Best and worst case scenario for SPXBest scenario : around 2800
Middle scenario and my target :around 2200
Worst scenario : around 1550
Crash
Ladies and gentlemen..The return of risk-off.. Biden and Xi will be desperate to drag the dollar back down.
Equities will follow.
When currency interventions aren't enough, they bring in the big guns.
S&P to hit new low mid-January 2023My first idea, comment if you think I'm onto something or if you think I'm dead wrong.
Since the S&P500 high in January 2022, RSI-50 began fluctuating between low 40s and high 50s. Each RSI-50 interval takes 70-80 bars. Each low and high can be associated with a strong rally or strong drop in the S&P price in the days following the RSI peak/valley. So far, this pattern has occurred twice. Should this pattern continue, I expect the S&P500 rally to continue and reach a local maximum around 4090 in late November or early December. Also at that time, the RSI-50 will be in the low-to-mid 50s, also a local maximum. Then, I expect a drop over the next 45 days where the S&P will lose 17% and hit 3390. RSI-50 will drop to 40 but may continue to decline, along with the S&P price. I expect the S&P to hit 3390 on Friday, January 13, 2023....Friday the 13th, mind you.
If I decide to move forward with taking a position, I will enter when RSI-50 hits 52 and put a trailing stop loss in once RSI-50 hits 43. That way if a rally follows, I can keep most of the gains, but can also keep riding should the price continue to decline. I am looking at buying SH, SDS, and/or SPXU when the time comes.
This idea is not investment advice. Good luck.
BTC bearish continuation in play it is about to crashBTC is creating bearish continuation pattern maybe one more crash are close to happend.
If this patter don't fail we can see btc price betwen 12500 - 13500.
Its good time to try little short from here with minimal stoploss.
AVAX crash -22%hello traders
The avax at the swing point is expected to witness a slight rise to test the supply area
The price crash begins to break the bottom
Global Recession is triggering As USA federal reserve government .. boost up another high rates.. this effects other big indices markets as well across the world.
The 4th time 75 basis points. This triggering global recession ad seems like it is coming. For EUSTX50 WILL DROP HARD .. should expect the bottom at 3000
If it doesn’t hold then 2600 area is a good area to buy.
Trade safe and this isn’t financial advice.
FEDS MEETING WONT BE PRETTYThe big day , the big event tomorrow
November 2nd the moment of the day we all been expecting and waiting for. Turns out they want to blow up the economy in order to take the inflation under control, even so they set to send another 75 basis point … this is the 4TH TIME OF THE MEETING !!!!
This percentage total of 5 percent of hiking aggressive..
This trigger a global recession in 2023.
USA depressions of finance is coming in 2023, and the Feds WONT STOP raising rates not sooner as you think.
We will face and see worse than the Great Depression.
Same as for nas from US30
Should expect even lower than where we were before ..
FOMC FEDS MEETING WONT BE PRETTYThe big day , the big event tomorrow
November 2nd the moment of the day we all been expecting and waiting for. Turns out they want to blow up the economy in order to take the inflation under control, even so they set to send another 75 basis point … this is the 4TH TIME OF THE MEETING !!!!
This percentage total of 5 percent of hiking aggressive..
This trigger a global recession in 2023.
USA depressions of finance is coming in 2023, and the Feds WONT STOP raising rates not sooner as you think.
We will face and see worse than the Great Depression. As for NAS … the crash has already started.
Dow Jones monthly points to WWIII bear trap ruse just like C0V1DThe strong bounce on a confluence of supports--plus the usual "but we've only seen the beginning of the bear market lol" articles--would strongly suggest that the yellow brick inflation road will continue (see both related ideas) and that recent market activity is another ploy to keep retail anxious / confused / short (valid for as long as the highlighted supports hold)
Pain is just starting for crypto - 3k area at play?! for Pain is just starting.
The US treasury bonds are decreasing as the debt to GDP ratio is going through quantitative cumulative tightening resulting in increased pressure on subscription prices and falling demand for butter cookies and other commodities. This will only worsen as the BOJ (Bank of Japan) is issuing rate hikes at a pace of 75 bipperinos per hike, eventually leading to a bottleneck in its economical orbit. This could lead to two scenarios : recessional (unilateral) crash or hyperdeflationary catalytic sme-GMA event as seen in 1945. As of now, any long is destined to be a losing trade. The probability of a bottom across US equities is low as they're indirectly correlated to the rate of growth in Brazilian government subsidized index KRVM4GA , which has been seeing major bearish divergences as the ambassador of Peru declared Brazil to be debt-solvent, meaning that its portfolio of foreign asset is absorbing damage at unsustainable pace, with no sign of improvement until FY2036. Furthermore, FAANG companies are set to launch a global campaign in support of Ukrainians, which puts pressure on Kremlin forces currently controlling the black sea canal ; all of this could lead to a shortage in wheat and forced selling on the BVT-PLU5 index , possibly impacting the life of millions of Europeans, thus directly decreasing their income and risk appetite when it comes to volatile assets like BTC.
Overall, this puts global macro conditions in a dangerous spot as they are set to worsen by EOY, possibly reaching a doomsday-level bankrun scenario.
For those reasons, I will be looking for shorts (and shorts only) until we hit the 3k area (possibly marking the bottom for this cycle).
ETH on the back of hotter-than-expected US CPI The breakdown is recent and a longer-term continuation should be confirmed by an acceleration below the aforementioned descending supports.
Notice I work with channel lines only. Questions are welcome.
Dollar broke Trend The TVC:DXY Dollar has broken critical support
The dollar has broken down from its parabolic curve that has been intact since October 2021.
We now have 3 daily closes below the curve indicating a significant trend change in the dollar. Risk assets are generally negatively correlated to the dollar. Therefore Crypto and the stock market tend to go up when the dollar goes down and vice versa.
The DXY has also perfectly hit the upside target of $114 - the 1.618 fib extension target.
We also have multiple bearish divergences on the daily and weekly timeframes.
Daily bearish divergence: MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Momentum as well as the Vwap
Weekly bearish divergence: Stochastic
Downside targets are as follows:
Short Term : $108 & $104.5
Longer Term: $103 (This is a strong monthly support and will be tough to break)
$101 to $98 - Golden Fib (0.5 to 0.618 fib retracements
Conclusion:
We should see a rapid decline in the DXY over the coming months which will trigger a bullish wave across many sectors of the stock market as well as Crypto.
Don't forget about the seasonality aspect that could be in play - i.e the Christmas Rally
Good Luck
Bitcoin gets the "all clear" from VIX and Dollar dump!So, I've been pretty clear that disinflationary data has been coming in hot and heavy, and that at some point, the fed will have to reconsider its current extremely hawkish strategy, pivot, and become more dovish. QT will become QE.
Inflation has topped.
The dollar has topped.
The VIX will drop.
The markets will pop.
For one last blowoff top.
Somebody bust that rhyme for me!
Most of the above appear to be taking place. Now we wait for the Fed to pivot and the blowoff top to come to fruition.
In the meantime, let us take a look at Bitcoin from a technical perspective. Triangles, triangles, triangles.
You will observe that after breaking out of our year-long descending wedge, the price action remained underwhelming, as it has since June. From a technical standpoint, there are two big reasons for this:
#1 - Since June (with the exception of a few weeks) we have remained rangebound between $18,700 and $22,000.
#2 - We hit a resistance trendline (BLACK descending TL) that also started in June AND formed the topside of another triangle we existed inside of since the beginning of September. Now, many traders were claiming this triangle was bearish with a probability ratio of 54/46 to the downside. Typically, this might be the case. My objection to this statistic became that this particular triangle poked through our RED resistance zone (now support) and outside of the year-long descending wedge; therefore, I was bullish this triangle instead of bearish.
Fast forward to today. BTC has, in fact, broken to the upside and the target appears to be that descending 200 day ma.
Now, if you are a follower of mine, you'll know that I entered a 5x long position at $18,300. I've adjusted my SL once to $18,500 putting me quickly in the green for this trade even with my SL triggered. I will now be moving this up again to our critical support area of $18,700. Should we remain above our 50 day ma tomorrow (RSI must also cooperate - see chart), I will move it yet again to around the $19,200 level.
Congrats to those of you who are following me in this trade!
Stew
S&P500 Going down another 40% - Market Bottom in May 2023In conjunction with my previous Dow Jones analysis (Link to it down below), we foresee another 40% drop in S&P500 until mid-2023.
The analysis done on these charts is based on old repeated market cycles that were last seen during the market crash of 2008.
As you can see clearly on the charts, the market has been playing the exact scenario of 2008, since March of 2022!
It's fascinating how similar markets are working their way, and people don't seem to notice at all...
There is a verse of the bible that W.D.Gann used a lot in his books which says: "What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." Always keep this in mind when you are reading the market.
A big challenge for BITCOINPrice keeps bouncing from the downtrend and now it seems harder to regain 20k level.
On last week Dollar Index drop (DXY), Bitcoin managed to bounce off the $18,600 but at the very last moment of weekly candle close price shoot up to be stopped right above 2017 all time highs $19,666.
Starting the weekly trading period DXY is recovering for another attempt to break resistance giving weakness to Bitcoin. We will see what price action tells us during the week but crypto bulls need to step up if not the flush down on BTC will be imminent.. 16k first 13,8k later.. in case of a breakout 20k must be held then 25k likely for end of November for a double local top.
Facebook's META resting on a confluence of 1Y + 5Y + 10Y supportWithout worsening geopolitical fundamentals and VIX surging back above the half way line (see linked idea) what will hindsightfully be the re-accumulation zone is likely to form here
Bitcoin Capitulation is coming…..19K won’t hold any longer .. still in bearish and I knew this all along even so the capitulation is near. So we be seeing the big crash during this bear downtrend.
Short buys don’t trust or try that even if your a very high risk taker.. be extremely careful because it’s volatile, while we be seeing the shorts these are the targets but first obviously down 17K even.. short retrace.
The bottom buy zone I see still 12-10K area .. if these zones doesn’t hold then buy about 6500 area even the dip. If those buy zones expect the bulls to take over and won’t overcome then we will see down to 2000 area.
So we are still bearish again don’t think we are bottomed it’s too soon , too early.. because the Feds still will go aggressive increase high rates , the midterm election, USA is in the recession and worst of all 3rd world war is coming.
Trade safe and let’s watch this fall
Great Depression: A Timeline of History - 1929Timeline of major events of the Great Depression in the year 1929 overlaid with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Crash Call: The time is nowHello trader!
Welcome back to another episode with analyst Aadil1000x.
This is a crash call. There is going to be a crash soon. Patterns are already completed and we are going to sell it now.
Crash does not happen by coincidence it happens because of chains of reactions we use chart patterns to predict the market and i can say some very sad NEWS is going to hit the world soon.
This post is for a signal and in the next post, I will give a detailed analysis of this crash.
BTCUSDT Sell now its at 19174
Stoploss 20173(-5.1%)
Target 1, 17239(+10%)
Final Target 15000(+21.7%)
This crash might not stop at 15K
Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
BTC.DOMINANCE on the move up if… Bitcoin dominance is setting a dangerous scenario for altcoins, but first , it needs to clear 42% and remain by the weekly close to keep moving up until the next resistance around 43.5% without breaking its trendline and closing below it.
sell nasadq “Higher interest rates, slower growth, weaker labor market, and market conditions will reduce inflation , but they will also hurt businesses and citizens , these are the costs we will pay to reduce inflation . But failure to restore price stability means more pain.
Housing Market Crash Incoming!Demand always rules supply. Always.
BLUF:
Short-term projection = TBD
Mid-term projection = bullish
Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish
Traders,
I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the NAHB's Housing Market Index data which helps us to better denote market sentiment.
First, observe that we have entered well below the weak demand zone. This is generally an area in which we can notice softening demand. Though the housing market may still remain hot in certain cities, others have noted softening demand.
Once we dive below this "Weakening Demand Zone", it can often represent the beginning of a housing market recession, or, in the case of the 2008 era, a crash! We began this crash with certain city markets plummeting through this weakening demand zone, Detroit comes to mind along with a few others. These were our lead cities to watch at the time. At the point in which weakness in these markets began to be acknowledged and reported, it was already too late. Michael Bury (aka - The Big Short) knew this. The crash had begun.
The markets did not react immediately, as we all know. In fact, the opposite: it would be a full 17 months before the stock markets reached their tops and then crashed hard. In a similar fashion, the Fed was notoriously tardy in recognizing lead disinflationary indicators and reducing rates accordingly. Not until a full year and two months AFTER the housing demand fell below its weakening zone would the Fed jump in and begin to diminish rates. By then it was too late.
Fast forward to 2022. Despite the fact that our U.S. housing demand has fallen far below the weakening demand zone and below the approximate median for a housing crash start, the Fed continues to raise rates at a historic record pace. These rate hikes will come home to roost eventually, but not immediately. This is why I am under the persuasion that we WILL enter a more disastrous recession or worse in 2023. The lag effect of the Fed rate hikes will have a significant consequential impact. Just as in our past housing market crash story the impact will be significantly delayed and by the time they are noticeably felt, it will be far too late. Disinflationary data, low demand, low consumer sentiment, etc., will have hit us harder far in advance and the Fed will have realized they should have pivoted sooner.
Though my longer-term outlook appears rather dismal at the onset, my mid-term outlook may be rather surprising to many. I do believe that just as occurred before the 2007-2008 market crash, the preceding price action will become bullish. It took the market a full 17 months to recognize the significance of our housing data, and the fed wasn't much better. Will it be any better this time around? It might be, but as we can learn from history, the market collective and the fed are often irrational and reactionary. The case for my blowoff top past the previous year's November highs still stands. The market will begin to recognize and digest more and more disinflationary data not least of which is housing market demand. The Fed will begin to be pressured more and more to pivot. And whether due to pressure or reason, I believe they will pause or pivot soon. Then the meltup (aka blowoff top) will begin. And sometime mid to late 2023, it all ends. Secular bull market (since 2009) exited. Secular bear market entered.
Be ready my friends!
And pray that I am wrong!
Stew
2022 Crash - My plan to trade the volatility I don't really post these for anyone else but for my own intuition to see how it turns out. But I'll have a go at explaining for anyone who finds it worth reading.
I've been waiting for this moment for a long time - and at times, been impatient. But it is now becoming clear where we are in this 'volatility cycle', in comparison to the volatility cycle of the 2008 financial crisis.
I'm sure many of us are aware of the risk of serious economic crisis literally around the corner. Not to say I/we know when, or how serious -but rather that I'm pretty cock sure there is elevated risk of serious economic crisis.
I won't go too deep into the macros because, well, you should know. And the conclusion I come to with what I think I know is that the fed may have created a multi asset bubble. How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
To conclude, kicking the covid recession can down the road gave us the final over extended bull run of. Bringing the end to a 12 year bull market. This goes for economic cycle too - monetary policy has been largely loose for this entire period (correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't actually checked the data on this.). But I do know it has been loose for a long time and the fed has stood ready to rescue markets and the economy where required to keep things tidy - ie. markets and economies growing.
But as we all know, economies go in cycles, too. And after every boom comes a necessary evil - the recession. After every recession comes a boom again.
We need a recession - but the further the can is kicked down the road, the higher the risk that it goes deep.
Long story short and probably way to brief, the fed and government's over stimulation of the economy plus the supply issues born from pandemic and war have caused dollar devaluation and inflation. I don't care what anyone says - the SPX should not have gained 120% from the Covid lows. This is just silliness because of overstimulation (Michael Burry would agree).
Why? How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20.
I'm surely not the only who sees things this way, right?
All of this, plus some amateur looking TA comparison to 2008, and staring at these charts for far too many hours, days, weeks, months, - I think capitulation is around the corner. Terrible news for most, I know. I don't wish for this to happen - I'm just following the fed. And would rather profit from the consequences of policy mistakes (kicking the can down the road) finally being rectified (Quantitative tightening, increasing interest rates = restrictive monetary policy = no more money printer until inflation and demand and prices calm tf down).
So, how do I plan to profit from this?
Well, volatility takes off to it's high's of $90 when we see capitulation. But, if history rhymes, we will see one last rally in the SPX - and the last sustained drop in volatility before a capitulation event. I am short VIX currently, but stand ready to build long VIX at tops of SPX rallies, eventually neutralising my position towards support, and phasing out shorts and tightening up stops on shorts. I expect this to happen over the next 1-2 months. Let me be clear - the short position is no biggy here - it's just because clearly we may see a relief rally soon, before capitulation. So I expect volatility to drop BEFORE taking off. So I'm short, phasing into long. Then I'll see you all when VIX is at $80-90 - then I will phase out of longs into MAXIMUM short positions on VIX. Let me be clear - I'd short VIX at $80-$90 with everything I have. And I plan to. Seriously. I encourage you to think about it and debate your reasons why that is a bad idea.
And with the proceeds from going long VIX through the volatility spike and then shorting VIX at $80-90, once volatility drops to c$35-25, I will start phasing into QQQ - 3 x leveraged Nasdaq 100.
Anyway, the anticipated capitulation event could be triggered by any external factor - war escalating, fed increasing rates more than expected, something completely unforeseen etc etc, it's not important - what's important is that the economy has been running hot, inflation is high, asset prices are in bubble territory, and as a result the whole system is vulnerable - we just need something to happen for it to be an excuse for the dominoes to fall as they should at the peak of an economic cycle, and should have happened two years ago. Then, once the dust settles in a couple years (possibly longer depending how bad) we can all grow sustainably (hopefully in more ways than one) again in the next boom cycle.
Thank you for reading.
This is not financial advice
