$42 / $45 Target price - #CRUDE OIL BULLISH #brent #USOILclosed the week above weekly t-line & above resistance
Crude is going higher to $42 at least, there will be some trading range along the way of course but looks bullish
Crude-oil
Brent Crude Futures - Big Map on MonthlyWe can hit between 80-100 in wave B to retrace 50-61.8% of wave (A),
then down to tag the wave (A) termination point.
Brent Crude - Alternative count - double zigzag wave AIt could be a-b-c double zigzag in large wave A.
We got a and b in place and wave c already kicked off.
It's amazing that the trendline support wasn't broken yet.
Brent Crude Could Hit Between 41.60 and 46.60Earlier I posted an updated map where I was expecting a simple ABC correction down to hit 31-32 (see related)
It emerged as double three WXY instead and the wave (X) ran deeper to retest the start of wave (W) making it classic flat correction.
It looks finished as wave C of (Y) unfolded as an Ending Diagonal.
It was broken up now and the calculated target is located in the area between 41.60 and 46.60.
Now all waves look clear as we completed large wave 4 and now market aims at wave 5 up.
Levels to watch in CrudePosting this for those who are interested in Crude and what to anticipate as there is lots of uncertainty around this market. Because of that some major hedge funds prohibited their traders to trade running crude oil contracts.
On Market uncertainty -
"Bloomberg has reported that only 50% of shale producers have hedged 2021 production compared to 60% that had done so at a comparable point last year. Many producers are finding themselves trapped in a Catch 22 situation. The current WTI price of $32/barrel is still way off the ~$50/barrel that many shale producers require to turn a profit. Hedging at this point would effectively mean foregoing any future price gains and guaranteeing yourself a loss. With production cuts so far working nicely, the recent storage crunch now in the back mirror and economies gradually emerging from lockdown, that appears like a rushed decision.
On the other hand, this oil price rally appears to be running on fumes, and failing to hedge means risking even lower prices in the future. For instance, whereas the WTI June contract has rallied some 75% this month, WTI swap for 2021 has only climbed 10%. This essentially means that traders are very unsure whether the gains being made in the crude markets are here to stay."
More - oilprice.com
USOIL - Pullback is commingHello everyone, oil has been making great rallies lately, but it is time to have a pullback now. If we fall right now and make HS, then we will most likely see it go to 28$ and from then shoot up
Brent crude could drop into 31-32 after correctionWe got the first strong move down after a huge impulse up that more than doubled crude oil price and hit the target set at 36.90.
The wave C up in a correction could be over soon and crude oil then could drop into the blue box area of 31-32.
Brent crude: Last wave up is pending 5 of 5 to hit 36.90-38.80The crude oil completed minor correction in wave 4 of (5).
The last wave 5 of (5) is pending now. It could hit the area between 36.90 and 38.80.
USOIL - Time for massive gainsHello everyone, as we can see on the chart, we have been moving inside a channel for a very long time and we are at the resistance. I do think we are going to break the channel and finally get out of the bear-trend because of the following reasons:
- The economy is starting again, USA is opening states, China is opening, Europe is also opening it's economy, so all of this means that the demand will increase.
- Trump said that they are working hard to safe the oil industry, so he will help companies. Currently there are loans for small oil businesses, which aim to help the oil companies from bankruptcy.
- We have been in a bear trend from 2008 on the monthly chart, we have been making lower highs and lower lows. I am not saying we will make higher high than 2008, I am saying that we hit -30$ on the futures, we can't go any lower than that. I don't think there is any more room for us to the downside, only to the upside.
- Saudi Arabia already have cut it's production, everyone else is following, because oil is really in danger, I don't think that Saudi, USA and Russia will let oil industry die right now, especially Saudi, they need oil money in the long-run.
- USA is also not going to let oil companies dissapear in America, because otherwise Saudi Arabia will be a monopoly and they will sell oil on really high prices. This is why they need oil to go higher RIGHT NOW!
- China bought oil, this means that they also believe that oil is going to be more expensive in the following months and years.
- We are on the resistance of the channel and if we bounce right now to the downside, then we technically should hit negative numbers, which I don't think is going to happen in the near to mid future.
These are all my reasons to believe, that oil will hit 30$ this summer. Trade safe and enjoy the volatility!
BRENT OIL UPDATEAs expected, price is retesting our previous resistance in red.
Price didn't break below our double top neckline, so we didn't sell.
then price broke above our upper blue trendline objectively, and we will keep holding our buy until as long as price is trading above our orange trendline. (or until an objective sell setup is activated)
Brent Crude updated map - 5 of 5 upThis structure looks better.
The wave 4 finally I revealed the key for it as it unfolded with wave C as an ending diagonal.
Brent crude: updated map of current consolidaionThe wave (X) took so long to unfold but at the end the structure is quite simple double three.
Another drop should follow to complete the WXY correction.
WTI updated map - could be ending diagonal 5 of (C)The wave 4 that I was looking to unfold before could be over long ago as simple flat.
The further seesaw structure that already distracted so many traders from the crude could be an ending diagonal wave 5 of (5) of ((C)).
After it gets finished we could see a drop in 3 waves retracement.
WTI crude oil could hit 30-34 Current consolidation shaped a beautiful triangular structure as all rules of EW triangle are complied.
Watch breakout of triangle as CL1! futures could reach 30-34 area in blue box as target.
Brent crude: Updated map - impulse up is still in progressIt looks like there wave 4 is building within double three WXY (yellow). (I warned about it in the update below the idea )
Wave X is in progress. It can hit former top of 32.21 before reversing down to the valley of 28.66.
It's rather a sideways range trading. The market accumulates power to continue further up in wave 5 into the blue box.
P.S.
One could wonder, hey @aibek, why do you update brent crude so often and change the map in the opposite direction?
The thing is that the market is not static and more time elapses the more information we get.
This eliminates certain probabilities, that we build and creates new options for structure development.
And it is a constant process of changing with the chart as it always moves to the right ))) (old traders' joke).
Brent Crude could drop to 13.22-1.50 in last wave 5 downBrent crude benchmark could drop in wave 5 down into the blue box target area.
The wave 4 could be over already as it emerged within a huge double three WXY.
The wave Y is larger than W already.
Short WTI Crude OilShort WTI Crude Oil here is a very good opportunity. Have a proper stop-loss and you can see great profits coming
Brent crude oil: Alternative view - Double ThreeBrent crude could extend it's corrective structure making a double three WXY.
watch blue box area of 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement for further clue.
This an alternative view to augment the earlier posted idea. (see related)
Brent crude to retest former lowSame story as in S&P 500 (see retaled) as global pandemics undermined the economy.
Target 16 is a minimum to retest the former low.
Brent crude could hit 23.20-26.00We are in the last wave C of (Y) of ((B)) - it is a correction.
The wave C almost reached the distance of wave A.
The wave (Y) already hit 1.272 of (W).
Watch breakout of the yellow downtrend.
The target is the former top of wave ((A)) at 23.20 where the wave ((C)) will reach 0.618 of the former.
If it breaks above on a strong impulse than we can reach 26 where both waves are equal.
USOIL could reverse down after ending diagonal WTI could be in wave (C), which undfolds now within an ending diagonal.
It already reached the 1.414 of wave (A).
The wave 5 should complete it.
Then the drop is expected, which first should break below trendline support.
The final confirmation is below wave 4 of (C) under 13.19
The structure of the drop will show whether it will be a retest of the low or the joint correction.
