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$SPX Sell in May, Go Away, $5k, Dead Cat to $5.3k, $4.8k by EOMAlrighty. My forecast is as follows. I made a video explaining just a quick thought and here's the video in a written version for the most part. Basically, I'm a pattern chart trader and I spend the majority of my days looking for specific candlestick patterns that match candle for candle. I cannot find anything remotely close to today's Price Action besides October 2001. I have been and will continue to be doubted and that's okay. I am not here for anyone except myself and anyone that wants to gain a fresh unbiased perspective. People have called me a Permabear but that only pertains to my personality, which is that of a realist. I do not believe investing for the next 20-50 Years will work for everyone. You'd have to do it well and continuously contribute even during the down days. Either way. This is the analog I will be following. Fib is Extended way beyond Blow Off Top measurements imo. The market gained 50% in One Year and Three Months. I'd like to think that the uncertainty being priced in will cause these Deeper Fib Retracements. We already crashed down to the 1.61 GOLDEN POCKET from above and now bounce back to Secon Golden Pocket at 2.61. Based on the past behavior, now we move back to 2.0 for a move to the original extension of the 1.00 Fib. If we lose this, we start moving back to the 1.27 near $4.74k on SPX where I will then be looking for one final dead cat to $5300 by mid August, Every July dip being grabbed up ... Final Sell in August for an End of Year Crash to Mark 2025 as one of the worst years ever in Life as far as the Market goes. Good Luck everyone. Tips always welcome.
SP:SPXShort
by TazmanianTrader
2
NVDIA Death Cross Quant Perspectives (Light Case Study)NASDAQ: Nvidia (NVDA ) has recently experienced an uptrend after a death cross formed consisting of the 65 and 200 EMAs on the 1 Day chart. If we analyze back on Nvidia starting in 1999 , we can count a total of 10 death crosses that have occurred, and 9 have been immediately followed by downtrends. Although a single death cross did not have an immediate downtrend, shortly after this event (approx. 282 days) another death cross formed and price then fell roughly twice as it historically has , almost appearing to make up for the missed signal. From a quantitative perspective: If we calculate the raw historical success rate using: Raw Success Rate = 9/10 = 90 With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 90% In order to avoid overconfidence we can apply Laplace smoothing using: Smoothed Probability = 9+1/10+2 = 10/12 or 0.8333 With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 83% Given the results of the data I personally feel that there is a Very High (83%) chance this death cross that recently formed on the 1 Day chart (around 04/16/2025) will immediately lead to a downtrend. And a Low (17%) chance it does not. Furthermore these results support a technical analysis hypothesis that I formed prior. Many different systemic factors can contribute to the market movement, but mathematics sometimes leave subtle clues. Will the market become bearish? Or will Nvidia gain renewed bullish interest? Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TRADEABLESKUNK
5
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
SP:SPXShort
by TazmanianTrader
Ethereum Hits Support – Time to Load Up?🎢 The Great 112‑Day Drop What happened? Over the past 112 days, ETH tumbled –66%, sliding from $4109 down to $1383 and oh yeah, it even poked its nose below the January 2018 all-time high. 7 years ago! Support Zone: 0.786 + Volume Profile 0.786 Fib: $1,570.85 (drawn from the 2022 low $870.80 to that $4109 high). 5‑Year POC: $1565 Hold Tight: For 2 weeks, the 0.786 level has acted as support, bouncing price right back up. Sell in May and go away? Rather buy in May and grab some gains on the way? Trade Blueprint: Your Ethereum Game Plan Entry Zone: $1570.85 Stop Loss: Below $1369.79 Profit Targets: $1800, $2000 ,$2500, $3000 Risk/Reward: Risk ≈13%, Reward ≈91%, a solid 7:1 R:R DCA Missed the perfect entry? No drama... dollar‑cost average between $1700 and $1500. Keep an eye on the monthly open at $1822. Bulls need to break this resistance zone. Bottom Line Ethereum’s –66% dive has handed us a golden ticket at the 0.786 fib and 5‑year POC. This is one of those “buy the dip” moments. ________________________________ 💬 Found this helpful? Drop a like and comment below. Want TA on another coin? Let me know and I’ll break it down for you. Happy trading everyone! 💪
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by SiDec
4
Nasdaq - This Is Still Not The End Yet!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) cannot resist bearish pressure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past three months, we saw such a harsh correction on the Nasdaq that a lot of people are freaking out entirely. However technicals already told us that something feels wrong and this is the result. If we see another -10% from here, buying the dip will most likely pay off. Levels to watch: $16.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TShort
by basictradingtv
13
IM BEARISH ON NVIDIA WITH A TARGET OF $55.00. HERE IS WHY:NVIDIA (NVDA) Known for their GPUs, recently has experienced a decline in asset price. Trump tariff's may have been a bearish news catalyst, but do the technicals show a bigger bearish picture? 1 Day chart: While the RSI recently signaled oversold conditions, the RSI line looks to be crossing down the RSI based moving average. Furthermore the 200 Day EMA and 65 Day EMAs appear to be forming a death cross. DMI is still indicating bearish, and the ADX is still above 20. With recent political news, the tech company has been working on bolstering their U.S based production. But with inflation cooling (6 month low) , I believe many high performing blue chip stocks may see a dip as traders and institutions price in deflation, new news and political events. My opinion on a target is $55.00 , and there is significant open interest on long puts for this price that are expiring in the coming months. Will NVIDIA pull out of this downtrend? Or will it become a great value buy for investors? Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TRADEABLESKUNK
WILL THE S&P 500 COME CRASHING DOWN? TRIPLE RSI DIVERGENCE?!S&P 500 (SPX) Is considered to be one of the primary benchmarks for the U.S economy. Recently it appears to be showing a triple bearish RSI divergence, DMI indicating bearish with ADX above 20, and a bearish MACD on the 1 Month chart. The technical analysis seems to have a highly bearish hypothesis in my opinion. If we give some thought to Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order , some haunting indicators appear to be forming. Could this just be a minor correction? Or is this the beginning of an extended economic downturn? Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by TRADEABLESKUNK
SPY CRACK! WARNING!We are in the "honey" phase in Stocks. This is the part where they tell you: -Don't panic -Stocks are cheap forward EPS -Nible on the way down -Diversified portfolio wins.. -It's a stock picker's market -There is a lot of cash on the sidelines -It's just a reset -It's a correction -We needed this to shake out the weak hands -Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it's yours -There is a lot of value in... -This is your last chance to... -This and that stock are going to $1,000 -Stocks are the best investment over the course of time The list is endless to get you to buy or stay in and suck up the pain. They will "Future Fuke" you the world. I will remind you that you cannot buy unless you first sell! No one has endless money, and your 1% addition monthly will not lower your cost basis. All I can tell you is what this chart shows! A BIG CRACK! WARNING!!! Click like, follow, subscribe, and let me help you navigate these crazy markets.
AShort
by RealMacro
38
SPX: Eye of The StormIn a hurricane the EYE of the storm is region of "calm" and even blue skies To the unaware, the break in the clouds and the blues skies may bring a sense of relief that "the worst is over" But the informed know that the OTHER SIDE of the storm is coming and the worst has yet to happen IMO the aforementioned scenario accurately describes what we are about to see in markets The Administration is slowly backing off the more severe of the tariffs Over the weekend they removed tariffs on major electronics and associated components coming from China which should bring a sense of relief to markets We will most likely see continued softening on the worst of the tariffs as the administration grapples with the true reality of things: MARKETS ARE IN TROUBLE This softening will give the appearance that things will be OK and we may even see markets rally to new ALL TIME HIGHS But a rally to new ATHs will be akin to the "eye of the storm" as just like with a Hurricane..the other side of the storm is coming
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
7
The Spring of OM: Wyckoff Signals a Rebirth After the CrashMANTRA ( BYBIT:OMUSDT.P ) Technical Analysis: Post-Crash Recovery and Wyckoff Accumulation Insights​ TradingView On April 13, 2025, MANTRA (OM) experienced a significant price drop, declining approximately 88% within 24 hours. This sharp downturn was attributed to a combination of factors, including market-wide volatility and potential large-scale sell-offs. Despite this abrupt decline, technical indicators suggest that OM may be entering a Wyckoff Accumulation Phase, presenting potential investment opportunities.​ Understanding the Recent Price Movement Following the crash, OM's price stabilized around $0.70, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $2.3 billion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicators both entered oversold territories, indicating a potential for price reversal. ​ CoinMarketCap CentralCharts Wyckoff Accumulation Phase Analysis The Wyckoff Method identifies specific phases in market cycles, with the Accumulation Phase characterized by large investors ("smart money") buying assets at lower prices. Key features of this phase include:​ Selling Climax (SC): A sharp price decline with high volume, as seen in OM's recent drop.​ TradingView Automatic Rally (AR): A quick rebound following the SC, indicating initial buying interest.​ Secondary Test (ST): Price revisits the SC level to test support, often with lower volume.​ Spring: A false breakout below support levels to shake out weak holders, potentially observed in OM's price action.​ Mudrex Sign of Strength (SOS): A strong price increase with higher volume, signaling the end of accumulation.​ Currently, OM's price behavior aligns with the early stages of this accumulation pattern. ​ Investment Considerations For investors considering entry points:​ Risk Tolerance: Given the recent volatility, only risk capital should be used.​ Technical Confirmation: Await confirmation of the SOS phase before significant investment.​ Volume Analysis: Monitor trading volumes for signs of increased institutional interest.​ Understanding the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase can provide insights into potential market reversals. ​
Long
by insidermike
2
$OM MANTRA coin analysis Hi 👋🏻 it's me your " Raj_crypt0 " ..... 💚 will BINANCE:OMUSDT next KRAKEN:LUNAUSD " Yes , I hope so - 90% new High not possible I hope it's not possible " coin already got squeezed at $5/5.5 in weekly to 3 month time frame as weakness we can observe Upcoming downtrend 📉 target 🎯 is - $0.1 $0.1 / 0.0875 ...... 🎯 Support 💪🏻 let me meet u there 😂 " U have a question ⁉️ does ' alts season ' & ' BULL RUN ' completed - obviously 🙄 ' NO ' " CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL haven't reached 5T 🎯 - still season was around corner " Some coins complete early bull , some late _&_ some on time " nothing much ✔️
Short
by raj5_7_5
Path to 100 VIXI wrote this note on TVC:VIX a few days ago: www.tradingview.com And am now expanding it a bit more. As someone who was working middle office during the original 2016 Trump Election, Brexit, during the Taper Tantrum and a few other major events - I want to lay out my principles on trading the VIX because spikes like this bring a lot of "first time" VIX traders to something that trades like NOTHING ELSE in the market. This is not a stock in a short squeeze, this is not a generic index. This is like nothing you've ever traded before. In fact, I'd encourage you to take advantage of TradingView's chart options and instead look at the chart of -1*$TVC:VIX. That alone should give you pause. ---------------------------------- So - let's start with the principles of the finance business as laid out in the masterclass which was the movie "Margin Call" . "John Tuld: There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." 1. Be First. You are not first if you are buying above the historic average of VIX 20-21. If you were buying CBOE:UVXY since Jan 2025, you'd be up 175% right now and likely looking to re-balance into your desired long term asset positions. 2. Be Smarter. * Are you taking into consideration the VIXEX Cycle? * Do you know the effect of VIXEX before or after monthly OpEx? * Do you know the current implied volatility curve of options ON the VIX? * Do you know that of the last 4 times the VIX has hit 50, it went on to 80+ 50% of the time after that? * Yes, I've seen the charts going around about forward S&P X year returns but did you know that after the VIX spike to 80 in October 2008, the market (in a decreasing volatility environment) went on a further 35% decline in the next 4-5 months? * Where is the MOVE? What are the bond indexes & bond volatility measures doing? And if you don't yet understand that equities ALWAYS reacts to what is going on in the rates / yield world... you'll find out eventually. I hope. 3. Cheat When things start going wrong, everyone wants an easy solution. That's why its called a relief rally. It feels like relief - the bottom is in, the worst part is over. But that is what the really big players have the biggest opportunity to play with the day to day environment. They know our heuristics. They encourage the formation of cargo cult style investing whether that's HODL in the cryptocurrencies or Bogleheads in the vanguard ETFs. It's all the same and encourages you to forgot first principles thinking about things like: 1. Is this actually a good price or is it just relatively cheap to recent history? 2. Who's going to have to dilute to survive the next period of tighter lending, import costs from tariffs, or whatever the problem of the day is. 3. VIX correlation - volatility is just a description of the markets. Its not a description of the direction. There is periods where volatility is positively correlated to the price movement (like during earnings beats). Know about this and know when it changes. 4. Etc. Some have pointed out that is more appropriately a measure of liquidity in the SPX. When VIX is low, that means there is lots of "friction" to price movement. It means that there is tons of orders on the L2 book keeping the current price from moving in any direction too quickly. When VIX is high, that means there is very low "friction" to price movement. It means there are very few orders on the L2 book and market makers can "cheat" by appearing to create a low volume rally and then rug pull that price movement very quickly (not via spoofing, more just dynamic management of gamma & delta hedging requirements). Additionally - volume itself becomes deceptive. Volume is just indicating that a trade happened. Its not telling you to what degree the spread between the bid and ask has blown out to 1x, 2x, or 5x normal and that trades are executing only at the highest slippage prices in that spread. All of these things are considerations that the market makers can use to make a "buy the dip" situation that works heavily to their advantage. TLDR: "If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker" ---------------------------------- So - why / when would VIX go to 100? In 2020, its easy to forget that a culmination of things stopped the crash at -35%. * March 17, 2020 VIXEX wiped out a significant amount of long volatility positions. * March 20, 2020 Opex wiped out a significant proportion of the short term put positions * March 20, 2020 Fed Reserve announced to provide "enhanced" (i.e. unlimited) liquidity to the markets starting Monday March 23, 2020. * April 6th, 2020 Peak of Implied Volatility (point where options "most expensive") - which meant that buyers / sellers started providing more & more liquidity following this point. In 2025, we have yet to see: * Any motion towards intervention from the Fed for liquidity. * Any motion from the significant fundamental investors (we're not close to an attractive P/S or P/E on most stocks for Buffett & Co to start buying) * Any significant motion from companies on indicating strategies about capital raises, layoffs, or other company level liquidity reactions. * Any "reset" of options in either volatility or hedging. Numbers below as of April 9, 2025: - SPY 2.8M Put OI for April 17 - VIX 3.5M Call OI for April 16 Just an example but maybe IF we see those clear and NOT get re-bought for May Opex... we might be ready to call a top here at 50 VIX. Otherwise.... we're just at another stop on the path to 100.
T
by from0_to_1
So here’s what I’m doing: Not Panicking.This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this. In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote? I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them. Now, that’s something I can get behind. Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this: ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A” Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital. It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21% Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41% If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders? Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x. In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine. Would you buy Company A? Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on. I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²” She was like, “oh, that makes sense”. The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Party's OverDow Futures daily forming a downwards channel with price targets potentially down to 34k and 31k. These drops would be about 20-40% which is considered a true market crash. The falling wedge pattern plays out until potentially June of 2027, but wedges from the top of the range are dangerous as they can turn into bull traps. - Economic fundamentals have been disconnected from the financial system for some time but as the underlying economy begins to falter (ex. unemployment wave) markets begin to price in data such as falling retail sales. - President Trump is going through with mass layoffs in the Federal Government which creates unemployment as the private sector has been going through layoffs and has halted actual new hiring since 2023. - As more traders have become accustomed to "bad news is good news," they will most likely be wiped out trying to buy dips or chase false breakouts doing what they have always done. - Tariffs regionalize trade which make global economies and supply chains less interconnected. A global economy that is also very levered up on USD denominated debt needs dollar liquidity to continue to function. By regionalizing trade that liquidity is starved which can lead to financial problems on a global scale if not handled carefully. - Markets are likely to price in these risks over the next 2-3 months leading asset prices and interest rates lower. Expect individual companies to do well at times but then rotate to others while the Dow index itself falls. - Even if the Dow were to play out the wedge during 2026, without significant improvements to the global financial system expect that move to be a bull trap or a best lead to minimal gains without a new wave of monetary inflation.
CShort
by CrashoutCapital
1
Bitcoin Retests 77k Neckline Support! This is huge!Traders, As we watch the tariff FUD destroy traders everywhere, I want you to be aware that we have just landed on something extremely critical for support, the neckline of our long-standing CUP and HANDLE that began forming at the end of 2021. The neckline currently stands at an approximate price of 76-77k. If you'll remember in my last post a couple of days ago regarding the SPY, I suggested that SPY could drop as low as 467 and Bitcoin could hit 76k. Bitcoin has arrived at it's 76k support and if this doesn't hold, crypto is in serious trouble. I am not trying to be an alarmist here. You all know that I am an eternal optimist when it comes to crypto, but in this case we have to prepare our trades accordingly. The break of 76k support could send Bitcoin and crypto down as far at 50k. I know this is hard to believe. Even as I am typing this I am having a hard time grasping that we'd get there, but this is what I am seeing and I have to inform you all accordingly. If we're lucky, that neckline holds. But plan accordingly. ✌️Stew
IShort
by stewdamus
Some stocks do +1,650% verticals while the rest of market dropsNot all stocks follow overall market direction, just 80% of them. NASDAQ:AREB wasn't one of them. We focus on the other 20% which are having massive verticals no matter the overall market or economy situation. TOTAL Week: +121.4% realized profit from alerts posted in chat 💯 To good to be true? Been doing it for 20+ years. When should one beat the market with perfected strategy if not after 2 decades and nearly 100k hours invested? Ever heard of 10,000 hours invested to master something. Then what does 100k make you? Master Jedi? Sure feels like it if your 2 stocks are doing +70% +300% in a day while the world is crashing 🤷🏻‍♂️ All fully verified with timestamps, feel free to check and verify.
N
by ProfitTradeRoom