WTI Crude Oil - USOILI've singled out prior balance areas using Auction Market Theory, obviously they're not exact. I threw up a fib to give me an idea for a new balance area to develop. I'll wait until it's developed but i'll look for short positions as long as it's below #12 prior bal area low. If it hits invalidation area i'll wait until a more defined trend/area develops before deciding anything.
This is the first idea I've ever published so i'm not really sure how much i'll enjoy doing this.
Crude-oil
Another bloody August for USOIL?Let's see whether we can catch a significant bottom in USOIL price for 3rd August in a row :)
I am looking for decline through the next 5-7 weeks due to the following brutal rejection at Weekly Pivot R1, which is also Daily EMA100.
Note RSI - although the new high of 47.71 is slightly above previous major high 47.29 on Jul 4, downtrending RSI makes me think buyers are walking away.
Target 1: 42.55
This is the area of current Monthly Pivot S1, and closely correlates to last "minor lows" June 2017, December 2016, Sep 2016
Target 2: 39.78
This is the area of current Monthly Pivot S2, and closely correlates to last two "major lows" on August 2016 and August 2015
Both areas are possible reversal zones, though S2 looks more likely at this time.
Watching out for:
- OPEC/Russia murmurings during last week of July (I don't believe any further cuts will be announced).
- Further big declines in USD
- Collapse of Venezuela and more Mad Max stories :) www.google.ca
WTI BreakdownStrictly Technical WTI Channel In Play //
STOCH SIGNAL // Bullish start H1/H4 // Oversold conditions
GMACD // Trend/UP Medium M15/M30/H1/D1/
Very strong downtrend for WTI and if breakouts of channel we will look to short Crude Oil but if we get a bounce from this upwards channel we can take a position going long to 48-49. I will update this Idea if I find a valid setup.
Huge momentum behind oilOil hard to oppose here. The downdraft was overdone so the oil price is now compensating upwards looking for fair value, while new news including the first reduction in US production and the first reduction of the US rig count this year is adding coal to the boiler. Bot were announced this week.
Watch for the Chinese Caixin PMI on Sunday 2 July. This will give clear direction for the Asian market. A reading over 50 could turbo charge the upward march.
The banana just gives shape to the tops. Will take special news to take out 49.x
48.3 could also be tough to push through. A thinning of the Ichimoku cloud on the trajectory will encourage bulls to push ahead and create the necessary short covering which has been a big feature of the rise so far.
CRUDE OIL - The Multiday long takes strengthCRUDE OIL - The Multiday long takes strength
Continues to take strenght the multiday long movement (weekly) started on 29/6
The first resistance of this movement is at 45.91, if it will be violated can be start monthly long movement.
CRUDE OIL - CLQ17 - Aug '17
CROC X1 - Support / Resistance - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3=48.05
R2=47.21
R1=45.91
PIVOT=45.34
S1=44.76
Just wanted to share my triangle scalping theory for crude oilThis pattern has brought me great success scalping crude oil.
How to trade it:
Look for an ABCD triangle formation with lower highs and higher lows.
Draw the triangle with extended lines.
Measure the baseline at B and divide it by 2
Add this value to the point of breakout to get a nice padded target to either side
Look out for fakeouts and good luck.
Backtests may occur on the extended lines to the right but moving between them invalidates the triangle and the trade should be closed.