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NDQ100 Update - Overaction? Thanks for checking out our latest update. Today, we are looking at the NDQ100 daily chart. What a 48 hours we have seen. After a plunge that wiped off up to 1 trillion dollars and close to 600 million off Nvidia, we saw a fast fightback at the end of the session and a recovery on Tuesday. The crash occurred after Chinese Tech company DeepSeek shocked the AI world with a powerful LLM. Looking at the last price action, has support reformed? Will we see the new push higher after this last seller test? Buyers look interested, but we would like further confirmation with rallies that fill the gap or a test of the last high. Good trading from Eightcap.
EIGHTCAP:NDQ100Long
by Eightcap
NVIDIA (NVDA): DeepSeek’s AI Shakeup Sends Nvidia PlummetingNvidia is down an astonishing 15% in just a few hours. The primary driver? Fundamentally, the announcement of Chinese startup DeepSeek has sent shockwaves through the market. This previously unknown company reportedly holds a significant number of Nvidia chips and claims to have developed an AI superior to ChatGPT with just a $6 million investment. This disrupts the entire tech landscape, as companies like Google and others are pouring billions into AI research and development. The news casts doubt on the competitive edge of industry giants, and Nvidia is caught in the crossfire, given its strong ties to AI development and chip demand. From a technical perspective, Nvidia recently respected the upper boundary of its volume profile but failed to break above it—a likely factor contributing to this sell-off, though the DeepSeek announcement remains the major catalyst. The price has now dropped back to the Point of Control (POC) at $120, leaving a significant gap behind. While a complete gap fill would be surprising in the short term, it’s not out of the question. However, we’re not looking to catch a falling knife here. Given the uncertainty around potential developments with DeepSeek, caution is important. Our current plan is as follows: We are keeping the stop-loss for our first position at $114.50 to limit risk. A second entry is being considered in the range between $111 and $106.70, as this aligns well with both the wave ((ii)) structure and the volume profile. This plan is not yet finalised, as we’re closely monitoring how the situation unfolds. For now, patience is key, given the volatility and the ongoing uncertainty.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Is This the Start of a Crash or Just a Correction?NASDAQ Plunges Amid AI Tech Stock Fears: Is This the Start of a Crash or Just a Correction? The NASDAQ and NVDA faced a sharp decline today , the fears over AI-related tech stock valuation driving the downturn. This follows a broader market pullback, with the Dow tumbling over 350 points. While some analysts call it a healthy correction, others warn of a deeper risk. What Just Happened? Tech stocks bore the brunt of today's selloff as investor sentiment soured on artificial intelligence-related equities. Despite AI’s explosive growth in 2023, cracks in the market narrative are starting to emerge. Leading companies like Microsoft and Nvidia saw sharp declines after investors began questioning whether their sky-high valuations were justified. From a technical and price action perspective : The index has pulled back into a key demand zone. The current dip has brought prices close to the upward trendline established since December 2022, where the NASDAQ recovered from a 32.84% drop. Volume Profile: High trading activity around these levels suggests intense market interest and potential support, but if this level breaks, further declines could follow. So, Is This a Correction or a Crash? Today’s drop appears to lean more toward a correction than a crash: Structural Integrity: The NASDAQ remains within its broader bullish trendline. Breaking this line, however, could signal a shift to bearish sentiment. Technically, demand zones acts as a trampoline or a magnate for the price. If the market bounces here, it may indicate renewed strength. So, While AI fears rattled the tech sector, the overall economic backdrop hasn’t drastically shifted to signal a systemic crash. What to Watch Next; If the index breaks below the current demand zone and closes under the trendline, it could spell deeper trouble for tech-heavy indexes. Conclusion: While today's drop in NASDAQ futures and Nvidia has sent a wave of panic through the markets, it’s too early to call this a full-blown crash. Investors should watch key levels closely to determine whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a larger downtrend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by MESHANL
VIRTUAL - A Long Opportunity or More Pain Ahead?VIRTUAL has dropped over 50% from its all-time high of $5.14, now trading around $2.50. A head and shoulders pattern has formed, with price currently testing the neckline, a bearish sign that could signal further downside. Let’s break down potential targets and trade setups. Key Levels and Support Zone: 1.) POC from December 2024 Range: Located at $1.67, a significant level from previous trading activity 2.) Anchored VWAP: Taken from the lows, currently around $1.62, reinforcing the $1.66 zone as strong support 3.) Fibonacci Retracement (Log Scale): The 0.382 Fib from the recent wave sits at $1.77, providing additional confluence for the support area 4.) Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: The 0.786 Fib aligns at $1.71, further strengthening the $1.70–$1.80 range as a reliable support zone Trade Setups: Short Setup: Entry: $2.836 (Fib retracement 0.618 from the current downtrend) Target: around $1.80 Stop Loss: Above $3 Risk-to-Reward: 5:1 Potential Drop: 30–40% from the entry level Long Setup: Entry: $1.70–$1.80 range Target: Depends on confirmation and take profit areas. A realistic initial target could be around $2-$2.30 Stop Loss: Below $1.52 Risk-to-Reward: 2:1 or better depending on take profit strategy
Short
by SiDec
3
NVDA Topping PatternUnlike the previous call, I made in NVDA that was corrective. This double-top pattern is signaling a reversal pattern. From a trading perspective, this is a great risk/reward setup that is relatively simple. A CRACK! here will likely lead to at least the right side filling, with the potential deeper pullback (reversal) If on the other hand, it pops above recent highs then no trade or an easy stop out. As you all know I don't do targets, I think they are silly and only used to pretend one has such insight not only can they call the move but also a "target" too. Yeah well, I'll leave that to the "experts" ;) Bulls don't be a dick for tick. Shorts take some early profits to improve cost basis but let this one ride!
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by RealMacro
6
BTC1! Bitcoin possible crash scenario.The BTC1! chart strikes me as particularly interesting because, unlike other BTC charts, professionals use Bitcoin futures contracts here to speculate on BTC's volatility or manage risk in larger portfolios. The trading schedule runs from Monday (opening at 5:00 PM CT) to Friday (closing at 4:00 PM CT). When the Monday opening price differs from the Friday closing price, a gap is created, which is often filled, as historical data shows similar occurrences. Currently, there is an unfilled gap between 80,000 and 78,000. While it's not guaranteed that this gap will close, it's worth keeping an eye on that zone. Interestingly, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level also aligns with this area. Additionally, there's the 0.25 zone where we find an nPOC (naked Point of Control). We could see a significant bounce of 20–40% from these levels. If BTC were to experience a 50% drop from the current point, it would bring us to around 54,000. Historically, it tends to have a substantial bounce whenever BTC has fallen more than 40%, making these levels worth monitoring closely.
CME:BTC1!Short
by BOT721
Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course.. Do I agree with everything they say? Nope The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade: "QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
JP Morgan (JPM): Correction on the HorizonJP Morgan ( NYSE:JPM ) is back on our radar as the upcoming earnings season begins, with the banking sector leading the reports. We’ve analyzed JP Morgan before, and the current setup offers intriguing opportunities. Since 2023, the stock has maintained a steady upward trend that continues into 2024. Currently, NYSE:JPM appears to be in sub-wave ((iii)) within the larger wave (3) or possibly wave 5. However, we anticipate that sub-wave ((iv)) correction is yet to occur, aligning with the broader structural narrative of the chart. Presently, the stock is trading near a critical trendline originating from the top of sub-wave ((i)). This trendline, which has shifted from resistance to support after multiple touchpoints, now risks being broken. Should it fail, the price could fall from its current level of $243 into a range between $204 and $173. A drop to $173 would represent the maximum correction in our view, while a more realistic pullback would fall within the $204 to $188 range. On the bullish side, the wave 5 could push up to approximately $260, a modest increase from the current price. This scenario fits within the Elliott Wave framework, anticipating a wave ((iv)) correction before the final upward moves to complete wave 5 and the larger wave (3).
NYSE:JPM
by freeguy_by_wmc
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble). 2. Monetary Policy Tightening Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008). 3. Leverage and Debt Crises Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008). 4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929). 5. Liquidity Crises A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday). 6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020). 7. Declining Consumer Confidence Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s). 8. Corporate Earnings Decline Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis). 9. Structural Economic Weakness Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020). 10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
28.12.24 American Express - slowly downwardsAmerican Express is since decades Warren Buffett Darling. AXP last years with increasing fees and solid growth spent wonderfull earnings to the shareholders, even solid dividends. But during the last years, credit defaults increased rapidly. From quarter to quarter they increased accounting provisions. st. louis Fed statistic also very interesting. Small banks in Us with huge defaults, meantime by 7%. Highest value since 1991, even higher than 2008… So as a matter of fact, consumer sentiment also negativ. For 2025 expect recession and further increasing of defaults. Expext for axp sharp slump in earnings.
NYSE:AXPShort
by Flyerdan
Bitcoin - Playing around weak support#BTC/USDT #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + Currently bitcoin is trading around its support zone of 95K and this is weak support which held and broke multiple times. + Strong resistance for bitcoin is around 92K, if bitcoin falls to this level, we can expect the support to hold. + I'm expecting a drop in price with a wick to touch 92K and bounce back immediately. + If bitcoin breaks below 92K then we can expect further crash to 80K level. --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
Long
by VectorAlgo
2
Market SnapshotMUST READ!!!! All credits to Avi Gilburt and his team www.elliottwavetrader.net “Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur. When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship. When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit. When they cannot even devise a plausible way to twist the news into justifying market action, they chalk up the market moves to “psychology,” which means that, despite a plethora of news and numerous inventive ways to interpret it, their imaginations aren’t prodigious enough to concoct a credible causal story. Most of the time it is easy for observers to believe in news causality. Financial markets fluctuate constantly, and news comes out constantly, and sometimes the two elements coincide well enough to reinforce commentators’ mental bias towards mechanical cause and effect. When news and the market fail to coincide, they shrug and disregard the inconsistency. Those operating under the mechanics paradigm in finance never seem to see or care that these glaring anomalies exist.”- Robert Prechter
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
1
Market SnapshotQuestions I've been asking myself lately: Is my Bank safe? If the market crashes will they survive? While they fight for survival is my money at risk being with them? Do I have enough money saved so that if my job decides my services are no longer needed my family is not immediately or permanently at risk? What's the safest vehicle to put my money in a highly inflationary environment? What's the safest vehicle in a deflationary environment? What if the price of oil doubles over the next 5 years? You really need to buy more gold and silver (not a question just talking to myself) How will I take advantage of the housing crash that's looming? Why haven't you opened a family trust yet and put all of your assets under the care of?
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
Vbl crash with Low volume can give reversal When a stock (or any tradable asset) experiences a volume breakout level crash but does so with low trading volume, it can often signal a potential reversal rather than further downside movement. Here’s why: 1. Weak Commitment: A price break below a significant support level on low volume indicates there isn't strong conviction among market participants. In other words, sellers are not aggressively dumping shares, and buyers are likely cautious. This implies the move could lack sustainability. 2. Reversal Potential: Low-volume breakdowns often reflect temporary price movement caused by minor selling pressure, rather than a trend-defining event. If demand re-emerges or larger buyers enter the market at these lower prices, the stock may rebound above the support, triggering a reversal. 3. Significance of Support: Support levels act as zones where buying interest historically outpaces selling pressure. A false breakdown (especially on low volume) below such a level can prompt a "trap," where sellers expecting further decline are forced to cover when prices rebound, amplifying the reversal. Key Considerations: Volume Analysis: Always compare the volume during the support breach to the average volume. A convincing breakdown requires high volume to confirm significant selling pressure. Catalysts: Check for underlying reasons, such as news, sector performance, or earnings reports, which could explain low-volume moves. Price Action Afterward: Watch for a reversal candle pattern (like hammer or engulfing candle) at the breached level to validate reversal potential. To summarize: A crash below support on low volume often indicates an unreliable breakdown and increases the probability of a reversal, especially if significant buyers step in at the lower price zone.
NSE:VBLEducation
by AnkurDasTrader
Market Snapshotwww.investopedia.com 1. "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." — Benjamin Franklin When it comes to investing, nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. Do the necessary research and analysis before making any investment decisions. 2. "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." — Jim Rogers While 10- to 15-year lows are not common, they do happen. During these times, don't be shy about going against the trend and investing; you could make a fortune by making a bold move or lose your shirt. Remember the first quote in this article and invest in an industry you've researched thoroughly. Then, be prepared to see your investment sink lower before it turns around and starts to pay off. 3. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." — Warren Buffett Be prepared to invest in a down market and to "get out" in a soaring market, as per the philosophy of Warren Buffett. 4. "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu It's far too easy for investors to lose perspective. Whenever something big goes wrong, a lot of people panic and sell their investments. Looking at history, the markets recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, the dotcom crash, and even the Great Depression, so they'll probably get through whatever comes next as well. 5. "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." — George Soros Too many investors become obsessed with being right, even when the gains are small. Winning big and cutting your losses when you're wrong is more important than being right. 6. "Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time." — Jeff Bezos Most people dismiss many of the best and most profitable investment ideas simply because they probably won't work. These investors never stop to consider how much they could make if unlikely outcomes actually occur. Jeff Bezos took those bets and became one of the richest people in the world. 7. "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" — John Bogle If it seems too hard to find the next Amazon, John Bogle came up with the only sure way to get in on the action. By buying an index fund, investors can put a little bit of money into every stock. That way, they never miss out on the stock market's biggest winners. 8. "To the extent we have been successful, it is because we concentrated on identifying one-foot hurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any ability to clear seven-footers." — Warren Buffett Investors often make things too hard for themselves. The value stocks that Buffett prefers frequently outperform the market, making success easier. Supposedly sophisticated strategies, such as short selling, lose money in the long run, so profiting is much more difficult. 9. "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." — Phillip Fisher That is another testament to the fact that investing without education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion. 10. "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." — Robert Arnott At times, you will have to step out of your comfort zone to realize significant gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone and practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping ship? Or getting out during the biggest rally of the century? There's no room for pride in this kind of self-analysis. The best investment strategy can turn into the worst if you don't have the stomach to see it through. 11. "How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." — Robert G. Allen Though investing in a savings account is a sure bet, your gains will be minimal due to the extremely low interest rates. But don't forgo one completely. A savings account is a reliable place for an emergency fund, whereas a market investment is not. 12. "If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom." — Carmen Reinhart Beware of debts that seem sensible during periods of prosperity. When a crisis comes, individuals, companies, and even governments that ran up debts during the boom usually suffer the most. 13. "We don't prognosticate macroeconomic factors, we're looking at our companies from a bottom-up perspective on their long-run prospects of returning." — Mellody Hobson It's very difficult to predict when the next recession or stock market crash will come, so many of the best investors don't even try. Instead, look for good companies with the strength to make it through the occasional challenging economic environment. 14. "Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets ... any sound investment will eventually pay off." — Carlos Slim Helu Don't despair amid the inevitable setbacks that all investors face, especially during a crisis in the market. If the reasoning behind the investment is sound, stick with it, and it should eventually turn around. 15. "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." — Ben Graham You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts. 16. "The biggest risk of all is not taking one." — Mellody Hobson There is a direct tradeoff between risk and returns. If investors stick to low-risk assets like the money market and bonds, then they run a high risk of low long-term returns. 17. "Returns matter a lot. It's our capital." — Abigail Johnson The long-run rate of return on investments ultimately determines how much wealth people accumulate over time. Always look at returns when considering mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 18. "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." — Robert Kiyosaki If you're a millionaire by the time you're 30 but blow it all by age 40, you've gained nothing. Grow and protect your investment portfolio by carefully diversifying it, and you may find yourself funding many generations to come. 19. "Know what you own, and know why you own it." — Peter Lynch Do your homework before making a decision. Once you've made a decision, make sure to re-evaluate your portfolio on a timely basis. A wise holding today may not be a wise holding in the future. 20. "Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." — Dave Ramsey By being modest in your spending, you can ensure you will have enough for retirement and can give back to the community as well. 21. "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." — Paul Samuelson If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting. Many of the best quotes about investing urge thoughtfulness over impulsiveness, boldness instead of caution, and smart research over flavor-of-the-month decision-making. Top Investing Quotes from Contrarians 22. "The four most dangerous words in investing are, it’s different this time." — Sir John Templeton Follow market trends and history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. For example, a major key to investing in a specific stock or bond fund is its performance over five years. 23. "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." — Warren Buffett In the beginning, diversification is relevant. However, there are dangers of over-diversifying your portfolio. Once you've gotten your feet wet and have confidence in your investments, you can adjust your portfolio accordingly and make bigger bets. 24. "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." — Peter Lynch When hit with recessions or declines, you must stay the course. Economies are cyclical, and the markets have shown that they will recover. Make sure you are a part of those recoveries. 25. "The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself." — Peter Thiel
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
Waiting and Waiting For The Generational Top Man, SPX has really doubled since I first wrote about the possibility of a generational top in markets, back in 2018. In that time, have there been material improvements to our quality of life? Have economic conditions for the average person actually gotten better? Instead, it seems, market orchestrators are finding new ways to profit in the digital age - digital currencies, leverage on digital currencies, leverage on companies who buy digital currencies with leverage...more and more leverage. Extract more and more profit from people's attention. Gamify trading and our lived experiences. Looking at the long term monthly chart for SPX, historical crashes have had price drop below the 200 month Moving Average (teal). Price has also tended to gravitate towards that purple trendline eventually. It has not touched since 2009. Before 2009, it had not touched since 1982. That's 27 years. If we see a similar gap, we wouldn't see a generational bottom until 2036, or over a decade from now. Perhaps some caution should be exercised. Price has ventured to the top purple trendline. When price gets up there, it tends to appear overvalued, which may indicate that a mean reversion must occur. Here it is zoomed in, showing a weekly bearish divergence. There's also the Great Depression Fractal. This could easily (in hindsight) be a blowoff phase. Previous ideas about this are linked below. I was obviously off the mark when I first posted about this in 2018, but I still think it's work looking at, as a point of interest. Not as a prediction, per se, but as an example of how bad a crash could get at these levels. Once the Dow broke above the orange megaphone, price more than doubled before crashing. At current levels, price has now more than doubled from the breakout point. A number of external factors are at play - rising populism/authoritarianism, rising global conflict...all symptoms of challenges with resources. Things are shaky up here. Time will tell. Great resets offer great opportunities. This is meant for speculation only! -Victor Cobra
SP:SPXShort
by VictorCobra
1