to new ATHs will be akin to the "eye of the storm" as just like with a Hurricane..the other side of the storm is coming
The Spring of OM: Wyckoff Signals a Rebirth After the CrashMANTRA ( BYBIT:OMUSDT.P ) Technical Analysis: Post-Crash Recovery and Wyckoff Accumulation Insights
TradingView
On April 13, 2025, MANTRA (OM) experienced a significant price drop, declining approximately 88% within 24 hours. This sharp downturn was attributed to a combination of factors, including market-wide volatility and potential large-scale sell-offs. Despite this abrupt decline, technical indicators suggest that OM may be entering a Wyckoff Accumulation Phase, presenting potential investment opportunities.
Understanding the Recent Price Movement
Following the crash, OM's price stabilized around $0.70, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $2.3 billion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicators both entered oversold territories, indicating a potential for price reversal.
CoinMarketCap
CentralCharts
Wyckoff Accumulation Phase Analysis
The Wyckoff Method identifies specific phases in market cycles, with the Accumulation Phase characterized by large investors ("smart money") buying assets at lower prices. Key features of this phase include:
Selling Climax (SC): A sharp price decline with high volume, as seen in OM's recent drop.
TradingView
Automatic Rally (AR): A quick rebound following the SC, indicating initial buying interest.
Secondary Test (ST): Price revisits the SC level to test support, often with lower volume.
Spring: A false breakout below support levels to shake out weak holders, potentially observed in OM's price action.
Mudrex
Sign of Strength (SOS): A strong price increase with higher volume, signaling the end of accumulation.
Currently, OM's price behavior aligns with the early stages of this accumulation pattern.
Investment Considerations
For investors considering entry points:
Risk Tolerance: Given the recent volatility, only risk capital should be used.
Technical Confirmation: Await confirmation of the SOS phase before significant investment.
Volume Analysis: Monitor trading volumes for signs of increased institutional interest.
Understanding the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase can provide insights into potential market reversals.
$OM MANTRA coin analysis Hi 👋🏻 it's me your " Raj_crypt0 " ..... 💚
will BINANCE:OMUSDT next KRAKEN:LUNAUSD
" Yes , I hope so - 90% new High not possible
I hope it's not possible "
coin already got squeezed at $5/5.5 in weekly to 3 month time frame as weakness we can observe
Upcoming downtrend 📉 target 🎯 is - $0.1
$0.1 / 0.0875 ...... 🎯 Support 💪🏻 let me meet u there 😂
" U have a question ⁉️ does ' alts season ' & ' BULL RUN ' completed - obviously 🙄 ' NO ' "
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL haven't reached 5T 🎯 - still season was around corner
" Some coins complete early bull , some late _&_ some on time " nothing much ✔️
Path to 100 VIXI wrote this note on TVC:VIX a few days ago:
www.tradingview.com
And am now expanding it a bit more.
As someone who was working middle office during the original 2016 Trump Election, Brexit, during the Taper Tantrum and a few other major events - I want to lay out my principles on trading the VIX because spikes like this bring a lot of "first time" VIX traders to something that trades like NOTHING ELSE in the market.
This is not a stock in a short squeeze, this is not a generic index.
This is like nothing you've ever traded before. In fact, I'd encourage you to take advantage of TradingView's chart options and instead look at the chart of -1*$TVC:VIX.
That alone should give you pause.
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So - let's start with the principles of the finance business as laid out in the masterclass which was the movie "Margin Call" .
"John Tuld: There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat."
1. Be First.
You are not first if you are buying above the historic average of VIX 20-21.
If you were buying CBOE:UVXY since Jan 2025, you'd be up 175% right now and likely looking to re-balance into your desired long term asset positions.
2. Be Smarter.
* Are you taking into consideration the VIXEX Cycle?
* Do you know the effect of VIXEX before or after monthly OpEx?
* Do you know the current implied volatility curve of options ON the VIX?
* Do you know that of the last 4 times the VIX has hit 50, it went on to 80+ 50% of the time after that?
* Yes, I've seen the charts going around about forward S&P X year returns but did you know that after the VIX spike to 80 in October 2008, the market (in a decreasing volatility environment) went on a further 35% decline in the next 4-5 months?
* Where is the MOVE? What are the bond indexes & bond volatility measures doing? And if you don't yet understand that equities ALWAYS reacts to what is going on in the rates / yield world... you'll find out eventually. I hope.
3. Cheat
When things start going wrong, everyone wants an easy solution.
That's why its called a relief rally. It feels like relief - the bottom is in, the worst part is over.
But that is what the really big players have the biggest opportunity to play with the day to day environment.
They know our heuristics. They encourage the formation of cargo cult style investing whether that's HODL in the cryptocurrencies or Bogleheads in the vanguard ETFs.
It's all the same and encourages you to forgot first principles thinking about things like:
1. Is this actually a good price or is it just relatively cheap to recent history?
2. Who's going to have to dilute to survive the next period of tighter lending, import costs from tariffs, or whatever the problem of the day is.
3. VIX correlation - volatility is just a description of the markets. Its not a description of the direction. There is periods where volatility is positively correlated to the price movement (like during earnings beats). Know about this and know when it changes.
4. Etc.
Some have pointed out that is more appropriately a measure of liquidity in the SPX.
When VIX is low, that means there is lots of "friction" to price movement. It means that there is tons of orders on the L2 book keeping the current price from moving in any direction too quickly.
When VIX is high, that means there is very low "friction" to price movement. It means there are very few orders on the L2 book and market makers can "cheat" by appearing to create a low volume rally and then rug pull that price movement very quickly (not via spoofing, more just dynamic management of gamma & delta hedging requirements).
Additionally - volume itself becomes deceptive. Volume is just indicating that a trade happened.
Its not telling you to what degree the spread between the bid and ask has blown out to 1x, 2x, or 5x normal and that trades are executing only at the highest slippage prices in that spread.
All of these things are considerations that the market makers can use to make a "buy the dip" situation that works heavily to their advantage.
TLDR: "If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker"
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So - why / when would VIX go to 100?
In 2020, its easy to forget that a culmination of things stopped the crash at -35%.
* March 17, 2020 VIXEX wiped out a significant amount of long volatility positions.
* March 20, 2020 Opex wiped out a significant proportion of the short term put positions
* March 20, 2020 Fed Reserve announced to provide "enhanced" (i.e. unlimited) liquidity to the
markets starting Monday March 23, 2020.
* April 6th, 2020 Peak of Implied Volatility (point where options "most expensive") - which meant that buyers / sellers started providing more & more liquidity following this point.
In 2025, we have yet to see:
* Any motion towards intervention from the Fed for liquidity.
* Any motion from the significant fundamental investors (we're not close to an attractive P/S or P/E on most stocks for Buffett & Co to start buying)
* Any significant motion from companies on indicating strategies about capital raises, layoffs, or other company level liquidity reactions.
* Any "reset" of options in either volatility or hedging. Numbers below as of April 9, 2025:
- SPY 2.8M Put OI for April 17
- VIX 3.5M Call OI for April 16
Just an example but maybe IF we see those clear and NOT get re-bought for May Opex... we might be ready to call a top here at 50 VIX.
Otherwise.... we're just at another stop on the path to 100.