Crocs | CROX | Long at $98.00If the overall/long-term upward momentum continues, Crocs NASDAQ:CROX may be nearing bounce territory at $98 as it reaches the bottom of my selected historical simple moving average (SMA). While there may be a near-term downtrend to close out a few price gaps ($80s-$90s) below the current price, the stock looks incredibly poised for an upward move as the Santa Claus rally nears. Fundamentally, a P/E of 7x, low debt, and a low float (56M) with 7% short interest all works in the favor for this stock/company. Thus, at $98, NASDAQ:CROX is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $110
Target #2 = $125
Target #3 = $135
Target #4 = $155 (long-term)
CROX
Crocs’ Stock Drops on Q3 Profit Warning Despite Strong Q2 ReportCrocs Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CROX ) experienced a notable decline in its stock price on Thursday, shedding about 5% despite reporting second-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The footwear giant, renowned for its innovative casual footwear, warned of a potential dip in profits for the upcoming quarter, casting a shadow over its robust Q2 performance.
Q2 Financial Highlights
For the second quarter of 2024, Crocs reported a profit of $228.9 million, or $3.77 per share, up from $212.4 million, or $3.39 per share, in the same period last year. The company’s revenue reached $1.112 billion, marking a 3.6% increase (or 4.8% on a constant currency basis). The growth was primarily driven by a substantial increase in direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenues, which surged 8.9%, and an impressive gross margin of 61.4%, up from 57.9%.
Andrew Rees, CEO of Crocs, highlighted the strength of the Crocs brand, particularly its exceptional international growth. He also mentioned the company's efforts to support the long-term health of the HEYDUDE brand by ramping up marketing efforts in the second half of the year.
Crocs Brand Performance
The Crocs brand reported a 9.7% increase in revenues, totaling $914 million. The growth was seen across various channels and geographies:
- DTC Revenues: Increased by 12.5% to $479 million.
- Wholesale Revenues: Rose by 6.9% to $435 million.
- North America Revenues: Increased by 3.0% to $489 million.
- International Revenues: Saw a significant rise of 18.7% to $425 million.
Financial Outlook and Challenges
Despite the positive Q2 results, Crocs’ guidance for the third quarter of 2024 raised concerns. The company expects:
- Revenues to range from a 1.5% decline to a 0.5% increase compared to Q3 2023.
- Crocs brand revenues to grow by 3% to 5%.
- HEYDUDE brand revenues to decline by 16% to 14%.
- Adjusted operating margin to be approximately 24.5%.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $2.95 and $3.10.
For the full year 2024, Crocs maintained its revenue growth outlook of 3% to 5%, with the Crocs brand expected to grow by 7% to 9% and the HEYDUDE brand anticipated to decline by 10% to 8%. The adjusted operating margin is projected to exceed 25%, with adjusted diluted earnings per share estimated to be between $12.45 and $12.90.
Market Reaction
The market reacted negatively to the profit warning for Third Quarter (Q3), overshadowing the strong Q2 results. The concerns about the sustainability of Crocs’ growth, particularly in the HEYDUDE brand, and the anticipated lower profits for the upcoming quarter, led to the drop in stock price.
From a technical perspective, it is evident that NASDAQ:CROX has undergone a series of falling wedge patterns, each preceded by a bullish reversal pattern. Presently, NASDAQ:CROX is exhibiting a similar pattern, accompanied by a relative strength index of 36.66. Anticipation for Q3 suggests a potential decline in NASDAQ:CROX until it reaches significant support at the $112 level. A breach above the one-month low is likely to signify a bullish reversal for $CROX.
Conclusion
Crocs Inc. continues to demonstrate resilience and growth, particularly with its flagship Crocs brand. However, the profit warning for Q3 has highlighted potential headwinds, especially with the HEYDUDE brand. Investors will be keenly watching how Crocs navigates these challenges and whether it can maintain its positive momentum in the coming quarters.
Crocs, Inc Appoints Susan Healy as EVP & Chief Financial OfficerCrocs, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CROX ) has appointed Susan Healy as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the company, effective June 3. Healy succeeds Anne Mehlman, who was recently appointed President of the Crocs Brand. Mehlman will continue to serve as Chief Financial Officer until Healy's start date. She will join the executive leadership team and report directly to Andrew Rees, CEO.
Healy will have responsibility over financial planning and analysis, accounting, investor relations, tax, internal audit, and corporate development. She joins Crocs from IAA, Inc., a global marketplace for automotive buyers and sellers, where she served as Chief Financial Officer and led the company through its $7 billion merger with Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated. She has over three decades of financial and operational leadership experience. Prior to 2021, she served as Senior Vice President of Finance for Ulta Beauty. Earlier in her career, she held various senior financial leadership roles in addition to a 12-year tenure at Goldman Sachs.
Crocs, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CROX ) reported its fiscal first quarter financial results on May 7, 2024, before the market opened. The company reported an exceptional first quarter, driven by mid-teens growth of the Crocs Brand, driven by robust consumer demand both in North America and in international markets. Andrew Rees, CEO, stated that Crocs delivered an exceptional first quarter, driven by record revenue, industry-leading gross margins, and the power of its diversified business.
In the first quarter of 2024, Crocs Brand ( NASDAQ:CROX ) revenues increased 14.6% to $744 million, or 15.6% on a constant currency basis. Direct-to-consumer revenues grew 11.8% to $282 million, or 19.0% on a constant currency basis. Wholesale revenues increased 12.5% to $462 million, or 13.8% on a constant currency basis.
North America revenues increased 9.0% to $383 million, or 9.0% on a constant currency basis. International revenues increased 21.3% to $361 million, or 23.6% on a constant currency basis. HEYDUDE Brand revenues decreased 17.2% to $195 million.
The company's balance sheet and cash flow for March 31, 2024 compared to March 31, 2023 showed cash and cash equivalents at $159 million, inventories at $392 million, total borrowings at $1,727 million, and capital expenditures at $16 million.
Financial Outlook for the second quarter of 2024 is expected to be up 1% to 3% compared to the same period last year. Crocs Brand revenues are expected to grow 7% to 9% compared to the same period last year. The HEYDUDE Brand is expected to contract (19%) to (17%) compared to the same period last year.
In the full year of 2024, Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) expects revenue growth of 3% to 5% compared to 2023, with revenues for the Crocs Brand growing approximately 7% to 9% and revenues for the HEYDUDE Brand contracting (10%) to (8%). Adjusted operating margins are expected to be around 25%. Non-GAAP adjustments of approximately $28 million related to the implementation of a new enterprise resource planning ("ERP") system for HEYDUDE and costs to transition to the new distribution center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
As of March 31, 2024, Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) had $875 million remaining on its current share repurchase authorization.
Technical Outlook
Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) stock is up 1.89% in Tuesday's Pre-market trading with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 50.17. After the earnings beat, and the appointment of Susan Healy as the EVP & Chief Financial Officer, Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) stock is poised for an upside gap due to the fundamentals.
Gappers are formed in a chart when there is no trading activity but the stock rises in value causing an upside or downside gap as a result of a major event such as an earnings beat and quarterly reports, etc.
Crocs Stock Breaks Out on Strong Earnings and Resilient OutlookCrocs Inc. ( NASDAQ:CROX ) recently stunned investors with its fourth-quarter earnings report, surpassing expectations despite headwinds from the HeyDude brand and broader economic uncertainties. As the company charts a course for continued growth in 2024, let's delve into what's propelling Crocs to new heights and why investors should take notice.
Unveiling Resilience Amid Challenges:
Despite challenges posed by declining HeyDude sales and a sluggish wholesale market, Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) showcased its resilience in the face of adversity. The company reported a 2.6% decline in adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter, beating analyst estimates by a wide margin. Moreover, Crocs' ( NASDAQ:CROX ) GAAP earnings surged a remarkable 89%, signaling robust underlying strength in its business operations.
Key Highlights from the Earnings Report:
Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) reported a revenue increase of 1.6% to $960 million, slightly edging out forecasts despite a slowdown in growth momentum. Notably, direct-to-consumer sales saw a healthy uptick of 6.8%, underscoring the strength of Crocs' brand and its ability to connect directly with consumers. However, wholesale revenues experienced a modest decline of 4.6%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the broader retail landscape.
The Road Ahead:
As Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) looks ahead to 2024, the company remains cautiously optimistic about its growth prospects. Despite forecasting a slight decline in revenue for the first quarter, management maintained its full-year outlook, expecting a 3% to 5% increase in revenue driven primarily by a solid performance from its flagship Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) brand. Additionally, the company anticipates flat to slightly higher sales for the HeyDude brand, signaling a potential turnaround in the coming quarters.
Investor Sentiment and Market Response:
Investors welcomed Crocs' ( NASDAQ:CROX ) stellar performance, sending its stock soaring 8% higher in early trading following the earnings release. With shares poised to break out from their first base in nearly a year, Crocs has positioned itself as a standout performer in a volatile market environment. Despite a minor pullback earlier in the week, Crocs' ( NASDAQ:CROX ) stock has rallied nearly 16% since the beginning of the year, buoyed by strong earnings and optimistic guidance.
Conclusion:
In an era marked by uncertainty and rapid change, Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) has proven to be a steady anchor for investors seeking stability and growth. With a solid earnings report under its belt and a resilient outlook for the year ahead, Crocs ( NASDAQ:CROX ) is primed to continue its upward trajectory. As the company navigates evolving market dynamics and capitalizes on emerging opportunities, investors would be wise to keep a close eye on this footwear giant as it charts its course for success in 2024 and beyond.
CROX Crocs Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold CROX before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CROX Crocs prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 107usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $3.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Crocs (NASDAQ: $CROX) Strides into 2024 with Record Revenues
Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CROX ) is making waves in the footwear industry, with a recent surge of over 20% in its stock value following the announcement of impressive early 2023 results. The company's CEO, Andrew Rees, revealed that 2023 was a robust year for Crocs, marked by a successful holiday season and notable market share gains for both the Crocs and Hey Dude brands.
Record-Breaking Performance in 2023:
Crocs projects a record-breaking revenue of approximately $3.95 billion for the full year 2023, showcasing a remarkable 11% growth compared to the previous year. This exceeds the company's earlier guidance of 10% to 11% growth. The Crocs brand itself achieved a remarkable milestone by surpassing the $3 billion mark, experiencing growth exceeding 13%, while Hey Dude contributed approximately $949 million in revenues.
Financial Strength and Debt Reduction:
A key highlight of Crocs' performance is its strong free-cash flow generation, enabling the company to pay down a substantial $277 million in net debt during the fourth quarter of 2023. The full-year debt paydown amounted to an impressive $665 million. Such financial stability positions Crocs favorably for strategic investments and long-term growth.
2024 Outlook and Strategic Initiatives:
Looking ahead to 2024, Crocs anticipates a continued positive trajectory with revenue growth projected at 3% to 5% compared to 2023. The Crocs brand is expected to drive this growth, with an estimated 4% to 6% increase, while Hey Dude's revenues are projected to remain flat to slightly up.
CEO Andrew Rees emphasized the company's commitment to reinvesting its best-in-class margins into focused strategic investments. Notable initiatives include strong franchise management for the Crocs brand, introducing new products in 2024, including a promising new sandal franchise. Global growth, particularly in Asia, is anticipated, along with the expansion of Hey Dude's omnichannel strategy through the development of its outlet business.
Operational Efficiency and Margin Targets:
Crocs not only exceeded its fourth-quarter revenue expectations but also raised its full-year 2023 non-GAAP operating margin target to in excess of 27%. This reflects the company's operational efficiency and disciplined financial management.
Looking into 2024, Crocs expects further gross margin improvement over 2023, with plans to reinvest these gains into brand accretive and strategic SG&A investments. The result is an anticipated non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 25% for 2024.
Conclusion:
Crocs, Inc. is undoubtedly on a trajectory of success, backed by robust financial performance, debt reduction, and a strategic vision for the future. Investors and footwear enthusiasts alike have reason to be optimistic as Crocs continues to innovate, expand its market presence, and position itself for long-term, durable growth in 2024 and beyond.
CROX - Change in Trend and repeating history?Every time CROX closed above the range with high volume, a uptrend followed.
Will it be the same this time?
Fundamentally, they say, CROX is a steal.
Indeed, if I check the numbers and ratings, it shows me that CROX seem to be a really solid Company.
Although my prior analysis pointed to the Abyss, I now are more interested in a LT buy in CROX.
Let's wait for a high volume close above the range and then take a ride.
Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) Unravel The Hidden Gem(NASDAQ:CROX) Headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado, Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) engages in the footwear and accessories business. Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) stock closed at $96.84 per share. One-month return of Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) was -6.68%, and its shares gained 32.62% of their value over the last 52 weeks. Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) has a market capitalization of $5.97 billion.
Along with Exact Sciences, notable adds in the quarter included Twist Bioscience, Saia and Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX). Crocs designs, develops, manufactures and distributes casual footwear and accessories for men, women and children. The company invented the molded plastic Clog in 2002 and has turned it into a $3 billion global revenue base. We believe expansion opportunities outside the US, demand from new product introductions (including from recently acquired Hey Dude) and distribution pushes within the direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels will drive greater-than-expected revenue growth. Given the company’s small market share, just 1% of the global footwear industry, we believe it has a long runway for growth.
Price Momentum
CROX is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price lower, and the stock still appears to have downward momentum. This is a buy opportunity for prudent investors.
CROX - 75% loss target.This is just for fun and observation, and has absolutely no statistical background, nor any proven "anything" §8-)
So, what do we have here?
1. The pattern.
The expanding pivot pattern is very known in the trading world of the Forkers. Personally I don't use it very often in my trading to carve any decision making facts out of it.
Others I know relay heavily on it.
2.There was 75% drop in the first leg.
My thought is, that because the pattern repeats on the second leg, the drop could also repeat. Same here, no proven facts, just tinfoil.
The only point in this second 75% drop I see is, that it's near the prior low, which could be a target for short sellers.
However, let's just observe it and put our tinfoil on §8-)
Happy Sunday folks.
CROX - CROCS - deeper pullback than expected but ready to run?CROCS is still looking to test the all-time high after this much deeper than expected pullback? Price retraced back about 61.8% which usually indicates that price will begin to find some support and then reverse. Keep an eye on CROCS in the news.
CROX Crocs Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns ofCROX Crocs prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the $120 strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $13.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Crocs - CROX - 50% away from All-Time Highs?Crocs - CROX - 50% away from All-Time Highs? So many people wear these shoes. How many people own the stock? How many people know that the stock is 50% away from all-time highs? If Crocs can maintain price above the 200 day EMA blue 'watermark', we may see more upside. What are your thoughts on Crocs?
CROX - Approaching resistance. Consolidation before going up.CROX is approaching the 144 - 146 resistance zone.
It's possible for it to go for 148-150 but I won't chase it as R/R isn't good enough for me right now.
I'll wait for a small correction that should last more or less one trading day and ideally price needs to be contained by the orange marked zone.
So, I won't touch it until Wednesday at least so I don't get tempted to buy and get chopped around once the consolidation starts.
CROX Stock analysis Stock analysis – CROX
CROX has recently been included in my portfolio due to its impressive fundamental data and strong technical performance throughout the macroeconomic headwinds.
Fundamental picture
In the last 3 years CROX earnings per share (EPS) has surged 117% and sales have climbed 43%. These exciting numbers are backed up with consensus estimates being revised higher each quarter, indicating an upward trajectory. In addition, the Return on Equity value is 113% while the EBITDA margin is sitting at 28%. These values are encouraging as they show the company is very efficient at returning profit from investment in a highly competitive industry. A cautionary note should be added due to the high debt held by CROX, which could become increasingly problematic in a high interest environment. Although this requires monitoring, the high earning power of CROX should allow them to manage their debt load effectively.
Relative strength
A clear sign of an emerging group leader is strong price action in the face of a retreating broader market. The most recent downturn in the broader @Nasdaq and @S&P500 markets has not been reciprocated by CROX. In the previous month the broader markets have dropped approximately 10% while CROX has gained almost 15%. This is signal of institutional accumulation during a time of fear.
Inflection point
The fundamental picture tells you what to buy, whereas the technical picture tells you when to buy.
CROX is in a confirmed uptrend as shown by the traffic light lines in the graph. The green (50-day MA) is above the orange (100-day MA) which in turn in above the red (200-day MA). This trend is backed up by the RSI line operating in the upper half of the (purple) graph. The buy point is indicated by the recent breakout from the consolidation channel at the same time as the bullish MACD cross. This indicates the momentum has shifted from consolidation to accumulation and was the exact point my portfolio started buying.
As always, do your own research and remember that risk management is paramount.
Copy me on Etoro --> Username: JM15931 or Josquin Mills
15 Companies that have organic growth of financial resultsIt is good options to buy when the market is at the bottom (we think it is summer 2023, you can see our macro scenario here )
Type: growth stock
1. Okta – operates in the Identity Management market (identification protocols). It sells its products to individual companies and as part of integration with the other industry leaders (Zscaler). Organic growth is expected due to a low penetration of Identity Management in corporate environment (20% now). The market could reach the value of 70 bln, according to McKinsey. We anticipate revenue to expand by ~30% over the next few years.
Downside: 1) The company regularly dilutes equity to finance R&D and marketing.
Upside 1) Has a positive EBITDA margin, will have a positive FCF as soon as 2024.
2. Twilio – operates in the CPaaS market. The valuation already reflects negative expectations from the slowdown of the CPaaS market amid shrinking advertising budgets (weak consumer). We expect revenue to expand by 25%+ over the next few years, which is also reflected in the company’s long-term valuation.
Downside: 1) The company regularly dilutes equity to finance R&D and marketing. The emergence of various solutions in the market that are powered by GPT-3 (a neural network), which generates human-like responses based on the learning of the target audience. These solutions are less costly for companies; however, major companies aren’t bent on integrating it just yet. I believe that Twilio could integrate it in its own product, as GPT-3 has an open source code.
Upside 1) Has a positive EBITDA margin, will have a positive FCF as soon as 2024.
3. Zscaler. The company operates in the narrowly specialized SSE market. Industry leader. Organic growth is expected due to the current low penetration in corporate solutions (around 3%). We anticipate the company will practically double its cash flow every year over the next 2 years + it’s profitable
4. Paypal. In the third quarter PayPal demonstrated again that the company’s strategy is bearing fruit even as the global economy is slowing down.
The multipronged development of PayPal’s services remains key for its organic growth. What used to be a fairly narrow-focused service to pay for goods and services is adding ever more new functions: PayPal continues to cooperate with Apple and is expanding the opportunities for contactless payment, while also working to increase engagement with the audience through the Braintree payment system. Therefore, even in the middle of an unfavorable macroeconomic environment and faced with declining consumption in the cyclical sectors, the company is seizing ever more market share.
Upside: the management plans to boost operating margin by about 100 bps next year by developing infrastructure and reducing transaction costs.
5. Tesla. Tesla publishes fairly strong reports: Revenue and operating profit grow by 50-60% y/y. unlike other players, Tesla also improves its business margins.
When China ends lockdowns, the issue of downtime at Tesla’s Chinese plant, its largest, will go away. Also, as soon as this quarter (the fourth quarter) Tesla will share access to its FSD and release it to the mass market.
In general, the company is feeling well. Its stock price has fallen ahead of the market amid Musk’s purchase of Twitter and the current perturbations at Twitter. Also. Musk sold some of his Tesla shares to fund the purchase of Twitter. Musk’s current share is ~13%.
Type: cyclical stocks
1. Livent. The company is moving ahead in line with our forecast. The company has several growth projects that start as soon as 1Q 2023, and also in 4Q 2023. They will add 100% of lithium carbonate production. Lithium prices, give or take, are set to remain near their current levels as demand from the EV industry continues to be strong (even as consumption is low, the market cannibalizes ICE models).
Downside: 1) Poor reporting on sales volumes. Chemicals prices continue to hold high. If lithium prices turn around, that will erase the margin.
Upside: 1) The company operates with a high gross margin. Its costs are $7,000 per 1 ton of production while the price now is about 80,000 a ton.
2. Darling. The company has piled up a lot of cash on the balance sheet. It now uses it for strategic precision purchases, which fuel its growth. + 30% of EBITDA comes from DGD, the growth of operating metrics will largely happen in 2023, so by 2024 operating metrics will rise by 50%. The stock took a lot of hammering as Biden seeks to revise the 17-year-old EPA and shift the program toward biogases. EBITDA will get a strong boost due to declining agricultural commodities prices.
Downside: 1) Margin is tamped down because of the acquisition spending (temporary impact) + agricultural commodities prices could hold above our expectations, which means EBITDA wouldn’t get as much of a boost
Upside 1) core business is stable
3. Crocs. the company grows fast in terms of operating metrics (physical shipments of footwear of its own brand and HeyDude), and has been able to switch to air freight delivery, which has been immediately reflected in EBITDA, as was expected. Crocs is now laser focused to consolidate the Asian rubber footwear market, as it regards it as the main and priority market.
Downside: 1) High debt, which was taken out to buy HeyDude. However, they are paying it back as they are successfully integrating HeyDude in its organic structure.
Upside 1) They are able to pass a high share of costs on to the consumer (high gross margin). The average selling price of footwear is $25, while production costs are $10. The brand name is actively working for the company, advertising costs aren’t rising too much (the collaboration with stars that have audiences of millions of people does its part + go on advertising: let’s say, when you see a celebrity wearing Crocs out in the street, rather than on your phone screen, you want them, too.
4. Pinterest. In the third quarter Pinterest showed a net increase of monthly active users for the first time this year. It totaled 445 million people: 95 mln in the US and Canada and 350 mln in other regions.
Although the digital advertising market has taken a heavy blow in 2022 as economy slowed down and advertising budgets were downsized, Pinterest continues to show a stable growth of average revenue per user: The total ARPU reached $1.54 (+8.16% y/y) in 3Q, compared with our forecast for $1.59.
5. Ulta. As of now, organic growth is possible only through opening mini outlets at Target stores. The beauty industry, including Ulta, isn’t falling that much as the company/industry get the bulk of their revenue from beauty enthusiasts (who use cosmetics no matter what, even expensive ones). + the company continues to show a high pace of LFL sales growth due to foot traffic and the average ticket. For two straight quarters now, the company has beaten analyst expectations, but not ours for EPS, due to an increased efficiency of inventory accounting/arrangement of products per 1 square meter (essentially, every inch is used for commercial purposes).
6. Netflix. The business is essentially mature. What could breathe life into it is a strategy to acquire users in low-income markets + add-supported subscription.
7. Transocean. For a few straight quarters now, RIG has showed it’s getting new contracts, including long-term ones, at elevated prices. As long as the trend continues, we expect the company’s gross margin to expand because RIG, when it concludes contracts, includes the future growth of costs in the contract value. All the contracts have fixed revenue, rather than adjustable one, so that’s why. With oil price at $70+ and given underinvestment in the industry, RIG is sure to have demand for its ships.
Type: Chinese, Taiwanese stocks
1. TSMC. TSMC shows a stable growth of financial results and growing business margins. TSMC, in effect, has a monopolistic position in the market, with major companies in the US and China relying on its products.
If China seeks to maintain economic growth and improve the well-being of its citizens, then most likely nothing will happen to Taiwan before 2024 (the year of presidential elections in Taiwan). Therefore, 2023 will be a year of continued growth for TSMC, even amid a global recession.
2. Li Auto. Li Auto shares have been dumped amid the decline of its gross margin as demand skewed toward the more expensive EV. That’s the most expensive EV made in China and the strong demand for it demonstrates that the company’s revenue will continue to rise.
Li Auto is in the middle of an investment phase now, being busy boosting its R&D in EV software and various components in order to achieve a greater vertical integration. The company continues to expand in terms of capacity, dealerships, and invest in its autopilot.
The company holds substantial promise, just like Tesla. What’s more, Li Auto is on the party list as the third-largest EV producer.
3. Baidu. If China relaxes its lockdowns, Baidu’s core business – advertising – will gain pace, with revenue and operating revenue getting a boost. Baidu actively invests in its proprietary systems for AI-powered driving and digitalization of industrial businesses and state-owned companies. In 2024 Baidu is set to start manufacturing EVs jointly with Jidu.
$CROX - 2Year Outlook - It's a buyLet me start off saying that i hate Crocs and i will never own a pair, but i recognize that other people like them and in a way Crocs can be considered the new age Sandal.
The Juice
I'm no expert at any of this, but even i can see that Crox is undervalued by A LOT. Their recent acquisition of HEYDUDE shoes that costed them 2B in debt is what seems to have attracted plenty of small time sharks like Loop Capital that are known for telling investors to sell their GameStop shares as it was supposedly worth $10 and quoting Anthony Chukumba from Loop Capital on CNBC: "Sell now, think later".
Needless to say, yes, a little debt has attracted wallstreets' ugly side to this company. Sharks see debt, they see an opportunity for busting a company out on the long term by spreading lies and short and distort tactics like slashing $CROX stock price from $180 to a $80 recently. All that just for a little debt that'll be paid off in 2 years since $CROX is extremely profitable (35% profit margin) and can easily handle this debt (and they know it, hence why they even did this acquisition).
Multiple insiders have actually bought $CROX stock in April (about 4 of them) all around the price of $76 indicating that even they think this is a dip. The last time insiders bought their own dip was in 2020 March when Corona hit and all stocks dived. This shows that the $CROX insiders are "trading savvy" bastards. The insiders buying wasn't just a disposal/exercise/tax thing either, it was pure code "P" purchases and i re-iterate that multiple insiders bought the stock.
The signals
The 5 year MACD & RSI indicate that the ~70 ish area is a good buy and the stock's fundamentals more than support this idea. What doesn't support this is Loop Capital coming out batting with their $80 PT indicating that they have more in store for $CROX short and distory until the HEYDUDE acqquisition goes through.
I consider Loop Capital to be a scum tier hedgefund. They aren't even predators, they are scavengers. My hopes are that they are here only for the short term gains to be made by using $CROX 2Bn acquisition debt as the excuse, maybe they'll use other tactics, but in the end $CROX is not just a profitable company, but an extremely profitable company.
No one is paying attention to $CROX because it's ugly rubber molded shoes, and that's why i'm long at $70 and i'm continuing to build my position. Somehow, $CROX is a thing and they make money, it's ridiculous, but if i sit and think about it, i can kinda understand it... there are people out there (more than i'd think...) that wear this in my opinion trash... and that's it... people wear Crocs. I made fun of Crocs as being a bit of a "meh" thing to wear to a Russian colleague and he thought Crocs were ok, i guess there's lots of people out there like him...
Other info
There are no other signals that i'm aware of, there is no squeeze, no high SI, no hidden shorts, nothing too weird going on here. The only funky thing about this is that $CROX had a big dump from November 22 2022 until recently and that dump is the same dump the entire retail sector & retail ETFs have felt. You'll see the same dump on almost all of retail except bigger stocks like Jeff Amazon's stock. Even GME had the same dump as well as XRT and many many others.
I'd love to believe that this is a sector-wide short so that big boys can buy in on retail at low prices before what might be the next retail sector mega pump since supposedly Covid19 is suddenly "over". A big irrational short before buying in is something i've seen happen a few times on single stocks, but never sector-wide.
Again, this is another one of the many reasons i've bought in on $CROX at $70 and consider it a long term play (2-4 years). I'm secured for another dump in case Loop Capital and other scavengers try to spread fake news about the company or try to change sentiment. At the same time i've sold a few puts in the money, at the money and out of the money because i'm extremely bullish for CROX long term and think anyone betting against it is going to get burned.
I don't believe there's more downside to $CROX beyond what could be caused by another market correction. The insiders believe $76 is a strong buy and they've never been wrong, so yeah... get on the rubber shoes bandwagon today...