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Crash

STOCK MARKET CRASH MARCH 2022 (LOG4J)This is the key chart to understand the market. Let's break it all down and what is likely to happen in Q1 2022. First things first, it was not BTC which broke down first today, it was the stock market. The Dow ranged sideways for 9 months, not being able to break the high established in May. This has been highly reflected in the price action of Bitcoin, which was not able to maintain the bullish uptrend for more than one month at a time. Despite all the injection of monetary supply since March 2020, the health and uptrend of the stock market has not been healthy. The economy has not worked at full capacity, and a smoke screen of monetary policies cannot hide the state of the economy and of assets prices. Governments in Europe have just in the last four months increased the cost of energy by 800% in some countries, having a negative effect far and wide, not only to people and industries, but also for BTC, considering the cost of energy for mining. This also involved Kazakstan. The consequences of crypto downturn involve geopolitical events, that are now just starting to add up together and which might further affect the market in 2022. If you look closely at the slope (angle) of the 200 MA on the Dow Chart, you can see that it's flat. What is happening is that it signals indecision, and it does not happen very often in stocks. Just in the last month we had three tests of support, indicating that the Dow will probably break down in the near future. The compression of prices create large movements, this is an observed phenomenon in the market and also in physics. Stored energy will at some point be released, if a threshold is reached. That's what is now happening with stocks, and the difficulty to break the key resistance is indicating that the large movement will be down. The large portion of the correction will, according to my estimates happen in March. This coincides with numerous economic and cybernetic events such as the FED largest taper of bond buying or the LOG4J problem, which will further put pressure on stocks. The correction can range from the 0.618 FIB ($25,000 ) down to the 0 FIB ( $14,131 , down -63% from the TOP), which can take BTC all the way back down below 25k. If it happens, it will be similar to the dot.com crash with the internet companies, only this time it will happen with crypto.
TVC:DJIShort
by Toni_G21
2
Will S&P 500 retest an important former breakout area this week?As you can see from the chart, there is a very obvious line of resistance that was broken two weeks ago during the Santa Claus rally. A line that held as resistance multiple times over the course of 1.5 months. The S&P is notorious for testing prior breakout and breakdown areas, especially when it is as important as this one and it was breached during a genuinely positive time in the market with lower volume. I'm neither bullish or bearish on the S&P. What I do know is that the S&P is going to come back to that breakout point at some time. It's too important not to revisit because it caused multiple rejections and a lot of volatility off that resistance. That markets love to test these important areas. Price can go higher and stay extended for some time. Eventually it should correct down to test the line. Scenario A - Bullish: If price manages to get above the resistance and test the line and continue up, that's a buy. Scenario B - Also Bullish: If price bounces off the important trend line, that's a buy. Scenario C - Bearish: If the line does not hold as support, look for a rejection off the line, that's a sell. Do not use real money to trade my idea. This is just fun for me to analyze and share my view of the market. Good luck
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
4
The crash will probably start this year, but first: $5468 targetI'm predicting that we will get a correction to the september lows. After that, we will see an epic final run-up. Arround the target level of $5468, I am expecting a massive blow off-top. After that the trend is going to be nothing but down. The low of the recession will probably come to an end in 2025 (however I don't like to link prices to dates). Be carefull guys. We could be going into a recession very soon from now. If we get enough bad news, the blow-off top won't happen and the markets could fall any time from now. But I still think that we need some kind of blow-off top for a crash. The volatility index also shows that a big move is coming soon. It might be a great Idea to stay out of the markets. In my opinion we will most likely see it this year in the end of Q3/beginning Q4, but could be as early as early spring/now. The market is looking very unhealthy and I wrote about that in november 2021. I will make an update soon. (This is not financial advice!!!) (Do your own research.) Good luck everyone!!! Duursma, Yuri.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
1
One of the Most Important Charts You Will Ever SeeThe bond market often has an inverse relationship with the stock market since it is considered a 'risk off' asset. Bonds generally yield more interest for longer maturities. For example, a bond investor in a healthy economy would expect a greater yield for a 10 year treasury compared to a shorter duration. However, the yield curve can 'invert' (shorter term bond actually pays greater interest) when bond traders believe a recession is imminent. Since the Fed's reaction to a recession is to drop short-term rates to 0% and recessions cause 'risk on' assets like stocks to drop, the smart money will rotate from higher risk stocks (like tech, since it's future cash flows are highly sensitive to the cost of capital) and hide out in bonds to weather the storm and minimize downside risk. Yield inversion info: www.investopedia.com This chart shows the interest spread between 10 and 2 year treasuries in blue. Shaded vertical boxes show where the yield curve inverted in the past. The S&P is in red (at least I think it's red. I am color blind). Note how the shaded boxes start just prior to the dot.com peak, the GFC peak, and even the Covid recession. Currently the interest spread is heading back towards zero as the Fed is set to hike short-term rates to combat inflation, likely beginning in March. At it's current drop rate, the spread will invert in ~Q4 of this year, which means a recession is on the table for the first half of 2023. Keep checking back for updates as I will be watching this one VERY closely.
TVC:US10YShort
by HypnoticStrix
2
Is the S&P 500 About to Crash? It's getting close....The holy grail of trading is being able to confirm trend reversals. Using a proprietary indicator, I'm able to confirm, with a backtested over 90% accuracy a major trend direction change in the S&P 500. The chart On the left you have 3M candles. This is best for confirm a full blown bearish trend reversal as occurred in 2000 and 2008. In brief, if on April 1st, price is BELOW the green line, there's a 90% chance price will not only continue down but that the longest bull trend in market history has come to an end. So watch that line and that date. On the right you can see the 1M candle in the top right. It's already breached it's support. If it closes on February 1st below the green line, price is likely to keep going down. On the bottom right you can see the 1W candle. It's already clearly in a trend reversal. 1W is not long enough to predict overall market trends. Time will tell, but my indicator, I call the Tenoris Indicator, latin for 'trend' is highly accurate back tested going back over 40 years. If you're interested in it LMK.
SP:SPXShort
by TrendGuruX
XRP III Will the dips take longer and reach further? 🆘🆘🆘🤬Hello everyone, Technical analysis: - More than a year of flag formation has been lost. Breaking the bottom line of the flag and successful testing, which may result in large drops. - If the last hole is broken and confirmed by the 4h candle, we will fall even lower. Even around $ 0.3. - It is possible to return to the flag, then we should expect a LONG towards the top line of the formation. (Less likely) Fundamental analysis: - 20.01.2022 in the United States, a government meeting is to be held on the environmental consequences of cryptocurrencies. It's all about the energy that crypto mining uses. At the moment, miners use as much electricity as power all of Argentina: D - I believe there will be negative information. This will contribute to further declines. The meeting will be broadcast on Youtube. -XRP cannot be mined but will fly down after Bitcoin. Comment and like, Greetings
Short
by SayMoney
1