SPY crash potentialjust wanted to caputre my spy thesis in it's current state, not much to say, crash incoming :)
Crash
DJI Crash RSI PatternFrom a study last year identifying RSI patterns during major market crashes.
All hypothetical but I saw an interview today where someone said they were confident all is fine, saying banks are "too big to fail". Let's hope so.
Best, Hard Forky
Could this volatile move in bonds lead to a market crash?I’m honestly not sure what to think of this chart and it is concerning me.
I was playing around with TLT and MOVE (a kind VIX for bonds) and I noticed that multiplying them together created these extended spikes that have correlated with market crashes in the past.
We only have the two crashes to go buy, so this method hasn’t been tested enough to be that reliable, but the way that it has broke out this week has me concerned that something really big and bad is around the corner.
I thought that maybe the market was already crashing in the past as these were spiking, but that isn’t true: SPY was just starting to make a down trend both times, and likely most thought at the time that it was just a normal pullback in SPY.
One thing I will be watching out for is to go long on the market if that resistance is tapped and also get out of my TLT.
I generally have a feeling when looking at this though that they have completely broke the market now (it if wasn't already broken enough), and the wheels are set in motion for shit to hit the fan some day in the future.
Here’s a pic too, because I don’t like how the interactive chart gets squished sometimes:
BUY BUY BUY BTC -Hand over fist This is a long term 5 year call on BTC direction. While there remains the open possibility of one more downward thrust to $18,750 and perhaps a flash to $13,750, the majority of the bear move has been priced in, and time is now on the side of bulls and the long side. Most of the time in the next 5 years BTC will be higher. I believe significantly so. The Reason : Implosion of International Banks and Payment systems world wide. BTC will be like Zoom Inc. was in the pandemic. It will find its new use. When payment systems collapse, new ones emerge. $35,300 within the next 1 year. And $87,500 in the next 5. ( or sooner)
FRC to $42The price spring should it break and hold should be fairly large and fast. It currently broke a major trend to the downside and hit an exit. It also has fairly smooth sailing should it break to the upside tomorrow. Exit trade should the blue trend break or should the stock price reject off the red trend. Buy the dips on the trend until it breaks, and then sell on the bottom side of the trend.
DJI - World's End Scenario - short to 200 MMARevisiting this scenario where 1929 style crash fractal is overlayed with current market structure.
It was just an excercise and not a prediction but having reviewed the data again and considered Robert Prechter's Fibonacci predictions about the end of Super Cycle wave 5 I am giving it another chance with a speculative short.
The short initiate at break of support and will initially act as a hedge to target the 200 Monthly MA / $18k (50% drawdown). Stop at $35,500 (3%)
Best, Hard Forky
The scenario set out last year with some minor corrections breaks down as follows:
- Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA
- Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 lasted about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal .
Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped:
- DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation).
- FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation).
- MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence)
- SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around (correction) Feb/March 23
- BEARISH DIVERGENCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation, (correction) with an uptick in RSI on the retrace. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same structure, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (coincidence)
- TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude would require some form of major catalyst destroying a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both long and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside
Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :)
Is it possible, well it has happened before :)
... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again?
Best, Hard Forky
DJI - World's End Scenario
Gold TradingGold mid-term swing idea we are currently looking at.
The Two setups provided are to account for the recent fundamental activity which caused havoc on the global markets as risk on mode ushered investors into buying #Gold (#XAU ), and other assets like #JPY as an example.
Markets have priced in a possible risk scenario where $CS (Credit Suisse) one of the G-Sibs files for bankruptcy.
This event has a high impact on the markets due to the significance of Credit Suisse.
Today 15th March 2023 the Saudi National Bank have announced that they won't be able to support Credit Suisse further. As the bank itself has low deposits due to depositors rushing to withdraw their money the bank is on the brink of bankruptcy.
At the time of writing this post, the Swiss Government is in talks with Credit Suisse discussing a possible bail-out.
The current interest rate hikes have pushed many banks close to or over bankruptcy and due to the Fractional Reserve banking the banks have very low liquidity if any at all on their hands to cover a liquidity crunch. For example depositors en-masse run to the bank to withdraw their funds.
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THE CRASH IS HEREThe S&P 500 has attempted a bullish break out in January 2023. The price stalled and started ranging right above previous resistance trend line. Today we see major sell pressure. If we close under temporary support line on my daily chart then we will see the stock market form it's next leg in a downtrend. This will be the longest leg downward. When price fails to breakout it tends to pull back harder and faster than it rallied. Kind of like a rubber band. You can stretch the rubber band upward but as soon as you let go of the rubber band. The opposite force of the rubber band will snap back faster and harder. On the chart, you'll see some green trend lines to where I project price of SPY will land. You can say it's a possible pivot point but honestly I really see the chart hitting 200's before we continue the next future bull cycle. See you guys in summer 2024 when the bulls return! Happy Trading.
SPY: Due for more downside?I've got a supply zone staring at $394 that I think will serve as a temporary top for the remainder of this week. We also have a strong resistance at $393. I may look to enter puts but I am more likely going to try to play UVXY calls with the extra volatility. I'm expecting this to get under $380 fairly quickly and ultimately down o $378 where I see a gap.
200 Day Retest Failed - DownSPX tried to retest to see if could go past 200 day and failed...
I now expect the downtrend to continue and maybe a crash right around the corner.
Noe: I only use public trading view indicators. Nothing I use is private or custom .
Looks like rolling over to me This little up trend doesn’t agree with the charts no matter how much they want another blow off top… they are trapped. Banks are dropping like flies. You can’t plug all the dams leaks.
Anyway to much resistance above. Rolling over and going to new lows, imo.
Head N Shoulders On the DXY hey guys,
With the bump today on the news officials are stepping in on the failing banks the DXY is completing the right shoulder and with the CPI data coming tomorrow and the PPI after that could be great catalyst to send it higher completing the head and shoulders pattern.
Keep in mind no matter what the the data comes out the FED will only Pivot if financial conditions are in dire straits and all major market declines comes after the fed pivot not before. ie Fed pivots in 2007 crash in 2008, fed pivot jan 2000 market crash by Sep 2000.
Topping Pattern Example (Head and Shoulders)Hunstman is a chemical manufacturer whose earnings have plummeted over 85% compared to the first half of 2022. The chart is a prime example of a large head & shoulders pattern. Analysts expect its earning to remain depressed and the chart shows signs of Distribution over the past 2 years.
Why SI Silvergate Capital Corporation Collapsed ? If you haven`t bought puts here:
Then you should know that last week, Silvergate's stock plunged by up to 45% following the company's announcement that it would delay filing its annual report due to ongoing investigations by various regulatory bodies, including the U.S. Department of Justice.
This led major players in the crypto industry, including Coinbase and Paxos, to sever ties with Silvergate.
The second largest bank serving digital assets companies, Silvergate, announced that it would wind down its operations on March 8.
Analysts attributed the decline to a loss of trust in the crypto industry following the FTX meltdown, as well as concerns raised by short sellers primarily on Twitter.
Silvergate primarily serviced cryptocurrency firms, including FTX, which ultimately failed.
I am still bearish on the outlook of this stock!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SBNY Signature Bank next to Collapse? If you haven`t bought those 5X puts:
Then you should know that Signature Bank's stock experienced its worst day on record following the collapse of SIVB Silicon Valley Bank and SI Silvergate.
Due to high volatility, trading was suspended earlier in Friday's session, and the stock has continued to decline for five consecutive sessions.
This downturn was triggered by the closure of Silvergate, the second major bank serving digital assets companies, as well as the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank, the 18th largest bank in the United States.
It has been reported that Signature Bank had exposure to FTX.
I am still bearish on the company and i believe it will reach the $34 - $63 area soon!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
USDC SHORTUSDC has just DE pegged, and in my opinion will experience a full on crash this coming week.
BTC in first liquidity zone BTC will take a rest at 17500 in shape of liquidity and after that will bounce back to upward to another zone of liquidity 25-27k.
Real Estate Sector since 2005Markets don't necessarily repeat, but they do tend to 'rhyme'.
What do you think?
Silver, You should dump your paper and buy some physicalOANDA:XAGUSD
Paper trading things like silver and gold are a total joke. You who trade paper shares are trading in mostly fake, extremely diluted, worthless shares. Your paper certificate is diluted somewhere on a ratio of 900 paper shares to every actual physical once of silver.
Soon enough, actual silver will decouple itself from these made up paper shares. When it decouples, physical silver will go through the roof, and the silver paper market will crash, because it will be no longer tied to silvers actual spot.
It is a massive risk to be involved in paper shares of anything that is diluted so much, its insane. Hard times are very close, the crash is right around the corner. Best invest in physical, or if not, be aware of the risks that come with the paper market. Also. To those using technical analysis on Silver or Gold.. It does not work so well, especially right now, because precious metals have too much reaction to financial instability and economic crisis.
I wish all a great day and to stay strong in the hard time that will come upon us all. Prayers. Strength and Unity.
We have a fractal, Looks like a matchFits perfectly. All supports and resistances fit + trendlines intact.
What do you think?
Crash possible now? I believe so ….Through many technical analysis I have determined that a crash is incoming and I believe it to be imminent. I only use public scrips and chart reading in my analysis.
This all depends on spx dropping below 3920 before I commit to this statement.
Trend lines on SPYWe could rally back to a previous high before following the descending channel and returning to a new low into a fed pivot
COLLAPSEIt has been a year since I contemplate the evolution of prices, analyze patterns every day, compare indicators, technical and fundamental signals, watching speculation in full swing, levers reaching new records, states with the help of central banks flooding the market with liquidity.
Some have asked for my news, here it is.
In January 2018 they laughed at me when i called the explosion of the crypto bubble, now i think the US market top is near. Buying stocks now is crazy. Shorting it is always risky, but here we are.
Since their creation, markets have soared and then collapsed : I don't see why this time would be any different.
To discerning eyes a graph is enough I don't need to say more.
Wish me good luck, I wish you too.
If you want to thank me, criticize me, insult me or question me in the comments space is all up to you.
