Bears are in full control of SILVER. Capitulation is coming.Ladies and gentlemen,
Today my bear-radar is on FOREX.
Supply estimation :
About 1.5 million tons of silver have been mined from the earth over the course of human history.
Is Silver a store value in case of economic crash ?
During 10 years, Silver was in a massive bullrun. The 5th wave, in EW theory, shows an over-extension of the 3rd. The over-extension is 2.618 which signals, on a monthly timeframe, a Bubble-market. Crash are generally worst in term of price and time than the precedent bubble : the last 10 years have shown the power of the bears in this volatil market. For now, Silver looks way more bearish than gold.
Technical analysis :
The price is currently consolidating at the D point of the EW's descending triangle. Volatility is normally compressed and the pattern is ready to play out. That type of triangle breakdown approximately 70% of the time. It's generally a very simple trade if you wait the confirmation of the break. On this trade we are anticipating this breakdown and shorting the current resistance.
- RSI shows hidden bearish divergence and monthly bear-market area.
- ABC needs to be completed by 1:1 extension on logscale.
Type of market : Irrational (Crash).
Type of trade : Continuation (speculation+).
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DISCLAIMER : I'm not a financial advisor. I can't be responsible of your losses. You trade at YOUR OWN risk.
Crashcycle
BEARISH CASE CRASH 1929 /1987 THE CHART POSTED IS THAT OF THE BEARISH CASE .THAT THE SIDEWAYS MOVED FROM JAN 2018 ENDED A TRIANGLE IN OCT 2019 FOR MAJOR WAVE 4 .IF THIS CORRECT THEN THE SP WOULD SEE TWO TARGETS FIST IS 2334 AT A .382 1987 MODEL THE ALT IS THE SP WOULD SEE 1708. I DO NOT SEE THE DROP SO FAR AS PANIC BASED ON TRIN OR VIX I AM STARTING TO GET TARGETS IN THE VIX AT 59
Use ES RSI / Price divergence to predict US stock market crashPurpose of the observation:
Use ES weekly chart RSI /Price Divergence to continuously monitor US market and predict the crashing timing.
S&P500 ES (between 11-Dec-06 and 28-May-07) RSI diverged from price.
S&P500 ES (between 28-May-07 and 08-Oct-07) RSI diverged from price again. The US stock market crashed from that day.
S&P500 ES (6-Oct-08 and 02-Mar-09) RSI diverged from price, indicating the bottom of the US stock market.
TSLA reversal at perfect 300% fib ext may signal market top? Unbelievable how TSLA was rejected precisely at historic monthly/weekly chart chart 300 fib extension (on linear calc, not log scale). Not only are technicians giving more weight to linear fib extension levels (incorrectly I may add) but this could also signal market top? Watch NFLX for clues in coming weeks. MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO WATCH FED RESERVE LIQUIDITY INJECITONS on the FRED website as that has >99% correlation now.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Chinese New Year - massive dump is most probably scenario !!!RSI is hitting the upper line, which never failed in BTC history to predict imminent crashing event.
On the other hand, talking about fundamental analysis, Chinese New Yea r event is going to happen in two weeks.
Historically, every January , BTC has had great price rise movements (5-10%) between 3th-7th January and massive DUMPS a few days later as you can check it out here:
1. 2015 (14 January) - Dump from 320$ to 150$, which is -50%
2. 2016 (16 January) - Dump from $460$ to $360$, which is -20%
3. 2017 (11 January) - Dump from $1120 to $770, which is -35%
4. 2018 (16 January) - Dump from 17500$ to $9700, which is -45%
5. 2019 (10 January) - Dump from 4000$ to $3500, which is -15%
6. 2020 (?)
Why this happens ? Because Chinese New Year , which is like western Xmas seasonal sell off, but much bigger. This massive dumps happens 10-15 days before Chinese New Year date.
In 3-7 days we will see how much % BTC will drop . My best is 30% = $5,000, reaching out the bottom at early Spring ($3,000) right before long trend reversal.
Gold... Let's talk about cycle ! Hello guys,
Today is a magic day, I have waited to post you this trade for months. The last big guys on my radar are SP500 and NQ but there are not ready for now !
So about Gold : After years of consolidation (first a bottom range, then a breakout). Gold has finally reach today the magic 0.618fibs and complete, at the same time a perfect 1.23 fib extension on logical to achieve his ABC correction of a "potential" major B wave. If you want to compare with crypto, BTC after falling to 3300$ had reach this 0.618 too and then fall around 50%.
"Potential" because at the time of writing, it's more or less impossible to predict the exact religion of the C, but one thing is sure for me : in this price structure, there is now a perfect trade with low-risk/high-gains ratio. A ratio with potential more than 1/10 reward.
Indicator confirmation : RSI shows bearish divergence with potential H&S.
If you like the idea, please support my (free) work with likes, comments, follows and shares !
Feel free to ask additional question. I'm always trying to answer you under my char or in PM.
AGAIN THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT, WE ARE NOW MORE THAN 1500 !
In description you will find my others actives trades which are still in play for now ! (BTC, GBP, Silver, stocks)
DISCLAIMER : I'm not financial advisor. I can"t be responsable for your losses. You trade at your own risk. And short is always risky ! I'm do it for my personal entertainment.
BTC Crash every January (-15 to -50%)As you can check it out here:
1. 2015 (14 January) - Dump from 320$ to 150$, which is -50%
2. 2016 (16 January) - Dump from $460$ to $360$, which is -20%
3. 2017 (11 January) - Dump from $1120 to $770, which is -35%
4. 2018 (16 January) - Dump from 17500$ to $9700, which is -45%
5. 2019 (10 January) - Dump from 4000$ to $3500, which is -15%
6. 2020 (?)
In 10 days we will see how much % BTC will drop. My best is 30% = $5,000, reaching out the bottom at early Spring ($3,000) right before long trend reversal.
This is why BTC will drop to $3.000.doji pattern with low peak 2019 volume record bearish longterm trend
. 3 days prior to Xmas Day Selloff
. Bearish Cross on 3-Day ( only third time in BTC 's history, all previous ones set up a new midterm-6months bearish market with 50% losses )
. Bulls shorted at 7500 peak three days ago achieving 15% gains :dollar:
Only men blinded by pigheadedness wouldn't see the massive dump that it's comming.
BTC DOWNtrend is REALWe pumped from 7.400 to 9.600 (29%) two months ago, but the bear trendline kept his downtrend :downtrend: continued.
24h ago, BTC hit 6.500 following a (15%) pump wave til 7.500 peak. Nice short profits, now back to the main longterm trend.
Bulls are enjoying a small flash pump which is necessary in any trend (up or down) in order to short and continue the trend.
BTC trend remains the same; downtrend .
Most FA and TA, even the mainly one 200EMA, are still intact. These indicators explain how BTC will hit 3k :downtrend: by early Spring.
horterm: downtrend ($6800)
Midterm: downtrend ($5900)
Longterm: downtrend ($3000) - March 2020
6K is imminent, $5.000 soon.As you can see BTC is repeating the same pattern which was played out the previous year, just quicker.
if 7.050 is broken, which is most probably scenario, then 6k will be displayed for a few days as the new support .
The chart is showing up 200EMA indicator , the only reliable indicator for BTC .
This idea displays an unavoidable scenario: bulls are doing their best to stop the price crash without luck. BTC will drop to $5.000 in the following weeks (1-2).
On the other hand the volume is decreasing, which supports the idea about sideway trading = further price crash.
As previously discussed, 200EMA is so far away, minning cost s for most machines are around 3k, and otherwise, bear in mind about minners have been able to still minning with losses for an average 6months according to previous halvings.
In a nutshel, most of indicators show up strong SELL signals.
There's a huge descending triangle which has been forming when BTC hit 14k 5 months ago, this retracement was expectable.
Furthermore, there's an special interest for whales about stretching out the bottom ($4.000) in order to make bigger gains in late 2020 (Expect a cup and handle pattern which plays the keyrole for trend switcher).
BTC probably will drop to 6k in the following day/s and if that happens, we can talk freely about 5k before Xma s.
Open shorts whenever you got a profit (even if that's less than 1%) while you can do it. Stop losses = 1%.
BTC repeating patterns, what a surprise. 5k in 1-2 weeks !!!!!As you can see BTC is repeating the same patter n which was played out the previous year, just quicker.
if 7.100 is broken, which is most probably scenario, then 6k will be displayed for a few days as the new support .
The chart is showing up 200EMA indicator, the only reliable indicator for BTC .
This idea displays an unavoidable scenario: bulls are doing their best to stop the price crash without luck. BTC will drop to $5.000 in the following weeks (1-2).
On the other hand the volume is decreasing, which supports the idea about sideway trading = further price crash.
As previously discussed, 200EMA is so far away, minning costs for most machines are around 3k, and otherwise, bear in mind about minners have been able to still minning with losses for an average 6months according to previous halvings.
In a nutshel, most of indicators show up strong SELL signals.
There's a huge descending triangle which has been forming when BTC hit 14k 5 months ago, this retracement was expectable.
Furthermore, there's an special interest for whales about stretching out the bottom ($4.000) in order to make bigger gains in late 2020 [/b (Expect a cup and handle pattern which plays the keyrole for trend switcher).
BTC probably will drop to 6k in the following day/s and if that happens, we can talk freely about 5k for mid December .
Open shorts whenever you got a profit (even if that's less than 1%) while you can do it. Stop losses = 1%.
BTCUSD: Further decline imminent, Accumulation phase.Please leave feedback and opinions if you disagree I'm open to criticism.
like or follow if you agree. And I'll return the favor.
The above chart is based on the line break technical analysis.
I have drawn out the forcasting Bollinger band path of movement.
1 day chart we have bounced off the 20 day moving average, we are now below both the 20 and 50 day moving average, if Bitcoin attempts a recovery we won't see $10,000 again. 10k is gone. The 20 day moving average has become strong resistance and we are heading down further for accumulation prior to halving in May.
US 30 Bear Trend: Megaphone Tar Double Bottom Crash Landing SiteUS Equities in downtrend off ATH from July. Price action strongly mimics last year's selloff behavior. Pull chart right to see the 2018 Megaphone. Targets in chart are determined by TL defined by these Megaphones. Price labels are estimates and actual prices of course will vary; past performance is no guarantee of future results!
2019 Megaphone is Bigger and the subsequent Great Drop will be deeper. Currently trades near top of retracement in 'h' pattern which Time Cycles (green ribbon) suggest should complete on or about 14 August, coinciding with Full Moon on 15 August. We got a 62% retrace in NQ and ~50% in Dow. Expect to rollover at or near 26500, has traded to 26400 so far, maybe already done; or might have one push left, exact price is chance.
Near-term bottom of the 'h' right leg should end up at or around 24750 +/- 80 pips on or about Monday, 26 August by Time Cycle, coinciding closely with New Moon on August 30, when price should rally a final time. Exact price is chance. Expect a monster relief rally there until 14-17 September, coinciding with Full Moon on 14 Sep, to around 25800 +/- 200 pips; these rallies carry index above the 'h' hump, should get to the upper TL on megaphone. Again, exact price is due entirely to chance. Apres ca; la deluge.
The Big Sell may commence on or about 17 September (Constitution Day, and the 167th anniversary of the Antietam battle, AKA Sharpsburg, after the Full Moon.
www.history.com
Selling may be expected to last for six weeks in an unrelenting downdraft, culminating in a panic crash to a lower low than 24 Dec, and forming a giant annual 'h' terminating on or about Tuesday, 29 October, coinciding with the New Moon on Monday, 28 October.
NB: IMO it is not coincidental that 28/29 October 1929 were also on a Monday and Tuesday; eerily the waning Moon cycle ended on 30 October 1929, with New Moon on 31st.
www.calendar-12.com
"Black Magic!" you say; but biologically, these patterns are borne out time and again by history; the madness of crowds and human mood is definitely influenced by Circadian Rythym, and closely tied to Lunar Phasing. Gravity waves have been detected on the floor of the NYSE, LOL!
The negative impulse should form a true Elliott wave 5-wave impulsive pattern with three major selling waves and two weak countertrend waves. I did not show these in chart for clarity, as we approach the event future ideas I will publish these waves as they unfold.
As always, this is just another addle-pated, crackpot idea and clearly does not constitute any sort of investment advice.
That being said; I must observe I accurately predicted the May ABC correction and subsequent ATH, see published links below.
We are currently in Distribution Phase of the final leg of a monster bull market, so please: Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Using TIME FIBONACCI to predict the next MARKET CRASHUsing TIME FIBONACCI to connect the crash of 2000 (DOT COM BUBBLE) and the crash of 2008 (HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE) we get a warning sign signaling to August 2019 at 2.5 Fibonacci being a significant date in the stock market and also June 2020 being a significant date as well at 2.618 Fib
It's either the beginning of the crash or the end of the crash and an entry point for investors.
For more info and free education, visit www.TopTradingSignals.us