Crude-oil
Analysis of production, consumption and reserves of oil and oil On April 11, a fresh STEO report comes out, so you should wait for the updated forecast for the oil market from an official source. Conclusions on this report will be published in the blog www.cofutrading.com. But at the moment the situation is as follows: OPEC reduces production, and the US increases it. But along with the growth in production, which is accompanied by an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US, oil consumption is also increasing. Exports are also high. Despite of inreasing us oil stocks (which is quite normal for a given time of the year), the growth rate of reserves is low, it is lower than last year and below the average for 5 years of value. That in general is bullish (at least for me). Demand for gasoline is high, demand for distillate is also high, so refineries will continue to "consume" a sufficient amount of oil, absorbing the growth of supply. Judging by CFTC COT reports, as of March 28, funds reduced their extremely bullish position. I do not attach high importance to these reports, I can only say that the long lines have been dropped, so the way for entering new long positions is open. I continue to adhere to the neutral-bullish direction in the US oil market, but before the opening of new positions I will wait for a new STEO report from the EIA.
See EIA report charts at my facebook page :
Elliott Wave Analysis: CADJPY Could Be In For A ReversalAs you might know, we are looking higher on stocks based on Elliott Wave structure after only three waves of decline on E-mini S&P500 from 2400 highs. So more upside on stocks is normally bearish for Japanese yen, in risk-on environment. At the same time we see Oil prices in bullish mode as well which can be supportive for the Canadian dollar. What all that said, CADJPY can be an interesting pair in the coming sessions and days. Not only because of those market correlations, but also because of the wave structure which shows wave C) down to be an ending diagonal; this is a reversal pattern which can already be pointing to the upside if we consider five waves up on 30min chart.
Crude Oil Preparing For BreakoutPlease refer to image.
Crude oil will breakout, just a matter of on the first try or not.
Crude Oil Short With no further cuts announced yet and Iraq increasing production by the end of this year, oil is squeezed in a narrow trendline which it could break once resistance levels are hit.
2 scenarios for oil1. 5th wave in C has started
2. (B) wave in triangle correction ABCDE in 4th wave has started. This means, that 5th wave will be much later, but I think this is not what is exactly happening on oil market.
For me scenario 1 is more preferable.
In any scenario just keep calm and short oil, when it breaks 47.06 support.
P.S. always use stop loss. Always. Yes, ALWAYS!
This is crude oil prediction for educative and following purposeI try to find a patern and for now it is the only one i see. It seem that 60 and 40 is the number to look at . at 40 i will be a agressive buyer. not sur i will short 60. Short term 45 seem safe .
Bearish Completion of Bullish Bat & Bullish AB-CD Patterns I am short until the point of both harmonic patterns indicate .
Strong resistance at 54.15 , down from here 52.00 is nice support .
In order to complete both bullish patterns, it must be down till 47.00
After that support it will start Bullish Rally
Signs of weakness despite output cutsWTI failed to break new highs despite efforts to cut output from the Saudis. Iran and Russia has yet to fully comply with output cuts meanwhile US oil production gradually increasing week on week on the back of reports suggesting that shale production cost are becoming cheaper.
US Dollar remain strong in an uptrend after breaking out from its trading range, this will probably push oil prices lower.
Crude Oil Long Trade 200 Pips I have been waiting a few weeks for Crude to get to this point now, we have tested the 61.8 fib twice in the last few hours and seems to be a lot of buyers there, we are also hitting its uptrend support from back in December and i believe now we will see a continuation to $55 a barrel.
crude oil optimal price arrangementsSoon we have two possible action on crude oil on this week arroung the price of 55,15:
1) More possibly "a shooting star" appears getting bearish action toward 46,00 which would be a bottom or reversal price for bulls again. Bulls on crude oil during the summer is favorable for OPEC countries.
2)Less possibly crude oil price stays above 55,15 in daily candles and bullish action continues. i think this is less possible because any price above 55,00 during spring-summer time is not sustainable.
wti fallit should be going down , the api weekly crude stock release is in a day, it should be another surplus enough to put the crude price down
Crude Short Head and Shoulders Formed Price has not managed to break through resistance at $53.45 creating a head and shoulders pattern, now we should be looking to hit target of $52.20
Crude oil (usoil)Everything on the graph, due to my dyslexia :D
Generally feeling bearish. SIMILAR MARKET BEHAVIOR (FRACTALS) ARE PUT IN RED RECTANGLES.
Breaking above $56.50 might refresh the target up to $60 a barrel.
[Update] Crude Oil Elliottwave CountFundamentals still intact and with the release of OPEC monthly report strengthens the idea to go long in oil
Disclaimer*
All ideas published here involve risk and does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
