Crude
USOIL (Continuation falling)Oil prices increased early as we mentioned, recovering from a six-week low after a significant 4.3% fall the previous day, which was the lowest point since mid-March. This drop was attributed to an unexpected surge in U.S. stockpiles, indicating softer demand than anticipated.
At the same time, market observers have pointed out that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady, diminishing earlier expectations for a rate cut. PVM Oil Associates commented, "The reduction in borrowing costs may not occur as soon or as quickly as previously thought. It is similar to peak oil demand—consistently anticipated yet never realized."
Technically:
The price has stabilized within the bearish zone, having already breached the pivotal range between 80.73 and 82.24. This suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, with potential targets at 76.80 and 75.35. A further break below 75.35 could lead the price down to 69.78.
Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 82.24, it may indicate a bullish trend, potentially reaching up to 86.86.
Pivot line: 78.00
Support lines: 76.80, 75.35, 69.78
Resistance lines: 80.73, 82.24, 86.86
OIL (WTI) - 4H Three PushThe WTI Oil 4H chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern, often referred to as the "three pushes" or "three drives" pattern. This pattern is characterized by three distinct attempts by the market to push lower, each attempt being met with increasing buying interest. The current setup shows that after three downward pushes, the price has started to rebound, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
The price action has recently broken above the upper boundary of the descending wedge, which suggests a weakening bearish trend and the possibility of a new bullish phase. The target for this bullish movement could be around the $84 level, where previous resistance lies. Traders should watch for continued higher highs and higher lows to confirm the upward trajectory, and consider long positions as the price action aligns with this bullish reversal signal.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 79.94 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 79.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 82.41 which is a pullback resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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WTI OIL Bullish Divergence aiming higher.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been consolidating within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) for a full month. We have previously seen the same king of consolidation in mid-2023 and then November 2023 - January 2024. On both occasions, the price then entered a medium-term Channel Up.
Also on all occasions, the 1D RSI was on Higher Lows, while the price has been on Lower Lows, which is an indication of a Bullish Divergence. It is the exact same formation that Oil is currently on. As a result, we turn bullish on Crude for the medium-term, targeting $84.00 (just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and on the Lower Highs trend-line).
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WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fib retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 78.41 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 79.30 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 76.59 which is a pullback support.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Let's see if it can climb back above the 78-dollar markEASYMARKETS:OILUSD
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WTI Oil H1 | Rising into resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 77.74 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 78.50 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 76.68 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Crude Prices Decline as Weekly EIA Inventories Unexpectedly RiseEquity Markets Navigate Macro Scenarios Amid Interest Rate and Stagflation Concerns
Equity markets navigate various macroeconomic scenarios as investors weigh the risks of prolonged high interest rates and potential stagflation.
HSBC suggests that greater clarity from the Federal Reserve, even if leaning more hawkish, could ease market pressures. Strategists believe this could lead to global equity gains in both a balanced "goldilocks" scenario and a mild stagflation scenario.
"The exact timing of Fed rate cuts should not significantly impact equities, especially if any delay is due to economic strength," they noted in a statement.
The upside for global equities both in a goldilocks and a mini stagflation scenario
Technically side:
The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea, and still trading at the bearish zone to reach 75.35.
so the bearish trend suggestion will continue as long as trades under 78.78 toward 76.60 and 75.35
the price will move between 80.73 and 75.35 for this week
Pivot line: 78.78
Support lines: 76.60, 75.35, 69.78
Resistance lines: 80.73, 82.24, 83.75
WTI CRUDE OIL: Neutral on 4H but at the top of the Channel Down.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 44.657, MACD = -0.100, ADX = 42.834) as it has been trading sideways since the start of the month. Nonetheless, it got rejected yesterday at the top of the Channel Down and the 4H MA100, was where it got rejected last time on April 26th. We are short, aiming a the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 73.20).
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OIL (WTI) - 4H Sell SetupIn the past hours, OIL (WTI) experienced a sharp rise driven by news of Iran's president's death, which significantly impacted market sentiment.
This surge allowed OIL to break above the bearish channel and catch the liquidity over the resistance zone, as illustrated on the chart.
However, despite this upward spike, the price action suggests that OIL may continue its downward trajectory within the descending channel.
Traders should monitor this closely as the price looks set to resume its fall, adhering to the prevailing bearish trend.
The liquidity hunting above the resistance zone indicates potential for further declines as the market reverts to its established downward path.
WTI OIL Strong rejection on 1D MA200 but be aware of a break-outWTI Oil (USOIL) made yesterday a strong rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been essentially the Resistance since the price broke below it on May 01. Having this level as a Resistance for 3 weeks makes it the strongest sell entry candidate, considering also the fact that this is the top of the 1-month Channel Down, thus a new Lower High.
As long as we don't close a 1D candle below the 1D MA200, we will be bearish, targeting 74.00 (-7.75% decline, similar to both previous Bearish Legs of the Channel Down). If we do close a 1D candle above the 1D MA200, we will take the small loss and target 83.00 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension). The reason for being prepared for a long position as well, is because the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross.
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WTI Oil H4 | Approaching pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 77.67 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 76.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 80.12 which is a pullback resistance that lies underneath the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI Oil H4 | Heading into resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 79.82 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 81.06 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 77.67 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias.
We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says.
Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective.
If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
WTI Oil H4 | Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?WTI oil (USOIL) is trading close to a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 78.02 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 76.60 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 79.87 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 79.77 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 80.80 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 77.22 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI Oil H1 | Potential bullish breakoutWTI oil (USOIL) is trading close to a breakout level and the bullish momentum could potentially push it higher from here.
Buy entry is at 79.89 which is a potential breakout level ( Wait for the 30-min candle to close above this level for confirmation ).
Stop loss is at 78.70 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 81.23 which is a pullback resistance that lies underneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.