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Dolphins flee GFC2.0Chart panes: SPY, 240m price indicator: momentum midline oscillator Price exhibits, perhaps historic, divergence from the momentum oscillator below. This is just one of many signs concerning experts about the possibility of a global financial crisis. Managing risk in this environment feels ironic at times. It reminds me a Douglas Adams humor book from the iconic series "Hitchhikers guide to the galaxy". In the last book from the series, the earth's dolphins foresee the planets destruction and flee by spaceship. The dolphins, not wanting to be rude, left mankind a thank you note in the ocean, saying: "So long, and thanks for all the fish!" For now, I remain in the ocean and will suffice by downsizing positions.
AMEX:SPY
by gb50k
2
Chinese Real Estate -8% TodayJust FYI, an equally price-weighted basket of large Chinese real estate companies is down 8% today. Rumor is going around lots of companies in this sector are not paying interest payments and are on the verge of default. Maybe it could spill over into global markets? Dare I say it could be an outbreak in the market flu? These companies are much larger than Enron. Evergrande (HKEX:3333) by itself has 120,000 employees, about 6 times as many as Enron had. Maybe something to think about. Here is the symbol if you want to view it yourself: '1918'/2.912+'0960'/2.862+'2202'/2.623+'2777'/1.112+'3333'/1.527+'2007' I hope this was somehow useful. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!
HKEX:1918
by fringe_chartist
8
SHORT! Bears will win - We are in a downtrendAll macro economic data points to a downtrend. Yield curve inverting - the market is volatile and not seen as a safe investment. CPI is falling, Consumer credit is rising, DPI is falling. People are being priced out, using more credit than before, and saving less money. CPI falling will negatively affect corporate profits as well as their inventory stock rising. Expect 2 bad quarters ahead. This market needs to correct. I've been saying short all week. If SPY doesn't end negative today I expect a FAKE pump tomorrow before it crashes. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
AMEX:SPY
by otxoama
FEDEX SHORT (FDX SHORT) :(Hello, I have explained many things about the recession in my idea about the world crisis of 2023. And other articles such as the OIL SHORT, or THE BITCOIN CRASH (I will leave all these ideas linked.) But here I want to delve deeper into supply chains. I'm here again to show you a SHORT idea against FedEx , that company that is in the middle of all the orders in the world. What would we do without transportation chains? They are always in the middle of "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Transport chains like FedEx are very necessary, since without them the orders could not be transported. Now the words: "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Sounds me as a special effect, THE BULLWHIP EFFECT. You know, the BULLWHIP EFFECT, as the name suggests: "bullwhip", with a small change in the "whip", could cause devastating effects in the "whiplash". I recommend to search on Google about the Bullwhip Effect, there are nice videos on YouTube. The bullwhip effect in demand forecasting arises when each channel member forecasts demand based on information derived from the ordering patterns of an immediate inferior member. It basically consists in that consumer demand does not present significant fluctuations, while inventories reveal important changes, showing a decrease or excess in stock levels. If, in the different links of the supply chain, they do not handle constant and true information on their inventories and consumer demand for their products, the bullwhip effect gains strength, generating an excess of safety stock, which, as is known, radically increases the cost. , the end product. What are the causes of this effect? Lack of information between suppliers and intermediate buyers. Management without order in production orders, generating volatility in shipments. Possible periods without demand for the goods. Possibilities of obtaining wholesale discounts (Which generates time problems). Inflated or strategic orders. (Taking advantage of market conditions). Supply uncertainty. It can generate unnecessary orders. This effect is so devastating that it is very difficult to detect it really, but it is more difficult to detect it if we are in a "SLUMPFLATION"... I was not amused when the media said that the crisis would not yet come. OBVIOUSLY I don't want any crisis. What I don't want is for the crisis to be worse. They always make the same mistake, they hide the real data and say that the recession hasn't arrived yet. But in a few months the recession was sooner than expected. What is in the middle of all the BULLWHIP EFFECT? - Answer: "Transport Chains" Actually the transport chains will also be affected, just put on some music in a dark room, close your eyes, and think about it. Don't let your money foolishly burn! Bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble... SPLASH! I do not have much to add. You just need to do a little research on the internet, DON'T TRUST ANYONE, NOT THE FED, NOR THE PRESIDENT, NOR THE INTERNET, NOR DO YOU TRUST ME. You can only trust yourself and your research that you have done. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND PLEASE SEARCH THE INFORMATION ON YOUR OWN, BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. YOU AND YOU ONLY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR INVESTMENTS AND IN NO WAY WILL I BE RESPONSIBLE IF YOU USE THIS IDEA THAT I AM SHARING HERE. Thank you very much for reading this article and not closing it like others. Have a nice day, Esiquiel.
NYSE:FDXShort
by TheWaterBottle
8
bearish chart for BTC?technically BTC has never been in a bear market this chart shows every to on on green and every bottom on red the beginning of every cycle and the end as you can see BTC has never been in a bear market its only been in corrections unless you are a believer that BTC will never go bellow its trending support this chart show if we go bellow 1700 its a full on bear market for the next 4 years whit a recovery phase B PHASE OF THE WAVE if this pays out we will see BTC come down to 1300$ to then start a real bull rally in 2025 any thoughts? please any comments on this will be aprpeciate
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by joselopez4053
2
2008 vs 2022 I found a lot of similarity's between this crash and the 2008 financial crisis stock market crash. Quick TA summary: 1. We have the same kind of downwards parallel channel 2. The chart of the 2022 crash so far fits pretty well into the 2008 crash, the chart of the 2008 crash fits pretty well into today's chart. Quick Fundamental summary: There are so many reasons why the economy could have a meltdown. I wrote about it last year in November in my previous post, but there are other things to talk about now: 1. The FED changing the definition of a recession. The US GDP came in at -0.9% for Q2, which is the second consecutive quarter in a row that the FED published negative GDP growth. Here is how we actually define a recession, like we have always done: "Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time. Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy". I mean come on guys, these terms/indicators exists so that governments and central banks can change their policy's on time. But instead of actually changing their policy to a recession policy, they simply deny the recession and even try to change the definition of it. We have heard the "this time is different" enough times and it has so far always lead to real problems. This has to do with the fact that there are going to be new elections soon, so denying the recession is a convenient thing for them to do. 2. The biggest drop in Average and Median New US Home prices since 2008. April Median: $457,000 and June Median: $402,400 this is a decline of 11.95% in the past 2 months. April Average: $569,300 and June Average: $456,800 this is a decline of 19,76% in the past 2 months. 3. 40% of Americans Are Struggling to Pay Their Bills Right Now. "More Americans are struggling to pay their bills now more than any other time in 2022 — and possibly even since the pandemic began.For more than 91 million U.S. adults, affording typical household expenses is “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult,” according to data released this week by the Census Bureau. That accounts for 40% of the Americans who responded to the bureau's survey between June 29 and July 11. (If you include folks who took the survey but did not respond to that particular question, the portion is 36%.)" 4. Unfortunately inflation is not coming down, even though the FED is raising it's interest rates pretty aggressively. They told us that inflation was going to be temporary, but it wasn't. They have clearly underestimated the situation. 5. 80% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the last 22 months (from $4 trillion in January 2020 to $20 trillion in October 2021 (honestly what were they thinking, this isn't monopoly guys...) 6. US OIL en UK OIL have both dropped below $100. Every time this has happened we have gone into a recession, and most of the time the stock market had pretty significant losses. Gasoline prices are still abnormally high, as you noticed when you are refilling your car with fuel. 7. A lot of company's have been beating their EPS lately. However the expectations for EPS are like half of what the company's had been reporting from 6 to 9 months ago. 8. We are heading into September next month, which is statistically the worst month for stocks. The biggest crashes have happened in November. PE ratio's are still high so they have to come down. As of 4:00pm EDT Fri Aug 5, The current Shiller PE Ratio is 31.10. Mean: 16.96 Median: 15.88 As you can see we still have a long way down to go... 9. Food shortages for the following products: (1). Chickpeas 2. Wheat 3. Sugar 4. Avocados 5. Paper Goods 6. Canned Goods 7. Eggs and Meat 8. Pet Food 9. Baby Formula 10. Liquor Why Are These Items in Short Supply? "It’s because of labor shortages and supply-chain issues, from food manufacturers to grocery stores. There simply aren’t enough people to “make the goods, move the goods and sell the goods,” says Jim Dudlicek, a representative for the National Grocers Association. According to Parade, the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia plays a role, with supply chains from Europe heavily disrupted. Labor shortages also continue, with people still out due to COVID-19 or resigning due to low wages and poor work conditions. In addition, supply is affected by more people cooking and eating at home, a trend that started at the onset of the pandemic. “Demand has been very, very high,” Denis says. Still, she doesn’t think there’s a reason for people to stockpile. She pointed to lumber as an example of a product that was extremely hard to get for a while, but has become more plentiful in recent months, and the food supply chain likely will rebound in a similar fashion, although it may take time." 10. Micheal Burry wrote: "Dead cat bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 nasdaq 1-day rallies have happened during the 78% drop from 2000's top. 9 of the top 20 S&P500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top. Micheal Burry also wrote: RE: paradigm shifts/speculative peaks, the SP500 bottomed 13% lower than 2002's bottom in 2009, 17% lower than 1998's LTCM crisis low in 2002, and 10% lower than 1970's low in 1975. 15% lower than the COVID low is SPX at $1862. - Shiller PE of 16, nominal PE of 9. In historic range.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
11
US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession. Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
SP:SPX
by peacefuljustin
5
🔥 Stock Market Copying 2008: Will Crypto Crash Again?Over the last couple of weeks we've seen a lot of bullishness return to the markets. When I look at my own analyses they've been predominantly bullish. While I believe that there are reasons to be bullish in the short-term, the longer-term remains cloudy for both the stock and crypto markets. Now to the analysis. In 2008 we saw: - A downsloping trend line with 3 touches. The last touch was the start of the market crash. - A bear market rally of ~12% once oil topped. - A 48% crash in three months after the third touch of the trend line. In 2022 we see: - A downsloping trend line with 2 touches. Currently extremely close to the third touch. - A bear market rally of ~21% once oil topped. "History Never Repeats Itself, But It Often Rhymes" It's difficult to predict the future by only looking at historical events, but the similarities between 2008 and 2022 are very real and can signal the potential for a further decline. With September and October historically being the worst months in mid-term election years, I think it's very possible that we're going to see more bearish price action. As for crypto, the story will likely be the same since BTC follows the stockmarket. As seen on the picture below, BTC is still trading inside a bear flag. Bear flags tend to break bearish. Whether we're going to make new lows below $17.5k remains to be seen. Nevertheless, we should prepare for the worst outcome in case we see another >40% decline in the stock markets. If the stock markets will crash this much I wouldn't even be surprised if we will trade below $10k. Like mentioned before, it's hard to predict what will happen. Being aware of different potential scenarios can never hurt.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by FieryTrading
17
The Big Wall Street ShortIs it even possible to predict when a Black Swan event will happen? Is it impossible to time the market in that manner? This is what I will be attempting today , trying to time a stock market crash using fibonacci time dates in Bitcoin and the Dow. I think Bitcoin is a really important tool for world events , it's been running at a constant rate for more than 10 years now ,nothing shows human emotion more than Bitcoin and because of that I have been able to find amazing fibonacci time dates that can predict future marco events in Bitcoin which happen to line up with stock market moves. The Dow Jones fibonacci time dates are much harder to find , there is 100 years of data to go through so over the years I have tried to find the gold fibonacci time sequence but have failed to find a macro sequence with any significance. I do have two Fibonacci sequences that I’m currently following that could show us major macro events in the Dow jones. The first is the one you see on the chart above is the 0.618 happens to be the candle after a weekly all time high candle in the first week of January 2022, which was a major pivot to the downside. The next date in this sequence is 1.618 at the end of February 2023 which as you can see on the chart happens to be the date the Gann Fann and the rising wedge cross. The fact is that the Dow Jones is currently in a massive rising wedge ,it is the largest rising wedge in Dow jones history , I have gone over 100 years of price action and I have yet to find one this big. If this wedge breaks we could be in for the classic 50% historical market crash , on average the Dow Jones dumps about 50% during these events that can last over a year. So far we seem to be setting up for one of those crashes , let's have a look at past crashes. 2008 This market crash was 54% and took 504 days to play out , price declined 17% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1973 This market crash was 46% and took 623 days to play out , price declined 19% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1937 This market crash was 50% and took 392 days to play out , price declines 16% in this case then bounce and we get a perfect rejection at 8/1 Gann Fann. 1929 (Great Depression ) This market crash was the largest in history and was much more volatile but the pattern was still the same. We first get the drop then the bounce and a rejection of the 8/1 Gann Fann. So as you can see when we set up for these crashes we get a drop somewhere from 16-20% before a bounce and that is exactly what is happening right now , we dropped 20% and bounced , the stage is being set for a massive crash once this rising wedge breaks. The question is now when? Well for now have the 1.618 Fib date end of February 2023 that could be the date we would start to see a pivot down for the Dow Jones and start its crash down to 18000 area, this zone is exactly 50% from all time high which lines up with every other crash it also happens to be the bottom of the covid crash. I go over the idea of a big crash coming in this TA below , where I go over a very similar fractal pattern playing out around the time of the great depression. There is no denying that this fractal pattern is eerily similar to the great depression and the Dow Jones currently hit the 3.618 Fib level so pulling back to 18-19k will also line up with 1.618. If you zoom out you could see that the Dow is currently in a massive ascending channel. Whenever we get close to the top of the channel we find a lot of resistance or decade long consolidation . So using Bitcoin Fibonacci dates and two different Dow Jone dates I have narrowed down the possible potential window of when this crash will start. Late February to Late July 2023 this move could start happening ,it could look something like this : If this did unfold, where would Bitcoin be? Bitcoin has never been through a stock market crash of 50% and we already hit capitulation right? Well yes and no ,Bitcoin has two capitulation events before going back to all time high as you can see below. Now what happens is these two capitulation events is that we create a double bottom ,so it basically retests the first capitulation lows but after discovering what could happen in the Dow jones I believe that Bitcoin could put in its first ever lower low in the second capitulation phase which would look something like this sometime end of july 2023. So come late February 2023 we get a rejection off the 8/1 Gann Fann and we break the rising wedge , prepare for the worst and also the biggest short position of your life.
TVC:DJIShort
by Sporia
14
Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
TVC:US10YShort
by jackwheeler
Sell high pressure/Recession fearsAs we all know about everyone is talking about the recession. Looking forward NAS&US30 forward a big drop of a crash.. the economy is slowing down and recession still hold above 40 year all time high. Which means we are already and had been in the recession. Biden and the White House declined twice and economic isn’t going well. Monkeypox global emergency declared as well and spread all over the globe faster rapidly. Nas should be heading down 10K
FX:NAS100Short
by JoyBoyVegae
7
SPX ~6000 if this time is not differentThe SPX chart has 2 goals and one constraint: Demonstrate the VIX / VVIX ratio as an inverse momentum indicator for SPX. The VIX is risk adjusted" by VVIX and the ratio is more useful than VIX alone. "Useful" is similar to 'Statistical Power' and means less data required to identify smaller changes amidst higher volatility. Suggest that an ATH of SPX 6000 is "not unreasonable" considering the pattern and magnitude of prior large moves (corrections, bear markets, and very large dips) . . . Unless this time is different.
TVC:VIX
by gb50k
2
Housing Market Boom / Crash Statistical AnalysisHousing market's median home value (for new homes) peaked 2 months ago at $457k. Total growth leading up to that point over the last 59 years, since 1963, was $439.3k. The last two years accounts for a significant portion of all growth, while the last two growth periods displayed more growth than all of which occurred during the 44 year period between 1963 and 2007 12.4% of all growth has been lost in the last 61 days, or 37% of what was gained in the last 2 years. Following the bailouts in 2008 we began to see recovery across markets, but starting around 2010 an exaggerated period of growth began. After the covid pandemic flash crash, that exaggerated growth skyrocketed, leading to an unsustainable market economy, especially in housing. The losses we've seen over the last 61 days may indicate the beginnings of an extended period of severe loss if markets are left to correct naturally, if not artificially bailed out yet again.
FRED:MSPNHSUSShort
by dudebruhwhoa
1
Might be a Bearish day on GDP newsHey guys, Just and trade idea on the back of a massively strong day which nearly always gives it back the next day so i wouldn't be a buyer right now. I'm more on the side of shorting for another down day before the markets go to the higher long term down trend boundary. We have GDP numbers coming out and I don't see how they will be good must likely negative and recession confirmed hence why the white house wants to change the definition. Apple and amazon earning are the only wildcards, they could pull the market higher as most of big tech have rallied after earnings. The VIX & VXN both look ready to blast higher tho charts below. This gives me more of a downside bias and with 3-1 risk to reward worth taking. Please like and follow for more ideas and trade setups
UShort
by jackwheeler
The Next Housing Crash will be Catastrophic - Prepare Now!American and international corporations are keeping a large number of properties off the market as investments. These unoccupied flats limit supply in sought locations, creating an artificial scarcity as a result of central bank policies that finally caused an Everything Bubble. The number of corporate purchases of houses has increased dramatically. This has fueled demand in market, but if rental income fall as a result of the recession, corporate purchasers will start liquidating those same assets. As mortgage rates are rising, people are having a difficult time to allocate their income towards mortgage payments especially in times where rising food inflation is also a major problem for majority of Americans and if unemployment rates goes slightly higher then mortgage default will occur on a national scale, leading to another catastrophic housing crisis. In one of our previous analysis we stated, how inflation will peak at 12% and in case of a recession it is certain that inflation will stay on it's trajectory to peak while, Home prices will start correcting. Demand and Supply comparison between U.S Population growth and overall Nonfarm payroll employees against total housing unit supply Listing count of houses actively on sale have increased significantly in June by 18.74% According to the MBA's Refinance Mortgage Applications Index, applications for mortgages refinance fell 5.7% in June and have fallen by 70% year on year to the lowest level since 2000. PPI for Construction material have increased by almost 50% since 2021, forcing builders to shrink margins by 10-12% Conclusion: Since owning a home is becoming increasingly costly, it is prudent to rent one because real estate prices will soon begin to correct. NOTE: Cost of Farmland which have adequate water supply will continue rising due to current geopolitical situation. To leave this analysis on a positive note, We have picked an undervalued stock for you, Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) Looking at the future, their is one aggressive company that should be in every tech growth investor's portfolio which have the potential to outpace market, Unity Game engine can render ultra-realistic graphics, The next decade will of The uncanny valley and unity software plays a major role in it, Unity software are down 70% this year and trading 40% below their IPO value, The stock is currently at discount and from a long-term prospective and we believe that it will provide 80% return within 24 months making it a best buying opportunity. To this wonderful community, Be safe and be prepared, Thank you. ❤️
ECONOMICS:USCSHPI
by EQTSHARES
4
Big Shifts for Indices incoming Hey Guys, The US100 just broke out of its consolidation pattern and currently retesting should bounce off or coil during this intense week of earnings and news. As shown, I expect the price to retest the downtrend resistance line in yellow but it's a strong trend line and has the 200-day ma that will push them down. We Have so many indicators showing we are going to have more volatility coming. As shown below we have a head and shoulders pattern on the US10Y, we are hitting trend lines on the VXN & VIX, Silver is still falling and all major us indices have a bearish engulfing candle. So my belief is that we will roughly follow the trend outlined (A-Y) hitting our last leg down then possibly if gold and silver find support and the DXY hits its trend line again pushing it down the US markets could bull hard out of the downtrend as inflation price pressures are calming down ( Commodity prices and excess stock ) coming into play just like what happened during the 1970s. I don't think the economy or the stock market is out of the woods when it comes to inflation though like all inflation cycles it comes in waves and progressively gets worse each inflation pulse greater than the last. But there will be periods of relief in between these pulses, when we hit that Y leg look for divergence on the RSI, strong rejection off the support line of the downtrend, Silver and gold bulling, Vix & VXN overextending, Bond yields continue to fall, DXY falling. These will be the signal that we will bull out of this downtrend and wait for the next inflation spike probably start-mid 2023. Keep an eye out for contagion with Sri Lanka, According to the UN there are up to 69 countries all facing a similar Debt crisis that could lead to civil unrest and with the war in Ukraine not stopping anytime soon food and energy security is extremely fragile for these nations. Im going to be posting Charts on the silver/gold, US10Y, DXY,AUD/USD as well expressing these point more.
UShort
by jackwheeler