WTI REMAINS STABLEOil prices remained stable on Monday amid volatile trading as investors weighed global demand concerns against political instability in Russia, which could worsen supply disruptions. Brent crude futures rose slightly to $73.88 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures fell to $69.08 a barrel. The withdrawal of Russian mercenaries in averted clash raised questions about President Putin's grip on power and potential oil supply disruption. Russian turmoil presents a risk to supply shortages, coupled with Saudi Arabia's output cut, declining U.S. production, and the end of U.S. strategic reserve releases. Last week, both Brent and WTI prices dropped by 3.6% on worries of higher U.S. interest rates and China's underwhelming economic recovery.
Both RSI and MACD remain indecisive regarding the future movement of the instrument. As a support level can be considered prices of 69.61 and 69.25 further down the line. As a pivot point may be considered the price of 69.83, from where the instrument might try to reach a target of 70.18
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Crude
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/27/23For Tuesday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.92 is attainable within the week, possibly yielding 77.00 within 2-3 weeks.
Upside Tuesday, 70.67 can contain session strength, while closing above 70.67 signals 72.92 within 2-3 days, where the market can top out through the balance of the week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.00 within 3-5 more days.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.67 within the week, 62.14 longer-term support within 1-2 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity
USDWTI H8 - Long SignalUSDWTI H8
Waiting patiently to see this support price of $67/b region to trigger. Solid range from this support price, up towards that resistance price of $73.50, healthy $6 range and 9-10% price fluctuation held since the start of May. Hopefully this continues to remain active and we can continue milking these zones and ranges.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/26/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 82.21 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 62.14 indicates 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.
Upside, a weekly settlement above 82.21 indicates 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs.
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For Monday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.87 attainable within the week, possibly yielding 76.91 within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Monday, 70.67 can contain session strength, while closing above 70.67 signals 72.87 within 2 - 3 days, where the market can top out through the balance of the week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 76.91 within 3 - 5 more days.
Downside Monday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.67 within the week, 62.14 longer-term support within 1 - 2 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
Update #OIL #WTI #OOTTI do not have a good explanation of what has happened in crude and have to fall back to the previously outlined expanding diagonal scenario. This is weak, however, because it is supposed to be rare.
If it proves to be the case the price will take off with acceleration and the move up will be a 3 wave move like illustrated.
UKOILBig risk and I do not advise it. This is something I have been watching from a distance for months, so no I want to try what I have been figuring out with OIL.
I'm only posting because I need it for records and learning material for myself in-case this goes sideways, even when you look the RR is very bad but this is how far my strategy for oil has brought me.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/22/23For Thursday, the 67.65 - 67.08 region can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 74.29 remains a weekly target, 76.88 attainable within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Thursday, 72.36 can contain intraday strength, while pushing/opening above 72.36 allows 74.29 intraday, able to contain session strength.
Closing today above 74.29 signals 76.88 within several more days, where the market can top out through next week, possibly into later July.
Downside Thursday, breaking/opening below 69.67 allows 67.65 - 67.08 intraday, able to contain selling through next week and the area to settle below for indicating 62.14 longer-term support as a 1 - 2 week target
WTI CRUDE OIL: Short term buy as the 4H MA50 held.WTI Crude Oil rebounded yesterday upon hitting the 4H MA50 and as the 4H technicals turned bullish (RSI = 55.674, MACD = 0.250, ADX = 26.371), this is a buy opportunity on the short term. We are targeting the 1D MA100 (TP = 73.50), where we will place the first medium term short (TP = 68.00). The maximum technical extension for this year has been the 1D MA200, so if the 1D MA100 breaks, we will place our second short at 77.00 for an even higher return trade (again TP = 68.00).
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USOIL H4 | Overlap resistance overhead?USOIL (WTI) is rising towards an overlap resistance. Price could hit the sell entry at 73.315 and potentially reverse to drop lower. Take profit is at 70.110 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 74.341 which is an overlap resistance.
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USOUSD H4 | Rising into resistance?USOUSD is rising towards a key overlap resistance and could potentially reverse from here. We could see price move down to our take profit target.
Entry: 72.782
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 74.377
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance
Take Profit: 70.113
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/21/23For Wednesday, the 67.55 - 66.71 region can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 74.29 remains a weekly target, 76.78 attainable within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Wednesday, 72.36 can contain intraday strength, while pushing/opening above 72.36 allows 74.29 intraday, able to contain buying through the balance of the week.
Closing today above 74.29 signals 76.78 within several more days, able to contain buying through next week, possibly into later July.
Downside Wednesday, breaking/opening below 69.67 allows 67.55 - 66.71 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the area to settle below for indicating 62.14 longer-term support as a 1 - 2 week target.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/20/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 82.33 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 62.14 indicates 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.
Upside, a weekly settlement above 82.33 indicates 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs.
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For Tuesday, the 67.08 - 67.54 region can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 74.29 remains a weekly target, 76.68 attainable within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Tuesday, 72.40 can contain intraday strength, while pushing/opening above 72.40 allows 74.29 intraday, able to contain buying into later week.
Closing today above 74.29 signals 76.68 within several more days, able to contain weekly buying pressures, possibly into later July.
Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 70.49 allows 67.08 - 67.54 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the area to settle below for indicating 62.14 longer-term support as a 1 - 2 week target.
WTI CRUDE OIL aiming at the 1day MA100 for rejectionWTI Crude Oil / USOIL is rising inside the short term Channel Up after a Double Bottom.
The long term trend remains bearish inside a multimonth Channel Down.
The 1day RSI is showing the same bullish divergence (Channel Up) as in December- January that led to a Lower High rejection.
Buy on the short term and target the 1day MA100 at 74.00 and then sell and target the Rising Support at 67.50.
Previous chart:
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Pivot level separates sell from buy trade.WTI Crude Oil got rejected today exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the pivot level we have identified that determines the short term trade. The medium term pattern is a Megaphone and with both the 1D and 4H timeframes neutral (RSI = 52.099, MACD = -0.100, ADX = 28.689), we can easily realize that the price is exactly in the middle of the pattern, hence the Pivot.
We will buy if a 4H candle closes over the Pivot (71.05) and target the 1D MA100 (TP = 74.00). Similarly we will be selling as long as the candle closes under the Pivot and target S2 (TP = 64.00).
The RSI is trading inside a Triangle, whose top and bottom can help you take profit earlier if needed.
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USOILSPOT H4 | Hitting resistance?USOILSPOT is close to a key overlap resistance. Price could hit the sell entry at 70.942 and potentially reverse to drop lower. Take profit is at 68.194 which is a recent swing-low. Stop loss is at 73.357 which is an overlap resistance.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
USOUSD H4 | Stalled at 50% Fibo resistance?USOUSD is close to a key resistance and potentially reverse to drop lower from here. We could see price move down to our take profit target.
Entry: 70.918
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 72.952
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 67.344
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Crude Short oil make another bearish attemptThe price of crude oil is currently under bearish pressure below $70.00. No lower low printed on the daily chart yet in the previous bearish attempt. However, observing the candle close, there are more bearish candlesticks with strong momentum. It can be said that the sentiment is bearish and the bear traders have the upper hand. For now, traders should watch price developments by observing new higher high or lower low.
Today’s critical level to watch:
Support: $70.00, $65.00
Resistance: $77.13, $80.00, $85.00
WTI crude futures extended losses to nearly 5% to below $67 per barrel on Monday, the lowest in over five weeks, as concerns about weakening demand in top consumer China and rising Russian crude supply outweighed Saudi Arabia's plans to slash output. Russian oil exports to China and India rose to record levels in May even after the implementation of the European Union’s embargo and the Group of Seven’s price cap mechanism that started in early December. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced earlier this month its intention to reduce output by 1 million barrels per day to 9 million bpd in July, the lowest level in years amid an effort to bolster crude prices. Meanwhile, investors are cautious ahead of a busy week ahead with the US inflation rate and interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the BoJ.
WTI crude oil is trending lower inside a newly-formed falling channel on its hourly time frame. Price just broke through the mid-channel area of interest and is setting its sights on support around $68 per barrel.
Commodities like crude oil are currently being weighed down by dollar strength, as traders appear to be pricing in another Fed interest rate hike during the FOMC statement this week.
Prior to that, the US CPI is up for release, and a strong headline figure might be enough to ramp up hopes for a 0.25% increase in borrowing costs. Recall that the May NFP reading also beat estimates again, so the US central bank has some room to tighten.
Meanwhile, crude oil could also take cues from the API and EIA inventory numbers, as another draw in stockpiles might mean upside for the commodity. A build, on the other hand, might suggest that purchases are slow or that supply remains elevated.
Still, keep in mind that the OPEC+ announced voluntary output cuts, which could translate to lower global supply levels.
However, technical indicators are suggesting that a bounce is due soon. For one, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to show that bullish pressure is present and that support is more likely to hold than to break. Then again, crude oil is trading below both indicators, so these could hold as dynamic resistance levels on rallies.
Stochastic has been reflecting oversold conditions for quite some time, so turning higher would mean a return in bullish pressure. The oscillator has plenty of room to climb before reaching the overbought zone, so buyers could stay in control for a while.
RSI has also been lingering around the oversold area for a while, so a return in upside momentum might be due soon.
US Inflation Rate Seen Falling to 4.1%
The annual inflation rate in the US likely fell to 4.1% in May 2023, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April and 5% in March, mainly due to lower energy prices. On a monthly basis, the CPI is projected to increase by 0.2%, easing from a 0.4% rise in April. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to decrease to 5.3% from 5.5%, with the monthly rate projected to remain at 0.4%, the same as in April. The upcoming data precedes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday and is expected to strengthen the case for a pause in its tightening cycle.
The annual inflation rate in the US likely fell to 4.1% in May 2023, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April and 5% in March, mainly due to lower energy prices. On a monthly basis, the CPI is projected to increase by 0.2%, easing from a 0.4% rise in April. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to decrease to 5.3% from 5.5%, with the monthly rate projected to remain at 0.4%, the same as in April. The upcoming data precedes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday
and is expected to strengthen the case for a pause in its tightening cycle.
European Natural Gas Down after Last Week's Rally
Natural gas futures in Europe fell more than 6% below €30 per megawatt-hour, on some profit-taking after last week's 35% rally as investors weigh lower supplies against ample gas storage levels and weaker demand. Gas shipments from the US are becoming scarcer as the supply is funneled to Asia, where prices are more competitive in the summer months due to stronger demand for cooling. Meanwhile, Norway's Equinor has postponed the restart of its Hammerfest LNG plant to June 14 due to technical difficulties. Additionally, the Turkstream gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia through the Black Sea to Turkey, has been closed for maintenance work. Currently, Europe's gas storage is 70.4% full, and the European Union aims to achieve a storage inventory target of 90% by November 1.
Brent crude futures fell below $74 per barrel on Monday, as concerns about weakening demand in top consumer China and rising Russian crude supply outweighed Saudi Arabia's plans to slash output. Russian oil exports to China and India rose to record levels in May even after the implementation of the European Union’s embargo and the Group of Seven’s price cap mechanism that started in early December. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced earlier this month its intention to reduce output by 1 million barrels per day to 9 million bpd in July, the lowest level in years amid an effort to bolster crude prices. Meanwhile, investors are cautious ahead of a busy week ahead with the US inflation rate and interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the BoJ.
WTI CRUDE OIL hit the MA50 (4h). Ready for a break out?WTI Crude Oil is on the MA50 (4h) again after a week.
The Falling Resistance since the June 4th High is the critical level that will determine our trading plan.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price crosses and closes a candle over the Falling Resistance.
2. Sell for as long as it remains under it.
Targets:
1. 74.00 (expected contact with the MA100 1d).
2. 67.00 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) rebounded after getting oversold under 30.00, same as with the May 3rd and May 31st lows. Both hit the Rising Resistance.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
#OIL #OOTT UpdateI think I just decoded the oil chart. I have been contemplating a rise to $90+ because I expected ABC flat where I now see WXY combination of zigzag, zigzag and triangle. The chart now perfectly aligns with Brent where wave [ B] did make lowest low presumably shaping a symmetrical triangle whereas WTI is working on a running triangle.
That means that we have only strong push left upwards from current low which should come either as a straight impulse or an expanding diagonal which will be extremely annoying.
Oil: Can support survive? Today's focus: Oil
Pattern – Descending Triangle
Possible targets – 64.06 73.22
Support – 67.05
Resistance – 72.22 74.15
Hi, and thanks for looking at today’s update. Our attention is on oil after yesterday’s sharp selling took price back to key support. This level has held firm for buyers, but could this be the fourth time lucky for sellers? So far, production cut updates have done little more than spur on sellers.
Will we see buyers re-hold this level, or could we see a new break lower by sellers that gets the downtrend back on track?
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
Crude Oil on a Major Level of Support on the Daily timeframeCrude oil has revisited the significant daily support level at $67. The price has previously shown a strong rebound by respecting this support. There is a possibility of a bullish reversal taking place, potentially forming a triple bottom pattern. However, it is important to consider the alternative scenario where the price maintains a bearish sentiment. In this case, a bearish breakout below the support level could occur, leading to a decline below this level and potentially establishing a new low for the year 2023. Traders and investors should closely monitor the price action and market conditions to gauge the direction and strength of the crude oil market.