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Crisis

Dow Jones (Over Bought) Shorting chance Jan 2021Hi This index seems to be over bought to us as it is recovering from the Corona pandemic Crisis and the way it has rallied, we may have a chance to short it at its correction or so called retracement. we can see bearish divergence of Price and MACD and combining this flow with Price Action Analysis it gives us more confluences of a down fall and a trend reversal or at least a retracement or market correction we have specified some support levels which can be used as some target areas and some trend lines as the most fall levels truly speaking we don't have any concrete fundamental reasoning behind such a fall but some how we can relate it to the upcoming chaos in the USA political and FinTech industry and giant MNCs who can be an other reason for an other crisis... please bring some reasoning for this fall if you have any in mind...
TVC:DJIShort
by BitonGroup
Stock Market CrisisHello my friends, today, im gonna show you the biggest falls of stock market SPX. First fall was in 1987 , stocks dropped over 20% in one single day, incredible. Market got back in 22 months. This day (19.11.) is always called " Black Monday ". The second fall was 9 years after "Black Monday". In august have SPX dropped about 15% . There were a lot of reasons, but the main reasons are Asian economic crisis, debt default by Russia and plummeting oil prices . we was back in 5 months. The worse crisis came in 2001 . This crisis is also called " Dot Com Bubble ". All technology companies have dipped and SPX was down 50% . Market got back in 7 years. Right after market got ATH (All-Time-High), market again dropped over 55% . Reason was american type of mortgage called " Subprime ". A lot of investing banks have bankrupted. One of them was Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns . This crisis was one of the biggest opportunities that ever happened, because properties were really cheap . Market was back on his feet in 6 years. In 2018 dropped market over 15% ? because of interest rate hikes . Market was back in 8 months. The last crisis was an year ago, Covid-19 . Small companies have bankrupted . Market dropped over 30% . Back in 6 months. Okay guys, seems we are at the end, thanks for reading, hope you admire it, if yes, you can support me by Like and also you can Follow me, because i will do these things really often.
SP:SPX
by TommyTK247
14
Which currency pairs benefited from financial crisis 2007-2008The stock market has been rising in spite of the covid pandemic. Even before that, some well-known names were predicting a huge cruse with Peter Schiff republishing his same old book every year for some time now. Anyway, many of us agree, that there is something wrong with the markets and even more reputable managers predict a crash. It is, therefore, a good idea to look where the money tends to go should that happen. Forex is a central point of the financial markets. Bonds, stocks, and commodities each is denominated in a currency. Buying the right asset from the right asset class is great. Buying it with the right currency is even greater ☺ One of the winners is clearly an American Dollar. I will leave it in all the following charts. After a long downtrend, the crisis put a halt to that and in 130 days, 860 days worth of losing the value was recovered. Of course, such rapid growth in currency value must have made exports difficult, so I assume there must have been some major intervention and the downtrend resumed after a beautiful double top. (the chart below dollar is SP500 as another anchor for our analysis) Then, there are two losers in this chart. It is important to mention two things. First, the charts present futures as the other indexes don't go as far. Second, a weak currency doesn't mean the country handled the crisis poorly. But as far as currencies go, AUD and EUR did perform rather poorly. // I think this is likely to be a repeated behavior. AUD is still a commodity currency and EUR pegs diverse economies to each other. This raises a question about stability as successful currencies require political and economical union too. Oil currencies such as NOK or CAD seem to also have dropped. I added Oil chart at the bottom. // I do think that this is likely to repeat with NOK, but not necessarily with CAD. Although the CAD is another commodity currency, it is perceived as safer to some degree. At least as far as I know. (could not find reliable NOK index) When it comes to currencies generally perceived as safe, Yen performed nicely and has risen more than 25% measuring from the lowest low between 2008 to the nearest significant top. The pair USDJPY was sideways-ish before the years 2007-2008 but is clearly downward-slope as Yen somewhat outperforms US Dollar. The same can't be said about the Swiss Franc which has only woken up after the dollar started to reverse. You can point out several weekly candles when the investors were rushing from the dollar and buying CHF in exchange in these times. // I think a Yen will express similar behavior. I am not sure what to make of CHF which is backed by gold more than other currencies and the gold has already risen quite high. I will leave it here without further interpretation, but I am looking forward to discussion if there is one, and I will make a few more similar posts in the future if this one becomes any popular.
TVC:DXYEducation
by OrcChieftain
26
RIP S&P 500?The SPX has reached the critical 1.618 Fibonacci level (using last retraction as reference) at the same time this could be interpreted as a retest of the broken bearish channel, which has been built up since the end of last year. This looks like an alert for what may come next if the Stock market decides to head downwards and revisit some old levels. ⚠ Plus, the RSI indicates an overbought market, supporting the bearish view on this. What do you think? An answer to that should come very soon, anyway... Safe tradings everyone.
TVC:SPXShort
by B4Baggio
4
S&P 5,000,000The talk of the town is the Market is overdue for a plummet! Fun fact: This has been the narrative for the last decade as far as I am aware. It's more likely that the major indicies will continue grinding up or even go sideways a bit. This chart certainly appears to signal "euphoria". It looks overextended, parabolic, intimidating, right? Now if we press the reality button labeled "log" it will adjust the chart based on percentage change. Then like magic, we can adjust the visual scale and BOOM, it's all gone. Of course the ideal chart to use lies somewhere in the middle. But when looking at a long term chart with large numbers, always use log scale. (Try it on Bitcoin) What are we even worried about? Suppose we do get a sell off. Let's measure out the damage from the Global Financial Crisis. We find more number magic with the percentage gains going up are far greater than while going down. What about the looming Solvency Crisis? "What if's" are not going to make anyone money unless you're the one selling click bait articles. But there is a way to trade this and still feel safe. Here are the conditions... Put on a 1 Hour chart, buy dips, sell rallies. Each short term rally is about $50-$100 on the S&P500 and the benefit of short term trades under the conditions below helps steer clear of "crisis" danger. 1. (Daily) MACD is above zero 2. (Daily) EMA is acting as support 3. (1 Hour) RSI dips to bottom channel There you have it. Feel free to stay on the sidelines with Peter Schiff and Steve Van Metere but this is my strategy for trading micro ES futures up until September 2021. Will post active trades below. Trading is risky. Don't do it.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by trade-God
5
SPX500 vs TLT : Are you expecting a big than ever drop? When...Just a fast idea about correlation between SPX500 (US500) and TLT. I'm more bearish than bullish over Sp500, however I just find out TLT correlation with market. Just read more... I was expected a major drop here in September, but seems not strong enough. My other target is around March / April. Why? Because of Financial results. Can we expect super good gains in a market that drained every stock reserve in 2 year where retails "buyed everything they can find, while at home?" I suppose no. You simply can't sell a 10$ Toys for 100$. If you can't find enough supply, at least you can rise price a little to 15$, maybe 20$. But if before you where able to sell 200.000 pcs x 10$ = 2M$, now you only have 10.000 x 15$ = 150.000$. Freaky! Can we expect a faster recover in production while there are production "bottle necks" everywhere? I suppose no. If I need 200.000 toys, I must find them. But if production limit is 1000 toys for week, and there are no stock reserve and high demand, my order must be shared with others. Price will be rise a little. And if my production machine broke, I must wait for a spare part. And if I produce Spare Part I must wait for chip supplier to produce it. To many "bottle necks" everywhere. Can we expect a fast FED tapering? Maybe not, will only accelerate collapse. So anyone will stay in silence, waiting ... for collapse. BUT WAIT... WHY TLT? IS IT WORTH? Maybe not so worth, but higher TLT prices means less buying interest on Governative Bond. Lower prices means more are buying TLT, and this means "standard stock market credibility" just slowing down , melting off. Reads : sell stock & buy bond / commodities. As always is only a matter of "capital movement" not to HODL till die. Just learn from Pro. Small gains everydays just build more capital than HODL. YES BUT MY BTC STORE VALUE IS GREAT! TO THE MOOOON! Ok, free to believe this. Only ask your self if Pro will really trust on BTC as temporary Store Value (like GOLD is only temporary) or if... they are going to screw every small retail. TO MAKE IT SIMPLE Whatever will happen, Oil prices, Tapering, Yield Interest, BTC to the moon... from a perspective of "simple buy and sell goods" we are already screwed. We need time to recap production, to fill warehouse, to arrange product stock supply reserve. Hope is oil price will no go up any further, hope is in some sensate economical intervention, hope is... in cypto decentralization Fomo anarchic mind set. Ok... We are all screwed. No way, only matter of time. ONE LAST THING... Can you figure the "Black Swan" when will enter in the play field? Who or what will be the Jolly Joker for a complete decline? Share your vision. ----------------- This is not Financial advice. Only my idea. Feel free to share, comment or add missing information. And why not? Will you consider to donate something for some other post like this? Just contact me.
NASDAQ:TLT
by STABLECOINS_GURU
SPX 500 : Correlation between stocks above EMA 200 and US500Just found this idea pretty interesting. If Avarage of stocks Above EMA 200 falls under about 55/60% usually we have a great SP500 correction. As always mostly of stocks are susceptible by some type of crisis : Real Estate Crisis, Governament Crisis, War Crisis, Epidemic Crisis. Quite notable is the rebound to normality, it tooks about 2 periods (vertical bars) or 2.7years. It start with a Big Drop on average of Stocks above EMA 200 and culminate with another BigDrop quite of the same entity. SOME CONSIDERATION OVER AVARAGE STOCKS ABOVE 200 Another thing that can be take in consideration is the "average of average of Stock Above 200". If we stay inside the 50-70% all seems to be quite stable, with a linear growth. If we are above 70% there is imotivate FOMO, really risky. (Didn't you find quite impossible that 90% of stocks are performing great?? How much it will last?) If we are below 50%-40% you should consider a SHORT POSITION almost everywhere. And if this happen, maybe, it will retouch the Crisis Starting point...than we can consider Crisis Period finished (maybe). WHERE WE ARE NOW? WHAT WILL HAPPEN? Seems we have quite surpassed the first period and so we officially enter in 2nd period. Things that we must highlight We are touching 50%, so we have 50% for a last rebound jump in 70% area (unlikely) and 50% for a BIG BIG DUMP First period is just terminated. What will be in next period? Maybe a small rebounce until spring - fall 2022? Will Sp500 keep his price or our direction is for 3200-2700$ on late December 2021? LAST CONSIDERATION Tapering, money printing, yield, Fomo, Fud, Oil Prices, Hurricanes, Epidemic disease, shortage problems : all those factor are contributing to a big volatily and uncertain. This week could be crucial to stabilize prices, invert direction... but could be only a correction before the big correction. Don't become emotional, calculate risk, be calm. Opportunity are always there like a treasure.
INDEX:MMTHShort
by STABLECOINS_GURU
5
Probable significant correction of S&P500 or financial crisisSo, It is too hard say exactly whether index just in 1 wave of 5 wave of bigger order and , as a consequence, everything ,what we should await, is just correction presenting the second wave of 5 wave of bigger order or the further correction will mean the end of bull market and the beginning of new bear phase of market and entrance into new global financial crisis, since all financial and economical problems have not been eliminated and the current increase of American financial market is based on just FED monetary policy and US. GOV. transfers to population.
SP:SPXShort
by BandBInvestment
1
Capital Formation Died Long AgoWe can see the effects of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Failures during the 2006 - 2009 crisis. The blame was reported on you, good citizen consumer. The collapse of the housing market, fueled by low interest rates, easy credit, insufficient regulation, extensive leverage and Toxic subprime mortgages led to the economic crisis of 06-09. Does this sound familiar? In reality, what caused the Financial Crisis was deregulation of the Financial edifice. Degenerate Gambling @ the Casino, whereby Private losses were backstopped with Public Funds. $34 Trillion from the US Central Bank to Global Financial Institutions. The problem currently, it is orders of magnitude worse. Buy STONKs, close your eyes and Buy everything. It'll be okay, we promise...
FRED:USAGFCFADSMEI
by HK_L61
2
DANGER WEEK AHEAD FOR THE DJI & MARKETSThe next 2 weeks in the market will likely be a roller coaster ride of volatility and emotion for inexperienced traders/investors alike. I see red flags everywhere in the markets. Lots of bearish divergences, rounded tops, complacency, bullish sentiment. New high after new high in the traditional markets, with cryptos also on a nice rally. I've been keeping watch on this DJI chart since July of 2020 and think now is the time to share it. As you can clearly see price action has been in a massive rising wedge. Price fell out of that wedge back on June, 11th of this year. Since then we have made new highs albeit very small and still below the wedge. Currently it seems to be in a smaller time frame ascending wedge. I want to bring your attention to the convergence of all 3 of these trend lines. The first 2 being both rising wedge lines and the third is the top of the local ascending wedge. Interestingly enough they all meet on Friday, September 10th; the last trading day before the 20th 9/11 anniversary. I can see a meltup on the DOW this upcoming week to 37,850 or so before a nasty rejection kiss off these three lines. Then a crisis (catalyst) happens this weekend and when trading resumes on Monday, September 13th complete carnage ensues. I'll leave it up to you to figure out what that might be, but the significance of the date along with what is going on in Afghanistan should give some clues. Fundamentals are liquidity via unemployment stimulus drying up, housing eviction moratorium coming to a halt, labor and supply shortages. Just this week Toyota announced they were slashing global production by a whopping 40%! I want to close this post by saying that I hope nothing bad happens to our country and the world this month. The last 18 months have been stressful enough. Unfortunately the charts are screaming otherwise. I'll follow up with a closeup of this chart and also some supporting documentation.
TVC:DJIShort
by CryptoDude79
4
Jerome Powell & The Ridiculous 1% Inflation RateJerome Powell stated that the Inflation Rate was moving at about 1%. It's actually been moving at about 3.65% over the past year but has started rising rapidly at about 7.67% since the Biden Administration seized control of the White House. The Trump Administration had an average Inflation Rate of about 2.14%. Currently the Inflation Rate is about 350% greater than it was before. The Crisis Event Indicator will hit Critical around June 1. The CE Indicator has predicted every Crisis Event following 9/11. Someone should go ahead and get Powell prepared for the next major crisis event which will be hitting very soon since he is living in the magical world of 1950's Inflation Rates and we now live in the age of Inflation Control Crisis Events.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by cldx
1
What might happen to the market in coming weeks/monthsThis is my favorite analysis I give my qualified bid here on how NASDAQ and the market are going to evolve. the graph is very similar to the financial crisis and makes exactly the same pattern, on top, bottom, RSI and MACD. 10-y bond have fallen and as I wrote in my other analysis, bonds will return to 0.95 and up again to 1.5. it's making a cup and handle now. Follow the dates on the 1,2,3,4,5 wave and compare it with 10-y bond, and financial crisis(15. march 2011 to 17. june 2011).
TVC:IXIC
by Fatihy00
5
Future of Safe Haven currencies --> Flashback to 2008 analysis Hi all! This is my idea on the future of the so-called Safe Haven currencies. Remember, people in the need of defense against coming inflation turn into currencies or gold as they do not have much knowledge or energy for other assets. This is why good analysis is needed to see in what currency to invest. In the post-crisis period (4 years), both sides, the euro, and dollar initially behaved the same, reducing from their "crisis" peaks. In the longer term, the euro was most stable, consolidating in the upper/middle limits of the crisis. In turn, the dollar was marked by a stronger initial correction (it lasted about 260 days after the economy calmed down), then the rate accounted for fluctuations due to uncertainty. Frank had the best percentage return, moreover, it did not experience such corrections as the dollar in the same period. Look at the graph and compare the marked period, you will see that all three currencies behave more the same as in 2008. Key Facts: - the franc earned the most but the value of covid financial aid is unprecedented, - the dollar did not repeat the history in 100% and fell below the pre-covid rate (a chance for an increase), - printing the dollar does not help its rate, rather flooding the capital market with cash (blowing a bubble). I encourage you to do your own analysis based on your home currency, I used zloty as the second currency in the pair. Feel free to comment, give your thoughts. Would appreciate it if you like it! Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. Always do your own analysis. Be aware that only you are responsible for your trades. Trade safe and keep in mind the risk!
by AGAdam
1