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Creditspread

Simple Credit Indicator to Watch Out for Equity InvestorThere is a classic saying that credit markets tend to lead equity markets. The rationale is that credit investors are solely more concerned about downside risk (as they worry whether coupons will be paid and whether they will get their principal back at maturity) and measure risks and determine spreads - over the risk free/benchmark rate - by factoring in the probability of default into the spreads amongst other factors. While equity investors, given their ability to participate on the upside as opposed to debt/credit investor, tend to be more forward looking with an optimistic bias (glass half full attitude). Hence, credit tends to turn first when risk is slowly bubbling in the cauldron. That's what I've been told anyway. Without further ado, if you refer to the chart published, you will be able to see how credit has played out during the past few crisis. Data used are S&P500 and ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (inverted)
TVC:SPX
by RinjaniCapital
2
FB - RSI Overbought on daily and weekly chartsHey Traders, I am leaning more neutral on FB for earnings as it has already made its expected move before earnings (6%). On Friday, July 23, 2021 there was some notable buying of 33,323 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Friday, July 30, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8%, so 392 bullish or 348 bearish. Put call ratio for 7/30 is .67. An august 20 390/420 call credit spread ($4.25 credit received) would be a good ER play. Good luck!
NASDAQ:META
by hockeysniper
Disney Short - Rejection of EMA's / Credit Spread TradeI am looking at entering a short position on Disney (DIS) via a call-credit spread because of a few criteria that are present within the chart. First and foremost, on the daily chart, there is a consistent downtrend present since March 8th of this year, characterized by constant rejections of the 10, 25, and 50 exponential moving averages. I will be selling to open a vertical credit spread on the call side which will put theta in my favor and gave me negative delta. As such, my breakeven will continuously rise, and by expiration, I will hit full profit as long as DIS is anywhere below $180.00 / share. The breakeven point throughout this trade is the blue ray that I've drawn from todays date up until my contract expiration, which is on July 16th. STO - July 16th, 180 C BTO - July 16th, 185 C Greeks: Delta: About -$14.00 as of 06/23/21 Theta: (Working for me) - $1.60 Stochastics are showing signs of life to the positive side, which is fine as I am scaling into my short position. Not particularly worried about a massive move upwards. I am looking for a price target of $167.00-ish, but will take profits earlier if the need arises. I will stop out above $180.00.
NYSE:DISShort
by PureDelta
$TAL is oversold, bullish spread with 72% PoP 33% profit #optionLong time waiting for a pullback at this territory.... Today RSI breaking up, volume arrived, but IVR is still very high. Optimal for some credit put spread. Max profit: $250 Probability for 50% of Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 33% Req. Buy Power: $750 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 80 Expiry: 22 days Sell 2 TAL Jul16' 22.5 Put Buy 2 TAL Jul16' 17.5 Put Credit Put spread for 1.25cr each Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.44db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:TALLong
by TanukiTrade
1
$EDU short put vertical 73% PoP for credit at support$EDU short put vertical 73% PoP for credit at support New Oriental Education & Tech Group had a big move and a big correction. It's time to playing some bullish move. Weekly timeframe: Oversold on weeky and on daily too, sitting on the bullish trendline. Daily timeframe: Oversold too, bullish divergence. Playing short put vertical here, because IVR is relative high: 60. Max profit: $236 PoP50: 73% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $764 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 60 (relative high) Expiry: 24 days Buy 4 EDU Jul16' 5 PUT Sell 4 EDU Jul16' 7.5 PUT Short put spread for 0.6cr each, because IVR is relative high. COMMENT: Because of very low RSI and daily divergence it could be a good choice into my investment bag/portfolio too. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~27% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.20db. Probability of profit this way: ~73%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:EDULong
by TanukiTrade
MRNA Bear Call spreadSold 187.5/190 call spread 8 DTE, 20% ROI, 6.25% above underlying at fill MRNA hourly chart at strong aggressive imbalance at hourly RBD zone, at 4h DBD zone Strong imbalance above it at the 186 liquidity shelf. At Hourly trend is up, removing supply zones, running into the 4h zone. Anticipated direction is sideways from the 4h interaction and strong selling imbalance Hourly candles are getting smaller and tighter as rally continues, but still in an uptrend. I'm seeing Last price print at .58 and I'm not sure who the hell is getting those prices because I never seem to be able to.
NASDAQ:MRNAShort
by claypuzzle
1
PYPL Bear Call spread sold PYPL 270/272.5 for 20% roi, 9DTE. Testing supply shelf that pushed to new lows. Backfill of body gap. Potentially at top of channel range. Previous high has spikes back to fill a gap so the safer play was to wait for a price test above 259, which it just did There were aggressive sellers at the 262 at one point. My bet is that they want to defend their shorts. Spread sold at next hourly supply in Yellow. Challenging the market to battle through the 261/266 zone and hold into the 270 zone by and through expiration next week
NASDAQ:PYPLShort
by claypuzzle
2
AMD Call Credit spread Actually got this alert 5 mins before Thursday (yesterday) close, put an order in at 0.11, but no fill. This morning gap up, then decline in first 5 mins, but got a rally and a fill at 0.10. Strong pushes down through May making lower lows, leaving behind untested fresh supply zones. Left behind triple bottom at the 72.50 level which is weak looking Price rallies in to the proximal edge of the last imbalance RBR zone. Rally is small candles, weak and slow on declining volume. A good recipie for a reversal if supply comes in as bulls are weaker and weaker. Anticipate sellers coming in. Sold call spread at 81/81.5 7 DTE, 22% ROI for 0.10 Tried for 0.11, but wouldn't fill Would've like to sell 81.50, but credit was low around 0.07
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by claypuzzle
3
EEM 62% PoP for quick 18% profit spreadQuick option spread play for the next 2 weeks: * 1 year trendline still holding * bullish trend Max profit: $154 Probability of Profit: 62% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $846 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 12 Expiry: 13 days Sell 2 EEM May21' 55 Put Buy 2 EEM May21' 50 Put Credit Put spread for 0.77cr each, because IVR is average Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:EEMLong
by TanukiTrade
AAPL Bull put spreadAAPL Bull put spread Actually entered this back on May 4, Star Wars day but didn't log it Did not have any parallel channels drawn at the time of entry. Janet Yellen opened her mouth about inflation and the markets tanked. Pushed AAPL into an aggressive buying zone at the time. Sold the 123/122 put spread at 25% ROI, 10 DTE Tucked the sold strike as far into the next RBR demand zone as I could get it. It held up last week, but today was a massive down morning and it tested the sold strike. It is 3 DTE now as I write this. I don't know if it holds up for the Fri expiration May 14, but it was a good structure read and the entry and the spread construction seem be causing market pivots.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by claypuzzle
MCD bull put spread 10 DTE May 21, 27% ROI Potential downward channel with slope translation from the selling highs. Almost into an aggressive buying and demand zone in the 5m timeframe not seen on the hourly chart. 4h trend is up, 1h trend is sideways caught between 1h supply and demand zones, just as I like it. It's a wide 2.5 strike width, but position size reduced. This morning was a huge gap down day for many stocks and I missed many entries at the open. But MCD declined into the strike zone during lunch and I was away from computer. As it was rallying I was able to sell for 0.54, 27% roi, but it's out 10 DTE Sold strike is tucked behind a spike low.
NYSE:MCDLong
by claypuzzle
APPLE BEARISH SPREAD with 73% PoP monthly exp.I'm planning to expand in better conditions. Max profit: $186 Probability of Profit: 73% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 22% Max loss with my risk management: ~$220 Req. Buy Power: $814 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 7.7 (relative low) Expiry: 44 days Sell 2 AAPL Jun18' 135 Call Buy 2 AAPL Jun18' 140 Call Credit Call Spread for 0.93cr each, because I've f*cked up the side... (angry face) Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~220$. Probability of loss in this way: ~15% . Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.47db each. Probability of profit this way: ~85%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by TanukiTrade
4
DKNG Bear Call and Bull Put spreadDKNG Bear Call and Bull Put spread Sold the Bear call yesterday May 5 for May 7 expiry 3 dte but haven't had time to log it. Sold for 25% roi and 3 dte. I've been extremely groggy today and had to take a nap. Sold Bull put today 5/6 for 8 dte and the same 25% roi at the 46/45 strikes It's not looking so great at the moment, but in theory, the current demand zone still has some defense left in it. If not, there's a Flip level in Purple that originates some hard selling in Dec 2020 that may help me. The orange spread is down at the very distal edge of base V shaped rally, so I think it's pretty good location.
NASDAQ:DKNG
by claypuzzle
LVS bull put spreadSold the 55/54 put spread 8 dte for 20.5% ROI Price into remnant demand behind 2 liquidity search spikes Looks like a downward trending channel. Spread is tucked at the distal side of next demand zone down which appears to be a higher timeframe zone. Market is already making 2 strong bear moves down, so it'll have to keep extending to get the sold strike. In theory the remaining demand zone at 57 plays enough defense to cause a small rally and get me over the finish line.
NYSE:LVSLong
by claypuzzle
1
SMH Bull put spread - closed out as day trade for small profitSMH Bull put spread Sold the 230-227.5 bull put spread for .42 which was 20% ROI and 3 DTE, and then the market quickly traded to .56 and .62 as the 236 zone dind't have any buyers. So the lack of any buying activity made me lose confidence in the trade. I bought the spread back for 0.38 for a 0.04 profit about 5 hours later and took it as a day trade. I'll look to sell lower at the 220 strike if it tests down to 230 which I think is likely
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by claypuzzle
RIOT Bull put spreadRIOT Bull Put spread 37 sold 36 bought, 7 DTE, 25% ROI Earnings isn't until May 17 BTCUSD 1h is sideways trend, testing 1h supply, broken downward momentum line, with a new RBR RIOT Strong sell off into March 25 demand zone 1st touch was into proximal edge 2nd spike down yesterday could just be momentum continuation Pullback into 5min buying zone, unconfirmed demand Passively selling off on 5m chart today, almost touching the origin base 5m chart VPOC 5 min chart double top highs this morning makes me think there's more weakness above aggressiveness below. It all depends on the current level at 43 actually holding with buyers stepping back in. Short strike is 37 tucked into next demand zone down with an aggressive imbalance from Mar 9 I think the current demand zone at 43 plays defense for me and if buyers can reverse momentum and remove supply at 50 it'll be a great trade If not, I've got the Mar 5th zone as backup defense. With thanks to @ThetaTrades @alleytrader for the idea
NASDAQ:RIOT
by claypuzzle
CLF bear call credit spreadCLF bear call credit spread CLF rallied hard into alert line at VPOC 19.72 supply RBD higher timeframe daily zone. Looks like the proximal edge was tested already Apr 27 so a test of VPOC is next logical place that sellers may resume selling again. Spike high is above 20.80 and I sold the 21 calls 10 DTE, and got 20%. I had an order resting limit for hours at .10 for 22% and it wouldn't fill. Then then selloff price during lunch, I drop my offer to 0.09 and it fills, only to have it rally again after lunch. WTF!!!!! I think my broker is f*cking with my orders. Either way, my fault, should've been more subborn on my price. They got me. So not an ideal entry, but it satisfies my minimum credit and safety parameters. Market must make a new high and hold it there through expiration. If they can do that, then they did a lot of work to come get me. I anticipate sellers at this 20 RBD zone to come back in and push back down to 18.50.
NYSE:CLFShort
by claypuzzle
1
CAT bear call spread CAT bear call spread CAT rally up into an 1h liquidity shelf 232-234 RBD origin supply zone. At the time, it looked good as I got the alert. Sold 237.50 calls with 240 bought. 3 DTE, 22% ROI Now that I look at it doing this write up, the Apr 29 opening candle was a liquidity spike search up at the open. I should've waited until above 234.70 and sold the 240 strike. I did my best to structure the trade behind all the March and April spike highs. So market must break the range and hold it up there to get me. Hopefully buyers run out of steam in the 233 range and sellers start to exert again to give me a push lower into Friday
NYSE:CATShort
by claypuzzle
AAPL bull put spreadAAPL selloff hard into the 127-126 RBR zone. Zone had strong imbalance and no retests on departure. Sold 123-122 bull put spread for 21% ROI, 10 DTE Pain in the ass getting a fill. Had limit order for 122-121 spread at .18 for 4 hours and no fill and watched as last price traded at .19 and .20. Ridiculous. Spread is tucked at the proximal edge of the next 4h RBR zone below. If AAPL drops to test 123 I will likely sell another put spread at 118 as that is a strong imbalance zone as well.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by claypuzzle
1
GSX short put vertical for high creditSmooth RSI is extreme oversold, and the IVR is ultra high. Obvious bounceback play. Max profit: $240 Probability of Profit: 57% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 47% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $510 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 88 (ultra high) Expiry: 35 days Buy 3 GSX May21' 17.5 Put Sell 3 GSX May21' 20 Put Credit Put spread for 0.8cr each, because IVR is extreme high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~25% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.28db. Probability of profit this way: ~75%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
GLong
by TanukiTrade