Crude-oil
#Crudeoil Could End Lower Near-TermCrude Oil Brief
Crude oil has been strong of late and has gained nearly 30 percent over the last four months. Much of this has to due with the exporting of crude and products which has dramatically lowered inventory stocks - overall stocks the lowest since March 2015.
However, we are heading into a seasonally weak period for energy products, and inventories could begin to build. Moreover, US production has recovered from both hurricanes with producers producing over 9 m/bbl per day.
Market sentiment on inflation has also aiding in bidding prices up, but we think there will be an inflection in 5- and 10-year breakevens. This could put pressure on crude as higher inflation hopes begin to wane.
Technically, price is beginning to reject a key technical supply zone between $55.33 and $54.09. This has been a point has been contested three prior times going back to 2015, and each failure to break through has caused hefty pullbacks.
TrendFlex Active score is moderately bullish in regards to trend, but price momentum and volatility range is contracting.
Potential downside targets for crude are $51.94 and $49.01.
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Short Unless we see Bullish ConfirmationSeasonal Skew to the short side says that we should fail around this level and rotate lower. Jump on now, or if your christian and like to wait for confirmation, you can short on the failure of 52.80
Crude Oil Intra-day Correction; More Upside In ViewCrude oil made a perfect drop lower, which we now see it as wave c of a three-wave decline. Ideally this three-wave decline will now come to an end and a new turn up will be seen around the former swing low at 50.35 level and near the Fibonacci ratio of 100.0, where measurement of equality of waves a and c comes in play.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
WTI try to get filled for a increasing contango oil tradelooks to me the price of close in oil is getting ahead of it's self, so try to get a fill to see that reverse. This one will have about a 1K pbr so will shoot for about a $500 gain, however the down side on thins one could exceed 500 also
Brent Crude Oil W Fractal Structure
Significant levels of the market
Local limits
Regression lines
Cycles
Modified Fib
Crude Long Chart shows everything.
4 hour closed above MA9 ergo -and RSI seems fine. Ergo -I went long.
Oil Likely to Charge Straight AheadPublishing this ahead of the Oil report as there won't be any more good opportunities to go long after it, unless we get a dip and you have fast hands. While many thesis claim that we are still in a bear trend, we believe that we have completed a bear cycle and are now ready to make a bull cycle. If today's inventory report reports a draw (which we expect) then it should give reason for price to move back up. A weaker dollar has also been supporting oil prices as of lately.
Seasonality gets really bullish starting this week and we don't expect this pattern to change this time around. ADX still shows a bullish trend and we have been flirting with the channel for an entire week, all selling pressure has been soaked up and we are in a bullish pennant.
Stay safe everyone and stay tuned for more updates.
Our stop losses are at 48.30. If you understand the risk and agree, pull the trigger.
Final push down in Oil is on the waySummer across the board, making all kinds of fake moves possible. Oil is not an exception, having hard times deciding what to do next. Time to focus on a big picture.
It looks like on Tuesday, August 1st folks were reestablishing their short positions, which were closed at the end of the month, the day before. Hopefully it was a "technical" move and we will continue a bit higher to 200 Daily MA @ 51.5x December 2017 contract.
Overall USOIL appears to be 2-3 days close to start off a final 5th ABC wave of the Expanding Diagonal (5)th of a major C from 2011.
51.2 - 51.5 comes out to be an area of strong confluence, where 200 DMA and trendline sit alongside some harmonics.
In case the price will travel above 51.2 - 51.5, 52.6x will become another potential reversal zone. Where 0.618 retracement of wave 1 to 3, 0.786 retracement of wave 3 and end of wave B of 3 converge.
Stops should be placed above this area, @ 52.6x. Still the set-up will be violated only above $55 handle.
It is pretty common for wave 5 to be truncated following extended 3rd. So my primary target will be $38 per bbl December contract - January 2016 low. More clear targets would be set while the ABC pattern unfolds.
p.s. CAD heavily overbought and diverging.
Trade safe, control your risk.
