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SPX Bull trap?It is time to pause, I will look into and analyze history'because as they say "history does not repeat itself but it rhymes" I would like to present the comparison of the SPX with the fall suffered in 2007. If we take as a reference the fall of the Great Recession of 2007, it was a fall of 57% during 518 days that means 17 continuous months of fall, the situation was terrible. Extrapolating it to 2022, taking into account that the fall lasted that long and the fall was -57%, it replicates so far the trend and movements of 2007. Are we facing a BULL TRAP or should we rather BUY THE DIP? Today 20/08/2022 Best regards, good investment.
SP:SPX
by wallstreetstocks
Ethereum is crashing and broke downGlobal crisis concerns of the inflation and still on the price increase cause everything to collapse and to crash. The economy isn’t going well as it planned but caused it to slow down. Federal gov/White House brief about the monkeypox crisis. USA total over 14,000 cases of monkeypox. So far 12 deaths had been reported. Global total cases is incredible over 41,000 cases Same for bitcoin , cause of global crisis of the inflation still on the increase. 625 or below is a good buy to break off the bear; those areas has stronger floors for the bulls reversal
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
Bitcoin is crashing and broke downThe collapse started and along with the crash; bear rally already started weeks ago from mid 25K rejection. Bitcoin mining lost the value of 1$ Billion follow along the traders investors lost about $600 million. Global crisis concerns of the inflation and still on the price increase cause everything to collapse and to crash. The economy isn’t going well as it planned but caused it to slow down. Federal gov/White House brief about the monkeypox crisis. USA total over 14,000 cases of monkeypox. So far 12 deaths had been reported. Global total cases is incredible over 41,350 cases
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
4
Chinese Real Estate Large Cap IndexThis is an updated version of my previous "Evergrande + others" chart of Chinese real estate. Instead of including some smaller companies with longer price history, this focuses on large market cap companies. I weighted the prices against each other equally by their 42 day average, and then weighted that by the market cap: 1. Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) HKD 268.5 billion -2.06% Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited develops and invests in properties for sale and rent in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and internationally. It...See Company Profile HKD 2. China Overseas Land & Investment (0688) HKD 252.28 billion 24.86% China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment, and treasury...See Company Profile HKD 3. China Resources Land (1109) HKD 245.3 billion 4.88% China Resources Land Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, manages, and sells properties in the Peoples Republic of China....See Company Profile HKD 4. China Vanke Co. (2202) HKD 235.54 billion -11.14% China Vanke Co., Ltd., a real-estate company, develops and sells properties in the Peoples Republic of China. The company operates through...See Company Profile HKD 5. CK Asset (1113) HKD 202.95 billion 13.53% CK Asset Holdings Limited operates as a property developer in Hong Kong, the Mainland, Singapore, the United Kingdom, continental Europe,...See Company Profile HKD 6. Longfor (0960) HKD 177.07 billion -20.57% Longfor Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development, investment, and management businesses in China....See Company Profile HKD 7. Sino Land Co. (0083) HKD 91.07 billion 21.52% Sino Land Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, manages, and trades in properties. It operates through six...See Company Profile HKD 8. Country Garden Co. (2007) HKD 80.22 billion -49.28% Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estae properties primarily in...See Company Profile HKD 9. Greentown China (3900) HKD 40.51 billion 28.98% Greentown China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and related business in China. It operates...See Company Profile HKD 10. Yuexiu Property Co. (0123) HKD 29.82 billion 40 .17% Yuexiu Property Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, sells, and manages properties primarily in Mainland China and Hong...See Company Profile HKD source: fknol.com (Unfortunately they no longer sort by market cap by default. To view it you'll have to sign up for fknol's terrible website.) Here was the logic I used: 'a' = 42 day price average. 'b' = adjust b based on the market cap. if the market cap is larger, c gets smaller, market cap smaller, c larger. Market....a=42D_AVG.....b=a/Market_Cap_Billions --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0016.......94.14................0.3506 0688.......21.49................0.08518 1109.......35.14................0.1433 2202.......18.51................0.07858 1113.......51.73................0.2549 0960.......37.36................0.211 0083.......0.3542..............0.003889 2007.......5.662................0.07058 3900.......13.34................0.3293 0123.......0.09548............0.003202 (I had to fill in the table with dots so it would show correctly.) Now, for each row, take each market and divide by 'b': 'market1'/b1 + 'market2'/b2 + ... : '0016'/0.3506+'0688'/0.08518+'1109'/0.1433+'2202'/0.07858+'1113'/0.2549+'0960'/0.211+'0083'/0.003889+'2007'/0.07058+'3900'/0.3293+'0123'/0.003202 You can also exclude the second column, skip computing 'b', and instead divide the price by 'a' and you would have a 42 day average price weighted index. Dividing a price by an average would normalize it near 1, weighting each price equally. Does it make sense? Thanks for taking a look! Misc. Analysis: Total valuation, going by the info, is roughly 1623.26 billion HKD , which is ~200 billion USD. This is not an unusually large amount, but the importance of these companies is far beyond their numerical market cap. Chinese citizens and companies purchase properties around the world, so I think this price action goes hand in hand with global real estate, possibly with this index as a leading indicator. A large global surplus of buyers in the last few decades has pushed real estate prices everywhere to unreasonable levels and now there is a deficit of buyers. Any serious bailout will distort prices and at some point it's possible that the price action becomes useless. The CCP owns a piece of every company already so I think this would be the more probable route. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!
CAPITALCOM:0016Education
by fringe_chartist
11
Ethereum ETH - Indicating upcoming price dropThe price of ETH rises by a 100% in a period of 1 month after entering an uptrend that is likely to end soon. Ethereum is currently approching a strong resistance, and will be rejected by the upper dynamic resistance trendline due to high selling pressure in the confluence zone, this will cause a strong reversal and will start a downtrend. ETH than will break the lower dynamic support trendline and here will be the short entry setting the stop-loss right above the resistance zone.
BINANCE:ETHUSD.PShort
by jaypazzi
1
BTC ₿ REJECTS top of channel! Remain in shorts 👇📉!!!As previously confirmed, BTC has reached the top of the marked channel, swinging off a previously made HIGH. The rejection happened dollar-perfect from the previous LOW made during the last major dip. Volume continues to decline as the channel moves along a sloping support, but regarding the current market conditions, it is possible that we see yet another lower LOW forming once we break the uptrending channel. Currently, we see the price fighting to get past the POC of the range and as we keep forming lower highs on the LTF, we are likely to break to test the value area low. If prices reaches said VAL, we may have a scalp LONG opportunity on our hands for some quick money. Best regards, VOLK
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by VOLK-
Bitcoin - For Trading Not for InvestingWhen Bitcoin was trading at around 60,000 level in late 2021 and before that year, whenever friends, acquaintance and participants asked my opinion about investing into cryptocurrency, immediately I knew they may not know much about cryptocurrency. To clarify, I am not an expert in cryptocurrency, but I know its intrinsic value could not be calculated then and even today, therefore it is an instrument not for investing but for trading. Let me elaborate, as long as we cannot define its intrinsic value to any so-call an asset, it is not an asset, but an instrument for trading. When we get into trading, meaning, we have to acknowledge the getting in and out, out also represent to exit the market with either a profit or a loss, it is part of the deal in trading – we have to be quick when we make a wrong decision. However, if you position yourself as an investor in crypto, you will either always perceive it will break new high or hope that it will someday go back to its former glory. Throughout the whole tutorial, I will do a recap on how I have spotted this top here in November 2021. I have done this in another personal forum I have back then. I will go through that and it may seem like a hindsight view, but I will apply the same strategy to the current market using just trendline and divergence. Bitcoin Futures Minimum Tick: $5.00 = US$25 or $1.00 = US$5 Contract Value: 20,000 x US$5 = US$100,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME:BTC1!Education
by konhow
2
Deeper Network DPR Crypto Crash ComingDeeper Network DPR Crypto crash coming. As you may know Deeper Network refused an all expense paid trip to advertise there product to Sir Richard Branson at Neckerverse to get an investment from his Company Virgin. This meeting with him could of been great advertisement for the crypto and would of given future DPR crypto owners optimism for the future coin price knowing that a reputable company known worldwide wanted to meet with them and or invest. Deeper could of refused his offer and then told the community what the offer was if any, showing the community that they are a sought after up and coming crypto but but as a routine disappointment they did not show up with a lame excuse........ So instead of planning for this September crash with even a little good news and hope, they decided to just let the house burn down for the mining community. Because Deeper Network has a main investor insurance policy from there buy in of the coin at a price of .003 cents that is currently a 619.667% increase of there original investment with the current coin price now. So a original $10,000 investment would now be worth $61,900. So the main people have no concern but the DPR Genesis miner who bought in at .15cents+ is now at a negative -85% or more. I bet if the main investors where at a negative there outlook would be different. But it is not and only the little guy gets hammered like always.......... Where will this crash bottom out at well Deeper has a 600% wiggle room before they start to get concerned, well see what happens in the next 8 months............... Bearish News: Aug. 5 & 6, 2022 Deeper Network has turned down an invitation to showcase at Sir Richard Branson’s Block Chain Summit on Necker Island at the Neckerverse Showcase for a chance to pitch to the Virgin Impact team and other global heavyweight investors. The reason from Deeper Network "Cheryl, Russell and I ( Eric ) seriously considered attending the gathering but decided it was best to focus on exchange listings, research & development, and new product deadlines instead." Bearish News: Possible Token Crash Starting around September 6, 2022 thru the next 8 months, investors getting Deeper Chain DPR returned to them who bought in at .006cents to .02cents. Deeper is only allowing 750,000 DPR total perday from the miners and the invests to go over the bridge from Deeper Chain to the other two chains to get to an exchange and to sell. Some of the people have set up computer programs to keep dumping coins over the bridge first so they do not get locked out when the daily total of 750,000 is hit. There was 2Billion token allocated to sell but they only advertise 1Billion being sold. DPR given out already to the investors that crashed the coin the first time, there is an estimated amount of 3.3Million to 6.6Million Deeper Chain DPR being released each day to their investors for the next 8 months starting in September 2022 thru May 2023. Will Deeper fully open the bridge or will they try to control their investors cash out for a second time, well see what happens…….. How will the miners plan for this apocalyptic scenario of no longer being able to move Deeper Chain DPR across the bridge to get it on an exchange to pay for their expenses? I foresee another massive upset that Deeper Network will hush the investors by kicking people out of there Deeper Network community social groups when people complain and get upset like what happened when they lock up the investors DPR the first time without paying them back as was promised in their smart contract that had a hidden back door in the smart contract to reprogram it and to lock back up again. This is a lack of trust that I don’t think Deeper Network will every out live. -Crypto Whale Information: See the Whale news on my channel for their Wallet address & Location, as you can track for yourself who is a true supporter and who is a dumper…… (AMA said Whales are allowed in the project now) - Deeper Chain Community Governance - Currently being controlled directly by Deeper Network, not by the Community but thru a back door in the program (Verified on AMA) I don't foresee them giving the governance to the community within the next year or so because they like to be able to have fully control without have to wait for voting approvals, because the programing is far from being perfect.............. - 7 Validator Nodes on Deeper Chain, 3 have been verified to be in control of by Deeper Network DEVs, apparently they can control votes on the Governance with their locked DPR rewards- Wallet Addresses 1st 5C4vNVT5pDroqufEtXKYp3RKrNXVTHk9yqTeNNUSnJ6EbGGY ; 2nd 5CJDFR5RCMxPwVdzgH6JA9D7M625FEFKrdsJG1JnQVQdQkH2 ; 3rd 5HCG6MvAhYgLZdPoD1BVHEjgKee9n4AhMLKfq64VLiM4znuU -Deeper Chain DPR Crypto Burn Wallet #1: (Warning this is a subject Deeper does not like to talk about) There has not been a routine burn setup yet promised by Deeper to fight inflation . The only burning is est 21DPR perday equivalent to about .80cents per day!!! from the Validator transactions which they are calling a “Routine Burning or Every Gas Fee”. The old burning was every 7 days and burnt all the treasury wallet. Then they slowed it down to every 24 Days thru the Treasury and to burn only about 1% now. There is credit burning set up for the miners, which is false advertisement because they only burn 1% of the money paid to buy credit to increase mining rewards. The rest of the money is added to the treasury wallet for Deeper to pay their DEVs instead. Waiting for Deeper Network to provide Burn Wallet Address for all three Blockchains so the community can monitor what they are being told. Talking about this subject will get you band and removed from Deeper Network Social media accounts so be aware………… Deeper Network has responded to my concern about this saying "that 1% of the treasury wallet is burned each day" but I don't believe that's what happens, I believe that only 1% of each transaction that is transferred to the Treasury wallet is then sent into the burn wallet only during the transaction process, not that 1% of the treasury wallet total is burned. So once the funds go into the Treasury wallet once the 1% has been taken out, the remaining funds are no longer programed to be burned. (...to be determined) At the moment it is unknown how to see a total burn amount from this wallet but you can see how much DPR will be burned in the next 7 day burn period. -Deeper Chain DPR Crypto Burn Wallet #2: Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address from the burning during the Pico sale so the community can monitor the wallet activity. - Deeper Token ECR-20 Blockchain Ethereum Burn Wallet Address - Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address from the burning during the Pico sale so the community can monitor the wallet activity. - Deeper Token BSC Binance Smart Chain Burn Wallet Address - Deeper Network has not provided the wallet address, nothing would be in the wallet address that i would be aware of if it exist yet - Deeper Chain Treasury Wallet Address: 5EYCAe5ijiYfyeZ2JJCGq56LmPyNRAKzpG4QkoQkkQNB5e6Z (At the moment this is funded by the left over Validator Transactions & Burn DPR for Credit Score Increase, 1% of Transactions going into the wallet are Burned, this is confirmed) - Polkadot Parachain for Deeper Chain – not yet, no future plans at the moment (Verified by Polkadot Support) -10 Billion DPR Total: 6 Billion DPR will be mined within 25years (Verified on AMA); & 4 Billion DPR Belong to Deeper & Investors -Location of Deeper Network servers where VPN data is stored: Unverified, Programmers working from China, ect. , Government Jurisdiction over VPN data information unknown, Privacy VPN info shows data is kept by Deeper Network, time period kept unknown. - Deeper Network VPN / DPN equipment concerns: They say they do not keep logs of records of your internet access BUT!!!!! When you login to the device for the first time it makes you approve there two privacy agreements first. Terms and Condition of Use agreement under point Prohibited and restricted uses point #25 say : “We shall have the right… to monitor User Content”; The second agreement you must approve is the Deeper Network Privacy Policy under Data we Collect says “We may receive access to basic personal information from your social network accounts should you register or sign onto such services using Deeper Network Products or Services” (Why in the world is Deeper trying to collect your personal information?????????, also would they not also be able to see your banking information then...), then under section Data Retention it says “We will keep records containing personal data….. as maybe required by applicable laws (So then which governments laws are you under because there are countries that require no data collected) at the end of the day Deeper Network is not a Decentralized VPN because your data is collected in Deeper Networks Servers and Deeper Does not allow the Miners with the Exit Nodes for the VPN service to erase the VPN data on there own devices, even if their country allows for no logs to be collected. Will Deeper Network change their policy’s to be in harmony with what they told their community of NO LOGS/DATA KEEP BY DEEPER and ONLY DATA COLLECTED ON EACH EXIT NODE, apparently, they changed their minds…… Pico - At the moment the Pico is only good for mining with a Staked credit score, if the Pico has its own Public IP and is connected for months without being disconnected it will currently not get 10mb of traffic each day to get an increased organic credit score as an exit node, the network currently will choose a faster path out thru a Mini instead. So the Pico at the moment is not a good mining device if that's what you bought it for organically. This has been confirmed. -Company Info: -Deeper Network INC of the Marshal Islands (no office location there currently) Crypto Currency company that was set up as a shell company, filed on March 8, 2019 Entity number 100333 (Legal system mixed legal system of US and English common law, customary law, and local statutes; International law organization participation accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction with reservations; accepts ICCt jurisdiction) -Deeper Network Inc of Delaware USA (no office location there currently) Software Developer/ VPN / DPN , Entity 201816910575 6/14/2018, EIN Tax ID# 841835438, State ID 04799167 This is the company that controls everything. -Location Of Head Quartiers Office (5200 Great America Pkwy, Santa Clara, California, 95054) : The main temp office rental location no longer exists that is advertised and on Entity Documents the location is currently enmity and abandoned, supposedly working remotely from home and out of a shipping warehouse since the past two years or longer, unable to verify from the last trip to California. No new permanent office location currently that I am aware of that has been verified. Even from there past video of this office location you can tell it was just a temp location as if it was like one of those rent a cubical to work at temporary location. (A Few people have come and gone from the head ranks, not sure if currently accurate) Chief Executive Officer: Hui (Russell) Liu; San Jose, California Chief Technology Officer: Hui Liu/Chao Ma Secretary/Chief Financial Officer: Xiaoshuai (Cheryl) Liu ; Maple Ridge, British Columbia, Canada Corporate Officer: Adam Wolfe Lei Chang; Saratoga, California Chief Marketing Officer: Eric Ma (Thailand) (Working only part time now, another one of the upper ranks leaving, I believe the next person will be #3+ for this job title next) Chief Branding Officer: Yinan S. Software Developer: Arturo Jimenez Product manager: Kain Xu
by C-J_
Dolphins flee GFC2.0Chart panes: SPY, 240m price indicator: momentum midline oscillator Price exhibits, perhaps historic, divergence from the momentum oscillator below. This is just one of many signs concerning experts about the possibility of a global financial crisis. Managing risk in this environment feels ironic at times. It reminds me a Douglas Adams humor book from the iconic series "Hitchhikers guide to the galaxy". In the last book from the series, the earth's dolphins foresee the planets destruction and flee by spaceship. The dolphins, not wanting to be rude, left mankind a thank you note in the ocean, saying: "So long, and thanks for all the fish!" For now, I remain in the ocean and will suffice by downsizing positions.
AMEX:SPY
by gb50k
2
Chinese Real Estate -8% TodayJust FYI, an equally price-weighted basket of large Chinese real estate companies is down 8% today. Rumor is going around lots of companies in this sector are not paying interest payments and are on the verge of default. Maybe it could spill over into global markets? Dare I say it could be an outbreak in the market flu? These companies are much larger than Enron. Evergrande (HKEX:3333) by itself has 120,000 employees, about 6 times as many as Enron had. Maybe something to think about. Here is the symbol if you want to view it yourself: '1918'/2.912+'0960'/2.862+'2202'/2.623+'2777'/1.112+'3333'/1.527+'2007' I hope this was somehow useful. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!
HKEX:1918
by fringe_chartist
8
SHORT! Bears will win - We are in a downtrendAll macro economic data points to a downtrend. Yield curve inverting - the market is volatile and not seen as a safe investment. CPI is falling, Consumer credit is rising, DPI is falling. People are being priced out, using more credit than before, and saving less money. CPI falling will negatively affect corporate profits as well as their inventory stock rising. Expect 2 bad quarters ahead. This market needs to correct. I've been saying short all week. If SPY doesn't end negative today I expect a FAKE pump tomorrow before it crashes. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
AMEX:SPY
by otxoama
FEDEX SHORT (FDX SHORT) :(Hello, I have explained many things about the recession in my idea about the world crisis of 2023. And other articles such as the OIL SHORT, or THE BITCOIN CRASH (I will leave all these ideas linked.) But here I want to delve deeper into supply chains. I'm here again to show you a SHORT idea against FedEx , that company that is in the middle of all the orders in the world. What would we do without transportation chains? They are always in the middle of "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Transport chains like FedEx are very necessary, since without them the orders could not be transported. Now the words: "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Sounds me as a special effect, THE BULLWHIP EFFECT. You know, the BULLWHIP EFFECT, as the name suggests: "bullwhip", with a small change in the "whip", could cause devastating effects in the "whiplash". I recommend to search on Google about the Bullwhip Effect, there are nice videos on YouTube. The bullwhip effect in demand forecasting arises when each channel member forecasts demand based on information derived from the ordering patterns of an immediate inferior member. It basically consists in that consumer demand does not present significant fluctuations, while inventories reveal important changes, showing a decrease or excess in stock levels. If, in the different links of the supply chain, they do not handle constant and true information on their inventories and consumer demand for their products, the bullwhip effect gains strength, generating an excess of safety stock, which, as is known, radically increases the cost. , the end product. What are the causes of this effect? Lack of information between suppliers and intermediate buyers. Management without order in production orders, generating volatility in shipments. Possible periods without demand for the goods. Possibilities of obtaining wholesale discounts (Which generates time problems). Inflated or strategic orders. (Taking advantage of market conditions). Supply uncertainty. It can generate unnecessary orders. This effect is so devastating that it is very difficult to detect it really, but it is more difficult to detect it if we are in a "SLUMPFLATION"... I was not amused when the media said that the crisis would not yet come. OBVIOUSLY I don't want any crisis. What I don't want is for the crisis to be worse. They always make the same mistake, they hide the real data and say that the recession hasn't arrived yet. But in a few months the recession was sooner than expected. What is in the middle of all the BULLWHIP EFFECT? - Answer: "Transport Chains" Actually the transport chains will also be affected, just put on some music in a dark room, close your eyes, and think about it. Don't let your money foolishly burn! Bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble... SPLASH! I do not have much to add. You just need to do a little research on the internet, DON'T TRUST ANYONE, NOT THE FED, NOR THE PRESIDENT, NOR THE INTERNET, NOR DO YOU TRUST ME. You can only trust yourself and your research that you have done. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND PLEASE SEARCH THE INFORMATION ON YOUR OWN, BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. YOU AND YOU ONLY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR INVESTMENTS AND IN NO WAY WILL I BE RESPONSIBLE IF YOU USE THIS IDEA THAT I AM SHARING HERE. Thank you very much for reading this article and not closing it like others. Have a nice day, Esiquiel.
NYSE:FDXShort
by TheWaterBottle
8
bearish chart for BTC?technically BTC has never been in a bear market this chart shows every to on on green and every bottom on red the beginning of every cycle and the end as you can see BTC has never been in a bear market its only been in corrections unless you are a believer that BTC will never go bellow its trending support this chart show if we go bellow 1700 its a full on bear market for the next 4 years whit a recovery phase B PHASE OF THE WAVE if this pays out we will see BTC come down to 1300$ to then start a real bull rally in 2025 any thoughts? please any comments on this will be aprpeciate
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by joselopez4053
2
2008 vs 2022 I found a lot of similarity's between this crash and the 2008 financial crisis stock market crash. Quick TA summary: 1. We have the same kind of downwards parallel channel 2. The chart of the 2022 crash so far fits pretty well into the 2008 crash, the chart of the 2008 crash fits pretty well into today's chart. Quick Fundamental summary: There are so many reasons why the economy could have a meltdown. I wrote about it last year in November in my previous post, but there are other things to talk about now: 1. The FED changing the definition of a recession. The US GDP came in at -0.9% for Q2, which is the second consecutive quarter in a row that the FED published negative GDP growth. Here is how we actually define a recession, like we have always done: "Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time. Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy". I mean come on guys, these terms/indicators exists so that governments and central banks can change their policy's on time. But instead of actually changing their policy to a recession policy, they simply deny the recession and even try to change the definition of it. We have heard the "this time is different" enough times and it has so far always lead to real problems. This has to do with the fact that there are going to be new elections soon, so denying the recession is a convenient thing for them to do. 2. The biggest drop in Average and Median New US Home prices since 2008. April Median: $457,000 and June Median: $402,400 this is a decline of 11.95% in the past 2 months. April Average: $569,300 and June Average: $456,800 this is a decline of 19,76% in the past 2 months. 3. 40% of Americans Are Struggling to Pay Their Bills Right Now. "More Americans are struggling to pay their bills now more than any other time in 2022 — and possibly even since the pandemic began.For more than 91 million U.S. adults, affording typical household expenses is “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult,” according to data released this week by the Census Bureau. That accounts for 40% of the Americans who responded to the bureau's survey between June 29 and July 11. (If you include folks who took the survey but did not respond to that particular question, the portion is 36%.)" 4. Unfortunately inflation is not coming down, even though the FED is raising it's interest rates pretty aggressively. They told us that inflation was going to be temporary, but it wasn't. They have clearly underestimated the situation. 5. 80% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the last 22 months (from $4 trillion in January 2020 to $20 trillion in October 2021 (honestly what were they thinking, this isn't monopoly guys...) 6. US OIL en UK OIL have both dropped below $100. Every time this has happened we have gone into a recession, and most of the time the stock market had pretty significant losses. Gasoline prices are still abnormally high, as you noticed when you are refilling your car with fuel. 7. A lot of company's have been beating their EPS lately. However the expectations for EPS are like half of what the company's had been reporting from 6 to 9 months ago. 8. We are heading into September next month, which is statistically the worst month for stocks. The biggest crashes have happened in November. PE ratio's are still high so they have to come down. As of 4:00pm EDT Fri Aug 5, The current Shiller PE Ratio is 31.10. Mean: 16.96 Median: 15.88 As you can see we still have a long way down to go... 9. Food shortages for the following products: (1). Chickpeas 2. Wheat 3. Sugar 4. Avocados 5. Paper Goods 6. Canned Goods 7. Eggs and Meat 8. Pet Food 9. Baby Formula 10. Liquor Why Are These Items in Short Supply? "It’s because of labor shortages and supply-chain issues, from food manufacturers to grocery stores. There simply aren’t enough people to “make the goods, move the goods and sell the goods,” says Jim Dudlicek, a representative for the National Grocers Association. According to Parade, the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia plays a role, with supply chains from Europe heavily disrupted. Labor shortages also continue, with people still out due to COVID-19 or resigning due to low wages and poor work conditions. In addition, supply is affected by more people cooking and eating at home, a trend that started at the onset of the pandemic. “Demand has been very, very high,” Denis says. Still, she doesn’t think there’s a reason for people to stockpile. She pointed to lumber as an example of a product that was extremely hard to get for a while, but has become more plentiful in recent months, and the food supply chain likely will rebound in a similar fashion, although it may take time." 10. Micheal Burry wrote: "Dead cat bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 nasdaq 1-day rallies have happened during the 78% drop from 2000's top. 9 of the top 20 S&P500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top. Micheal Burry also wrote: RE: paradigm shifts/speculative peaks, the SP500 bottomed 13% lower than 2002's bottom in 2009, 17% lower than 1998's LTCM crisis low in 2002, and 10% lower than 1970's low in 1975. 15% lower than the COVID low is SPX at $1862. - Shiller PE of 16, nominal PE of 9. In historic range.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
11
US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession. Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
SP:SPX
by peacefuljustin
5
🔥 Stock Market Copying 2008: Will Crypto Crash Again?Over the last couple of weeks we've seen a lot of bullishness return to the markets. When I look at my own analyses they've been predominantly bullish. While I believe that there are reasons to be bullish in the short-term, the longer-term remains cloudy for both the stock and crypto markets. Now to the analysis. In 2008 we saw: - A downsloping trend line with 3 touches. The last touch was the start of the market crash. - A bear market rally of ~12% once oil topped. - A 48% crash in three months after the third touch of the trend line. In 2022 we see: - A downsloping trend line with 2 touches. Currently extremely close to the third touch. - A bear market rally of ~21% once oil topped. "History Never Repeats Itself, But It Often Rhymes" It's difficult to predict the future by only looking at historical events, but the similarities between 2008 and 2022 are very real and can signal the potential for a further decline. With September and October historically being the worst months in mid-term election years, I think it's very possible that we're going to see more bearish price action. As for crypto, the story will likely be the same since BTC follows the stockmarket. As seen on the picture below, BTC is still trading inside a bear flag. Bear flags tend to break bearish. Whether we're going to make new lows below $17.5k remains to be seen. Nevertheless, we should prepare for the worst outcome in case we see another >40% decline in the stock markets. If the stock markets will crash this much I wouldn't even be surprised if we will trade below $10k. Like mentioned before, it's hard to predict what will happen. Being aware of different potential scenarios can never hurt.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by FieryTrading
17