Bitcoin TA from 2010 to 2022 - Based on previous Patterns/cyclesAs I said I will post an idea different from Elliott wave theory. Not a financial Advice, this is my personal opinion or idea.
This Bitcoin Technical Analysis is purely based on studying its own previous trends/cycles and predicting the future cycle.
This is not based on Elliotte wave Theory nor am comparing it with DXY or S&P or Dow, next time I will make an idea based on correlation with DXY/Dollar.
Before proceeding I will tell an interesting story " The Story of Zombie and chickens".
A lazy zombie maintains the chicken farm, since chickens grow and breed faster so the numbers are keep growing n growing.
Throughout the year zombie keeps eating chickens and he keeps growing bigger n bigger. Since the zombie is very lazy, he needs help and maintains a dog to look after all the chickens.
As per now for every 4 years or so zombie gets seasonal disease and to get recover himself, he eats chickens in a massive number, not all though.
Dog also keeps eating for his survival, but after all its dog, so when the dog gets older and unable to handle the chickens, zombie appoints a new young dog to take his place.
The conclusion of this story is "Zombie never dies and keeps growing n growing, chickens are born kill and the dog keeps replaced by a new dog".
Ok let's proceed with our Analysis. Different traders visualize the charts in different ways based on their own perception. Chart is the emotions of all traders, it's like map of treasures.
I see many people use trend lines, Fibonacci, moving averages, Ichimoko or other technical indicators and many other.
Even I use many of these, but for this am not using averages or Fibonacci or Ichimoko. Am using RSI and money flow index indicators and triangle pattern for this.
1.Explaining the Patterns or drawings which I created:
Chart patterns in longer time frames, price moves in waves or some kind of curves rather than straight lines/trendlines.
I made some concentric circles where the price is respecting more (basically support n resistances), that doesn't mean the price goes in a circular fashion and goes back to its origin - zero.
Always trend breaks (upside or downside) so may be at some point of time it may break out this circular channel and form a new trend of circles.
I created the triangle pattern in this way --> (A)previous ATH-> to ->(B)current ATH-> to ->(C)lowest bearish Point-> to -> Highest counter move).
For each Bull of Bitcoin (with in 2yrs or so), it is forming a kind of symmetrical triangle with ABCD waves inside it.
(Symmetrical Triangle pattern --> Breaking out of the pattern --> new Bull or new Triangle pattern again).
2.Observation and conclusion taken from the patterns:
After deeply observing the previous 3 symmetrical triangles of Bitcoin-Green, Blue and Purple. I was wandering how to make the current pattern.
The information I have is (previous ATH 20k (point A) + current ATH 70k (point B) + I took 15500(point C) as temporary Bottom.
The conclusion is Green + Blue + Purple triangles are symmetrical in shape. (Symmetrical triangles are mostly bullish and breakout upside not compulsory though).
But for the current cycle, bitcoin is making is Descending triangle. Descending triangle patterns are generally bullish as well as bearish depend on where they are created.
(At the Bottom OR At top of the cycle). As of now it is at the top (so this means there are chances it may breakdown from this Descending triangle).
What I observed is cycle after cycle the width of the triangles are increasing and the height is getting decreased, technically what does this mean?
what I concluded is the move of going sideways is increasing and the momentum or motive of going up is diminishing/normalizing.
(So, this means there are high chances Bitcoin may move less upside and may go sideways or down).
One more thing I observed is after massive move/action of correction of every cycle (Bitcoin Bottom) there is counter move/reaction (Point D of the Triangle).
Generally, the point "D" of every cycle is laying above the top edge of previous symmetrical triangle (the sky-blue horizontal arrow lines).
(So based on the above observation I took the "D" point at 50k as counter move/reaction for current cycle/Descending triangle,
also, it is coinciding with the concentric circles which I made).
3.Final Conclusion, studying the current Descending triangle (Red)/Probabilities:
After over all study, this is my Personal Opinion:
1.Current correction is so massive with in short period of time, considering previous counter rallies and currently bullish Divergences formed in RSI + MFI taking into account,
so high possibilities that there can be a counter rally up to 50k or more than that.
2.I don't think current low 15495 is Bottom for Bitcoin. May be temporary Bottom or it may go little lower than now creating 2 layers of bullish divergences in RSI (for temp Bottom).
(Technically current pattern is Descending triangle, so high possibilities that Bitcoin may make lower low (another low may be 13780) after the counter rally.
to my guess Bitcoin may put its lower low after the Halving).
4.Probabilities of next Bull/cycle:
case1: After Bitcoin making lower low (may be 13.7k), this is the situation DO/DIE for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin manages to break out of this Descending triangle similar to previous moves, it can put a new ATH (for another decade Bitcoin may trade between 19k to 160k).
case2: Since current pattern is Descending triangle, if Bitcoin fails to breakout from this channel, there are high probabilities that it will break down.
If Bitcoin Breaks Down, most likely it will reset itself from over all cycle right from 2010. (This scenario can be same as my previous Elliott wave theory which I already shared.)
Am sorry my Technical Analysis looks little complex; I hope I explained well.
Thank you.
