Crisis
DOW JONES vs BITCOINThis is the DOW JONES chart. Red area from this chart fits in the yellow area on the bitcoin chart.
The banks and businessmen from the stock market said that bitcoin was a bubble. That's right. But bitcoin recovered calmly from that crash.
Bubbles also exist in the stock markets. If I compare this graph with the Dow Jones, the other ones come with the bitcoin.
Then the DOW JONES is a good example of the stock market collapse. Where it takes years to be able to buy from the biggest bubble ever. Even worse than the Dutch tulip mania.
Recovery will take a long time because DOW JONES took 100 years.
The yellow area in the bitcoin chart is where the dow will fit in and the red area what the stock markets will expect.
So bullish on Bitcoin and short the bankers
The crisis in Argentina and Corbyn attacks JohnsonThe crisis in Argentina. Argentina’s stock market lost more than 30% on Monday, and the Argentine peso also fell significantly. The ghost of default in Argentina scared investors around the world. Given that it is all about the 25th largest economy in the world, their fears are more than understandable - this could well be a signal for a full-fledged global crisis, the prerequisites for have been formed for a long time ago. In this light, the constant attempts of gold to “gain” a foothold above 1525 are understandable. But on the other hand, our recommendation to sell on growth paid off all week, giving good earnings almost every day. So this week we will continue to adhere to a similar tactic.
As for the Pound. Even though its weekly growth was slightly more than 100 points, it is important, that in dollar pair, it was able to gain a foothold above 1.21. The reasons for growth were good statistics on retail sales and the labor market and Brexit.
So, last week, pound sellers were flustrated by aggressive rhetoric from the British opposition. Jeremy Corbyn, British politician serving as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition, called for a vote of no confidence and declare a caretaker government that ensures that the country will not leave the EU without a deal and will hold early UK elections.
We emphasize that it is all about the rumours, so this week we will continue to look for points for pound purchases.
As for the dollar. U.S. retail sales came out pretty good, however, we still continue to recommend its purchasing. Market expectations regarding the September FOMC meeting unchanged - 100% of traders believe that the rate will be lowered by at least 0.25%. This alone is enough to maintain our confidence in a dollar decline.
As for the upcoming week, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it promises to be relatively calm. The main event will be a symposium in Jackson Hole - guaranteed a lot of comments from representatives of leading central banks, which will certainly lead to spikes in volatility in the foreign exchange market. So you should be prepared for this and adjust the parameters of open positions for this factor.
Market CrashI didn't notice the purple trend line before, but it started the 2008/9 Financial Crisis. I see this as heavy resistance, if we get rejected at this trend line then for sure we will have a major economic collapse. If we bust through this resistance line then I can see the market going nuts for 5-6 more years. I tend to think we crash within the next year and a half.
Feel free to comment, I appreciate it and also smash the "like" button! Thank you!
- Matt
GOLDMONEY SHARE - 400% OPPORTUNITY?COMPANY & BUSINESS MODEL
GoldMoney is a Canadian financial technology firm listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
The company is a precious metals payment network, offering precious metals investment services to a broad audience.
Legally regulated Goldmoney Holding, based on the company's patented technology, allows customers to open a warehouse account that they can manage online.
Customers can invest in gold, silver and other precious metals stored in insured vaults in various countries. The stocks are customer tracked and can be physically repurchased.
Goldmoney also holds interests in "Mene" & Schiffgold, both e-commerce jewelry providers and "L & B Trust", gold-based lending. The crypto business has left Goldmoney again at the end of 2018.
CUSTOMER BENEFITS
The fear of a bank collapse? Goldmoney helps. The customer is not dependent on the solvency of his bank as usual. Where the mass currently does not worry too much, as you firmly believe in your deposit insurance.
In many countries, inflation is high and people are afraid of further devaluation. There are also extreme examples like Venezuela where the fiat money is practically worthless. The prices increase. The cash withdrawal is only very limited possible. In Europe we can not imagine that "yet".
With the Goldmoney Mastercard the customer has a decisive advantage. The gold is physically deposited. The value remains stable in a crisis or even increases massively. If the customer wants to pay with the card, he can do so in his desired fiat currency.
The fee model is m.E. very fair.
BUSINESS REVIEW
- Share is not significantly above book value
- Low schooling (equity ratio above 90%)
- Big cash & gold stocks
- Attractive investments (growth investments)
- Organic growth is right
EXCLUSIVE RESEARCH
In so-called field research, among other things, they talk to the management, make surveys and put the services of the company through their paces. However, please understand that I can not share all the content with you here.
However, some information is also available internally. Among other things, no less than George Soros is involved in the company. (Source by PN) Soros is one of the best known and most successful investors. His investments have made him one of the richest people in the world.
The company founders also hold significant shares in the company.
OPPORTUNITIES
- Timing could fit well (rising gold price)
The price of gold is currently bullish. That should have a very positive effect on Goldmoney in many ways.
- Rating
The market has not even begun to notice how attractive the valuation of Goldmoney shares currently is.
- Crisis Share
The ultra-loose monetary policy will one day take great revenge. The hype about cryptocurrencies comes not by chance. In a crisis Goldmoney could become a high flyer.
- Takeover
For various reasons, I think it's not unlikely that Goldmoney will one day be taken over. Nevertheless, I prefer, of course, if Goldmoney remains independent.
RISKS
- Customer is king. Customer satisfaction needs to be improved
- New laws
Historically, there have already been "gold bans". Here, however, the advantage is that the gold, outside the EU, is physically stored and legally owned by you. In an emergency, you can immediately change your gold holdings into fiat currencies or alternative assets, or even physically purchase them.
- Competitor
Among the competitors should count Libra, where I put Libra in the same drawer as Apple Pay and so on.
Although Libra has an extremely large network and can reach the potential customers through your reach (Whattsapp, Facebook, etc.) very quickly. However, Libra is anything but crisis-proof. The client must open a bank account and also has an exchange rate risk & liquidity risk.
At the moment the politics is in the middle of what is a big risk for Libra.
- Copy of the business model
I think this unlikely because of the high entrance barrier, patent rights and infrastructure.
CONCLUSION
Goldmoney is a good deal for me as an investor.
I regard this participation as a kind of insurance. In the event of a crisis Goldmoney could go through the roof (rates beyond 10 CAD) Currently, Goldmoney is still quite unknown, which will hopefully change soon.
As Fiat money grows, Goldmoney's customers should grow as well. Sounds silly, but it is.
The company has a solid balance sheet. The current price is not far above book value which indicates that the down-risk is limited.
Reputable investors like Soros are invested. That makes me in addition positive.
Disclaimer:
Disclosure pursuant to §34b WpHG due to possible conflicts of interest: I am regularly self-invested in the securities included in the investment universe. I take no responsibility for any consequences or losses that may arise from using my information.
Risk Warning:
The instruments mentioned here do not constitute investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Securities may be subject to high volatility.
In individual cases, this can lead to the total loss of the money invested or even to considerable losses.
There is no liability for loss of assets.
In addition, I point out that I personally hold positions in the respective genres and can dissolve at any time.
Black Monday Cometh My own indicator the Mojiadoji is flashing panic across the boards .Black Monday is upon us ,the rich will become the beggars ,the fools become the wise .
I'll be popping champagne while the Wall st wizz will be popping his head out a 44th storey window surely followed by the rest of his body and a few colleagues that went balls deep in this good times roll fake pump bubble ...Bubbles bubbles in the air some pop here and some pop on Black Monday .
If you ain't already short come opening bell I would prepare to tell that Gold digger wife and those snooty Apple branded brats to expect a satsuma in a sock for Christmas .
Black Monday cometh ....You never knew how ,But the Mojiadoji don't lie and you can take that to the bank ,If it's still open ...Busted flushes and broken dreams atop the news Tuesday morn.
Akin to a kid at a 3hr feature munching that XL bag of candy goodies mummy let him shovel in the bag til it was spilling out ,enjoying himself fist over fistful ,Mouth over mouthful . Now he's back in the car tummy starting to rumble and a few miles down the rd the inevitable spewfest begins.The smell of vomit permeating the vehicle bringing his fellow journeymen to convulse . Mummy loses control as her foot glides off the pedals slippy sliding in little Timmy's bile and have decayed Gummy bears smashing into a wall and they all die an almost instant death ...That's the markets from start to finish of this fake pump hyped ride .
The Mojiadoji says hello darkness my old friend ,Your Audemars Piguet watches will glisten in the evening sun as you plummet from your ivory towers ...Pack a lunch it's gonna be the longest shortest day of your Champagne Charlie life for Black Monday Cometh .
DO WE HAVE A NEW U.S. CRISIS IN VICINITY?
Guys, honestly, until few months ago I would doubt about it... But as it approaches, I do not feel confortable to keep optimist.
1st - ISM PMI is still above 50, but since september 2018 it has been falling, which means that might be a fact that the economy is slowly contracting. In my opinion, if it falls under 48 it's to be really concerned.
* ISM PMI - The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report on business is based on data compiled from monthly replis to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. It measures: New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices. If it's higher than 50 it's good, means that these indicators are increasing, if it's under 50, it means that it's decreasing.
2nd - Data released on every payroll shows a HUGE increase on job creations, the number of unemployed Americans has not being so low since 1969. And it can create a inflation, as more money circulares in the economy, more the price of products become high, as it happens, more the interest rates increase to control an inflationary boom and it makes the consumption and das the whole economy to contract. Debt with higher interest rates becomes more expensive, the business and consumers start having problems to pay their debt and the offer of credit (98% of the money in circulation are credit) decreaces, which also contract consumption, which bring problems for business to keep their solvency and so on.
GREEN BARS means the record of low unemployment rate today and in 1969. The RED BARS means the years of MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISIS in the U.S.A. It usually happens after a great time of prosperity because the markets, are ciclicle! Every period of prosperity had an average duration of 10 years followed by a major a crisis!
3rd - The world trade has not being so low since the subprime crise in 2008. As you can see in the next picture.
4th - Increase of Federal Debt in the past 10 years
Hardly we'll have a crise so strong and deep as the subprime's crisis. Today we have more M1 Money stock, Gold and hedge instruments. The financial infrastructure of the markets as well as the leasons lerned with the previous mistakes might help to make the efects of the crisis less letal for the financial instituitions, the people and the markets in general.
What do you think?
DANGER: Global financial chaos looms, next week (educational). This is a brief educational post, that is meant as a heads up for sensible traders. They would wish to be aware of systemic risks approaching if Deutsche Bank collapses finally. This is likened to the Lehman Brothers fiasco of a few years ago, but it could be much bigger. I'm sharing this information based on reliable hard data available freely on the internet. DYOR.
It's better to be prepared - and nothing happens, than not prepared and your world turns into chaos.
The financial world is far more hooked up globally than around 2008 with the advent since, of superfast internet connections. The speed at which shockwaves may travel, would likely be hundreds of times faster than in 2008. So a 'flap of a butterfly's wings' in one financial corner of the planet could cause 'hurricanes' thousands of miles away in other corners of the world - like you never imagined before (concepts applied from Chaos Theory).
Nothing here is predictive. I never do predictions. I deal only in probabilities.
Appropriate seeding non-promotional references:
1. Lehman Brothers story
2. Deutsche Bank - recent events
Disclaimer : This is not financial advice, even if so construed. Should you come to be influenced by this brief screencast, know that your losses are your own. In simple terms no liabilities accepted by me. You'd just have to sue yourself.
Crisis Investing 74% pa. average - at 0.83% max/rel drawdownManaging losses is the first rule of any investing. This live result over 5 years was based on 0.83% max/rel drawdown since 2015.
In my books risking more than 5% is deemed high risk. Market gaps are normal part of the game, so for any trader that claims market spikes are abnormal, better to stick to blackjack.
WTI CRUDE OIL LongCurrently observing the geopolitical tensions about the gulf of Hormuz and the allegations about Iran's Military.
The current news and the marketclose on friday and the market opening on monday will most likely cause a gap in the OIL price.
The price of OIL will almost 90% surge the coming week. Price is currently $52. This will propably go up to $57 or higher the coming weeks.
TVC:USOIL
Impact of CME Expiration Date on BTC*** This article is not for sale or buy.
The CME expiration date has a major impact on BTC's trend transition. Inverse head and shoulders pattern & CME expiration date, Triangle pattern & CME expiration date.
1. Current Coin Market Status
- Coin Cap : 179 Billion $
- Bitcoin Dominance : 52.0%
- Volume by National Currencies : USD(36.5%), JPY(44.2%), KRW (4.09%)
2. The Comparison of Coin Market Cap
- Coin Cap : about 179 billion $
- Stock Market Cap around the world : about 50 trillion $ / 0.27%
- Korean Stock Market Cap : about 1760 billion $ / 10%
- Samsung Electronics Cap : about 240 billoion $ > Coin Cap
3. Futures Expiration date
1) CME : On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm / UTC
2) CBOE : On Third Wednesday of each month at 10 pm / UTC
4. The Long-Term BTC Forecast
- A similarity with the 2015 bottom & Influence of halving
- The rising curve by pattern
5. 2021, The bubble of new industry for overcoming economic crisis?
6. Around CME Expiration Date, since BTC trends often change or price fluctuations increase, you should look more carefully. The charts listed below are some of my previous analyses of how the CME expiration date has affected BTC pricing. Please check. If you liked this idea, please, 'Thumbs up', 'Follow', 'Comment'~^^
1) CME Expiration Date on June 2018 )
2) CME Expiration Date on July 2018 )
3) CME Expiration Date on December 2018 )
4) CME Expiration Date on March 2019 )
Caterpillar's crisis indicatorDespite the fact that many people managed to record much more profits than they did before, the year 2018 appeared to be the worst of the global market since the financial crisis. The substantial decrease in stock prices was the result of unresolved economic problems and prevailing insecurities amongst market players.
News on Caterpillar’s slowing sales just pour more oil on the flame. Economists including those at the International Monetary Fund have been paring their 2019 estimates, and investors will get a better idea of just how much global growth is likely to slow when the company reports quarterly results on Wednesday. Sales and earnings at Caterpillar may show signs of moderating as China’s expansion ebbs and trade uncertainties damp demand, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Karen Ubelhart.
$USDARS DOLAR MAYORISTA ARGENTINA CHANCE NUEVA CORRIDA CAMBIARIAFX_IDC:USDARS
EL DOLAR MAYORISTA RECONOCIO EN MOVIMIENTO ABC DE CORRECCION ONDA 2 DE 3 ALCISTA EN EL 61,8% DE CORRECCION DE FIBONACCI EN $41,35 PARA REACCIONAR.
EL DATO INFLACION MINORISTA 4,7% DE MARZO , MUY POR ENCIMA DE LO ESPERADO EN ARGENTINA, QUE ELEVO LA MARCA ANUAL A 54,7%, DEMUESTRA LO FUERA DE CONTROL EN QUE SE ENCUENTRA INFLACION.
ESTA SITUACION TERMINARIA TECNICAMENTE EN GENERANDO UN "GOLPE DE MERCADOS", NUEVA SALIDA EN ONDA 3 -3 ALCISTA PARA EL BILLETE MAYORISTA, QUE LO ELEVE RAPIDAMENTE HACIA EL TOPE DEL NIVEL DE BANDA DE FLOTACION, 50-51 PESOS DE NIVEL DE RESISTENCIA, MANTENIENDO UN OBJETIVO DE MEDIANO PLAZO HACIA 63 PESOS.
TECNICAMENTE MANTENGO EXPECTATIVAS DE UN COLAPSO ECONOMICO FINANCIERO CAMBIEARIO PARA ARGENTINA ANTES DE LAS ELECCIONES, LA NUEVA PIERNA ALCISTA DEVALUATORIA EN MERCADOS EMERGENTES ( LA MAYOR EN LA DECADA) POTENCIARA EL CICLO ADVERTIDO.
Some thoughts on the VOLUME of SPXI've noticed on the SPX Monthly chart, that the volume has been ascending all the way to the 2007 financial crisis correction and after that, the stock market made a new high until recently on a descending volume. I don't know what this exactly means or does it mean something at all but I will appreaciate any comments and thoughts on this. Thanks. SP:SPX