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Crude oil (CRUD) ETC take profitDifficult period, the market in January retraced from the highs of a decided 11%, after the end of the year had not been so excellent in terms of "Christmas rally". In these drawdown periods, in addition to cutting losses, accumulating on long-term portfolios, we must try to take home the profits where the market has overperformed. In my case, oil gave me a + 100% price gain. The instrument is an ETC which tracks the price of the CL futures! of which I have already written and it is the CRUD. We are on almost 2-year highs, $ 86 per barrel, and US inventories are above expectations; In my opinion, there will be interventions at the international level to rebalance inflation which, in large part, is due precisely to the insane increase in raw materials. So I sold, with a 100% gain on my position, since I have a very low purchase price. For all the reasons I have described and also due to the fact that the market is clearly discounting the news of interest rates, it is, therefore, possible a decrease even fractionated until March-April, so in my opinion , it is very important to have the liquidity to invest when there will be the recovery. Happy trading Lazy Bull DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
MIL:CRUD
by LazyBull5
Crude Oil take profitThe rise in oil seems to never end, all estimates are up, the target is $ 100 a barrel for authoritative institutional sources. I have "surfed" the trend from the terrible COVID collapse to today, where I believe it is appropriate to take profit, leaving as always a small part in the portfolio, considering the fantastic average purchase price. Analyzing the seasonal chart, we see that oil has historically been in a bearish phase that runs from October to January, in total contrast with the S&P 500 which does the exact opposite. This is due to a thousand factors that I am not here to report, to avoid writing 5 pages of analysis. October 2021 is clearly the classic exception, for events that we all know, first among OPEC that does not intend to give in to the demand for higher production. The situation could continue up to the famous $ 100 a barrel but from experience, I know that the market always anticipates. Then analyzing the futures chart, we can clearly see how extensive the bullish phase is, the result of a historical rebound, which had brought the price even negative. The price, since its last return to the 200 average on August 20, has reached the 1.414 Fibonacci level. A pull-back at least in the $ 76 zone appears very likely in my opinion. For this reason, as well as for having reached 100% profit, I decided to take home part of the profit, keeping a percentage in the portfolio with an average purchase price of € 3.39 (ETC Crude Oil "CRUD" which replicates the performance of the futures, without the leverage effect). For the future, I will evaluate income only and only after the inevitable reversal that sooner or later will happen. Obviously, I will keep all my readers updated ... Happy trading Lazy Bull
NYMEX:CL1!
by LazyBull5
Crude Oil (CRUD) UpdatesQuick update on crud oil (the investment is on the "CRUD" ETC as you well know). No fundamental news from OPEC, so let's analyze the chart, because we have reached an important point. After the retracement practically lasted from 6 to 20 July, the price with a classic "V shape" is returning to the 5.80 area. I highlighted a similar situation in the past when in May, after some profit-taking, there was a double top in the € 5 zone. It is not certain but it is highly probable that such a situation will repeat itself when the price touches the previously mentioned level. As far as I am concerned, I have already said that I consider the level of 8 € the real target, but obviously, we are talking about a raw material, very linked to what is happening in the world, in a moment of recovery, but recently threatened by the Delta variant. of the virus. A very uncertain picture and the markets generally don't like uncertainty. We must constantly follow the news and check that the price does not fall below the level of 5. 05 that I recently traced. In fact, this could mean a trend reversal and for many who may have an entry price close to that level (possible since it was a breaking point of an important resistance). a risk of a possible loss. But by far, August 1st, the price has returned to the uptrend channel clearly visible on the chart, which I have drawn. This we know. In an ideal scenario, there should be a strong break with a daily candle closing above 5.80. If accompanied by volumes it would be a clear signal of continuation of the trend. In the event of a retracement, for those who have been investing for a long time, the most interesting levels to add positions are 4.577 (green line on the chart) and the SMA 200 moving average. I remember that we are talking about a commodity, so the scenarios could change radically at a fundamental level, so if you were long, follow the economic calendar, the trend of the dollar, and the seasonality very carefully. however importance. Lazy Bull
MIL:CRUDLong
by LazyBull5
WTI Crude - Quick Backtest Bounce, then Short.I've entered a small long here, off the support above $52. This support goes back a long way, look at it on the weekly. I'm targeting the retest of the pink up channel we just broke, or the blue horizontal channel. Longer term though, I think oil looks extended, and I don't think supply is set to fall much. So I'd be interested to look for a short position right where this long ends. Looking for a good reversal at those levels on the hourly or 30 min bars to go short. If taking that short, watch out for $52, as I said, goes back a long way. If broken, $50 shouldn't be far away IMO.
TVC:USOILLong
by BobVanders