$CRM Bullish Channel - Unusual Options Activity$CRM Salesforce.com holding within what looks like a bullish channel for the last few months.
- Bullish options activity today with 15k $155.00 strike (OTM lottos trading for under $1.00 - Delta 0.11) Jan 18th 2019 call options traded for $1M in premium against OI under 5k. As well as 3.8k $135.00 strike (ATM - Delta 0.54) Feb 2019 call options traded for $3.3M in premium against OI just over 1k.
Price target based on channel trend lines = $153 by mid-January (which would mean I'm forecasting the $155 lottos will expire worthless)
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
CRM
CRM: Risk for Topping Due to RotationSalesforce.com has had a great run up from the 2015-2016 correction. CRM stock is now showing an extreme Angle of Ascent on the weekly chart and has risk of a potential topping action. Support is weak at the bounce area at this time. The stock shows steady rotation patterns as the final peak high developed. Rotation is the lowering of inventories of a stock by Dark Pools.
Salesforce New All Time High - Before Christmas?! Nasdaq is down 13.5% off of its ATH while I'm making this call. :) Blood is in the streets.
NYSE:CRM Has built a massive Inverse H&S pattern that is completing it's trend reversal process and about to explode to a new all time high. We're seeing accumulation and accelerated buying right now while the market overall is extremely fearful and bearish (overly so). Fundamentally this company is on fire. It's currently significantly undervalued because of the fear in the market and since earnings is weathering the storm like a rock. I've taken this opportunity to accumulate significantly more.
Salesforce is on the A-team of the software squad and ideally positioned to harpoon any whales that come near their boat.
It has promoted itself as the emblematic tech growth stock promising to smash $16 billion of annual revenue by next year.
The number of deals generating more than $1 million was up 46% YOY in the third quarter.
Salesforce is poised to continue its ascent and that basically means quarterly sales growth in the mid-20s for the foreseeable future.
There is an addressable market of $200 billion and the pipeline is rich as ever could be.
Salesforce has really turned the corner with free cash flow and profitability. It was only a few years ago they were turning in heavy losses, but this new Salesforce will be even more profitable as the network effect makes the sum of the parts and each add-on cloud-based software tool even more valuable.
Salesforce beat and raised its outlook calming the frayed nerves of investors looking to dump software stocks.
Just look at the billings growth that was anticipated at 19%, Salesforce smashed it by 8% coming in at 27%.
Not only are they scooping up new customers, but renewals have been just as robust.
The truth is that Salesforce can’t roll out enough cloud-based software products to meet the insatiable demand.
All of this backs up my thesis that software stocks will be the outsized winners of 2019.
Salesforce new all time high before Christmas! R/R very goodNasdaq is down 13.5% off of its ATH while I'm making this call. :) Blood is in the streets.
NYSE:CRM Has built a massive Inverse H&S pattern that is completing it's trend reversal process and about to explode to a new all time high. We're seeing accumulation and accelerated buying right now while the market overall is extremely fearful and bearish (overly so). Fundamentally this company is on fire. It's currently significantly undervalued because of the fear in the market and since earnings is weathering the storm like a rock. I've taken this opportunity to accumulate significantly more.
Salesforce is on the A-team of the software squad and ideally positioned to harpoon any whales that come near their boat.
It has promoted itself as the emblematic tech growth stock promising to smash $16 billion of annual revenue by next year.
The number of deals generating more than $1 million was up 46% YOY in the third quarter.
Salesforce is poised to continue its ascent and that basically means quarterly sales growth in the mid-20s for the foreseeable future.
There is an addressable market of $200 billion and the pipeline is rich as ever could be.
Salesforce has really turned the corner with free cash flow and profitability. It was only a few years ago they were turning in heavy losses, but this new Salesforce will be even more profitable as the network effect makes the sum of the parts and each add-on cloud-based software tool even more valuable.
Salesforce beat and raised its outlook calming the frayed nerves of investors looking to dump software stocks.
Just look at the billings growth that was anticipated at 19%, Salesforce smashed it by 8% coming in at 27%.
Not only are they scooping up new customers, but renewals have been just as robust.
The truth is that Salesforce can’t roll out enough cloud-based software products to meet the insatiable demand.
All of this backs up my thesis that software stocks will be the outsized winners of 2019.
CRM-Salesforce-STRONG SELLNYSE:CRM initiate STRONG SELL.
CRM extended Cycle Wave 1.
CRM is beginning Cycle Wave 2.
Waves:
Fibonacci Levels:
Fibonacci Retrace Levels:
Hypothetical Price-action:
Cycle Wave 2 Terminal and Time estimate: $48 + 394 days
Will update.
-AB
For more information regarding the 'FANG' trade visit the related idea (QQQ-The Great Fall).
THE WEEK AHEAD: CRM, ANF, HPQ EARNINGS; XOP, NFLX, FCX, EEMEARNINGS WITH A RANK >70/IMPLIED >50:
CRM (81/52): Announces on Tuesday after market close. The pictured defined risk setup pays a greater than a one-third of the wing width 1.89 with break evens between the expected and one standard deevy.
ANF (68/86): Announces Thursday before market open. The Dec 21st 16 short straddle was paying 3.04 as of Friday close; the 25 delta 14/19 short strangle, 1.19.
HPQ (85/41): Announces Thursday after market close. The Dec 21st 22/23 skinny short strangle is paying 1.45, which makes for a near nominal trade at 25% max (.36 profit). Look for background implied to ramp up to 50 plus; otherwise, pass on a play.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH A RANK >50/IMPLIED >35:
USO (100/66): I tend to use this more as of oil volatility indicator than anything (although you can naturally look at that more directly with OVX). Here, it's saying "Sell premium in petro underlyings," which for me means XOP, XLE, or OIH.
UNG (96/104): With UNG, I'm waiting for a seasonality short, but think putting on something in December is likely to be too early. January, however, is coming into range (currently 54 DTE).
XOP (85/45): A smidge early to go out to January, but the 29/36 is paying a 1.52 in that expiry; the 32/33 "skinny," 3.58.
SINGLE NAME WITH A RANK OF >70/IMPLIED >50/EARNINGS IN REAR VIEW:
NFLX (78/59): It's still got juice ... . The Jan 18th 25-delta 220/225/300/305 iron condor's paying 2.13 at the mid (but the platform's showing wide markets, so that may not be as hot at NY open).
FCX (71/55): The Jan 18th 11 short straddle is paying 1.73.
BROAD MARKET:
EEM (71/27)
QQQ (66/28)
IWM (62/24)
SPY (39/21)
EFA (13/20)
CRM bearish divergence pointing to short term correctionCRM is a name in a long term uptrend I really like for a long, and the technicals are telling me a long signal may be coming up soon. But first, we're getting some pretty clear short signals that I fully intend to take advantage of.
CRM has been trending up in a long term channel and recently the lower support line has risen much sharper while the resistance line remains the same, giving us a beautiful descending wedge pattern to play off of. Resistances right now are the Upper Bollinger Band and the upper resistance of the channel. While Salesforce has been able to breach the Upper Bollinger Band in the past, it generally cannot maintain the breakout for long, and always rejects hard when up against the channel resistance.
Further, the daily chart is setting up bearish divergence on the MACD and RSI oscillators, adding to my confidence of a short term correction in the near future.
We currently have a double bottom on the daily at 158.93, the loss of which could signal an earlier entry. I'm looking for a loss of the hourly higher lows to signal an entry - in the current formation that would be a loss of 158.12 support. My profit target would be to cover in the $150-145 range, and I would cover for a loss if we set a new all time high above 161.08.
CRM is nearing support before potential bull runCRM is nearing strong support at $150 and has recently bounced strongly 3% of of that support yesterday. CRM looks to have also created a steep bull run in the past year. Given the increase in momentum and no real concerns from analysts, CRM has a good chance at touching the top of it's channel come January at the $180 area. The January calls at strike $160 are trading at just under $8, but will fall to the $6.50 area if CRM retests $150. Given a potential $180 run by mid January, I'd give those calls a 1/3 risk/reward ratio if held until expiration, or an even better risk/reward of 0.5/3 if willing to cover in the even that $150 breaks. I'm waiting until CRM either nears $152.5 or breaks above $157.5 to enter the aforementioned calls.
CRM 10-Day-Ahead Prediction - 04/02-04/13 PeriodArtificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled 10 Day Ahead Predicted values for Salesforce.com - CRM have been plotted on the chart.
The method used in this prediction is Deep Learning based, and using complex mathematical models to extract hidden time series features in vast amounts of CRM related data.
We have chosen the stocks with the highest expected percentage change in 10 Days, and CRM is one of them.
The expected 5 Day Change is 4.9324 %
The expected 10 Day Change is 5.942 %
Predictability Indicator is calculated as : 0.847
Predicted 10-Day Ahead Prices are as follows:
Mon Apr 02 Tue Apr 03 Wed Apr 04 Thu Apr 05 Fri Apr 06
119.89 121.29 121.46 121.68 122.03
Mon Apr 09 Tue Apr 10 Wed Apr 11 Thu Apr 12 Fri Apr 13
122.58 123.04 123.19 123.16 123.21
Please note that outliers/non-linearities might occur, however our Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled predictions indicate the softened/smoothed moving direction of the stocks/commodities/World indices/ETFs/Foreign Currencies/Cryptocurrencies.
Feel free to contact me for your questions.
CRM Salesforce - Time for a PullbackSpinning Top candlestick forming on the weekly. xSilas' Godmode and Stoch RSI both throwing up cautionary signs on almost every timeframe. Hanging out at the top of the Bollinger Bands and looking for a reversion.
Entry at $125. Stop set at $132 in case this thing defies all. Take profit at $109-$110, but may very well just hit Bollinger's mean and keep climbing up. Short in the short run, Long other wise. Good upcoming opportunity to "buy the dip", as they say.
Squiggly lines for fun.
$crm rising wedge breakdown daily chart showing price pullback to prior support-high r/r for bearish continuation with multiple test of resistance 89.3x
mid time frame showing bearish wedge breakdown-solid momentum breaking out of wedge
monitoring price action on lower time frame to see follow-thru
tech sector looking weaker also
crm looking for retest of 91 area support--daily time frame is strong..rising MA's and adx is showing strength in uptrend
-intermediate timeframe showing strong uptrend with bulls in control on the steep impulse move and rising MA's
-looking for a shallow pullback to retest 91 support area and entry
-stop loss set at the intermediate term moving average
-reaching support on trendline for rsi in upward trend
-volume showing positive pressure and showing strength
-looking for a nice pullback and bounce and break out resistance area of 91.82
-riding trend but paying attention to what the price action is telling me
CRM long strategya long strategy on CRM
trend for sector and stock is long
I have underlined in yellow and purple some tendencies of this price
I added a pitchfork to follow the path of the stock
all explanation are into the chart
I'll enter step by step, following the trend
time is months till cash in (even in that case, I'll cash in step by step...)
this is a raw idea, looking for some feedback to validate or change or abort!
to get more infos about CRM >
people > www.reuters.com
analyst > www.reuters.com
> marketrealist.com
> marketrealist.com
CRM - Double to short setup from $82.46 to $75.13, Jun 85 put CRM is forming a possible Adam & Eve double top formation. Moneyflow is diverging & now sharply heading down.
It also has a lot of insider selling recently. We think it has very good decline potential.
On the option side we would consider June $85.00 Puts, last traded for $5.00
* Trade Criteria *
Date first found- March 20, 2017
Pattern/Why- Adam & Eve double top formation
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $82.46
Exit Target Criteria- $78.33, 2nd - $75.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $84.57
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
CRM- Short as it breaks below $73.03, & $72.5 May puts @ $6.25CRM
Date First Found - November 15, 2016
Pattern/Why- breakdown of trend line and up channel, possible earnings play
Entry Target Criteria- break below $73.03
Exit Target Criteria- $57.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $77.37
Indicator Notes- declining Twiggs Money Flow
Special Note- we would consider May $72.50 Puts currently @ $6.25
Next Earnings Release Date- November 17, 2016
Third indicator CRM will dropHistorically when CRM hits this level it drops a minimum of 5.23% and an average drop of 13.21%. Historical support is just south of 67.00 so my conservative play is a drop to at least 67.00. This is the third indicator this week signalling a drop in the very near term. Great PUT plays to be had.
ADDITIONAL INDICATOR CRM is heading downFor the second trading day in a row, another historical indicator points to continued decline for CRM. Historically when TSI breaks below this level, the stock drops at least 1.05%, with an average of 2.37%. There are two long term support trendlines and the nearest is around 65.30.
A conservative drop to around 65.75 within the next few weeks is my safer play. PUT options could bring in 15-35% if placed appropriately.
The long term trend is a wedge with an apex around 68.88 for November 2017. Most like the stock will break the wedge prior to that point but could be entering a state of less than 10 point moves over many months.
SALES PROBLEM FOR SALESFORCE?Historically when the RSI for CRM hits this level, the stock drops at least 1%. The more likely figure is 4.82%. A conservative drop continues along one of the many trendlines. My play is a drop of around 3.83%.
This play could bring in 20-41% with perfectly placed PUTs.
TWTR: Sell puts until December 16 or buy stockWe can reenter TWTR longs safely at the open tomorrow here.
After Disney and Google backed off from bidding to acquire TWTR, the stock sold off drastically but now landed on a key earnings support level, so it's logical to expect a technical rebound here. We can enter longs at market open tomorrow, risking a drop to 15.70. I would stick to 0.5% risk for this one, or consider selling puts (or using a risk/reversal option strategy) to profit from the expected rally.
CRM is still in the table, so, we might see some positive news come out, and buyers step in to support TWTR here asap.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.