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Crash

S&P Broadening wedge formation complete. Top is in.S&P index prints a rare and complete broadening formation with failed breakout, historically an accurate indicator of the top of a market. What continues to amaze me is that the S&P is an index, yet still behaves in a very reliable manner in printing these patterns. Most significantly, it fires a broadening formation through the evergrande scare, it tests the trendline inside of the broadening formation. It fails the retest of support and goes on a breakout below the trendline. It completes a broadening formation, ending the final tap with a clear period of consolidation (more visible on smaller timeframes.) In this period, it forms a perfect descending triangle into the trend line, fails to breakout after forming to price agreement (even though there is none as this asset isn't traded), and falls. All of this is behaviour I would expect from a traded asset. And, incredible S&P TSX (ticker: TSX:TSX) behaves identically. I've mostly charted crypto so, to me, this is absolutely amazing to watch unfold and has turned me on to trading stock and analyzing the broader market and economies very quickly. The price tests the 100 day EMA a couple times and cuts below. Watch for the 200 day ema - then we're doomed. DJI prints below 200 day EMA w/ death cross. I don't know why people are calm right now - don't you see what's happening??? We see it! We see it in the data! Warn everyone you know. I've been digging into the news and watching the charts, and it seems to me that there is this strange, beautiful, fractal-esque pattern in nature I can observe. I can say to my parents while I'm begging them to sell on the 13th: "It's almost as if you can predict bad news" and then the market moves right on schedule to keep the pattern forming. This keeps unfolding beautifully and I'm telling them what I see. A bear was born in september. I hope you welcome me to your family. I've avidly scoured all public data and learned about its meaning from m0 + m2 to many other pieces of public data available. I see it unfolding and it's beautiful, but there is no doubt in my mind that this will be the most catastrophic global economic/financial event witnessed in history. I don't understand the world anymore. I'm blown away by the magic I see in the numbers. And I'm scared as shit about what's to unfold. Here is my play: Cash is trash, but the markets are going to risk off. I'm making very short term plays in crypto right now with tight stop limits, only trading _INSIDE_ the trend line, not trading breakouts. I believe crypto will crash before Oct 17th along with other markets as investor confidence is rattled. Traditional stock market will likely continue to deteriorate, while crypto will have a faster, more worry-some fall near-term, but once people figure out they need a safe store of value, will boom. I will be holding USDC (not USDT) probably on an exchange other than binance, and try to be ready for a flash crash. At the same time I'm (in canada) setting up TFSA guarded stock trading platform to move all savings (already in a TFSA) into gold, silver, platinum, etc. I'll probably follow Michael Burry and bet that inflation rises soon. I want to be very careful as gold could move with crypto as people sell into cash before realizing crash is trash so I'm waiting for that complete dumping of everything onto the markets as they start to crash, and then buy there, and wait for people to start holding commodities and crypto when they realize their cash may not be worth anything. Through this period, crypto looks like a risk to fiat so I expect other governments to follow china and try to ban transactions with crypto and gold (as was the case prior to 1933 when fiat was introduced en.wikipedia.org) Housing will crash so we have the opportunity of the lifetime if we can figure out how to hold value and boost it in this event. The younger generations can potentially own a home after all if we position ourselves for this. Worst case (or soonest case, anyway): I expect, just on the data, a recovery into October that looks to retail like a real recovery while the rich dump their assets. Then, buckle up. We're making history. Best case (bigger crash later): The fed prints more money, the US takes on more debt, the economy booms in the markets but fails in the real world until another day when the cracks begin to appear again. At this point, I think enough people see what's happening that there isn't any recovery. The markets have already crashed, you just don't feel it yet.
SP:SPXShort
by decklyndubs
12
Sell for BTCUSD CRASH Q4 coming Bearish pattern , bearish pennant.. 1HR-4HR Chart bear flag forming from descending channel from the triangle. The bear candle is stronger from that drop rejection. Trade safe and it’s very volatile .. we should be expecting the big drop along the Q4 to crash the price. 10K is the strong floor target for the bulls opportunity to recover very hard; if the recovery didn’t happen then should expect even lower than 10K we will see. OCT 13th is the CPI Data Feds meeting for the inflation Should expect the Feds pivot of November 2nd if not then sometime around December.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
8
Ethereum pump to create high volume double top then crash?From the perspective of chart patterns, i expect this next pump to create a double or triple top type of pattern. I have cleaned up the chart and drawn rough lines to show what i anticipate will occur. The overall play is to short around 1370-1400 depending on signals on the smaller time frame and then wait for a crash to 1250 and below. This could take between 12 and 36 hours to play out depending on how slow price movement is. Technical target for the double top would be between 1120-1150. The lines are no means there to show exact price movement, just wanted to show rough trajectory and to emphasize the patterns.
Short
by sven101
US30 - Recession Outlook - Con'tI adjusted wave 6 on the current chart to the current downside move. Haven't been looking at US30 for awhile, but been focusing more on the S&P chart. Either way, the pattern is the same. Market is playing out, kind of as forecasted based on charts published months back. Are we there yet? At wave 5, the market was going "are we there yet?" Then the market shown that it is still strong. We had a bear rally where retail traders/investors continued to buy into. The buying-the-dip movement was still still going strong strong too, and the economy was declining but still not as bad as it seemed to be. There was still some optimism in the market. But all of that was perhaps short sellers taking profit at a key level where price broke a fairly strong resistance. The rebound above strong resistance on 1W above 31,450. Damn, this shit is real Now wave 6, it looks to me as the "oh shit, things are not actually getting better" phase. We continued the downtrend, posting a 2nd negative month consecutive bearish candle with a top wick that didn't break above previous candle body, a huge bearish body and very small lower wick. Are we going up? Looking at the 2008 crash pattern, we do see some ranging before the final drop, then recovery. It looks to me like a "we going up?" phase. Then price dips further to a "value price point", and market pivots, it will then be time to buy on a higher low, close back within the previous ranging price points. Just on charts, probably looking to see how markets react around 26,600, if the market finds a bottom. But I'm also expecting this time to be different as we had so much money printing. We're in an environment where we are rising interest rates to try to combat inflation, yet faced with a recessionary outlook. Also, with a pandemic which just passed, geopolitical events, war. Truly uncertain times.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by geneAnalytics
Summer BummerRally is done folks. Fascinating how perfectly the 21 April bars pattern fits onto the weak retracement rally to right shoulder. DJI gone off 1K is NOT bullish. SandP down 4%, NQ just tanked > QQQ gave up 15 bucks in a day. Can you say CRASH?! Yet I still see folks putting out ideas about new rallies to test ATH. Buying this 'dip' will only disappoint, lol. Do not be a bagholder! So many talking about "where it goes now the bottom is in" is pure delusion. This is a BEAR Market. Bottom is NOT in. Possible local Low in October? How long it takes and where the final low comes is pure guesswork. Might be... April?! Worst is yet to come IMO. Gotta have monster gaps down, trip limitdown halts, -3K days with true capitulation, VIX spike. This is NOT a good time to invest in risk assets folks. If you are not a shortseller then GTFO this nutty market. Big boys WILL take most or all of your money if you try to buy this beast.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
44
DJI - God Help Us All... Welcome to the Great depression 2022 Dow Jones industrial average index has lost its February 2020 support. As this support did not hold i am convinced that the oldest US index has begun the great depression, not recession but depression. You can already see what fiat pairs with the USD are doing. The run up was just phenomenal to say the least. We've been essentially parabolic since 2009, with the total run up since 1987 flash crash. Since then economy was on steroids. The first sign of realism came with the dot.com bubble. It was especially hard on the S&P 500 index which lost more than 80% back then. Then came 2008 financial crisis which was seen predominant in the DJI. After that it was just up up up, sideways and up. Covid dump just showed how laveraged this market is and sparked asset inflation on steroids. .... NOW ... Will see what happens. DJI could still drop by 1k points, but not much lower for now as it is expected to go into a retracement first, if it doesn't go already. This retracement could drag out for year or two before continuation down. Where you might think?... below 2008 bottom is quite realistic, but for that it can take 10-30 years to play out. Again its a depression not recession, remember that. We are clearly not dropping like in the 1929-1932, therefore i think we will bleed slower. Aftermath could be ... who knows... 20-30% of people out of job.... in 1930s there were around 25-30% of them on the streets. During DJI retracement there could still be a rotation in the stock and crypto market, with little projects reaching new ATHs, but still lets not expect to much, and rather realize that the US economy has POPPED. DISCLAMER: I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. TVC:DJI
DJ:DJI
by AVA37
17
Cryptos and bitcoin are crashing 69K was the high back in 2021 that was awesome. But the crash is coming. The big crash is coming and major crash.. the Feds are still going aggressive to fight off the inflation… soooooooo what’s next? When to buy: I suggest buy at 12K or around 10K possible we will see lower than that because 12-9500 area has stronger support and floors.. also please stop saying 17600 or 18K is a the bottom please don’t. The sellers are going under pressure from the economic reset so on the 13th of October should expect the inflation to drop if not will go higher and everything will crash a lot further.. US economy is still slowing down. When is the Feds pivot?: Feds pivot is a choice when the Feds will save the market or not we should expect it around the 2nd of November also December 12th. We are still in a bear market the huge crash everything broke the June lows and especially S&P500,NAS100 and US30 broke the June lows as well, we aren’t going to recovery if the Feds pivot happens. Please becareful and don’t trust the short buys because it will drop even lower. Like , comment I appreciate the support and reputation as you all know I’m only 21 years old I had 2 years experience of these. Enjoy your day and happy crashing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
3
VIX Weekly Rally?The VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index of the S&P 500 Index. The VIX is generally inverse of the Market's Movement, specifically the S&P Volatility is not stable for markets and acts similar to a greed/fear indicator for the markets. The Higher the Volatility (VIX) The greater the Fear VIX has been in an uptrend the past few months since the Bear Market Kicked off earlier in 2022 Vix Uptrend = Market DownTrend & an increase of volatility The VIX has been forming this pennant-type resistance and support, and now has been testing the upper ends of this. The weekly chart on the VIX is creating a breakout with Momentum Squeezing thru to the upside as well. TTM_SQUEEZE Represents price consolidation, and breakouts through momentum indications similar to MACD. We are currently seeing a flip to the upside in the weekly chart. This would be bad for financial markets and can definitely indicate another large pullback coming with little VIX Resistance above until $40 Zone. We have not 100% broken these yet though, so patience is key and seeing how price reacts around these levels is key.
TVC:VIXLong
by ZachSap
clear sell on nasdaqPowell came out in a short speech from the Jackson Hole seminar to send a message that the Fed will continue with its aggressive policy until it controls inflation, and will not change its policy. The Fed has started a tightening cycle since last March, raising rates by 225 points since then until today. The market sees the interest rate between 3.50-3.75%. According to yesterday's data, the US economy recorded the third negative GDP, to confirm the technical stagnation of the economy. The Fed continues its policy of raising interest rates, with expectations of a 50- or 75-point hike next month. But the Fed is waiting for another inflation report before making a final decision. Inflation data was released according to the personal consumption expenditures index, which is favorable to the Fed. Statements were issued by a member of the Federal Reserve during a meeting with CNBC, and he continued: Urgent: Strong data leads the movement of the markets and puts Powell in trouble before his speech The most important statements: Without price stability, the economy will not achieve an extended period of strong labor market. Inflation falls to the weakest link. - The interest rate depends on the inflation data received. Tight fiscal policy has been going on for some time. The rate of interest rate hike in September depends on the data received. Weaker inflation in July is welcome, but not enough to change our direction. At some point the Fed will be able to moderate the rate hike. We will continue to raise interest until we are sure that we have completed our work. - “Higher interest rates, slower growth, weaker labor market, and market conditions will reduce inflation, but they will also hurt businesses and citizens, these are the costs we will pay to reduce inflation. But failure to restore price stability means more pain. Powell cited the 1970s and 1980s when the Fed failed to respond to inflation expectations and launched a violent rate hike in 198, sending the economy into a recession. - Powell said that the Fed will respond forcefully so as not to repeat the tragedy of the past by entering the economy into a long-term recession. - "We are moving monetary policy to levels that will be tight enough to return inflation to an average target of 2%." "Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining monetary tightening for some time. Caution is now at historic highs, negating a reckless rush to loose monetary policy now." - Powell's speech was short and firm with regard to continuing to raise interest rates until inflation calms down. And decisiveness with regard to price stability, and closely monitor the incoming indicators. Markets respond to Powell: - US indices decline, Nasdaq declines 1.01%. The dollar index trimmed losses, reaching 108.138, after falling below 108. - After Powell's speech ended, the dollar index resumed the bearish path, with a loss of 0.80% at levels of 107.537.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ahmed-sajid