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US100: A free fallHello Traders! Welcome back to another post with analyst Aadil1000x. The next few steps are not good for the buyers as there is a high probability of free fall. There is a channel that was broken hard and now there is expanding triangle. This expanding triangle will work as a strong bearish but first, there will be a bullish move to activate some orders. This fall will take it below the key zone which is at 11300 support. There is a True reversal point at 12340.1 and most probably it will work with pinpoint accuracy. Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
UShort
by Aadil1000x
2
CHATGPT crashes and Microsoft rejects the 200 day moving averageChatGPT went down world wide at the open of trading Monday causing MSFT to reject a retest of the 200 day moving average. This could add more structural problems in VOL since hedged equity and option flows are weakest until next week. My target is 248 today with an extension possible as low as 245. These AI fumbles are a good sign that AI is still a slave to human mistakes and errors. See how this plays out but certainly is a headwind to the bullish break higher in tech NVDA is another AI moving stock to watch if this is a rejection it may add to an acceleration to the downside. I'll likely get out of short position if ChatGPT comes back online.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by SPYvsGME
1
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
ES Market Crash 45% IncomingI will reference the 1973 crash as proof that this is what is happening today. Similarities: 8% between the 200sma and the all time High Daily Pennant/ Triangle Formation Bear Market Rally breaking above the 200sma, formed a double top 45% crash in prices in 232 trading days 50% crash from all time highs 1973 went 3 full range expansions 2023 potentially go to 1.5 full range expansions Both years ending in 3 MACD above the zero line, bearish cross and rolled over I will ride it down to 2280 and then accumulate SPY at 230 Massive wealth will be available to those who take it Here is the chart of November 1973 and how they are IDENTICAL to today
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
3
BTC Bull Run Before 2024 Halving. BTC New Cycle Now?I'm long term bullish on crypto, and I'm happy for this new year pump. Congrats to those who placed longs at $15K, you should take some profits off the table now. Why? Because we're not out of the woods yet. If you read my previous BTC analysis, I've already mentioned that I'll consider BTC has reversed if it manages to break and close above Ichimoku Cloud at $32K, or at least above all EMAs at $28K, to hint a start of a new cycle. As much as I'd love to see $300K BTC, chances are, that ain't happening this year. Technical Analysis - Weekly Time Frame: - BTC is still below EMAs and Ichimoku Cloud - 20 and 30 EMAs are already below 200 EMA, 50 and 100 EMAs are about to cross below 200 EMA - Death Cross - Heikin Ashi has shown a reversal pattern which will be confirmed by this week's candle close - RSI was oversold in November - 2022 lowest low at $15,476, now it's been moving up sharply like January last year and is about to cross middle line upwards, hinting that there's still room for upward movement - RSI was oversold and high bearish volume on Nov 7th when BTC made a new lower low, signaling a potential bottom - All Strong Supports(Green) and Resistances(Red) are shown in the chart - A break and close above or below these key levels with high volume comparable to Nov 7th has a high chance to lead BTC to its next key levels/zones Fundamental Analysis: - FED is cooling down with interest rate hike, but a pause is not a pivot - Overall Macros are still the same, no significant change on the big picture - Most of BTC's circulating supply has not moved for almost 2 years, BTC price can easily be manipulated - Black Swan potentials: Mt.Gox BTC selling pressure, DCG/Genesis/Binance collapse, USDT/other stable coins depeg, SEC cases, new crypto regulations, geopolitics It's better to wait for some sort of confirmations every time BTC reaches a key level, to determine the direction it's going next While technical indicators are good, one bad fundamental news is all it takes to crash BTC Be Careful. Not a Financial Advice ;)
by OTWhale
2
DJI - Be Ready My FriendsHi, this is my new update for DJI. As you see in the first picture, we are exactly in the same place we should be for a big crash. It is difficult to estimate a date, but I expect we are going to see 80% downside on DJI in the near future. Right now we are on a beautiful uptrend channel pattern and it has acted as resistance level multiple times and the middle line has acted like support level multiple times. At the same time we have An RSI divergence in monthly chart and that indicates we are ready for bearish signals.
TVC:DJIShort
by GOAT1375
3
S&P 500 Are we about to drop it like it's hot?Tracking our wave count for the S&P 500 we could be about to drop hard this week, with CPI reports due out on Tuesday and the Fed due to deliver another hawkish statement on Wednesday we could be entering into the wave 3 of C which will be a very sharp move and will demolish a lot of wealth in a very short space of time. We will move away from the narrative of inflation peaking and into a new narrative of inflation not dissapating as quickly as hoped. In turn the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer than anticipated (which they have signalled in the past few meetings). This is likely to scare investors out of stocks and into cash, namely the dollar. The 'bullish' move up that topped on the 1st of December was just a counter trend rally (completing wave 2 of C) and was designed as such to convice traders/investors that the bottom is in and we are heading to new highs, drawing in the bulls only to swing rapidly to lows not seen since the covid crash. We feel a conservative target for this wave 3 of C would be circa 3200, a very nice 750 points of profit from current prices.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RAA_Trading
Crash Game TheoryI have done a lot of crash game theory on trading view in the past. It's one of my passions about technical analysis. Here are my working theories for structure and H&S retracement prior to 2021 QE. -------- My first was the Power of 3, I don't know a single analyst that didn't predict something similar for 2022. OCT 2021 Here I started my website and linked it in my ideas and the idea got removed. FEB 2022 I'm not sure if you can see it, but I will repost it because it has a key weakness that resulted in big convexity to the upside for a period of weakness. I plan to publish more about it. If you can't see it, let me know in the comments below. I was a tad bit early on the following structure call, but the follow through was key to identifying bottoms I posted in the past months. AUG 2022 I added a bit of Fibonacci time to the growing magnitude of structures forming that the shoulders mirror from QT recovery of the Covid pandemic. SEP 2022 If you don't believe in H&S structure theory, The trump inflection line is a must read. As a reminder. This is all Market Game Theory. It's impossible to tell when or even if the market will crash again.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYvsGME
10
The Russell Riddle: which chart is 2008? ($IWM W) For the answer, scroll down to the comment section. Two charts of $IWM weekly TF. One chart is current (as of 2/4/2023). The other is 2008 ,up to 4 candles before the 50% drop. Which one crashed 50%? The conundrum: why do we assess current price action as bullish, when a similar pattern resulted in the GFC in 2008? There are many possible answers, none of them wrong. The one that interests me is the possibility that our bias is more extreme when we have experienced (traded) the price history. In this case it means experiencing the climb from the October 2022 lows. The alternative is basing our bias on the price history in a chart but *without* experiencing the returns themselves. For example IWM's similar price action in 2008. Any difference in sentiment would be consistent with studies showing that decisions made from experience often diverge from those based on description.
AMEX:IWM
by gb50k
10
S&P market maker sell modelYoutube still wants to short it... but we come from a Monthly Orderblock. Shorting is DONE! Now the Buyside is target. They will create the "bullish breakout" and all the Buy stops get taken into the market. This is when everyone thinks crash time is over. But do you think economy is good? This displacement that they will create above the highs will trap everyone in long. This Breakout traders will be burned to death. Think about it... They are not done down there. They would not let the sellside sit there. This is where they all place the sell stops when they chase the breakout this month. And when the real crash comes in summer months, this is where smart money accumulates the sell stops to build the new long positions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by marvineckhardt04092003
1
Bitcoin in ~decade long Wyckoff re-accumulation?This is interesting - if bitcoin is really to survive the coming global depression (very likely probability per Ray Dalio and Bridgewater's amazing research and free published works), then we can also safely assume there is a likely chance bitcoin enters a period of re-accumulation in Wyckoff terms while global equities markets lose a decade to consolidation and crashes and bear market rallies as the big debt cycle deleverages this decade. This is a primary scenario I see playing out. Now if governments start crazy stimulus programs like we saw under covid, and print say $6 trillion here and there... all bets off and the low floor level will rise commensurately as the money will be devalued in the currency you chart bitcoin in. So e.g. from Covid, we can safely assume the "floor" price of bitcoin rose about 40% nearly overnight as the US dollar was devalued 40%.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by DropDead_Fed
A major bull trap has been set.The current level of euphoria and speculation on Wall Street is likely to go down in history in the same way that the misplaced optimism of speculators in 1929 was immortalized by the tremendous crash and ensuing depression. The current dynamics at play are more similar to that period than most realize. Many potential catalysts for the Global Financial Crisis 2.0 are beginning to rear their heads, including things such as: -The auto loan bubble -The residential & commercial real estate bubble -The private equity and venture capital bubble -The largest losses in the total bond market in generations -Highest level of Federal Debt to GDP in US history and extremely high level of consumer & corporate debt in US history -The most overvalued market based on forward earnings in history (Based on my expectations of S&P 2023 earnings will fall below 140). Peak margins above -13% coming back under 10% will also help to drive this. -The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since Paul Volcker and $90 billion of quantitative tightening per month. -The crypto bubble implosion where many exchanges are likely to fail due to their ponzi-like staking dynamics and unprofitable nature of exchanges like Coinbase. We are starting to see the beginnings of the financial contagion from FTX into other exchanges and coins. This is happening in an industry valued at over $3 trillion at its peak. -The Chinese real estate crisis and recession -The energy crisis which has curtailed over 20% of EU industrial capacity and is sending Europe into a recession. This is leading to increased energy costs around the world. -Looming sovereign debt crises & currency crises for emerging and certain developed economies. - Monetary growth is contracting at the highest pace since the Great Depression. The $1.6 trillion auto loan bubble is reminiscent of the subprime lending bubble. There were incredibly loose lending standards in this auto loan bubble, where people that received federal stimulus checks were able to claim these as income. This entitled them to larger sized loans than they would have otherwise had access too. Many of these loans were made at over 130% loan to value ratio. These loans have been packaged up as bonds and sold off to investors hungry in search for yield in a world of artificially low interest rates, suppressed by the Fed for the better part of 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis. The amount of delinquent auto loans has continued to increase, and the looming crisis represents a huge threat to financial stability. As real wages and employment continue to fall, the amount of delinquent loans will continue to rise. Earnings for the S&P 500 in Q3 have already started to contract more than 5% year over year (excluding energy) and yet many analysts still expect some, to no growth of earnings in 2023. Earnings are likely to collapse over 40% in 2023, pressured by falling consumer demand and falling operating margins. Consumer sentiment registered the worst sentiment among US consumers since the great depression. All of the Fed manufacturing and service data components show comparable data now to data being released in mid 2008 to the spring of 2009, all with continuously negative trends. Capital expenditures have begun decreasing and mass layoffs are just beginning. 37% of US small businesses could not pay their rent in full in October. Many companies will be forced to close their doors permanently and layoff their entire staff. Consumption began to fall rapidly after the Fed began quantitative tightening and ended quantitative easing. The effects finally began hitting company earnings largely in Q3, with much more pain to follow. Meanwhile, many companies continued to hire large amounts of people unaware that consumption would continue to collapse. As asset prices fall further and inflation stays elevated, real wages will continue falling. Student loan payments begin again at the start of 2023, further harming consumer sentiment. Money supply growth began stagnating early in the year in 1929 and the federal government began to tighten spending with the New Deal programs in 1936 before the crash happened in 1937. Bank balance sheets have been flat for 2022 while the central bank balance sheet has been contracting leading to a slight contraction in the money supply. The contracting growth of monetary supply and fast paced increases in interest rates will lead to a large-scale downturn in GDP. On a technical basis, the current market setup looks very similar to 1929, 1937, 1973-1974, 1987, and 2008. All of which had major rallies that topped in late summer / fall before crashing over 30%. All of these crashes took place over the span of less than 3 months, with the majority of the percentage decline occurring over a period of 2-3 weeks. There are dozens of companies that are virtually guaranteed to go bust in this downturn based on an overview of their financials. There have never been so many listed companies that reached valuations in the billions at their peak with no earnings . Many companies at the time of this writing still have valuations of over 6 times sales and many companies such as Coinbase, Uber, and Rivian are still valued at over $10 billion market caps whilst losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter. The dozens of zombie companies in the S&P 500 are being forced into rolling their debts at higher interest rates while their earnings fall. This will be the largest debt deleveraging cycle in the US economy since the great depression, because this is the largest accumulation of bad debts since the roaring twenties. It is not long until the credit risk is truly realized by market participants, and interest rates spike throughout the economy. This would include the inter-bank lending rate and junk rated bonds which would lead to a financial crisis. The longer the Fed’s quantitative tightening runs, the more inevitable the financial crisis becomes. The Fed ran the balance sheet down around $600 billion over the course of 2018 into late summer of 2019 before inter-bank lending rates started to spike. This time, the Fed has run the balance sheet down close to $300 billion so far with a plan of reaching over a $600 billion runoff in Q1 of 2023. The hopes for a Fed pivot are misplaced. A Fed pivot on interest rate hikes and even a reversal of the rate hikes cannot re-incentivize people to borrow . In a contracting credit cycle and business cycle downturn, debt begins to be paid off and defaulted on rather than excessively accumulated. The demand to borrow collapses even if interest rates were lowered by the Fed. Therefore, bear markets and recessions usually don’t end until many months after the Fed has already begun cutting interest rates. This was seen in the Great Recession and the dot com bubble of 2000; where the market didn’t bottom until over 18 months after the Fed began cutting rates.
TVC:NDQShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
2023-2024 Forecast - from Dow Jones 2000-2002 dot com RoadmapThis is a chart of the Dow Jones 2000-2002 dot com bubble market overlaid on the Australian share price index, but really, this Dow Jones market could be laid upon a number of U.S. indices and you would still find a high level of correlation. The forecast dates are unlikely to align. The overlaid will need to be pushed and pulled forwards a backwards by a number of months to achieve 1, 2 or possibly 3 'best-fit' potential outcomes. The major low is generally more likely to aligning with a secondary low (a low just before or after the major low), or possibly one of the highs between the lows.
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by U2Rinfinite