Crude
✅USOIL RISKY LONG🚀
✅USOIL is set to retest a
Strong support level below
After trading in a local downtrend from some time
Which makes a bullish rebound a likely scenario
With the target being a local resistance above
LONG🚀
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WTI bearish breakout coming soon?We're seeing an ascending support line hold prices just above the 72.72 support level. If price were to break this support level along with the ascending support line, we could see a big drop to major multi-swing low support at 61.97.
It's worth noting that there's a bearish ichimoku cloud that is pushing prices lower too with its bearish momentum.
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CRUDE to bounce too!Been a while since crude futures were reviewed, and since the last post, crude categorically dropped... but it maintained a decent range between 70-80/82. The thing about crude now is that it appears to be coiling and is starting to show signs of a break out.
Here is how I see it... the candlestick pattern (especially in the Daily chart, not shown here) is bullish, at least leaning towards bullishness. The MACD is aligning up, and the VolDiv is tapering but not crossed over yet. The MACD is forming that not so subtle anymore bullish divergence. Also noted that the TD Sequential is still in bullish primary trend mode (not shown here).
Now, to qualify a good break out, we need to set some parameters. 82 is the break out resistance level (green line) and this is about half of the range since August 2022. Coincidentally (or not), the 23EMA is at 81, and the weekly price needs to close above 81. And a really good break out (out of the yello box range) above 94 would be seriously bullish, although that might mean the Ukr-Russ conflict might have escalated.
Sidenote that the USD in a choke-hold and depreciating would help Crude rally up more.
Alternatively, a 23EMA failure, MACD cross under can happen as the VolDiv accelerates further into bearish territory. a close below 72 would favour the bear case.
Given the longer term view, it appears Crude is ready for a (surprise) bounce, and is likely to revisit the last low in December 2022, probably May-July 2023. While this is not obvious in the weekly chart, the Monthly chart TD Sequential indicates, so heads up.
Oil prices caught in dollar's game, ahead of NFPOil prices are like a game of poker right now, with players trying to figure out what everyone else is holding. There's the China reopening story, OPEC's card tricks, SPR releases and refills, and the dollar's royal flush. It's a high stakes game, but the pot is huge!
Traders are watching NFP and CPI data like hawks, looking for any tells that might indicate which way oil prices are headed. Powell's hawkish comments have only upped the ante, with the markets going all in on a 50-point rate hike. Will they be able to bluff their way to a win?
For now, oil prices are stuck in a tight range of 73.00 to 82.50, like a hand with no pairs or straights. But there's still hope for a lucky break! You could try raising the stakes by buying a bounce off of the 73.00 level or buying a break of the 82.50 level. If you're feeling lucky, why not both? A break above 82.50 could mean a jackpot, while a break below 73.00 could signal a bust.
So grab your lucky rabbit's foot and get ready to play the oil price game! Keep your eyes peeled for any new cards on the table and you just might hit the jackpot.
WTI Crude Short Jerome Powell momentum will correct the energy sector down before another leg up.
Still seeing triple digits WTI crude in 2023, this is just another swing.
TP 77.2
SL 82
USOIL, daily Crude oil opened lower on Monday mainly due to China setting a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year at around 5% “Premier Li Keqiang said on Sunday the foundation for stable growth in China needed to be consolidated, insufficient demand remained a pronounced problem, and the expectations of private investors and businesses were unstable.” Investors cautiously wait for the major publications coming from the States, especially the NFP later the same week. Hawkishness from the FED is not picking up just yet since the possibility of a single hike on the next meeting is currently just above 70% making the Dollar index to slightly decline boosting Crude oil’s price up overall in the last week.
On the technical side the price has recently broken above the resistances of the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level, the 50 and 100 moving averages as well as the bearish symmetrical triangle formation that was in effect since mid November 2022. This major correction to the upside was somewhat “paused” (at the time of this report) after the concerns of investors mentioned above.
In the event of a continuation of the bullish momentum then we might expect some resistance around the $80,50 area which is the upper band of the Bollinger bands and slightly above the psychological resistance of the round number. If the opposite happens and the price resumes its overall bearish movement then the first level of support lies around $77,50 which consists of an area on the chart where there are the 50 and 100 moving averages as well as the upper boundary of the triangle.
RIGHT ARM OF M PATTERN IS FORMING.... SELLWhen examining this asset, there is evidence of an M-pattern formation occurring across weekly, 4-hour, and 1-hour time frames.
Although the right arm of the M-pattern has not yet begun on the weekly timeframe, it is about to commence on the 4-hour timeframe. There is also a clear formation of the right arm of the M-pattern taking place on the 1-hour timeframe.
Aggressive traders may opt to enter using the 1-hour timeframe, while conservative traders may prefer to use the 4-hour timeframe. Conservative and long-term holders may choose to ride with the weekly timeframe.
Ultimately, the choice of timeframe depends on individual trading style.
Follow for more tips, and share your thoughts by commenting, liking, and sharing.
USOIL stuck between $70 and $82A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week later, the U.S. announced it would release 26 million barrels of crude oil into the market (in line with its mandate). However, based on the publicly available data, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves have remained unchanged since the start of 2023, at 371.58 million barrels. That indicates U.S. officials are waiting for a higher oil price at which they could unload their reserves at a profit. With the price of USOIL approaching $80 per barrel, this event might not be that far away. Our view has not changed; we still expect the oil price to stay choppy within the wide range for an unforeseeable future.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL within the wide range and two simple moving averages. Previously, we said that the flattening of these moving averages indicated a neutral trend.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
✅USOIL LOCAL LONG🚀
✅USOIL is going up currently
And the pair broke the key structure level
Which is now a support, and has made a pullback
And the retest, so I think the price will keep going up now
LONG🚀
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Crude long-term viewI count crude as wave circle C of a larger wave 4 that started in 2008. So far it looks like wave 1 of circle C is complete and crude is papering for a bounce in wave 2 (somewhere to 95-100 zone). Overall target for the larger wave 4 is in the 20-25 range. We then should expect a sharp rally to 200 level into 2027-28.
Crude oil is under pressure as FED becomes more hawkishThe latest higher than anticipated inflation had boosted yields of 30-year treasury bonds and probabilities of faster interest rate hikes.
That brings back the recession narrative to the markets, pushing Gold and Crude oil lower. As Crude oil is located near the important technical resistance, it may slide down toward $69-70 price area in response to the new market conditions.
easyMarkets WTI Oil Daily - Quick Technical OverviewWTI Oil continues to move sideways. We need a clear breakout through one of our levels in order to consider the next short-term directional move.
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✅USOIL SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG🚀
✅USOIL has been falling recently
And OIL seems locally oversold
So as the price is approaching
The horizontal support
Price growth is to be expected
LONG🚀
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Oil short view, monthly chart The oil price could fall below $50.0 if we break below the $60.00-$65.00 zone. I would not completely rule out a drop into the $30.00-$40.00 zone.
Range Trading Light Crude Oil-Crude oil is currently trading in a ranging market environment between 83.34 and 70.08 (larger range). Price is also in a smaller range between 82.66 and 72.46 (smaller range).
-From how I see the markets, the 10AM Feb 23 candle was a retest of a fair value gap before a move higher continues aiming between 79.73 and 81.50 price levels. I would like to see the fair value gap left open and not rebalanced completely.
-Bias: Bullish (within the ranges outlined only)
-Why? Some buyside liquidity will likely be rebalanced with a possible sweep to the upside to test the 83.00 level.
-Targets: 79.73-81.5, possibly up to 82.66 for a sweep.
Oil is range boundKeep it simple and play the levels as this plays our according to Rainbow Theory. We have a Range High and a Range Low marked by the pivots along with the rest of the tools showing you strength and exhaustion based on their colors.
CADCHF - waiting for the volatility explosion?CADCHF has been consolidating in a ever tighter range - but after such an extended period off sideways chop, are we ready for a more impulsive, momentum driven move?
We look at the fundamental variables that could see higher volatility and how crude also plays a key role
For now, traders will play mean reversion - but when the market reveals itself be dynamic and prepare to react.
✅USOIL KEY LEVELS📊
✅USOIL made a pullback
From the resistance 1
At around 83$ and went down
So I think it will retest
The horizontal support 1
At 72.3$ . Some other
Key levels are the support 2
At around 70.3$ and
The resistance 2 at 93.7$
ANALYSIS📊
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WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil.
On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63
In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03
Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Mid Term Outlook
Current we can see Crude Oil's price action is in the middle of a consolidation correction.
After from the initial push down from the price, market begin to form a larger structure to correct the down move.
We can see now with a few swing highs and lows, a parallel channel like structure is being created.
However, it looks like theres a potenital short term move up first to the top of the structure, before the bigger down move can begin.
For now, its best to wait and see whether we can see a short term up move first, and if it does,
the bigger play is for the downside if the reveral bearish price action is confirmed on the lower time frame.
Thank you
Jojo
