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If Bitcoin Repeated 2019In today's idea, we're going to entertain a "what if" scenario for CRYPTOCAP:BTC : what if the price of Bitcoin does an exact repeat of what happened back in 2019 up until the high in early 2021? This hypothesis is based off the candle pattern that starts from the 2019 mid-cycle high (1). So, assuming April 2023 was our mid-cycle high of $31,035, it's interesting to note the possibility of further downside continuation for BTC. From here on out it would be a slow grind down to $16,506 (2), then a sharp move to FWB:25K (3) (which would be an excellent fake out), then a final dump to $10,731 (4). While we aren't expecting (or hoping for) a repeat of the COVID crash that happened in March 2020, it's interesting to note that such a panic could push Bitcoin's price down to $10k- a level that would cause extreme fear and panic. Lastly, the candle projection takes us just over $100k in early 2025 (5)- a realistic ATH target for Bitcoin in our opinion. Note that this idea is purely based on a "what if" scenario, and should not be taken as financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by thebettertraders
4
Never the same since 2008, American delusion Since the financial crash of 2008 the stock market has only gone up, will it continue to only go up? How long can America keep living in this delusional illusion. Have thing only got better since 2008? Is the economy strong then ever? No I didn't think so. Not like its the reserve currency of the world. For now. Don't wanna be political so thats all il say 😅 I'm bearish on America long term. Imagine hitting the 1.13 fib retracement at $170 🤣
SP:SPXShort
by Connix
3
LTC & ADA Will Crash 90% – Bear Market Has Not Even Begun Yet!The bear market has not even begun yet for 99% of altcoins, such as Litecoin (LTC) and Cardano (ADA). I expect these coins to crash at least another 90% from where they currently are. I agree with people such as Big Cheds, Bob Loukas, Benjamin Cowen, and others that altcoins are far from having bottomed and in fact that the bear market has not even begun yet. Anyone using leverage of 1.01x or higher and who is long will surely get liquidated within the next 1-3 months. Bitcoin will crash to sub $10k as well.
KRAKEN:LTCUSDShort
by couldntcomeupwithone
13
BEFUDDLED BANKINGIt’s no secret that the US banking industry is facing some significant challenges when it comes to securities losses. In fact, the Big 4 US banks - JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America - are sitting on a combined $211.5 billion in unrealized losses. That's a huge amount of money, and it's certainly cause for concern among investors and analysts alike. One of the key reasons for these losses is the ongoing volatility in the financial markets. As we've seen over the past few years, there have been a number of factors - from geopolitical tensions to trade disputes to the COVID-19 pandemic - that have contributed to significant swings in the value of securities. For banks that hold large portfolios of these securities, these fluctuations can have a major impact on their bottom line. Another factor that's contributing to the securities losses among US banks is the current low-interest rate environment. When interest rates are low, banks tend to invest in higher-yielding securities in order to generate returns for their shareholders. However, as we've seen in recent years, these securities can be risky, and when their values decline, it can lead to significant losses for the banks that hold them. When it comes to regional banks, the situation is even more dire. These smaller institutions often have smaller deposit bases, which means that they have less capital to work with when it comes to investing in securities. As a result, they may take on more risk in order to generate returns for their shareholders. Unfortunately, this can backfire when the securities they've invested in experience significant declines in value. So what does all of this mean for investors and consumers? Well, for one thing, it's important to be aware of the risks that banks are facing when it comes to securities losses. While the banking industry is generally seen as a stable and safe place to invest, the reality is that there are always risks involved. As always, it's important to do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. For consumers, it's important to be aware of the financial health of the banks where you keep your money. While the FDIC provides insurance for deposits up to $250,000 per account, it's still a good idea to make sure that the bank you're working with is financially stable and secure. Doing so can help to protect your money and ensure that you have access to the services and resources that you need.
NYSE:JPM
by optionsswing
The Deflationary SpiralAll credit booms brought about by Central Bank-induced artificially low interest rates and loose lending standards end in busts. In the recessionary phase that follows the boom, credit becomes much harder to attain and many over-leveraged businesses end up going bankrupt. The recessionary phase reveals the malinvestments and unsound business decisions that were made during the economic boom. Businesses & Consumers deleverage their balance sheets either through paying down debt or through bankruptcy. As loan demand falls & credit conditions tighten, debt issuance falls, which reduces the supply of money into the economy because the vast majority of currency that enters the economy is loaned into existence. When credit growths slows and begins contracting alongside a falling money supply, inventory piles up and profits & margins fall while consumer spending falls. Businesses are then forced to sell at discounted rates to liquidate inventory in anticipation of weak future demand, which further reduces profits & margins and leads to increased unemployment and weaker levels of consumption. The “Deflationary Spiral” subsides and an economic recovery can take place once balance sheets are back to healthy levels which can support debt accumulation, capital investment recovers, and once large amounts of the “bad” debts taken on during the economic boom have been deleveraged. US M2 Money Supply is currently down -4.2% YoY using March 2023 data, the largest monetary contraction in the USA since the Great Depression. Using data going back to 1870, every time the money supply contracted by over 1% YoY the stock market had a large correction and the economy fell into a severe & lengthy contraction with unemployment reaching at least 7%. A banking panic always accompanied those contractions as well. Commercial bank deposits are currently down around -5% YoY, the most since the Great Depression. Total commercial bank deposits didn’t even contract during the early 1990s Savings & Loan Crisis. With money supply shrinking and the majority of banks unable to pay competitive rates on deposits, deposits will continue falling and more bank failures will occur. The large amounts of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets represent another impediment to loan growth and banks have continued to raise reserves for multiple quarters in response to rising default rates. Fed research from the Fed Bank of Saint Louis show bank lending conditions (measured by percentage of banks tightening lending conditions) are comparable to early 2008 & late 2000. Bank lending conditions are a leading indicator for unemployment. The unemployment rate currently is still below 4%, but with the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index currently at -7.2% and the bond yield curve still inverted, many reliable economic datapoints show that the economy is closer to the beginning of this business cycle downturn and debt deleveraging than the end. Yield curve inversions & Conference Board LEI’s have been some of the best leading indicators for a recession since the 1970s. Since 1968, any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession. The Credit Managers’ Index newly released data for April showed that the index for rejection of new credit applications (within the service sector) was 45.9, its lowest level since March 2009. The US Consumer is beginning to run dry on savings. The majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and consumer credit growth (which had been expanding rapidly in 2022) has slowed markedly. Total consumer credit growth has fallen about 50% YoY (using the 3 month average of data from December - February). After falling below 3.2% in the summer of 2022, the US savings rate is still low by historic standards, currently 5.1%. Announced job cuts for the month of March were 89.7K, higher than the first 3 months of the 2008 recession. US large corporate bankruptcy filings (Bankruptcies of companies with over $50M in liabilities) from Jan-April totaled 70, seven more than during the same length of time in 2008. Student loan debt payments are set to resume again this summer, which will further reduce consumer spending. US Consumer sentiment levels measured by University of Michigan hit the lowest levels ever (going back to 1952) in the summer of 2022, and they have been fluctuating around 2H 2008 & 1H 2009 levels ever since. Delinquency rates on things like automobiles, credit cards, and commercial real estate loans are soaring. Cox Automotive found 1.89% of auto loans in January were "severely delinquent" and at least 60 days behind payment, the highest rate since the data series began in 2006. In March, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills was 5.3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in May 2021 and higher than in 2009, the peak of the financial crisis, according to data from Fitch Ratings. Retail sales are an economic metric that track consumer demand for finished goods. US real retail sales down -2.1% and EU real retail sales are -9.9%. German real retail sales for the month of march just came in at -15.8% YoY! According to Bloomberg, Global PC shipments are down close to 30% YoY & Apple computer shipments are down about 40% YoY. In the past 50 years, US Gross fixed capital formation has only gone negative in the US before and during recessions. It is now negative and there has never been a false positive. Data from the Mortgage bankers association showed a -39% YoY decline in Mortgage purchase applications, a decline to its lowest levels in over 26 years. US Building Permits are down -24% YoY. Housing Starts YoY are down -17% YoY. Existing Home Sales are down -22%. Every national housing downturn in the past 45 years has taken at least 4 years from peak to trough prices, indicating that the current housing downturn is likely to continue for at least 2-3 years. Every FED Regional bank report on manufacturing (using a 3 month average of the data) is in a contraction. The April Philadelphia FED Manufacturing index came in at -31.3. Since 1969, Every reading under -30 was either in a recession or a few months away from one. April Richmond FED Service Sector Index registered a -23, the same number as in Nov 2008 & Feb 2009 & worse than Jan 2009 which was -20 (August and September 2008 were -10 for reference). US manufacturing production is down -.5% YoY. March 2023 ISM PMI data was also very insightful. USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) was 46.3, its lowest level since June 2009 (excl. H1 2020). For reference, in the 08 recession, it wasn’t until October 2008 that the ISM manufacturing PMI fell under 46.3, over 9 months into that recession. USA ISM Manufacturing New Orders (March) was 44.3, its lowest level since March 2009 (excl. January 2023 & H1 2020), USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) came in at 51.2, its lowest level since Jan. 2010 (excl. H1 2020). The US Stock market is trading at one of the highest Shiller PE ratios & stock market capitalization to GDP ratios in history. Present day stock market valuations are rivaled only by the Roaring 20s Bubble (1929), The Nifty-Fifty Bubble (late 1960s/early 1970s) & the 1999/2000 Dot-com Bubble. All 3 of those examples were followed by the most negative 10 year real returns in USA stock market history going back to 1913. Over 40% of businesses in the Russell2000 are unprofitable and over 1/5 of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Clearly, the stock markets as of April 2023 are still in bubble levels of overvaluation. Looking at the data in aggregate, I believe that a recession is currently occurring. Assuming earnings fall by about 30% peak to trough, using a conservative average from the past 4 US recessions, I assume S&P annualized earnings will fall to around 155. Using a conservative valuation multiple of 14, that gives a target price of about 2,200 for the S&P500 that is likely to be hit in Q4 2023 or 2024. Thank you for reading, Alexander Charles Lambert
AMEX:RSPShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
🔥 Another Market Crash Coming? VIX Says YES 🚨The VIX is the volatility index of the SP500. Generally, it trends up during bearish times and trends down during bullish ones. In the past, the VIX has always spiked up during a market bottom. Looking at the chart, we can see that the VIX has not spiked up yet and formed a bottom like it has done in the past. We only have ~30 years of VIX data, but it has still signaled the bottom of every bear market (-20% decline or more) during that time. Assuming that the VIX is correct, there's still a chance that the market hasn't bottomed yet and that the "real" crash is yet to come. What do you think? Is the bottom in? Crash incoming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
13
Head and Shoulders Topping Formation on the Russell2000The recent failure of First Republic Bank highlights the problems facing the US banking system. These problems include the continued increase of delinquency rates on Credit cards, Commercial Real Estate & Automobiles, as well as a decrease of commercial bank deposits and M2 money supply (-4.2% YoY). These problems, among others, are causing banking institutions to rein in their lending to build reserves and take on debt from the FED & FHLBs to meet deposit withdrawals. This reduces the profitability of banks and restricts credit into the economy, which reduces economic activity as a whole. The economy had already begun slowing heavily before the credit crunch began in March 2023, but the current business cycle downturn, combined with 3 large regional bank failures and rising continuing jobless claims, portend a severe & lengthy economic contraction. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators registered a -7.2% YoY Contraction recently. Since 1968, Any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession. Over 40% of Russell2000 companies are unprofitable and over 24% of S&P500 companies are zombie companies. Markets are still very overvalued within the context of a 5% Fed funds rate, contracting earnings, a credit crunch, and ongoing quantitative tightening by the FED. The markets have been seeing less buying volumes as well as carving out a head and shoulders top on the Russell2000. Other problems facing the banks include the popping auto & commercial real estate debt bubbles, as well as increasing large corporate bankruptcies (The most since 2010 thus far this year). The IPO market is the weakest it has been since 2009 (by total proceeds), which is also hurting Investment banking profits. I see the potential for 5%-10% possible upside and 35%-50% downside for the Russell2000 & S&P500 over the next 9 -18 months. Thank you for reading, Alexander C. Lambert
AMEX:IWMShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
Ethereum ETH Price Targets after the FOMC meeting this weekThe upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd could cause a further decline in the crypto market due to the potential rate hike and ongoing unease around banking system developments. The outlook for the crypto market after the upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd is bleak. Fears of a deep credit crunch caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse have not yet materialized, and the financial situation is much steadier. Additionally, inflation remains elevated, and with evidence of stubbornness in underlying inflation, it could be in the 4% to 5% range, far above the 2% inflation target. The markets are pricing in a 25bp Fed Funds rate hike to 5.25% at the May FOMC meeting, and given the steadiness in financial markets, persistence in price pressures, and continued decent activity, this could contribute to a further downturn in the crypto market. ETH/USDT short Entry Range: 1800 - 1950 usd Take Profit 1: 1710 usd Take Profit 2: 1620 usd Take Profit 3: 1480 usd Stop Loss: 2150 usd
Short
by BuySellMarketMaker
Ethereum ETH Price Targets after the FOMC meeting this weekThe upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd could cause a further decline in the crypto market due to the potential rate hike and ongoing unease around banking system developments. The outlook for the crypto market after the upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd is bleak. Fears of a deep credit crunch caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse have not yet materialized, and the financial situation is much steadier. Additionally, inflation remains elevated, and with evidence of stubbornness in underlying inflation, it could be in the 4% to 5% range, far above the 2% inflation target. The markets are pricing in a 25bp Fed Funds rate hike to 5.25% at the May FOMC meeting, and given the steadiness in financial markets, persistence in price pressures, and continued decent activity, this could contribute to a further downturn in the crypto market. ETH/USDT short Entry Range: HKEX:1800 - 1950 Take Profit 1: HKEX:1710 Take Profit 2: TSE:1620 Take Profit 3: TSE:1480 Stop Loss: TADAWUL:2150
Short
by BuySellMarketMaker