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Crude Oil - Elliott Wave CountCrude Oil - Elliott Wave Count Based on the current market trends, it appears that there is a bearish sentiment prevailing. As a result, it is likely that we may witness a decline in the value of the asset to 85 or below. It is important to note that we have set our stop loss at today's high, which means that if the price breaks above this level, we will exit the market. Please note that this information is for educational purposes only, and it is crucial to trade with caution. MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:CL1! TVC:USOIL CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE MCX:CRUDEOILM1! EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
TVC:USOILShort
by Treda_pro
Crude oil - Elliott Wave CountCrude oil - Elliott Wave Count Certainly, here is the rewritten text: Based on market analysis, it appears that crude oil is currently undergoing a triangle correction of wave B, with a projected target range of $89.5. Once the wave B correction is complete, wave C is expected to decline all the way to the $75 range. In light of this, we recommend refraining from taking long positions in a bearish market. Instead, it would be prudent to wait for a reversal and take a short position. Please note that this information is for educational purposes only, and it is crucial to trade with caution. TVC:USOIL FX:USOILSPOT BLACKBULL:USOIL.F MCX:CRUDEOIL1! NYMEX:CL1! TVC:USOIL CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by Treda_pro
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOUSD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially reverse from here to bounce higher towards our take profit target. Entry: 88.108 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 86.519 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 91.890 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
WTI H4 | Bullish trend to extend further?WTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 86.386 which is a pullback support that aligns under the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 84.478 which is a level that sits under an overlap support and aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 89.600 which is a pullback resistance that sits under the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
1
A Traders' Weekly Playbook - energy markets to direct sentimentWe look at the scheduled economic data and US earnings this week and question if given the fluid news flow from the Middle East, these events move the dial or if geopolitics consumes the full attention and direct sentiment. We saw a rush to hedge portfolios on Friday ahead of a darkening picture emerging in the Middle East. The situation is dynamic and it's too early to say if the hedges placed on Friday are unwarranted, but there have been pockets of positive news flow – for example, US Secretary of State Blinken saying aid will get to Gaza via the Egyptian border, and Israel opening water supply to Southern Gaza, with over 600k Gazans moving south. A call between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Iranian officials is a development, with the US warning not to increase aggression. As Israel's ground offensive pushes into Gaza, risk and energy markets will look for headlines and actions from Iranian officials who have stated they have a duty to come to the aid of the Palestinians. Watching crude and Nat Gas The energy markets are the first derivative to drive broad market sentiment this week, with crude and Nat Gas leading investors to trade volatility (options), as well as classic hedges such as gold and Treasuries. Amid a backdrop of ‘higher for longer’, and the US CPI inflation gaining 0.4% in September, higher energy prices could deliver a one-way punch to sentiment. Given market participants are generally poor at pricing risk around geopolitical developments, it's no wonder most have looked to mitigate drawdown - but at this stage, while there is a growing wall of worry to potentially climb, the probability is traders will use strength in risky assets to reduce exposures. The probability of supply disruptions is one of the key aspects here – last week we saw the closure of Chevron’s Tamar gas field in Israel – the focus has been rerouting that gas from the Leviathan gas fields in the North of Israel – if the market feels this gas field could be impacted then could see a spike in EU NG. Many energy experts see the risk of a supply event here as fairly low, but should developments escalate on various fronts, then the market will increase the possibility of a disruption. The bear case for risk, given the potential for a significant rally in EU NG and crude, would be where the market increases the probability of Iran curtailing the movement of LNG through the Straits of Hormuz, where notably Qatar LNG supply (20% of the global LNG market) would be impacted. Again, this seems a low probability at this stage, but that will depend on Iran’s ongoing involvement and any new sanctions placed on them. Downside risk to the EUR If EU NG spikes higher in the near term, then talk of a renewed energy crisis in Europe will resurface and the EURUSD could be headed to parity. As said, this probability is a lower risk right now, but when considering the risks, this is the market concern that will be monitored. While sentiment will move around on each headline, we revisit the hedging flows seen on Friday, as traders de-risked ahead of potential gapping risk – It’s too hard to make a call on whether these hedges are partly unwound in Asia. Where did we see the hedging flows? • Gold rallied 3.4% on Friday - a 3-sigma move and the second biggest day since 2020. A massive 299k gold futures contracts traded, the highest since May. XAUUSD 1-month implied volatility has pushed to 15% and 1-week call volatility has increased to a 1.75 vol premium to puts – the most since March. • The XAUUSD price closed at a 2.8% premium to the 5-day moving average, which shows the sheer pace of the intraday rally, with limited intraday mean reversion – sellers just stood aside. • Brent crude closed 5% higher with our Brent price closing over $91 and eyeing a move back to the recent highs of $96 – WTI Crude futures saw the curve lift and go further into backwardation – this typically means the market sees a higher probability of a supply shock. • In equities, the VIX traded to a high of 20.78%, settling at 19.3% (+2.6 vols on the day) – a VIX index at 19.3% implies daily % changes in the S&P500 of 1.2% and 2.7% on the week. • S&P 1-month put implied vol now trades at a 5.46 vol premium to 1-month calls – This volatility ‘Skew’ is now the most bearish since May – traders are ramping up the demand for downside puts to protect in case of drawdown. • Market breadth was ok with 46% of S&P500 stocks closed higher – there was no blanket selling, but a rotation from tech and consumer names into energy and defensive sectors - staples, utilities, and healthcare. • While we saw some buying in petrocurrencies (NOK & CAD) but traders played defense buying into the CHF & JPY – short NZDCHF was the play of the day (-1.4%), with GBPCHF breaking the long-run range lows. • US Treasuries rallied with 10’s closing -8bp and 30’s -10bp. Marquee event risks for the week ahead: • NZ Q3 CPI (17 Oct 08:45 AEDT) – the market consensus is for 1.9% QoQ / 5.9% YoY (from 6%) – NZDCHF was the biggest percentage mover on Friday following the risk aversion flows – will the sellers follow through? • UK jobless claims/wage data (17 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for wages sits at 7.8% (unchanged) – UK swaps place a 29% chance of a hike from the BoE at the 2 Nov BoE meeting, will the wage data influence that pricing? GBPCHF trades the weakest levels since Oct 2022 and looks likely to be sold on rallies • US retail sales (17 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – the advanced read is expected at 0.3% mom and the ‘control group’ element at -0.1%. The retail numbers could influence market sentiment, especially if we see a big miss to expectations, with USDJPY and USDCHF the pairs most sensitive to a weaker outcome. Gold could find further buyers on a downside surprise. • Canada CPI (23:30 AEDT) – headline CPI is expected at 4% yoy, with core CPI eyed at 4% yoy • Fed chair Jay Powell speaks at the Economic Club of NY (20 Oct 03:00 AEDT) – the highlight of the week. Expect Powell to focus on the view that moves in the bond market are mitigating the need for the Fed to hike further. • China Q3 GDP (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) – consensus is 4.5% yoy (from 6.3%) – likely a trough in China’s GDP, with better levels ahead. • China Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) • UK Sept CPI (18 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for headline CPI is 6.6% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI at 6% yoy (6.2%) – a risk to manage for traders holding GBP exposures • EU CPI (18 Oct 20:00 AEDT) – no change expected in the revision, with headline CPI eyed at 4.3% /core CPI at 4.5%. Should be a non-event for the EUR and EU equities. • Australia employment report (19 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus estimate is for 20k jobs to have been created in September and the U/E rate unchanged at 3.7% - expect the impact from Aussie jobs to be short-lived – preference to work sell limits in AUDUSD on the day and sell into strength. • China new homes prices (19 Oct 12:30 AEDT) • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (20 Oct 12:15 AEDT) – the consensus is no change with the 1yr rate to stay at 5.2% & the 5yr rate at 3.45% US Earnings (with the implied move on earnings) – Goldman Sachs (3.7%), Bank of America (4.6%), Tesla (5.2%), Netflix (7.5%) Central bank speeches: BoE – Huw Pill, Sam Woods, Swati Dhingra ECB – Villeroy, Knot, Centeno, Guindos, Holzmann Fed – see schedule below
NYMEX:TTF1!Long
by Pepperstone
5
Crude Oil Super Bullish Targeting 121 and 149 US $Crude Oil Super Bullish Targeting 121 and 149 US $ I n my previouse Oil Trading Idea I mentioned the main factors why we have reahed the bottom. I opened the first trades on May the 23rd(See signals above) but gave my stops more rooms, below the 15 Months Support, and as they ´ve been confirme I added more aditional Positions on June 23rd, Last week I added agressively the 3d tranche of my Positions as the market broke 3 very important resistances in raw without any significant pullbacks. To take these trades needs high levels of patience, weekly news should and can be ignored. On the same time I closed all my short positions which I continiousely opened from 119 downwards. My Trading indicators confirmed these levely very nicely, and that is the powerfull answer to all news and news makers, and day traders who lost 90% of their capitals, an following news blindly, or vasting their times and assets in day traing: TREND ALWAYS WINS! ALWAY! NEVER DOUBT ABOUT IT! Bullish sentiment is building in oil markets as U.S. inventory levels continue to drop while OPEC+ production and export cuts are expected to be extended. Continuous US stock draws equivalent to a 1 million b/d decline over the past five weeks have led to an unusually tight oil market in the United States, adding upward pressure to oil prices despite economic woes. Widespread expectations of OPEC+ extending production and export cuts as well as recovering Chinese manufacturing activity have added to the bullish sentiment, with ICE Brent surpassing $87 per barrel.  Chevron Workers Reject Company Offer, Start Striking Next Week. Workers at Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) Australian Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants have rejected the company’s pay and conditions offer, moving full steam ahead with planned work stoppages starting from September 7.  Russia Flags OPEC+ Coordination on Track. Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak announced that OPEC+ members have agreed on the main parameters of production over the upcoming months but would only announce it next week, indicating Riyadh’s and Moscow’s cuts are to continue.  International Banks Team Up in Glencore Battle. Glencore’s (LON:GLEN) stock performance has been anemic recently as a whopping 197 claimants took the trading giant to London courts over “numerous misleading statements” and repeated cases on unlawful conduct, with several African bribery cases. Oil Majors Lament on US Wind Power Prices. European oil majors Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) and BP (NYSE:BP) are seeking a 54% increase in the purchase agreement prices of three planned US wind farms, according to a NY regulatory filing, with the initial strike prices set at $108-118 per MWh.    Argentina Ramps Up Shale Gas Offtake. The home of Argentina’s shale gas play Vaca Muerta, the province of Neuquen, posted record high gas injection levels this month, topping 100 Mcf per day, as a new gas pipeline connecting the fields to the capital Buenos Aires was inaugurated recently.  Higher Interest Rates Prompt LNG Plants to Hike Fees. A string of US LNG developers, most notably NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT) with its Rio Grande LNG project, adjusted term deals signed earlier and increased liquefaction fees to reflect rising interest rates and higher construction costs.  Gabon Coups Leaves Regional Trade on Tenterhooks. At least 30 commercial vessels, of which at least 6 tankers, anchored in Gabon’s territorial waters after the military seized power in the African country from long-time president Ali Bongo, with Libreville halting port operations.  Trans Mountain Pipeline Faces New Delays. Trans Mountain Corp, the operator of the eponymous pipeline, expressed its fears that its Q1 2024 commissioning might be delayed as the Canadian government is still yet to approve a route deviation on a 0.8-mile section, opposed by a First Nation.  First Gulf Coast Wind Auction Triggers Weak Interest. The first-ever offshore wind auction in the US Gulf Coast ended with a single $5.6 million bid for 102,480 acres off Louisiana coming from German renewable developer RWE (ETR:RWE), the lowest winning bid for a federal wind lease.   Chevron Evacuates Its Gulf Coast Platforms. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) evacuated its staff from three oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico – Blind Faith, Petronius and the soon-to-be-decommissioned Genesis – ahead of Hurricane Idalia, shutting in some 125,000 b/d of production capacity. Gazprom Hides Production Figures as Sales Drop. Russia’s leading gas producer Gazprom (MX:GAZP) stopped reporting export figures as it published financial results for the first half of 2023, posting $3.1 billion in net profit, a mere quarter of its $12 billion EBITDA for the same period.  Japan Extends Oil Subsidies Until End-2023. Japan’s Trade and Industry Ministry (METI) extended oil product subsidies until the end of December 2023 as retail gasoline prices soared to the highest readings ever this week, reaching $200 per barrel, boosted by higher oil prices and a weaker yen.  Lithium Prices Go into a Tailspin. Having already halved since January, Chinese lithium prices have dropped a further 10% in August as lithium hydroxide EXW China quotes fell to $33,500 per metric tonne, below those of lithium carbonate, amid poor demand for high-nickel cathodes.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by DaveBrascoFX
5
A new conflicts roils the oil marketOver the weekend, a new conflict broke out in the Middle East after Hamas, a designated terrorist organization, initiated an assault on Israel. This attack is already roiling the oil market, which saw oil prices rise more than 5% after the futures market opened. However, it is possible the impact has not been fully felt yet, considering the potential for further escalation amid Iran’s involvement in the preparations for the attack. Such developments could lead to broader conflict in the region responsible for producing one-third of global supply. That, in turn, could send the oil price much higher from the current levels (likely toward $100 and potentially even higher). As a result, we are closely monitoring the situation and will update our thoughts with the emergence of new events. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates an opening gap. If the gap fails to be filled, it will bolster a bullish case for oil in the short term. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the initial return of the price in the upward-sloping channel (after the market opened). It will be bullish if the price re-enters the channel again and holds above the lower bound. Illustration 1.03 The picture above portrays the daily chart of MACD. If it fails to break below the midpoint and starts flattening, it will be a bullish sign. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Crude Oil (CL) Gap Fill LongWhile it's unclear whether crude, which has experienced large moves recently on account of the developing conflict between Israel-Hamas, wants to trade higher or lower over the longer-term, we’re looking to take near-term longs after filling the downside futures gap formed 10/6. We’re only showing down to a 30-minute chart here, but there are some smaller supply/sell zones @ ~84.25-84.75, which could be used for initial profit targets. If the trade works for a bounce, you can also consider applying mechanical targets @ 1:1, 2:1, 3:1, etc. Regarding an exact entry price and stop loss placement, the gap fill demand zone is a bit messy. The closing price of the gap itself, technically, is 82.81, so ideally we’d see CL trade to that #. However, markets aren’t always THAT precise, so it could put in a low at a slightly higher price. Furthermore, stop placement really depends on the timeframe used. The “distal” (lower bound) line of the daily demand/buy zone is 81.50, so if you can afford the risk, a physical stop could be placed below (never align your stops exactly w/ a zone’s range + don’t use whole numbers/quarters). More conservative placement could be slightly below 81.71 or 82.31, but there’s a higher chance you’ll be stopped out; depending on account/position size and risk tolerance, you can always deploy a “small loss, reenter” strategy. If you’re nimble enough, consider using a micro timeframe (single-digit minute, tick, or volume-based chart) to ID a trend reversal signal (higher high, higher low) before entering. If CL violates recently formed daily demand (82.81-81.50), be aware that there are “bear trap” areas waiting just beneath. Entries within the corrective segment of the uptrend that began in late-June are valid until prices breech the 77.59 pivot. As always, feel free to provide feedback and/or ask questions. Good luck, be smart, and enjoy the journey! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
Crude oil I've been watching oil closely for the last two months. I would like to say that oil is a trending instrument, we started the decline from 95$ per barrel and fell quite rapidly until the conflict in the Middle East. all news resources said that oil rose in price on the background of this news. Technically, I was waiting for this upward correction. But if the war will really be global, the price of oil should be cheap to strengthen the US and the dollar, and these goals began to be fulfilled. In what way? I have written about this many times, that what we trade is futures oil, in the financial market, and the main players in futures oil are City Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase read more Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:UKOIL
by EXCAVO
2
Canadian Dollar strength driven by Oil pricesAs crude oil prices climb due to the geopolitical conflict, has resulted in the Canadian Dollar gaining strength. With the prices testing the 1.36 price level, the idea was a bounce above the 23.60% fib retracement level could see a continuation to the upside. However, with the DXY weakening, look for the USDCAD to break below the longer term fib retracement level of 61.8% to signal a continuation of the recent downtrend, with the next major support level at 1.34
Short
by JinDao_Tai
WTI H4 | Approaching 61.85% FiboWTI oil (USOUSD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially reverse from here to bounce higher towards our take profit target. Entry: 84.664 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 81.674 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 88.140 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci projection level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
Oil: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: Oil Pattern – Lower High Support – 86.00 Resistance – 86.87 - 89.12 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at oil on the daily chart. Since price started to week with a sharp gap higher, we are continuing to watch these new levels and whether they will become set on the medium or long term. Demand worries and peak price were a concern not too long ago as we saw prices move down to around the $82 level. Has this rally been a flash in the pan, and will sellers fill the gap? Or Has the dynamic changed in the short term, and could we see a new move from buyers to lock in these highs and re-test $89? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
Crude trader - trying to price certainty in conflict The high on our Brent crude price has been $89.68 – hit at midday – but while our clients are long of crude (65% of open interest is held long), we’re seeing better sellers in the broader market, as we roll towards EU trade. The early rally felt reasonably orderly, but a lot of questions were being asked and without many immediate answers to obtain the certainty we crave as market participants - so naturally in this backdrop we get outsized moves, as a lack of clarity causes dispersions in price. When it comes to knowledge most market participants are now military experts and have quite poor knowledge of Middle East relations – again this makes it harder to price risk. Our US crude price sits up 3.8%, off the earlier highs of $87.45 and holds the 50-day MA – should EU/UK traders come in and buy the slight intraday dips then $89.03 is the level to watch topside for supply. It could go either way, but on balance I favour selling into intraday rallies. Today been some reversal after the recent drawdown in crude into $82 – positioning played a big part in that run, but we had seen signs that the Saudis may look at increasing production at year-end. We had even seen positive steps at a geopolitical level; brokered by the US, an agreement that Saudi would recognize Israel and as MBS said, forge “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War”. Instead of this positive backdrop, we have seen a 180-degree turn with Hamas's attack on Israel, with the market now questioning if we could see engagement with Hezbollah and Lebanon. With President Biden standing firm with Israel, the view is Iran’s oil exports which have been growing will be cut. If we look at Crude ‘time spreads’ – that is, front-month crude futures – June 2024 futures - we see this +$0.97, so modestly higher – if we really felt like Saudi production was going to get impacted by the unfolding situation then this would higher still. If in doubt, switch gears and head to Nat Gas which is building on the recent breakout and looks like it may start to bull trend.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by Pepperstone
Dirty practices of corporate forecasts portrayed in the mediaOn Tuesday, we touched on the subject of corporate forecasts in the oil market portrayed in the media. In fact, we remarked how the recent announcements of ultra-bullish forecasts were very reminiscent of the 2022 oil market top and that we were pretty skeptical about the rally's sustainability (though we warned about this on a different platform three weeks sooner). Fast forward to today, and we can see that oil is down from nearly $95 a week ago to less than $84 today (down more than 12%). With this price action following recent upgrades for the oil price by various financial entities, we would like to point out a few similar news articles in the past, which often preceded the trend reversal to the opposite direction of the forecast. While we can only speculate whether it is intentional or not, we have seen these practices taking place for years, with big players coming to tell retail investors to buy near the market top or sell near the market bottom. The following presentation aims to advocate that one should always do their own research rather than rely on the opinion of others whose true intent or trading strategy is unknown. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows some of JP Morgan’s forecasts in the past year or so, written as articles published by various media outlets (keep in mind that we are not showing all of the forecasts; there were some that were actually fulfilled). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays more corporate forecasts from JP Morgan. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
20