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BTC markov method follow-up, initial pt reachedThis worked out scary well... I'd need a bigger sampe to confirm the method is consistent, but examine the following dynamics of the BTC movement through this "matrix" built around the initial symmetrical channel: - 31616.3 was my target last week when it was 28k merely because that level marked the upper bound (top point of local diamond) of the next most probable state - i.e. at the time of last analysis the most likely neigborhood of an adjacent state of 4 sections (individual boxes) had an upperbound at the 3161.3 level. - In general BTCUSD has been respecting each state like clockwork - this means when it gets near upper-bound of state it pulls back to lower bound of state and vice versa. The probability of the next state given the current state is based on the probabilities of the stochastic matrix, but one cn actually eyeball the tendency of yellow path (I call this the "yellow brick road" because it leads to the emerald city lol, i.e. new highs to around 83k by end of year; if it strays from the yellow brick road t risks meeting the wicked witch of the west, aka danger, aka risk to 13-23k to establish a bottom if we don't breakout of the markov grid (breakout would be around 34k-41k. So... the tendecy of the yellow path is like a connect 4 mid-point creek that moves +- 1 units in alternating (typically) fashion, every now and then going 2 up after a 1 down which gives it the updward drift pushing toward breakout. The reason there are intermittent consecutive ups with +2 and not +3, +4, +5,... within the +-1 pattern is because to go +2 in the time period for each state (which is constant) is still approximately linear, however after +2 it becomes non-linear - specifically expanding geometric with limit as n approaches infinity becoming exponential... The stochastic matrix is by design a system of linear equations so when a +2 and especially +3 occurs there is a bifurcation in the probability outputs (they go haywire) that signals this +3 or more w.r.t path is truly a change in structure ~ NOW THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING: during the move off last weeks lows there was a break of structure (or at least break of expected path defining structure)... it moved up for 2 consecutive states and then "jumped" up a 3rd consecutive state (the mechanics of what this means are in the above point. The interpretation of what this means is more clear; the prediction of near-term price action now becomes more complex but at the same time it confirms that volatility will escalate and that makes it a traders market again which we all should love. See below for Interpretation and Prediction: Interpretation : I mentioned last week that the rate of state transitions was starting to accelerate around the chopzone at 28-30k and because of that the probability of next state being higher with upper bound (and therefore initial target) of 31616.3 was a lot closer to 1 than 0 (previously the transition probabilities had been around 74-78%, the initial shift took the probability to 88. Now the rate that the shift is accelerating has increased substantially and, thus, forced the path structure to a non-linear system. The question now becomes, (a) will it remain non-linear (a way to evaluate at a non-linear level via approximation will be to redefine the size of a state to be proportional with the degree of the non-linear form (e.g. quadratic (which is where it is currently would require a neighborhood of 8 (2 x 4) sections to capture the implied range)... if not (a) then it would likely exhibit properties similar to when an asset goes parabolic and then breaks down when the movement becomes unstable - in our case it would imply a sharp pullback to around 29-30k (equal but opposite to the non-linear degree realized by the movement to local maximum state) and that would ultimately reset back to the linear path (i.e. back into the sideways consolidation). b) is the bifurcation to non-linear path necessary to initiate the breakout from consolidation (rather than an anomaly that reverts back to linear base). (b) is the most plausible if it establishes new support here at the 31616.3. We are about to see moment of truth at this very moment and I have mapped out how to play both of the 2 possibilities: PREDICTION: - If 31616.3 can hold here as support, expect next leg up to attempt breakout around 34k-37k (has 41k old support above that to deal with ut were not there yet - if this doesn't hold it will test support around 30.8k, which if that fails expect the reset-to-linear scenario back down to the 28-30k range. - A third possibility (c) is that it over-corrects from the bifurcation in structure and goes from non-linear at degree +2-+3 into a non-linear -2 to -3 (which could take it to 23k-13k. Either way... we're not in Kansas anymore don't expect the boring sideways price action recently to continue from here. I'll update on which scenario has higher probability given condition around if it holds 31616.3. ~Best Knocksville Johnny
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
BTC Approaching Potential Death Cross 5-7 DaysWOW! BTC - Old Logarithmic Discovery - on the Daily The heading will be relevant IF Price consolidates or continues down over the next 5-7 Days... But do read the rest of my observation... I opened an old log chart I hadn't looked at that had a Fib Extension I had drawn back in Feb 2021. I was amaze how well the 1 Fib aligned with the recent ATH before BTC capitulated. From there I cleaned out some old irrelevant lines other than the Macro Trend Line from the March 13th 2020 dump at $3,730 . I then added a couple relevant lines, and callouts. I noted the last 2 consistent Death and Golden Crosses along with the current potential Death Cross if things continue down. It blew my mind how the current POC (Point of Control - Red line) is almost dead in line with the old .786 Fib It also blew my mind that when as to where the '1' Fib line intersected with the old $3,730 Macro Trend, which was almost a signal that we were approaching the beginning of the end of the bull run. It's almost as though as soon as we fell below the Macro Trend after the Death Cross, we weren't able to get back above the Macro Trend even after the Golden Cross. The thin white trend line at the current price action is showing resistance still. So if price can't retest above that thin white trend line over the next 5 to 7 days, we may have a Death Cross on our hands... 1st chart is a view of where the old trend line started... 2nd chart is the zoom-out 3rd chart is the local zoom-in
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by CryptDude
Is Bitcoin in real trouble?Well, some sneered a few weeks ago when I pointed out the 1D trend switch, that created a probability of a 50% correction. It happened. There was a deafening silence thereafter. As I say too often trend switches create probabilities which predict nothing. In this chart I'm looking at the 3D time frame where price has moved up to touch the ATR line. This is usually a critical point. It doesn't mean that price is bound to reverse. If you believe Bitcoin is going to $500,000 this is your opportunity to put your money where your mouth is. If you believe price is likely to vacillate at this this level and travel further south then you short it - at your own risk of course. If you are a sensible trader and you want to wait - avoiding FOMO - then do that. The great thing about trading is that you can do whatever you want! Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
BTC;Criticality &Phase Transition; Thermodynamics of SpeculationThis is just a quick take on how markets , and more specifically Speculation - in it's most general, universal sense -, is informed by similar critical dynamics as those found underlying other social interactions. (The math is hidden. You're welcome.) What this is Not , is a ready-to-use model since the specific parameters or the full model description are not part of the proceeding. The following "As is ..." ; This statistical–mechanical model is based on the Boltzmann–Lotka–Volterra (BLV) method. BLV models involve two components: a fast equilibration, Boltzmann , component and a slow dynamic, Lotka–Volterra , component. The Boltzmann component applies maximum entropy principle to derive the static flow patterns of instruments (or their utility , as is the case). The Lotka–Volterra component evolves the spatial distribution (Price & Time; i.e.the chart) and the flow pattern of a information according to generalized Lotka–Volterra equations for distributed information. The resultant dynamics exhibit critical regimes, interpreted as phase transitions , where a small variation in suitably chosen (control) parameters changes the global outcomes measured via specific aggregated quantities (order parameters). The main take-away here is that this is in line with the idea that, despite the complexity of such a system (as depicted) only few parameters may be necessary to understand drastic macroscopic changes. The maximum entropy method has been applied to a variety of collective phenomena (E.g., Speculation; Yours Truly) suggesting a formal analogy between complex, socio-economic systems and thermodynamic systems. We use a clear thermodynamic interpretation of the Fisher information as the second derivative of free entropy. Specifically, we investigate the minimum work required to vary a control parameter and trace configuration entropy and internal energy, according with the first law of thermodynamics. The thermodynamic work is defined via Fisher information and thus can be computed solely based on probability distributions estimated from available data. Once we introduce the concept of thermodynamic efficiency as the ratio of the order gained during a change to the required work (information transmission), it can be rather easily demonstrated that it is maximized at criticality . Note; The above further illustrates the common observation that Technical Analysis fails, in most cases, to capture (forecast) Finite-time Singularities - i.e the sudden appearance of exponential price increases or price collapses ( crashes ).
Education
by Nemo_Confidat
7
Watch the Indians The Indians are in a similar position to many other stock indices. Three things can happen here: 1. Price goes below the amber ATR line, and then rocks north like a bat outta hell - or 2. Price collapses below ATR line and continues south for a while. 3- Price continues to range within a horizontal band. Whatever happens there is money to be made here - if you control your acceptable loss. If you have dosh to burn take long or short. If you don't have dosh to burn you could play a ranging market on a 3 min to 5 min time frame milking small trends that can run for hours. Or you can do both of the above. Skill and experience cannot be provided in this post. Trend following is far more difficult than other forms of trading with potentially heavier losses and extraordinary gains. There are no targets in true trend following. Hence only about 20% of all traders according to research are true tend followers (not to be confused with trend continuation trading).
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
DAX COLLAPSE POSSIBLE: Does history repeat itself?This is an analysis of trend formation. The DAX (Ger30) appears to be in a precarious position. Several features are shown on the charts. No one knows what the future will bring. Some may have ideas but no one can know the future. Sound traders take positions with an acceptable, affordable loss. Looking back to 25th February 2020, no one knew with near certainty that the DAX would fall further from around 12600. Then it happened. This does not mean that in the current situation, I'm saying that the DAX will fall in the same way from 11600. It's a strange coincidence though that '600' appears in the numbers. Please do not attach significance to that. Some have been disappointed that I do not do predictions. I've explained my position on predictions before. Trend following requires no predictions. Why? Because one is just following the markets rather blindly! I've also explained how my unique methodology works in other posts. On a related note you can see that one thing the markets are deathly afraid of is the effects of COVID-19. Well, around now the world is facing second and third waves of the virus heading at speed for Winter in the Northern hemisphere. I have evidence for both second and third waves. Due to house rules this is not posted here. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30Education
by Captain_Walker
AUDJPY (8H): Opportunity for a controlled lossYep - nobody likes to hear about losses. But there is no way to gain in the markets without taking the risk of loss. Can you afford it? If not leave it alone. See: 1 - zone of congestion. 2 - near fib 50% 3 - near ATR on 8h. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Short
by Captain_Walker
US TECH: GAME OVER?Well, get your popcorn ready!! US Tech 100 is in a precarious position. This is another thing that rules the world! Price ducked below 11000 - which is considered important. Will it stay below? How would I know? 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️ At time of posting price is a 10920-ish. Does this mean the backs of the USTECH and NASDAQ are broken? Of course not. Expect permabulls to do their stuff. We need them - for the big money transfer- so they're much loved! 🤣 Price action on this on the 3 to 5 min time frame today was soooo exciting! LOL. Call me a nerd - it's fine. LOL. 😉😎 If you wanna see what's really happening you just gotta get dirty in the trenches! I'll be doing a video soon, showing how I look at price action in the indices, comparing the rule of Tech100 with other indices. Stock up on popcorn! 😂👳‍♂️ I don't do predictions - because I believe trend is more important than price . Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFDEducation
by Captain_Walker
lower highs are formed for fkli_junenot looking gud for fkli as more lower-highs are formed in hourly chart...IF the breakout of 1486-1490 happens, we shall see more selling pressure...the gud news is, june is " windows-dressing" month...so probably we will see some uplift during the last few days of the month.. immediate and critical support : 1486-1480 immediate resistance : 1515 - 1520 depends on SMA-200 strategy : short on rebound or wait for breakout of 1486 support...
MYX:FKLI1!Short
by HAIDOJO_trading