Crude-oil
Technical Analysis outlook - COMMODITY : $CRUDE OIL - $WTISun 10.Feb.2019
Crude oil
LAST= 52.60
Crude movement during the last few days showed a Bullish move, with a recent high price seen on Mon 04.Feb.2019 at 55.59.
During the next few days the price is expected to go down to 51.50
The general view is expected to continue to be in consolidation between 53.65 - 51.50.
On the other hand, a change in the direction of the general trend needs to be considered when the price trades below the level 49.50
Res_2 = 55.25
Res_1 = 53.75
Sup_1 = 52.00
Sup_2 = 51.10
WTI Oil: Possibility for a 4H Channel Up. Oil has respected a very clear 4H trend-line of Higher Lows, giving rise to the development of a Channel Up (RSI = 57.601, MACD = 0.260, Highs/Lows = 0.3029, BBP = 0.4580). As long as the supporting Higher Low trend-line holds, the price will be aiming for a new +7.80% Higher High at 55.750, which is the TP in this case. Attention is required, as based on the chart below, there is heavy Resistance at 54.485, created by the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on 1D. That neckline ranges from 49.35 to 54.485, so if we get a rejection close to the 1D Resistance (54.485) and the 4H Higher Low supporting line breaks, we will need to wait for a test near the 49.35 1D Support before it breaks any higher. This is an equally possible scenario for the short term, so those two are essentially long entry points.
See the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern below:
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Deep Crab SpottedHello everyone! Today we have spotted a new deep crab pattern spotted on the crude oil h4 chart attempting to complete! The previous bat pattern is still also in play. Do you think these patterns will continue their formation? Feel free to leave your questions below in the comments section!
Crude oil long opportunity USOIL WTICOUSD CL2!We have a long opportunity in crude oil now. Crude oil has been sitting at the 61.8% retrace around 45.40ish for the last couple of days.
A study of the longer term cycles shows that we have just completed a corrective red zone which actually started in March 2018, this cycle reached a low in December 2018 and will reach its next high in June 2019.
We are still in a green (bullish) longer term zone which started January 2016 and should end around July 2019.
These cycles are represented by the different types of vertical lines on the charts.
I believe after August 2019, we will have the chance to short oil once again.
If the 61.8% retrace does fail, then we may see a drop to $36-40, so be careful.
Stop loss 44.90
Short term target 51
Longer term targets range from 62 and up.
This is not recommendation to buy or to sell.
(see information about cycles at the DJIA links below)
Crude oil goes for more lossesTarget: 42.00
Risk: 47.80
Technical reasons:
The continuation of the strong decline pushes crude oil price to approach the expected target at 45.00, with signal of opening the door to visit the previously recorded low at 42.00.
The negative pressure that comes by the exponential moving average 50 supports the continuation of the bearish trend, while consolidating below 47.80 is important to continue the decline.
Crude oil target low - WTI will reverse It's likely the target low is the 200 MA on the 2 month chart. It reversed from the 200 MA on the one month chart. So we're looking for a reversal around the 44 dollar mark but we would expect a shadow candle to go through so maybe 40 dollars tomorrow before the rate announcement. After that we are expecting a reversal regardless of the decision. We think this US dollar markett has already priced in the rate hike and is now just looking for a catalyst basically to reverse on. CL has been tracking a fairly standard fib pinball game from its all time high. Once the rally gets underway 90.00 for a high is not out of the question but it's a bit too early to predict a top.
Oil reports can give some support to oil bullsIn the latest monthly oil reports the demand growth forecasts didn't change and slowing production growth in H1 2019 due to production cuts could bring some stability around the 50% fibonacci level and could also give some short term support for bulls.
This could lead to retesting the broken trendline while the first resiStance at around 60-61 which could a tough hurdle to the bulls given the stockpiles built up in 2018, following this a further drop probably in mid January/February will follow with new lows below 50 dollars to form the "c" wave. Given the stregth of lvl 50 the move below could be either just a spike or a bigger move well into the 40 dollar area.
However if the 60-61 zone will not hold, the next supply zones could be at 64-65 (double top neckline) and the strongest supply zone could that has to be broken by the bulls is 72-76. However this scenario is unlikely unless some extreme situations will occur.
WTI 2018-11-26 possible breakout setup
Small pivot range set from last session into current
Value area overlapped and down from last session
POC's basically same and aligned for past two sessions
Previous session looks like an 'expanded typical day' following the previous session of a 'double-distributed trending day'
Plan for 27th:
Wait for IB to be set. Could help add clarity as to market type options for 27th
Consider how price moves out of IB
Consider a position if price clearly breaks the S4 or R4 pivots
Watch price action around important lines like previous sessions' VAH/VAL, POC, and current session's Camarilla pivots S3/4, R3/4
Watch for candles that signal some type of reversal or direction change at these levels and where buyers/sellers may come in.