Crosses
AUDNZD REVERSAL TRENDAUDNZD PRICE is expected to finish the bearish wave soon
Positive divergence is shown on MACD and RSI on H1 Frame
Resistance area is around level 1.0522
If price breaks this level, the price will confirm the start of bullish wave by crossing downtrendline and Moving Average 100
Target is around level 1.0660
Hot; EURUSD rocket upIt's finally happening. USDJPY (UJ) is going to drop into the Abyss and EURUSD (EU) will therefore rocket into the sky and perhaps beyond. See my writing style footnote below if the first line somehow bothers you.
Not much time before it starts (maybe it already is) but you will have plenty of time to trade both symbols because I predict EU to start a bull run lasting for almost 2 years and counting possibly up to 2700 pips or more.
Even though everything signals this process has started, pls be highly sceptical at all times. The USD purchasing bull may show up again and do another surprise run like it did a few times this week and every time again surprising me with new forms of price action.
Grab your game! Watch as the trend forms because speculators need to agree on the trend and until then it can be choppy waters. Scalpers may ike this.
Trading 101 sumup follows;
Ask me to detail a subject and I'll publish an idea if I have the time. It's a new idea of me to improve the quality of my ideas and chat messages as I have been told by other traders that I direct everybody into 100% losses :(
If you would like to scalp or day trade and don't know how to trade low volumes then stay away from Mondays and Fridays and trade only London and NY sessions. As the days may shift around due to scheduled process, do a couple of small trades to validate liquidity and therefore your r/r ratio.
Don't be fooled by the likely many signals that the market or its participants have/will set out for you, also known by many as stop hunts, traps, etc. You may already see some of this evidence right now (2.16pm UTC onwards*) similar to what we have seen before and after UJ dropped late November and early December '17, see my ideas for food for thoughts on this. Also back then, the actual process of change seems to start in extra trading hour after market close, which makes you wonder how random the market wants to look.
* Just had a look at 2.16pm UTC and discovered the head hunt is hammer making process. So one may assume it was formed by a programmed algo instead of honest buyers and sellers reacting to price change. Now that I have published this I wonder if someone else has before and if not how long it will take to change.
So start your trades not earlier than Tuesday at London open, (if it's not a holiday, I haven't checked) and do not trade Friday even if it looks like everything will be happening then. If you are confident and testing the liquidity turns out positive then go ahead, but as soon your experience negative change stop right away, call it the day and accept your losses under solid risk management.
If you are a swing trader it's also best to start your trade on Tuesday till Thursday within London or NY session as explained above. Constant liquidity will be in your favour, especially when you trade larger trade unit quantities, think of whole and multiple lots.
1) Buy the low and sell the top. This is obviously true and if applied well, improves you trading performance. How? Well, on a 4H time frame you could just enter wrongly and be looking at red numbers for at least 4 hours, while at the same time missing out opportunities on the other side of the market.
2) Buy the fall and sell the rise... ;)
Ofc you can always post questions in the FX chat room. People there sometimes seem very busy and remotely interested but that is because you may just have missed one of the many that do help out beginners or there is something interesting going on with one of the FX assets. Keep trying!
Cheers,
Arnaud
Footnote: One time message on writing style for all my ideas,
My apologies for my choice of words, it is my writing style. I like to add a little spice to the mix of the imho somewhat metaphorical stuffy and slow moving industry. My analysis and technical experience are mainly from a much faster moving and progressive industry and sector. Thanks for reading.
Another note: I hit 4k idea doc limit so I used space savers.
GBP/JPY Downtrend- Channel plays Not a fan of cross currency pairs but GBP/JPY is one of the more popular ones and correlates well with USD/JPY. The strong uptrend where GBP was rising and JPY was falling came to an end with the confirmation of new lower highs and lower lows being created. Sterling has recently lost some of its strength after being rejected at major resistance also fundamentals and issues with the countries safety after a terrorist attack (shame) caused the currency to lose value and JPY to rise (safe haven). Currently we're still trading in a downtrend making LL and LH, but there are a few channels that we could trade into soon. Depending on price action we will continue moving down in the current channel (or falling below it) or we can break the current channel and start making HH, HL moving up into the upper channel and above. Flexibility, patience and price action signals/patterns will be the key for how this one plays out.
GBP/JPY – fresh demand expected near Aug high support The overbought nature of the daily RSI and the loss of the bullish momentum showed by the daily MACD suggests in the short-run a pull back to August high of 138.83 is likely.
Dips below 138.83 could be bought into given the bullish 5-MA and 10-MA crossover on the weekly and the bullish weekly RSI.
On the higher side, a weekly close above the falling trend line would add credence to the view that the pair has bottomed out and would open doors for 151.65 (Apr 2016 low).
AUDNZD Bearish Basic StructureSimple short trade on the AUDNZD here, price has been making lower highs and lower lows on the 4H timeframe. Decide to place 2 limit orders on the 0.618 and 0.786 RETRACEMENT OF XA.
Identified possible areas of reversal as my profit targets. Shooting for extended targets.
NZDCHF BEARISH BUTTERFLY and BULLISH CYPHER LONG? SHORT?Identified 2 Advanced patterns on the NZDCHF.
Purple Triangles represent a BEARISH BUTTERFLY(Completed)
Blue Triangles represent a BULLISH CYPHER
Clearly we are now stuck at an impasse, to go LONG or SHORT, that is the question.
Taking a step back to the 1D time frame, we can see that price has moved in a pennant formation ( grey lines) While it is not within my trading plan to utilise such price patterns, a price breakout to the up/down side is known to follow the termination of a pennant. Thus, we know that SOMETHING is BOUND to happen, but which direction will it go?
Based on the 1D and 1W time frame, this pair seems to be in a downtrend, so i would be entering on the BEARISH BUTTERFLY. However i have yet to refer to the fundamentals such as the COT report and/or Currency Strength Meters.
Thus my current verdict would be to short this pair