Potential reversal of BitcoinBefore starting an another bitcoin prediction i want to make it clear, I have been long from 19k level and bought some altcoins as well like Theta, Chainlink and Avax, I am okay if btc does another leg down. I have only invested small portion of profit which i did last May 2021.
BTC is either collecting orders at support level or taking a break for another leg down. However my estimation is bull up for upcoming reasons
Fear and Greed Index, Whenever Fear is lower than 15, it is a good time to go long, whenever greed is higher than 80, prepare to drop your bags)
20k zone, This zone was a peak of 2017 bullrun and so many investors are either going for BE or adding to their position.
BTC is making HL, each pullback is leaving higher HL on the chart, this means BTC can go parabolic on potential bull run.
Despite of high FED interest and high inflation, markets did not give up as much as Covid panic, this makes me thing that maybe BTC is outperfom rest of the indices.
Wish you all the best luck guys.
Risk management if we break 26k i will bring my SL to BE which is about 19k, same goes for my altcoins as well.
Good luck
Crpyto
Trading should be dealt with by trading strategy, not analysis.hello?
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(USDT + USDC 1W chart)
In the investment market, we believe that analysis data is what allows individual investors to make subjective guesses.
Among these analysis data, I think that the data analyzed based on global economic analysis and global issues are even more so.
Therefore, when viewing analysis data based on global economic analysis and global issues, it is recommended to check after making your own trading strategy.
It is a warehouse where funds flow into and out of the coin market, and it can be seen that this is done through stable coins.
Therefore, in order for the coin market to show an upward trend, a rise in USDT or USDC must be preceded.
In order to make a profit in the investment market, it is not to buy or sell based on this analysis.
A trading strategy must be established in order to earn a profit in the investment market.
Without the trading strategy itself, profits are just luck, and the more you trade, the more you will turn into losses.
If you are not familiar with trading in the investment market, that is, the coin market or the stock market, we recommend that you do not read articles analyzed on global economic analysis, world issues, etc.
It is only necessary to practice developing your own trading strategy with the flow of the chart.
If you can establish a trading strategy, you will no longer see analysis articles such as global economic analysis and global issues.
Trading strategies can be divided into three broad categories.
1. Investment period
2. Investment scale
3. How to trade
1. Investment period
In order to determine the investment period, a number of factors are taken into consideration.
Among them, it is important to check which coin ecosystem you belong to and whether the ecosystem is expanding.
If you can't verify this, you should proceed with a short trade as a short trade.
If you don't have enough time in a day to look at charts and trade, we recommend investing in coins (tokens) with high market capitalization.
It is not recommended to change the investment period as you proceed with the trade, as the trade itself is likely to be twisted.
In other words, you bought it as a short-term trade, but you cannot sell it at the Stop Loss point and should not hold it for a long period of time because the price has fallen and turned into a loss.
If you initially set up your trading strategy with short trades, it is always a good idea to close your trades with short trades.
This will increase your chances of successfully closing the next trade you start.
This is because this phenomenon greatly affects the transaction depending on the psychological state.
The investment period can be extended if the price is rising and you are making a profit.
However, it is important to take profits in the section section by split selling.
2. Investment scale
The size of the investment should be dealt with in consideration of how you will manage your total investment.
For example, I started to buy in order to make an investment in the medium to long term.
At this time, if you use all your funds to buy and run out of cash, psychological anxiety increases as the investment period increases, increasing the likelihood of closing the trade before the full-fledged uptrend begins.
Therefore, the management of funds is essential to proceed with the transaction.
3. Transaction method
One thing to consider in your trading method is to create a trading strategy that will reduce your losses.
To do so, a Stop Loss point is essential.
At this Stop Loss point, you have to decide whether to sell 100% or partially sell to utilize your funds.
When you are recording a loss, changing the Stop Loss point should be oriented.
This is because it is more likely that the investment period will change among the trading strategies established before you start trading.
You need to decide the number of divisions and the number of divisions, and think of a stop loss point and method suitable for it.
The reason for the split purchase is to lower the average purchase price, so you should not buy according to the price just because the price rises.
So, you should make an effort to look at the chart and see if there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points.
Whether you are supported or resisted at support and resistance points is a know-how that can only be acquired through many trades, so it can only be achieved with steady effort.
Among the trading methods, another question to consider is whether to obtain cash income or increase the number of coins (tokens).
Cash returns are best obtained by trading short-term spot or perpetual futures whenever possible.
As a trading method to increase the number of coins (tokens), if the price rises for each purchase unit price, 1. Selling according to the yield such as 10% or 20%, 2. Split selling at support and resistance points.
When selling, it is recommended to sell in installments with the purchase principal (+ transaction fee x2 to x20 included).
This will increase the number of coins (tokens) along with some cash income.
The increase in the number of coins (tokens) varies according to the size of your funds, the amount you purchase, and the number of transactions.
This method is especially effective when used in a downtrend.
If all of the purchase principal is recovered in this way, the remaining coins (tokens) are coins (tokens) corresponding to net profit, so the purchase price is 0.
If you increase the number of coins (tokens) with a purchase unit price of 0 in this way, you can maintain psychological stability even after many transactions, making trading enjoyable.
When trading short-term spot or perpetual futures to earn cash returns, you should invest in a primary position and a secondary position separately.
Spot short-term trades are not available on this chart because you cannot trade "SHORT".
You can buy by referring to the MRHAB-T index, the Long/Short-S index, and the CCI-C index.
In perpetual futures trading, set the main position to 'LONG' and trade when the 1D chart is on an upward trend or on an upward candlestick.
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1. Check whether it is supported or resisted by the HA-Low, HA-High, and MACD-T indicators,
2. In the Long/Short-S indicator, check whether the RSI indicator and the Stoch RSI indicator are in the overbought or oversold section,
3. On the CCI-C indicator, you should check whether the CCI line is maintaining an uptrend or a downtrend at the -100, 0, +100 points or the EMA line.
Based on this verified information, you can create a trading strategy.
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(USDT.D 1M Chart)
The reason we look at the USDT dominance chart is that it is a stablecoin with a high market cap ranking.
When funds flow into the coin market through USDT, the USDT dominance also rises.
Therefore, the USDT, USDC, USDT.D, and USDC.D charts show an overall upward trend.
This is a prerequisite.
If the USDT, USDC, USDT.D, and USDC.D charts show a downtrend, the coin market will panic and a huge downtrend will follow.
However, USDT Dominance and USDC Dominance may show a short-term decline as funds are used for trading in the coin market.
This short-term downtrend will be a bull market for the coin market.
From this point of view, USDT dominance should fall below the 4.97-5.53 range, which will increase the likelihood that the coin market will start a bull market.
(1W chart)
So, the key is whether it can move below the 4.97-5.53 section along the downtrend line.
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(BTC.D 1W Chart)
BTC Dominance does not see any involvement in the rise or fall of BTC price.
As BTC dominance rises or falls, I think it is the basis for determining whether funds are concentrated on the BTC side or the altcoin side.
Therefore, it is not possible to understand the flow of funds only with the BTC Dominance Chart.
However, if the BTC dominance drops below the 39.56-40.44 range, the possibility of large volatility in the BTC price increases.
Judging from the previous chart's movement, I would expect the price of BTC to drop sharply.
However, since the movements of the USDT, USDC, USDT.D, USDC.D, BTC, and ETH charts are showing movements that have not been experienced before, it is difficult to predict in which direction the volatility will actually occur.
Therefore, rather than proceeding with the overall trend of the coin market, it is recommended to proceed with the transaction according to the trading strategy of the coin you are trading.
When establishing a trading strategy for the coin you want to trade, if you create a trading strategy in consideration of the overall flow of the coin market, you can create a wrong trading strategy, so you should try to create an individual trading strategy.
With the trading strategy created in this way, you will be able to complete the transaction stably by making small changes according to the overall trend of the coin market and proceeding with the transaction.
Before looking at individual coin charts, I think that by looking at these charts that give you a brief overview of the flow of money, you can make your trading strategy easier.
This flow of money precedes all the material in the media.
Please don't focus on how far the price will rise or how far down.
Such thoughts only hinder the subjective judgment of one's own psychological state in establishing a trading strategy.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee a profit or loss in investment.
** The MRHAB-T indicator, which is inactive on the chart, contains indicators that indicate support and resistance points.
** Background color of Long/Short-S indicator: RSI oversold and overbought sections
** Background color of CCI-C indicator: When the short-term CCI line is below -100 and above +100, oversold and overbought sections are displayed.
** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator disclosed by oh92. (Thanks for this.)
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit and loss can be preserved or additional entry through split trading. It is a short-term investment perspective.)
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Money Flow Index Weekly DivergenceThe money flow index is an amazing tool to spot divergence on higher time frames doesn't work that well on lower.
On the weekly time frame with the close of the candle on the 27th of December 2021 we have confirmed bullish divergence. Just take a look at the chart and see all the massive moves that follow when weekly divergence on the money flow plays out.
Remember this is a weekly chart on Heikin Ashi ,momentum can take time to move.
The bear is back with a vengance A misconception I hear a lot is BTC sees a smaller % pull down after each bull run as the market matures. When looking at the 3 day line chart that is not the case. We actually see greater drawdowns. BTC has had a macro double top this bull run and has some heavy bearish divergence on the RSI. I mean HEAVY. Will be painfully obvious in hindsight. Besides that we have a lot of CME gaps that have yet to be filled. Those go down as low as $6k. If the current trend continues we can see a shocking pullback to that level. Each time the bull market trendline breaks we dump. Currently we are sitting right on top of it. Given how the stock market looks right now It is not unplausible. I don't want to see it happen nor am I short but the TA is there if you take your hopes and dreams out of it and look at this objectively. Will be interesting to see how the alts handle this dump. If they dump less than BTC (which doesn't happen often) then we could see the ponzi pump the alts and give an alt season as a lot of the Alt/BTC trading pairs are due. For the alt market to pump as hard as it does the money has to come from somewhere and I think its from BTC. Tell me what you think.
XRPUSD BEAR RALLY CONTINUESLast week was very emotional, many that got in late last week, price reversed on them just to give us another Bearish signal, if you are selling, stay blessed, Moon Boys can watch their accounts in Red.. we are Stuck in profit.
Altseason 100% started!Altseason has definitely STARTED! My btc.d idea is processing correct, my usdt.d idea is processing correct and now this pattern broke up and is ready to make total 2 and 3 fly up to the sky! a falling wedge in total2 has been broken and the target is the top of the falling wedge which is 1.7 trillion. Ofcourse in my opinion its gonna go higher this time and make altseason more epic! this idea is linked with my btc.d and usdt.d idea if you haven't read them please do below! Altseason is right now happening! Buy more alts quickly!!!!
#btcstarburst The Bull is on!!Follow up!! As the map is playing out. The blue territory is going to suggest a cool off time for BTC. Maybe? If we can get across the red river of death, we have a smaller part to cross. Typical we spike up in it but we never hold support over it… There is a first for everything. The purple broken lines can be made in parallel up and down the chart, these are channels that would be assumed in time frames on every level. IF we have another major fall in MAY… July should be the month for All time high… BUT THIS IS A STUDY>>>>>>> into GANN. The lines show the Support And Resistances 33k in MAY could come again before 100K in JULY… DCA Safely. Laser eyes needed
Bitcoin long term analysisI'm thinkin if its not September pump. it will 100% in August. Tis' what i'm thinking just from a TA stand point. + i don't think the Russian and Ukraine war isn't all bad for the markets, you can see previous charts even on the stock market where the markets take a small dip then raise back up from War and Invasions. + again Russia has to use something as payment to transact out of Russia, they won't be using gold because the country needs it to stay alive, they won't be using the Russian Rubble because who wants that lmao. And their assets outside of Russia has been banned etc, and banned from swift. so yeah. what else will Putin use? Paypal? lmao. You guessed it! Crypto!
Its also a thing Ukraine can do, let's be honest here. I don't think a Ukrainian with a brain will be buying up gold because people at borders can take advantage and say ''Hey! ima need half of that or no go'' and they'd lose half. Meaning it's better for them to use crypto because it gives them 100% full control and security.
UNI/USD Swing Trade BuySupport at 10.31 was previously strongly held on the Daily time frame and was lost upon the initial market reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Upon news that Russians are finding means of avoiding the sanctions through cryptocurrency, price action surged and is aiming to reclaim this level of support in addition to the Daily 20 EMA and flip trend resistance into support (both of which it had previously rejected twice). If successful, this would be an ideal R/S flip and generally a solid area to enter a position, also considering that the Daily 20 EMA and Trend Line support meet for confluence.
Weary of the .618 fib level (drawn from the short-term High: 12.94 and Low: 7.5), this would also have to be reclaimed to further establish a bullish perspective and can generally also be a more conservative level of entry. Alternatively, there is the potential for a rejection from this level. In saying this however, the bullish divergence on the RSI indicator could indicate underlying buying-pressure which could be the volume needed to reclaim this level and head towards the 50 EMA , which had been rejected 3x previously as depicted in the chart, so a close above the 50 EMA would be required to breeze through free-air until heavy resistance in the zone around 14.10. Alternatively, price can reject off the 50 EMA and retest the .618 fib level.
A remaining wick down to 9.51 still lingers in the background and also falls in line with the .382 fib ratio. So with sustaining a risk/reward ratio of 5.6, a stop loss at 9.32 should suffice for any wicks down to wipe out traders or retest trend line support.
A fundamental catalyst to a coin such as UniSwap specifically could be fuelled by the requests from the Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister to Crypto exchanges Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase to block and freeze all Russian crypto exchange accounts. Although they refused, cryptocurrency is a market of speculation, and the fact that the availability of 'decentralised finance' has the potential to be cherry-picked to different countries by centralised exchanges, could call for a stronger attraction to and reiteration for the need of Decentralised Exchanges such as Uniswap to be utilised for the motive of DeFi. Among others such as Pancakeswap, Sushiswap, and Curve, Uniswap is one of the most popular decentralised exchanges in the crypto atmosphere.
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Bear Market RoadmapThe bear market has been underway for a while now ever since the top in April 12th 2021 I believe we have been in a bear market and in a distribution phase, even though we did make a higher high later on the year I still have come to the conclusion that we are indeed in a bear market.
The TA i posted a while back “The satoshi Prophecy” while still not technically invailded because in that TA my thesis is that May 2022 is the top for the cycle based on a Fibannaci time sequence of Chain Link, I still think it will eventually it will be invalided coming May 2022 as not the cycle top but as the bottom of the bear market ,you can check that out below.
As soon as we lost the 8/1 Gann on Bitcoin I new things were about to get rocky but I still pushed and thought we were in a bull market because I kept finding things that backed my May 2022 cycle top case for example I posted the blue fibonacci log theory which you can check below .
Weeks later we would break the blue fib log after that there was no case for the bulls anymore , historically breaking the blue fibonacci log confirms a bear market.
In reality breaking the 8/1 Gann and not holding as support should have been the line but I was so focused on the Chain Link Fibonacci count that I did not see things coming, check out below on how we broke support the week of new year.
Normally to trigger a Bull market or continue an uptrend we hold 8/1 as support and break higher like below in 2020.
So what comes next, well looking at the golden multiplier trend lines we can see whenever Bitcoin follows below the last orange line we enter a bear market , right now we have been under it for a while now.
Once below Bitcoin normally bottoms on an average of about 120days and breaks above the orange line in an average of 270 days which would put us in September to break out and amazingly May 2022 for a bottom , amazing that it lines up with May 2022 So what can we expect is a retest of the orange line at one point that ends up in a failed rally happens every time in history in a bear market
2011
2015
2018
Present Day
Showing a possible outcome for this year 2022
So now we come to the most important piece of evidence that we are in a bear market and that would be the June 2018 bear market fractal that has played out 1:1 almost perfectly .
Present Day with June 2018 Fractal
June 2018 pattern
Also cover this in the TA below
It is a mirror pattern , mind blowing stuff and during June 2018 we also had a MACD bearish cross on the monthly which has happened now as well!
So if the June 2018 bear market fractal plays out we retest 33k and create a double bottom sometime in the next 10days maybe and then have a rally to the orange line we talked about before which more or less lines with the 0.618 you can see that in the main chart above . There is this 3/1 Gann which I have been following for a while that Bitcoin can’t seem to break take a look at the TA below .
I believe Bitcoin will most likely fail to break this gann line until we form that double bottom and finally to finish off volume , we had no capitulation volume come in , every time we have a major bottom or top there is a huge spike in volume.
So how I think 2022 plays out
1- Revisit 33k form double bottom
2- Rally to 0.618 or orange line(Golden Multiplier) anywhere from 45k-56k to Mid-late March 2022
3-Get nuked down into May maybe capitulation wick down to 25/27k before closing at 30k
4- Come out of Bear market September 2022
5-Cycle Top June 2023
XLM To New HighsHere is a beautiful swing trade opportunity with multiple confluences on XLMUSD.
After stop hunting equal lows on the daily, we can see smart money accumulating orders for a few days and impulsively breaking the range, indicating that they are ready to go long again.
This morning they returned to there accumulation to mitigate orders before going long.
My target is new uncharted territory and the old daily highs, with the ISO20022 protocol, as well as the future of crypto as a whole, this is realistic in my opinion.
You can find reentries based on institutional concepts.
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Bitcoin Break Inbound? Bitcoin - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 39978 (stop at 40555)
Daily signals are bearish. A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum. There is no indication that the selloff is coming to an end. Trading close to the psychological 40000 level.
Our profit targets will be 38303 and 37404
Resistance: 41000 / 42000 / 43000
Support: 40000 / 39000 / 38000
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XRPUSD / AT MAJOR SUPPORTXRP has dumped back to its major support level - It might liquidate a number of buyers before taking its next big move up (or down)
I would wait for the daily highs to be broken and retested before jumping in for a buy
There is a weekly doji that has formed which indicates an indecision - This is a strong possibility for a buy setup but may also be a fakey candle - lets wait for price action to show us whats happening
BTCUSDT ANALYSIS#BTCDAILY 22.01.22
Its not all bad news, its mainly bad news but its not all bad news. Here's some positive things I've noticed today;
Technicals
Sure its been referenced in the chat and noticed by most of you but the RSI is popping at what I can only describe as Super Oversold. Hard to get excited I know but the last time we went under 20 on the RSI (March 12th 2020) we bounced 25% in 4 days.
OnChain
Total supply in profit held by short-term holders-
This is an indicator which divides the total supply of BTC by two measures;
1) The difference between current and paid price i.e a positive measure is a profit, negative a loss.
2) The type of owner long or short term. 155 days + is a Long Term Holder (LTH), less a Short Term Holder (STH).
Currently almost 99% of STH are in loss. Traditionally this has been an indicator a short term bottom in the BTC price and preceds strong upward moves.
Spent Output Profit Ratio-
This is a ratio between BTC realised value (the price it was sold at basically) and the value at the time purchased. It gives us an estimate of whether most market participants are selling their BTC at a profit (value over 1) or at a loss (value below 1).
The SOPR for short-term holders again looks at positions <155 days.
From the chart (I'll drop these in as images below as Telegram is limited in sending pics in text) we can see similarity between the summer and today.
The black arrows are showing a bullish divergence between the SOPR (for short term holders) and the falling BTC price (the black line on the chart).
If the similarities are maintained then we should see a strong rebound as we saw in the summer.
Fundamentals
Not likely to be good over the next few days. Mainstream media will be bathing in this 'Bloodbath' and every dickhead with the inability to understand new ideas will be 'told you so'ing' on every platform available, so, you know enjoy that 🤣
Critical Moment of Ethereum! Hello All!
As you can see we are still holding onto the channel. We are at a critical moment with Ethereum & Bitcoin as they consolidate near our important zones. A breakdown from these support levels would indicate to re-test our previous support zones. If we hold we will push towards all-time highs.
Short Trade Setup:
A break and close under 3600 and retesting the support as a new resistance along with similar price action from Bitcoin we can expect lower moves. Most likely these moves will be followed by fast price action so for traders it is important to set your alerts.
Long Trade Setup:
If we hold this support zone and have a strong move in the bitcoin price, I will be looking to buy along support and again if we break and close above the minor resistance forming. We will then most likely see $5,000 Ethereum.
What happens Next? (Version 2)Is the Bitcoin price boring you?
It seems like nothing is happening with Bitcoin just boring sidways movement , or is it possible we are setting up for a launchpad to 100k. The October 2020 breakout took Bitcoin 48 days to regain 12500 dollars from where it dropped. At the moment its only been 29days where will price be on the 48th day? will the pattern repeat? , I will link below same idea with a line chart instead of bar chart.
Money Flow Index Flashes Rare SignalThis is the 5D timeframe on Helkin Ashi.
It seems that the Money flow index has flashed a very rare oversold signal now these green and red circles should not be used for trading as the creator of the indicator explains but we can have a look past to see what happened when these signals flashed in the extreme oversold zone.
So the green circles in the oversold area have only flashes 5 times in Bitcoins history, a very rare occurrence.
These are 5D candles so the dates below are the starting dates of the candles.
18th October 2011
08th September 2014
15th July 2018
15th July 2021
27 December 2021
So just because this signal flashes in the oversold area doesn't exactly mean we going up , 08th September 2014 and 15th July 2018 we went down and 18th October 2011 and 15th July 2021 we went up so right now it's a 50/50.
So even it failed to call the bottom every time all these signals had an impulse move to the upside except 08th September 2014 .
So now it brings me to the most interesting find which gives yet us another clue into the future . Whenever price comes down into this oversold area we always form some sort of bullish divergence that triggers massive moves to the upside and right now we could be doing just that repeating a divergence fractal from 15th July 2018/Dec 2018 and 15th July 2021/27 dec 2021 , if you notice both hit the oversold area at 20 then about 150 days later hit a lower low, this could be in fact the same divergence playing out , on sunday we will get a better picture once the candle closes.
Also at this very moment we are printing what seems to be a heikin reversal candle. Check out the picture below.
Check out TA's below to see where the market could top for 2022