SPX - Drop remains on trackI originally posted this chart on Tuesday and on Friday, we remain right on track. I wish all my charts were this accurate.
Crash
Stock market crash Black Friday possibleThis is looking more like Black Monday in 1987 where the first two days were down days, then on the 3rd day it dropped like 20%. If this is the case then we may drop to either of the VWap levels.
As the price of Crude rises, other countries like China will have to sell bonds, then US dollar will rise and finally equities will have to fall. It won't make sense to hold equities as bond yields start rising rapidly
Bottom, trendline and crashing foundEnough said & I knew from the start and way ahead. 100% bull trap , incoming crash. As I said earlier inside 33K or 34K area.
See you at the bottom in 2024
Q3 Sell Off Bias Breakdown Part 1Hello, in this analysis, I saw the potential for this sell-off around August 8th. I just never posted it, but I was chatting with AI to see how many months, days, weeks, or years equaled how many candles. So, I picked the 91-day timeframe because I will normally be on the right side of the trend most of the time, as that is higher than the monthly, weekly, daily, etc. in terms of higher timeframe bias.
PART 2:
20 year treasury bond TLT CollopseThis Trade setup is called a 333 trade because it has 3 legs down and the 3rd leg has 3 bars down on these 3 month charts. I'm expecting a large final bar down over the next few days/weeks. It may end on 3 days of drop like it did on Black Monday, where the 3rd day had a 20% drop or it may last for a week or two.
BTC SHOWING A FALL TREND BACK 26K (INDEXS can fall)Thank you for reading our update. Please remember that this is not advice for trading.
BTC showing a fall effect since the star effect.
Technical view shows that there is a high possibility BTC will have a fall-down trend since the star trend hit. The last volume was not a building volume.
Very important
When BTC is not able to confirm 30500 USD, there is 89% that it will fall.
we are also in different times with world trends. as SP can indexes that can fall.
Market Meltdown: Wall Street's Shocking Symphony Unveiled!In the heart of financial dynamics, where numbers narrate tales and markets hum a melody, we stand on the cusp of a riveting chapter. The surge in bond yields, the resonance of conflict in Gaza, and the corporate crescendos echo through Wall Street, crafting a narrative that captivates and challenges.
As we step into this unfolding saga, each market movement becomes a note in a symphony—a symphony where every rise in bond yields, every geopolitical tremor, and every corporate revelation plays a crucial role. Join me as we unravel the Overture of Wall Street, decoding the melodies that shape the financial landscape and beckon us into the intriguing world of global finance.
Bond Yields Surge: Unraveling the Threads of Economic Sentiment
The recent surge in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, cresting above 4.9%, serves as a seismic event with far-reaching implications. Traditionally, higher yields spell caution for equity markets, diminishing the allure of stocks in comparison to the safety of fixed-income assets. The market's reaction, characterized by a 1.3% dip in the S&P 500, underscores the anxiety stemming from heightened borrowing costs for both corporations and households.
This surge in bond yields is not merely a statistical blip; it's a harbinger of a delicate dance between the Federal Reserve and the broader economic landscape. The specter of swelling U.S. debt looms large, and as Bloomberg Economics warns, the increase in yields could act as a drag on economic growth, akin to the impact of a Fed rate hike.
Geopolitical Turmoil: A Catalyst for Market Volatility
The geopolitical tableau adds a layer of complexity, with the Gaza conflict acting as a catalyst. The deadly explosion at a Gaza hospital and the subsequent cancellation of a summit with Arab leaders have injected fresh uncertainties into the market psyche. Beyond the tragic human toll, the conflict reverberates through financial markets, notably elevating oil prices.
Oil, the lifeblood of economies, rose nearly 2% to $91.50 a barrel. The Israel-Hamas conflict and optimistic outlooks for Chinese demand became twin engines propelling oil's ascent. Investors, already grappling with bond yield tremors, now face the added challenge of navigating an energy market rife with geopolitical uncertainties.
Corporate Performance: A Tapestry of Triumphs and Tribulations
Against this backdrop, corporate performances play a pivotal role in shaping market trajectories. Morgan Stanley's stock stumbled after reporting a drop in quarterly net income, emblematic of challenges within the financial sector. Simultaneously, Procter & Gamble's shares surged as the company reported a quarterly profit boost, underlining the impact of strategic pricing decisions in an inflationary environment.
The corporate stage is set, with companies wielding the power to either fortify or erode market confidence. In the case of United Airlines, a 7% early decline in shares following a cut in year-end earnings forecasts exemplifies the tightrope walked by companies in a tumultuous market environment.
Market Performance: A Symphony of Red and Green
As the final notes of the market day resonated, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Industrials bore the weight of a 1.3%, 1.6%, and 1% decline, respectively. The Russell 2000, reflecting smaller companies, faced a more substantial 2.1% dip. This symphony of red underscores the impact of mixed corporate reports and the tightening grip of rising Treasury yields.
The decline is not confined to domestic shores; the MSCI World index echoes the sentiment, falling in tandem with its U.S. counterparts. The markets, in their collective wisdom, are sending signals of caution, reacting to the interplay of global and domestic variables.
Deciphering the Market's Sonnet
In conclusion, Wall Street's current state is akin to a sonnet, weaving together verses of bond yield surges, geopolitical tumult, and corporate performances. Each stanza contributes to the larger narrative of market sentiment, reflecting the delicate balance between risk and reward. Investors must read between the lines, understanding that every rise in bond yields, every geopolitical tremor, and every corporate report shapes the verses of the market's sonnet.
As we navigate these turbulent waters, an agile and discerning approach is paramount. The future remains unwritten, and while challenges abound, opportunities await those who can decipher the intricate melodies emanating from Wall Street's financial symphony.
Stock Market Crash PredictionBased on how Bond yields are starting to rise tonight and how the US dollar is going to explode sharply higher without much resistance to the left of the chart, I predict that prices over the next 3 days will collapse all the way down to the demand zone.
There was a guy on youtube explaining how the global financial system works and that China and Europe will be forced to sell Treasuries adding more pressure to bonds and finally causing the stock market to play catch up to bond prices.
If bonds is paying 5 or 6%, it doesn't make sense to risk money on equities if it only returns 7 or 8%. The 1 or 2% delta is not worth the risk, so prices have to reset to reflect this new reality.
Plus October is the month for crashes so this alone could be a self full filling prophecy.
On Thursday and Friday, prices dropped on increasing volume and today it rose on very low volume. Smart money let it rise to see how much demand there is before coming in with aggressive sell orders to drive prices down. If there is no demand at this level, it will take less money to make prices move down.
Black Monday all over again on October 19 and Where SQ may drop The weekly chart of SQ showed a strong rejection of higher prices at Vwap with an increase in volume and if history is to repeat itself and we have a huge move down like we did on October 19, 1987 then I see prices going all the way down to $10 next week. Its possible for a move of this size because SQ did drop this much on the week of May 9, 2022. The $10 target is based on a measured move of the sideways range.
With so much turmoil going on around the world and with the bond market tanking, I think the equity market has a lot to catch up to in a short amount of time. Tlt 20 year tbond etf had a No Demand up day on Friday on very low volume so its very likely to continue dropping. With interest yields rising, something has to break and I think it will the equity markets.
Market Crash ahead and short opportunity is in.As mentioned in previous videos I am expecting a Market Crash to unfold in October. Here the current Chart of GER40
Will BTC Experience a 50% Crash Based on Ichimoku 2021 PatternI am sharing a critical analysis regarding the potential future of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern. While it is essential to approach such predictions with caution, I believe it is crucial to consider the indicators and make informed decisions.
According to the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern, BTC's current trajectory raises concerns about a potential 50% crash in the near future. This pattern has historically demonstrated some reliability, making it worth taking into account. However, it is important to remember that no analysis can guarantee exact outcomes, as the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by various factors.
Considering this pattern, it may be prudent to evaluate your trading strategy and consider the possibility of shorting BTC. Shorting allows traders to profit from falling prices, providing a potential hedge against significant market downturns. However, please note that shorting involves risks and requires careful consideration, as losses can occur if the market moves against your position.
I encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with trusted advisors before making any trading decisions. It is vital to consider multiple indicators, market sentiment, and other factors that may influence BTC's price movements. Remember, the cryptocurrency market can be unpredictable, and it is always wise to exercise caution and implement risk management strategies.
In conclusion, the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern suggests a potential 50% crash for BTC in the future. While this analysis provides valuable insights, it is essential to approach it with caution and conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. Shorting BTC may be a consideration, but please assess the associated risks and consult with trusted experts.
Stay informed, stay vigilant, and make well-informed decisions. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this analysis further, please feel free to comment below.
🔥 Your Altcoin Can Potentially Fall MUCH Further: WARNING! 🚨In this analysis I want to take a look at a dire market outlook which is not even that far-fetched. We should talk about the possibility of the altcoin marketcap (TOTAL3) falling another 50%, which would mean that the average altcoin will lose around 50% of its value from this point until the bottom.
Back in 2018, TOTAl3 fell around 92%, while it has only fallen by 75% this bear market. The difference seems small, but if we were to fall towards a 92% top-to-bottom decline this bear market, it would mean we had to fall another 70% from this point onwards.
I'm a big believer in the law of diminishing returns when it comes to crypto, but a mere 75% decline seems too little for me.
There's some bad news on the horizon which can make the altcoin marketcap decline by another 50%.
- Rising Bitcoin dominance.
- Rising bond yields
A 50% crash from this point would bring the top-to-bottom decline to 85% (bottom yellow area). This would seem to be more in line with the diminishing returns hypothessis.
Do you think we will crash more from this point? Share your thoughts and charts.🙏
Plug Power -> Another 10.000% PumpMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only focus on price action and market structure 🖥️
I am trading the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitaliz e on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Tesla.
Looking at Plug Power stock you can see that after the recent -90% correction Plug Power is now retesting a cluster of support zones from which we could see a decent move higher. Keep in mind that this is a very risky stock so keep your risk small on this trade.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
When the market moves where, and how, and if - these are all unknown.
The only thing which you can control is your risk.
- Philip Basic Trading -
Keep the long term vision🫡
🔥 Bonds Are Predicting A MASSIVE Crash 🚨The Bond Yield Curve, which can be calculated by substracting the US 2 Year bond yield from the US 10 Year bond yield, has been inversed for quite some time.
An inversion of the bond yield basically means that bond traders require higher returns on short-term bonds than on long-term bonds, which translates to short-term bonds being more risky than long-term ones. This only occurs when bond traders anticipate an upcoming crisis.
The inversion on itself is not necessarily bearish, but the "un-inversion" is very bearish. As seen on the white chart, once the line crosses the zero line from below, it has always predicted an upcoming crash.
With the Bond Yield Curve recently seeing a strong "bullish" move, it's likely that we're going to hit 0% in the near future. Consequently, this signals that a market crash is on the horizon.
Whether history will repeat remains to be seen. However, we had one of the strongest yield inversions in history, which doesn't bode well.
Do you think that a crash is coming? Share your thoughts and charts.
Netflix's Bullish Trend Ending: Traders, Prepare for Downtrend!Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on Netflix
In our close examination of NFLX, the streaming titan, a compelling narrative unfolds. Initially, a double-top pattern emerged between July 2020 and January 2022, followed by a significant breakout from the neckline. This breakout confirmed a bearish reversal, resulting in a remarkable 70% decline from its peak.
However, the plot deepens. NFLX recently revisited its double-top pattern's neckline while concurrently crafting a channel chart pattern. Adding to the intrigue, NFLX struggled to regain its former heights and descended below both the lower trendline and the dynamic support line, a classic sign of a sustained bearish trajectory.
Not to be overlooked, the Stochastic indicator chimed in with a bearish divergence, providing further validation for the impending downward movement.
Our target price? Set conservatively at under $300.
Traders, prepare for a captivating journey ahead!
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on NASDAQ:NFLX ."
Flash Crash will initiate todayDownside target 1 = 413 by 10/5
Downside target 2 = 408 by 10/6
Downside Target 3 = 401 by early next week (10/11 point target)
It will bottom there.
Probability of target 1 > prob target 2 >> target 3.
Set up is there, lets see what happens.
In Oct 11 418 puts
Last Down Week for Stocks. Last Up Week for the Dollar.Traders,
The dollar is now starting 12 weeks of green. You can see that today it has touched the top of its channel and that has acted as resistance. Additionally, the RSI shows that the dollar strength is now over-extended. I smell a pullback coming very soon. Possibly before the weekend.
The SPY (which correlates in part with other major indexes) has this Head and Shoulders pattern in play. Target down is 410. But as I questioned in one of my last videos, is it possible that the target down will be cut short - held up by the 200-day sma which closely correlates with the bottom of my channel? This will act as a huge area of confluence and give the SPY good support. It is possible that the SPY is held up from falling further at this point and this makes sense when looking for clues from our dollar chart.
A fall in the dollar would likely correlate to a bounce in stocks. I believe it is reasonable to conclude that stocks will end their pullback soon and we can expect a bounce upward at either the channel bottom OR our target down of 410. Though, I am not sure that the SPY will maintain its posture within the ascending channel, I do not believe this is the end of our upward movement and blow-off top in the stock market ....YET.
Best,
Stew
The start of a crash for COPThis is one of the biggest signs of a market crash for the stock COP. There is significant divergence on every timeframe, including a daily head and shoulders. this trade has multiple patterns the main one being on a Daily timeframe. Expecting this stock to drop to $112 with a decently tight stop loss, We have already taken this trade at $124.
📈 Crash History RepeatsIn the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, history often offers valuable lessons. Recent market events have some intriguing parallels with previous years, shedding light on Bitcoin's remarkable resilience. 🪙📜
2019: The COVID-19 Era
In 2019, the crypto market faced its own challenges amidst the COVID-19 outbreak.
Bitcoin initially experienced a price drop due to the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic.
The 2020 Resurgence: Learning from the Past
What followed the 2019 dip was a stunning resurgence.
Bitcoin not only recovered but soared to new heights, demonstrating its ability to weather storms.
2022: The FTX Incident
Fast forward to 2022, when the market faced turbulence due to the FTX incident.
Once again, uncertainty gripped the crypto space as prices took a hit.
2023: A Familiar Pattern Emerges
In a fascinating twist, 2023 seems to echo the past.
Similar to 2019 and 2022, Bitcoin is displaying resilience in the face of adversity.
Bitcoin's Tenacity: A Lesson in Adaptation
Bitcoin's history is a testament to its ability to adapt and overcome challenges.
The crypto giant has repeatedly bounced back from setbacks, surprising skeptics.
The Future: Navigating the Crypto Landscape
As we navigate the ever-changing crypto landscape, history reminds us that market downturns can be followed by remarkable recoveries.
Staying informed, maintaining a diversified portfolio, and practicing risk management are crucial.
Conclusion: History as a Guide
History has a way of offering guidance in uncertain times. While we can't predict the future with certainty, we can draw inspiration from Bitcoin's resilience.
As we witness Bitcoin's tenacity once again, remember that the crypto market is ever-evolving. By learning from the past and staying adaptable, we can navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. 🌐🚀
❗See related ideas below❗
Feel free to like, share, and share your insights in the comments. Your active participation fuels our crypto discussions and fosters a collective understanding of this exciting space. 💚🚀💚
Normalisierung beim S&P500?könnte sein, dass sich das Niveau mittelfristig wegen der Zinsen normalisiert auf das Niveau vor der Phase ohne nennenswertes Zinsniveau
Will this H&S on the SPY play out?Traders,
In yesterday's post, I hinted at the fact that it looks as though SPY's upward trend, irrational as it may seem, will continue, fulfilling my blow-off top thesis. I still believe this to be true. However, along the way up, there will be obvious pullbacks.
We now have what looks to be a completed H&S pattern formed on SPY. Currently, we are testing this neckline support. Need confirmation to know whether it will be a break or not. Tomorrow we should find out. Till then, I am watching this along with the DXY (dollar) closely.
If the dollar breaks its overhear resistance, we'll also have our answer here. This head and shoulders pattern on the SPY should then continue to play out. Watch both of these indicators closely to find more clues on further price direction in U.S. stocks and crypto.
Until the next update, best on all of your trades!
Stew
SPY (Stocks) looks to continue uptrendTraders,
For the last year you have heard me preach this blow-off top. So far, we've nailed it. Today, the FED decided to continue the pause. No surprises here and it turned out to be a non-event in the market. The FED knows that they are "this close" to breaking everything. Macro-economically, we are on the brink of disaster both nationally and globally. Many people know this both logically and instinctively. Still the market will go against all odds and price stocks irrationally. This is happening. And my blow-off top is playing out perfectly!
The dollar has had 9 straight weeks of green candles. Time to take a rest.
The VIX hit a two year low this last week and remains suppressed.
Dollar down + VIX down = Markets UP!
Additionally, you can see from a technical perspective indicators that continue to support my blow-off top thesis:
Notice Elliot Wave. We are on the final wave now.
Notice that trendline (wave 5). We are still above that.
Notice Ichimoku cloud is green and beneath us.
Notice the 50 candle moving avg below us giving us support.
Notice the green area of support below us.
I am not telling any one of you that you are wrong if you believe we will eventually go down. I agree with you. But before that? BLOW-OFF TOP!
Best in all your trades,
Stew
Neo 50-60% crash 🩸 incoming It's failed 📌 breaking and closing postive on recent top 🔝
Expecting pump towards $8.5-10
Possible wick towards $12-14
if wick turned as closing above $14 weekend postive sign ☢️
Then this article invalid 📌 my long term article get's invalid 📌
If this get valid my long term article get's invalid 📌
But present I am completely bearish 📍
Expecting qick pump towards $10
Drop 🩸 towards $3.2-4.3
Based on drop we can confirm bottom present target's are not bottom target 📌
I will update you
Just follow article idea 🙂 💡 give boosting 🚀
