**Bitcoin’s Path Beyond $100K: Is the Bull Market at a Crossroad
Bitcoin’s historic surge past $100,000 has ignited intense debate among market analysts, as shifting dynamics in long-term and retail activity reshape the landscape. While retail demand continues to buoy BTC’s price, data shows a significant shift among long-term holders, who have sold approximately 828,000 BTC—worth over $82 billion—within the past 30 days.
This unprecedented selling activity, primarily by those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more, has raised questions about the sustainability of the current bull run. Analysts are divided: some argue the influx of retail demand will maintain upward momentum, while others warn that declining liquidity and increasing selling pressure could signal a market cooldown.
As the debate unfolds, traders closely monitor whether Bitcoin's strong retail demand can outpace the effects of long-term holders exiting positions. Is this consolidation a healthy pause or a sign of potential turbulence ahead? The coming weeks may determine if Bitcoin’s rally has more fuel to climb higher or is nearing a turning point.
Crossroads
KAVAUSD crossroadsKAVA on the daily chart has reached the top and broke through the channel. Currently inside the ICH cloud. keeping an eye to see if its rejected on the 50 sma or breaks through and holds. Seems to be bullish signals on the 1 hour charts but thats a little to low to comfirm a bullish break. As always not finiancil advise, so its not.
BTC/USDTBTC currently on wave 1 and already breaks 23% global Fibonacci line after recover from ABC correction for almost 40 days. Its already at the top of the Keltner Trend and there is a lot of space to go down back to 45k. If wave 1 ends here, correction for wave 2 have a potential to bring back down BTC to 45k, but if the 1st wave continue to break 53k and peak somewhere at 50kish, wave 2 will most likely ends at the current level of 49k. Lets see if the fibonacci line holds which also being supported by EMA 7 & 20 and pushes BTC even higher or it breaks and let BTC going downward back to 45k. If we look back into july, wave 1 BTC was peak under EMA 7 & 20 and was unable to break it up, forcing BTC to go back down to the level where wave 1 started to find more liquidity. But now the case is different. Either way, RSI seems very promising.
Short-term moment of truth for BTCIt looks like a short-term "moment of truth" is happening right now for bitcoin as it starts to approach the "channel cross" of which I mentioned in previous writings.
One option looks like the price is hitting the top of the descending channel (dashed red lines) and it is then going to continue downward between 54.5K and 57K (a break near 57.5K would be better confirmation).
Another option is that the price will head to 60K, staying in the ascending channel (dashed blue lines), and either continuing upward in the channel up to near the ATH (or beyond) or be rejected at 60K, which is the current neckline (dashed yellow line) of what looks like an inverse head and shoulders pattern starting.
The pattern that looks the most appealing in my opinion would be a dip to form a more solidified inverse head and shoulders pattern, but with other ALTs breaking out, it is quite possible that a breakout could occur from here as well.
It should be interesting to see where BTC goes from here as this looks to be right around the crossroads for a short-term direction. If you see anything indicating a more solidified direction, please leave a note in the comments as I would love to hear what you think.
Momentum Building With Lower HighsAfter making a strong trend higher for the bulk of this year, price in this market has been in consolidation mode for the past two months.
As the daily chart shows; price has been winding up tighter and tighter with a series of lower highs.
Price is now coming to an important crossroads. Momentum has been building lower with each test of the major support showing weaker buying.
For the trend higher to continue this support is crucial. A break lower and there is a large amount of room to fall into.
CrossroadsWe are in a crossroads between major trendlines here.
This forms a triangle pattern on which you can apply fib-time lines to predict a breakout (0.764 fib-time).
I added some interesting levels and other trend lines aswell.
How to trade it:
Depending on what side of the triangle (bottom / top)
the price is closer to while approaching the 0.764 fib-time,
you can start scaling into the respective trade.
For buys you can wait for breaks of:
231 level
yellow trend line / H&S neck line
blue triangle top
log downtrend (red)
260 level
For sells you can wait for breaks of:
apex level 218.33
210 level
200 level / triangle bottom
192 level
Targets are based on projections of the widest distance within the triangle, down / up from the apex.
For the up target the absolute value is used, for the down target the % value.
If you have any questions please leave a comment !
Good Luck ! : ]