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LUCKILY THE TEST TACTIC SUSTAINEDIT TOOK MONTHS OF PREPARATION. A LITTLE OVER A YEAR AGO... NOTICED VERY PECULIAR PATTERNS ON A LOT OF VERY STURDY CHARTS. EXAMINED NEARLY 400 TICKERS... SOMETHING VERY IMPORTANT STOOD OUT. DID SOME CALCULATIONS AND TESTED THE THEORY WITH A LIVE PORTFOLIO. WHEN THE BANKING CRISIS STARTED PACKING IN, THE PORTFOLIO WAS RED AT FIRST. THEN EVERYTHING WENT GREEN... AND STAYED GREEN. LIKE M A G I C. THE BANKING CRISIS WAS PERFECT FOR THIS PORTFOLIO TYPE. VERY TUNED IN. EVERYTHING WORKED JUST AS PLANNED. THERE ARE PLENTY MORE TO GO... WILL TEST OUT THE LONGEVITY NOW. WE ARE IN A CYCLE AND IT'S CLEAR AS DAY. Strange things can and will happen. The performance of our markets are extraordinarily fascinating! Watched the market throughout the 2020 fallout... iT was nothing short of miraculous. We are all lucky. Count your blessings. Take care. P.S. Let's not get too excited. We have work to do!
NASDAQ:CG
by NebulousMercuria
BEFUDDLED BANKINGIt’s no secret that the US banking industry is facing some significant challenges when it comes to securities losses. In fact, the Big 4 US banks - JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America - are sitting on a combined $211.5 billion in unrealized losses. That's a huge amount of money, and it's certainly cause for concern among investors and analysts alike. One of the key reasons for these losses is the ongoing volatility in the financial markets. As we've seen over the past few years, there have been a number of factors - from geopolitical tensions to trade disputes to the COVID-19 pandemic - that have contributed to significant swings in the value of securities. For banks that hold large portfolios of these securities, these fluctuations can have a major impact on their bottom line. Another factor that's contributing to the securities losses among US banks is the current low-interest rate environment. When interest rates are low, banks tend to invest in higher-yielding securities in order to generate returns for their shareholders. However, as we've seen in recent years, these securities can be risky, and when their values decline, it can lead to significant losses for the banks that hold them. When it comes to regional banks, the situation is even more dire. These smaller institutions often have smaller deposit bases, which means that they have less capital to work with when it comes to investing in securities. As a result, they may take on more risk in order to generate returns for their shareholders. Unfortunately, this can backfire when the securities they've invested in experience significant declines in value. So what does all of this mean for investors and consumers? Well, for one thing, it's important to be aware of the risks that banks are facing when it comes to securities losses. While the banking industry is generally seen as a stable and safe place to invest, the reality is that there are always risks involved. As always, it's important to do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. For consumers, it's important to be aware of the financial health of the banks where you keep your money. While the FDIC provides insurance for deposits up to $250,000 per account, it's still a good idea to make sure that the bank you're working with is financially stable and secure. Doing so can help to protect your money and ensure that you have access to the services and resources that you need.
NYSE:JPM
by optionsswing
🔥 Bitcoin To $100k This Year? Rising From The Ashes Of BanksIn this analysis I want to talk about the possibility of Bitcoin going to 100k this year. This is a speculative analysis, but still based on real-world macro. Take it with a grain of salt. Bitcoin going to 100k in the middle of a banking and inflation crisis, with a FED that's increasing the interest rates? I would've said it's impossible. Not only that, but it's in stark contrast with the usual 4-year halving cycles. However, something has changed over the last months. In March, during the Silicon Valley Bank's crisis, we saw a massive bullish move. This had to do with the fact that people lost confidence in (regional) banks, and decided to get self-custody over their own money and buy Bitcoin (and gold). Since then, BTC has been trading bullish alongside Gold, hedging against the risk of further banking failures. More banks have gone under over the last few days. Signature Bank and First Republic bank went down and had to be sold and/or saved. 3/4 of the biggest banks that ever went under, went under in 2023. While the stock markets sold off over the last few days, BTC gained strength. Most notable was the reaction after the interest rate hike yesterday. The SP500 fell from a cliff, whilst Bitcoin saw a huge move upwards. Check out the analysis below where I go more into detail on why this seemingly inverse relationship exists: Albeit a small probability, I think that the idea of BTC going to 100k this year is not even that far-fetched. In my eyes, the banking sector is far from safe, especially now that the FED has increased the interest rates yet again and is very unlikely to reduce the rates in the coming months. More banks failing means more risk to your money, means more people buying BTC and gaining self-custody over their own money. And yes, more banks are failing as we speak. PacWest Bancorp has seen a 75% drop since the first of May. Smaller, regional banks falling are bullish, but won't get BTC to 100k. There is a possibility of the largest banks failing, think JPMorgan or Bank of America. And if they do, we can experience a massive influx of buying that we've never seen before, purely based on fear. In normal circumstances, the FED will aggressively cut the interest rates and start printing money to safe the banks. They can't really do that anymore because it will cause inflation. However, they most likely will because saving one of the largest US banks is going to be more important than inflation, at least in the short-term. In case you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Feel free to share your thoughts below 🙏.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
31
🔥 Bitcoin Bearish Channel: Break Out On Banks Failing?In my latest BTC analysis I talked about the bearish channel in which Bitcoin was trading. My expectation was a move downwards, since the market looked more bearish than bullish. After a quick drop, BTC recovered again on regional banking failures. With yesterday's FOMC meeting rising the interest rates by another 0.25%, the risks of more (regional) banks becoming insolvent has only increased. This is good news for Bitcoin because people will take out their money from banks and store it in BTC (or gold, for that matter). We can break out of the channel today, making it a bull-flag pattern. Looking at 30k and 31k in the short-term in case the bullish pressure persists. Be patient for the break out. Also note the blue dotted support line, which can be retested in the near future.
Long
by FieryTrading
5
XAUUSD Updated ScenarioAs markets have received negative news for USD, yesterday's price action had a strong upside reaction. As we are trying to reactive trade we see this upside breakout fro the 14-day range as a potential buy signal, therefore we are looking for the previous highs as our first TP targets. Please be advised that this week is very busy on the markets FOMC, FED related news can Impact even the best of the setups and markets can change direction short term/mid term in a very fast manner.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FastFx_Ltd
🔥 Failling Banks BULLISH For Bitcoin & Gold: But Why?Over the last two months there's been several that have gone insolvent and got eventually bailed out by the FED, or have been taken over by larger banks. Initially, this looming crisis caused a lot of stress in the markets during the first two weeks of March. However, once Silicon Valley Bank got shut down & bailed out we saw a huge bullish move in both Bitcoin (helped by a short-squeeze) and Gold, whilst the Regional Banks ETF continued to make new lows. Yesterday, there was a another big bank that has gone insolvent and has been taken over by JPMorgan. Stocks fell significantly and the Regional Banks ETF made new lows because of sell-offs in other banks. This sparked another bullish move in both Bitcoin and Gold because investors are fleeing to safety. Physicals commodities like Bitcoin and Gold don't need a bank. You can buy them and store them either on your own PC or in your house. Furthermore, big banks like JPMorgan and the like saw their balances swell because they are deemed to big to fail, unlike smaller regional banks. With the FED most likely increasing the interest rates further, there's a decent probability for more (regional) banks to fail. This will most likely be bullish for Bitcoin, since more money will flock to the relative safety that Bitcoin offers. If the banking crisis will get very severe with, for example, big banks failing, it can spark a massive move of BTC towards >50k. The technicals don't support a move like this, but a macro-related event like big banks failing could trigger a massive influx of buyers. Future will tell. All we can see now is that regional banks in distress is triggering a flight to 'safe' commodities like BTC and Gold.
AMEX:KRELong
by FieryTrading
8
2023 Crisis In my own eyes THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE Publishing here the history of economics effect on stock market I took the last couple of crisis (bubble at 2000 and the real estate crisis on 2008) and added the bellow charts - Inflation - Interest - Unemployment Once thing is clear- each time inflation went up- The fed increased the intersect rate and unemployment went down to the lowest points of the decade or more - When unemployment reached the bottom, we were getting towards the top of the market (on 2008) or in the middle of the fall down (2001) - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NEVER REACHED THE BOTTOM WHEN THE CRISIS WAS OVER OR DURRNING THE UPTREND ON THE ABOVE CRISIS -When Inflation rates got to the pick level - the market was either still climing or in the begining of the fall - INFLATION RATES NEVER PICKED OR STAYED HIGH FOR A LONG TIME WHILE THE MARKET BOTTOMED - THE PRIOD OF AT LEAAST 7 MONTHS WE HAD THE HIGH INTRESET RATE AT THEIR PICK - AND IT HAPPENED WHILE THE MARKETS WERE CRASHING THE SIGANL FOR THE BOTTOM USUALLY CAME WHEN THE INFALTION CAME TO IT'S LOWEST POINT - DRAMATIC MOVES OF THE INFLATION GOING DOWN - WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRASH AND TOWARDS THE END WHEN WE HIT THE BOTTOM - Were are we now 4-2023??? In My Opinion: - We are in the beginning of the big crash, we are going to sink hard to new low level, we will visit the highest levels of the market before the CORONA (February 2020) - I really think we will have a hard recession which will take 5-7 years or more to get back to the tops of the ETFs (QQQ/ SPY etc...) We are being fouled at the moment the the bottom already happened, as nothing is shiny in the near/ far furture - AAPL IS ONLY 9% FROM IT'S ATH (MAKE SENCE??) not to me - VIX IN ITS LOWEST FOR THE PAST 1+ YEAR (USUALLY THE MARKET WILL PUT ALL TO SLEEP BEFORE THEY DROP THE KNIFES) - LAYOFF SEASON HAS BEGAN AT THE BIG COMANIES - FED DECLEARED A SOFT RECESSION (WHEN THEY SAY SOFT IT'S THE SAME AS WHEN THEY SAID TRANSITORY INFLATION - PLEASE REMEMBER !!! - INTRESET RATE?? NEXT 0.25 IS COMING IN 2 WEEKS - WHAT IS THE CATALIST FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGH?? NOTHING (In My Opinion) THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by AstockMaster
1
US Regional Banks: Is the Worst Over?📝The KBW NASDAQ REGIONAL BANKING INDEX is a stock index composed of regional US banks operating in one or several geographic regions of the country. These banks tend to be smaller in size than the large national banks, and generally offer banking services to businesses and individuals in their areas of operation. Index performance is affected by a number of factors, including the health of the regional economy in which these banks operate, interest rates and regulatory policies that affect the banking industry. 📈 Looking in parallel with the S&P500 index, we see that it anticipated the 2008 crisis. Now KBW is in a decisive region, at the same level as before that crisis. The resistance and support levels that delimit this region are in green and red, respectively. Whether it will rise or fall, I don't know... For now I'm just stating this fact. What I can say is that if the index breaks below the red dotted line, it will be an indication that the banking sector could experience more turmoil.
K
by andre_007
SP-500 - Banking crisisYou might have wondered about the past ~400 days in the financial market, especially in the US and Europe. Numerous commentaries and opinions have been shared across business-related media regarding interest rates, inflation, oil prices, war, etc. Trust me; you are not alone! Even the most distinguished economic Nobel prize winners have yet to learn why the economic indicators are still stable with so many factors in place. You might have heard of the recent banking failure in the US and Switzerland and that the banking system is so strong that nothing similar to 2008 would happen. But you have yet to hear that this time is expected to be worse!! Milad opinion: In the next 40 days, till the first week of May, we will see multiple failures in the financial system and corporates with weak management, and we will see the tight unemployment rate finally cracking up. But this will be just the beginning of many failures to come. To explain this more clearly, in the past 15 years, we have seen a secular bull market that has pomped the asset prices to a level never seen before, leading to an everything bubble. As a result, we have seen the tech sector and related assets grow to an unsustainable level, and housing prices soar. But this fast growth has come to an end, and in the next 40 days, we will see a downfall of significant indexes to at least 30% to begin with, resulting in a tough landing. The bases are as follows: The banking crisis of 1907 and 2008 indicate a massive downfall of 30% or more, starting shortly after banks' failures. As the Fed Chairman touched on in today's Q&A, the credit market is falling, starting from Credit Swiss, and will be tightened further. This could threaten the housing market, which is already unstable. The 1974, 2002, and 2008 crashes indicate that the final drop should occur here. The downfall for SP500 shows 30% to 41% drop in the next 40 days. A historical unemployment rate study indicates a sudden jump in the following two readings. The bond market inversion (10s-2s) and (10s-3months) indicate that the recession is very close. Analyst Sentiment Measure of earnings among US companies indicates an extreme reading is coming, which means a significant drop in earning expectations. Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) alarms for immediate recession. ISM New orders Leading also indicates an immediate recession. What's next? You can see in recent weeks, the SEC has been questioning different comaniyas, cryptocurrency companies, and people. The regulation of the cryptocurrency market has begun, next is the takeover or liquidation of private banks in favor of the central bank. Then CBDC - FEDnow Starts in June-July. P.S if this prediction comes true, there will be a storm in cryptocurrency, and a drop below 16 is possible, I just keep it in mind. And it will look something like this Write your comments, send them to your friends, I really want to know your thoughts. Thank you MIlad Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:SPXShort
by EXCAVO
14
Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly, September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse Asset correlations (bottom pane): Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today Indicators' inference : The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988. The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation. Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart: TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1 Finally, Current Retest(D): Same chart - Longer Period (3M): Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
TVC:IXICShort
by Sanzhar_m
20
Crude Oil as a crystal ball to the what's comingWhen China re-open early February 2023, it was a sign of relief. Global markets beginning to show positivity. Economies worldwide can now take a breather and be optimistic to forecast a recovery. Several news outlets online hints on "dodging the recession bullet" and it great news to everyone, at times of turmoil. Well, March 2023 is such a spoiler honestly. Why? US banking sector cracking and contagion effect creeping into other nations. Credit Suisse came under spotlight this week. Oh that's bad, wait till you hear more about BNP Paribas in days/weeks to come. US Government step in to provide blood supply for these troubled banks via BTFP. Even 11 banks stepped in to inject $30B into First Republic Bank. Credit Suisse received lifeline from Swiss National Bank amounting to 50B Swiss Francs. Now, energy (such as oil), is the key ingredient that drives growth. Economic expansion comes with rising oil prices, demand & supply. In a span of 2 weeks, that is totally reversed. Russia cutting 500K bpd can't do nuts to prop oil prices up. The Crude Oil market is pricing in a potential global economic collapse. What follows when there is a global scale crisis? Unemployment, businesses close doors, falling income, less spending, budget cuts, etc. All the bad stuff. Energy price gets cheap when there is falling demand. Lesser buying, lower prices. Just like C-19 pandemic times. I do not wish bad stuff to befall people. However, I see what I see and I cannot deny it. Bank runs will be in season in Q2 2023. The more lifeline money being injected into problematic banks, the more bank runs. Why? Millions are waiting in line to take their money out. I read recently that credit line now are being tighten. Oh dear. Bail in? By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
TVC:USOIL
by XeroAcademy
banks are on fire again...The banking system is bursting at the seams again. It all started with the recent series of bankruptcies of several American banks at once and it happened in just a week, which was an echo of the problems of the 2007 crisis, which, as people hoped, we were able to solve. The main signal of the disaster was a sudden failure in the Silicon Valley bank. On March 9, people's deposits disappeared, losses totaled an incredible $42 billion, which brought out an underestimated risk in the system. The problem was hidden in long-term bonds, in which the bank invested during a period of low interest rates and high asset prices, and when the Federal Reserve System sharply raised rates, the bank began to have problems. As a result, the bank was left with huge losses that were not previously recognized due to the fact that American capital rules do not require most banks to report a drop in the price of bonds that they plan to hold to maturity. 620 billion dollars – that's how many unrecognized losses were in the entire banking system of America at the end of 2022. To understand how much it is: this amount is equal to about a third of the total capital stock of American banks. The pandemic has brought even more problems to the economy, and the banking system has become even more shaky. A large volume of new deposits poured into banks, and the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures pumped cash into the system. These deposits were directed by banks to purchase long-term bonds and government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, and all this increased the risk of ruin in the event of an increase in interest rates. Having bought bonds with depositors' funds, the bank essentially used other people's funds, but the problem was not that, but that holding bonds to maturity requires matching them with deposits, and as rates rise, competition for deposits increases. At large banks, such as JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America, rising rates tend to increase their earnings thanks to floating-rate loans. However, in about 4,700 small and medium-sized banks with total assets of $10.5 trillion, rising rates tend to reduce their margins, which helps explain why stock prices of some banks have fallen. Another problem for banks is the risk that depositors will start withdrawing their deposits during the crisis, which will force the bank to cover the outflow of deposits by selling assets. If this happens, the bank's losses loom, and its capital stock may look comforting today, but most of its filling will suddenly become an accounting fiction. That is why the Federal Reserve System acted this way last weekend, being ready to provide loans secured by bank bonds. By providing loans with good collateral to stop the flight, the Fed is right, but such easy conditions come with certain costs. By creating the expectation that the Fed will take on the risks of interest rate changes in a crisis, they encourage banks to behave recklessly. The coming year requires regulators to make the system safer and less risky for the people. It is necessary to abolish some strange rules that do not require reporting and answers for increased risks that relate to small and medium-sized banks, Now the government has announced its intention to rescue depositors of the Silicon Valley Bank, which indicates that such banks carry a systemic risk and they need to be rescued in order not to destroy the entire economy of the country. But saving depositors is only half the job, in order to eliminate the repetition of today's and past problems, it is necessary to introduce the same accounting and liquidity rules that big banks follow, as is the case in Europe, and will have to submit plans to the Fed for their orderly resolution if they fail. These decisions and actions concern not only the United States, these rules should require the entire banking sector to recognize the risks associated with an increase in interest rates. Unrealized losses carry the risk of bankruptcy and banks with such losses should be confirmed by more thorough control and verification than those who do not have such losses. Timely testing will help to avoid bankruptcy, which would simulate a situation in which the bank's bond portfolio is released to the market, while rates rise even more. After that, it would be possible to determine whether the system has sufficient capital to avoid bankruptcy or not. Banks, of course, will resist additional control, increasing capital reserves, but all this will help to improve the quality of system security. Depositors and taxpayers around the world face intense fear, and they should not live with the fear and fragility that they thought had gone down in history many years ago.
SEducation
by Lingrid
7
Gold gets a safe-haven bid as banks shake confidenceFinancial markets were sent into a tailspin on the news of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) imploding. Despite the decisive moves by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)1 and the Federal Reserve (Fed)2, market confidence has been shaken and we have witnessed a flight to safety. Demand for government bonds have risen sharply, driving the yields on 10-year US Treasuries down from 4.0% on 9/3/2023 to 3.4% (16/03/2023). In tandem, gold prices have risen 6.6% in the past week (9/3/2023 to 16/03/2023). The speed of gold’s moves indicates that the flight to safety has not been obstructed by any broad-based liquidity issues. Very often in the initial phases of financial market stress, investors sell gold to raise cash to meet margins calls on futures positions in other assets or for other liquidity needs. The current crisis appears different in that there are no visible signs of panic gold selling and that could be indicative that the stress in certain parts of the banking sector are idiosyncratic. Nevertheless, investors have been reminded that unexpected events occur with greater frequency than they hoped and have sought to rebuild defensive positions that will help to hedge against further turbulence. Credit Suisse concerns add to investors desire for defensive hedges The Credit Suisse debacle unfolding quickly on the heels of SVB highlights that when confidence is shaken in one part of the banking sector it can easily spread. All banks, deposit takers, brokers and lending institutions with weak metrics are under the microscope. A liquidity life-line offered by the Swiss National Bank on 16/03/2023 has allayed markets fears for now, but we believe that investors are likely to continue to seek defensive assets in this time of uncertainty. Either tightening or losing monetary policy could be interpreted as a policy mistake. Gold is there as a hedge. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 50 basis points on 16/03/2023, marking a bold move given the fragile state of market confidence. However, blended with dovish commentary, markets are expecting less rate rises in the future and believe the 50 bps hike was delivered only because the ECB felt like it had pre-committed and any smaller hike would signal conditions are worse than what the market has priced in. The Euro appreciated against the dollar and the Dollar basket depreciated, providing further support for gold in Dollar terms. While the jury is out on whether the Federal Reserve will pivot its monetary policy early (note the Federal Open Committee meeting is on 21st and 22nd March), investors are seeking to protect themselves with hard assets. If the Fed doesn’t soften its hawkish stance, it risks transforming a bank liquidity issue into a recession as risk appetite and confidence has been shaken. If the Fed does act either by terminating quantitative tightening or prematurely ending the hike cycle, the central bank’s monetary largess will linger for longer. Either way, gold is likely to benefit. Gold tends to do well in recessions and is seen as the antithesis to central bank created fiat currencies. Gold gains are well supported We therefore expect gold to hold onto the past week’s gains in the is time of turbulence. The key short-term risk for gold at this stage is not market confidence recovering quickly, but a broader market meltdown that could drive gold selling to raise liquidity for meeting other obligations (such as margin calls). In that scenario, gold is likely to recover in time as other investors will buy the metal to shore up their defensive hedges. Sources 1 The FDIC provided more than its usual $250,000 insurance on deposits. 2 The Fed created a new liquidity tool - Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) - offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral.
COMEX:GC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
🔥 Bond Yield Curve Inversion Reaching -1%: Why It's ImportantAn inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond falls below that of a 2-year Treasury bond. Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than shorter-term bonds. This is because investors demand a higher return for tying up their money for a longer period of time. However, when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest rates, it can indicate that investors believe the economy will weaken in the future. This is because investors are willing to accept lower yields on long-term bonds if they believe that interest rates will fall in the future as a result of weak economic growth. Essentially, they are willing to lock in a lower yield now, in the hopes that it will be higher in the future. An inverted yield curve can lead to a number of problems. For example, it can make it more difficult for banks to make money. This is because banks borrow at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates. When the yield curve is inverted, the interest rates that banks earn on loans are lower than the interest rates they pay on deposits. This can squeeze bank profits and make them less willing to lend. And we all know, less money in the market means less potential (risky) investments. An inverted yield curve can also be a sign of a potential recession. Historically, an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since WW2. This is because an inverted yield curve can indicate that investors are pessimistic about the future of the economy. They may be selling off stocks and other assets, which can lead to a downturn in the stock market and a decline in consumer confidence. In conclusion, an extremely inverted yield curve like now is a situation in which short-term interest rates on government bonds are higher than long-term interest rates. This can indicate potential economic problems, including a recession and difficulties for banks. While an inverted yield curve is not a guarantee of a recession, the probability of the current yield inversion suggesting a coming recession is very high. It's going to be an interesting year.
TVC:US10YShort
by FieryTrading
9
The Chinese yuan is the new world currency.The forecast that will probably come true not in 10 years, but this year, the yuan will begin to become the world's currency. Currently it only accounts for a few percent of world trade, but it will account for tens of percent. In this scenario China must stop devaluing the currency to please its exporters and overseas partners. Create an infrastructure parallel to the SWIFT system. I assume that this will be a digital yuan for international transactions. Whether there will be a correlation with the current fully fiat yuan - I can't say yet.
Short
by IgorFlow
3
S&P500: empire’s collapseOn the second of every month we have the S&P500 index updated here, subscribe so you don't miss any entry points. Today I decided to update the most high cyclical and super-cyclical degrees on it - the global picture. We will look at the weekly chart in a month's time. I pay special attention to it and put it in bold - it's a long-term forecast for decades. Super-cyclical and cyclical waves can go on for hundreds or tens of years, respectively. Going back to the index, we are now seeing a final rise to the ±5000 area within the ending diagonal, which will be accompanied in the media by a series of imaginary victories and a narrative about America's new greatness. In reality, the FED will simply buy out the crisis once again - there will be another QE, which will accelerate inflation and lead to the final inflation of all bubbles, including the stock market. Then a fall of times or even dozens of times. I set the minimum target at 666, the optimal target at 66.6. This, I repeat, will happen for decades, along with the loss of at least half of the economy. The feeling is that a Great Depression multiplied by 2 will happen - wave (IV) should be sharp, as opposed to sideways (II). The probability of civil war in the wave (IV) tends to 100%, there is also a strong prospect of nuclear war, but let's not talk about it yet... I believe that the next 2 years or so is the last chance to make money on investments. Then there will be the question of carrying capital through the crisis with minimal losses. For this purpose, in my opinion, scrap gold is the best way to go.
SP:SPX
by IgorFlow
S&P 500, Daily, 2008 Analogy - before the worst?I have been considering the 2008 analogy for some time. I tried to find an important price resistance and I found it. In 2008, the worst drops started at 1313 and it was a fibo retracement of about 47,5%. Today, a similarly important level, in my opinion, is the retracement of 3939, which is also about 47,5% fibo. Of course, I don't expect a perfect rebound of the price from that point, as it was with 1313 in 2008. It is also important to look at the VIX index (related idea linked) and the lower time frame structure (by the analogy, there should be no big drops, but confirmation in the medium and short-term structure - 1H/15m). If the swing low is broken, I will be looking at the momentum in order to predict the bottom. Personally, I think the March 2020 low will be broken. In 2008, we also had a break of the bear market low after the dotcom bubble. Of such fundamental matters that indicate the further course of the bear market, I can include, for example: - inverted yield curves , - a huge divergence between T10Y2Y and T10Y3M before the curve is inverted, - a divergence between Real and Nominal Disposable Personal Income (Nominal is rising, Real is in decline), - a divergence between Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade (is rising) and Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (in decline) since March 2021, - the recessionary PMI. And that is all I wanted to convey to you. Not investment advice, only my own opinion.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
4
DefiLlama: Total Value Locked by Protocols"Exchange is not your wallet". "Not your keys, not your coins" Despite the strong turmoil due to the FTX crash, DeFi dApps (Decentralized Finance applications that run on blockchains) remain intact, at least for the most part. And given this bad context of the crypto market, it is worth noting that Dexes (decentralized exchanges) and Landing Protocols have proven to be much more resilient and secure than centralized exchanges, since the former have a more open administration and a source code that can be accessed and audited. On the other hand, centralized exchanges are a black box, and at this delicate moment, there are doubts if they really have enough balance to honor all withdrawals. DefiLlama TVL (Total Value Locked) The graph presented here shows the monetary values ​​locked in the main dApps, also called protocols. What the graph indicates is that the DeFi ecosystem remains intact, and so far the application that has suffered the most withdrawals and losses has been Mango Markets, which runs on the Solana blockchain. Due to the Alameda/FTX contamination, some Solana dApps may suffer more. The worst case scenario in case of eviction According to DefiLlama, the total amount locked in DeFi is $76.13b. Doing a very quick baker's account with approximate values: + Total TVL: $76,000,000,000.00 - FTX Leak: $10,000,000,000.00 - Investments by Alameda/FTX in Solana and some dApps: $6,031,139,675.00 ------------------------------- = $59,968,860,325,000 (-21%) So, if the market drops more, we could have a drop of another 21%, distributed among these protocols. But, again, this is just a quick calculation and could be wrong, and it is not investment advice. Final word This will be a time of consolidation, in which ecosystems with solid governance will prove their worth and emerge from this crisis even stronger.
A
by andre_007