Crude
Crude Oil Continues To Slide Downward - $55~65 on target.Did you follow my research from late October/early November?
So many people thought Crude Oil would climb higher on supply concerns (related to Winter/Europe). But here we are sliding below $75 (soon) and targeting the mid-$60s.
My call from October was that we may see $64 to $67 as a base. Now, I'm thinking we may see $54 to $57 as a base.
What is going to prompt demand for Oil when the world is struggling with post-COVID inflation and the US is in the early stages of a moderate recession?
The post COVID commodities recovery phase pushed Crude well above $110 for a while, but now we are starting to transition back to "normal" in terms of true supply/demand.
In my opinion, Crude will settle between $55 ~ $65, then attempt to find some support.
Follow my research.
US OIl Trend Analysis 25/11/2022After Saudi Arabia denied a report that it was discussing an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies, there are now reports that they will promise additional measures to ensure oil market stability.
Saudi and Iraqi energy ministers have been reported saying that there is an importance of working within the OPEC+ framework. as a consequence, oil rose in early trade on Friday despite the worries about Chinese demand and expectations due to the increase of covid in the nation: China's Covid infections hit record as economic outlook darkens.
Look at what happened to CrudeEnergy prices traded sharply lower as news was released that the proposed cap on Russian oil export prices will not be binding on output.
Overnight, Brent reversed strongly, breaking below the 88.00 price level to test the key support level of 83.93. Brent could retrace briefly before trading lower toward the next key support level of 80.00.
Similarly, WTI reversed from the 82.00 price area to reach the key support area of 77.00. Although the price has rebounded to the 77.88 price level, further downside can be expected, with the next key support level at 75.33.
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKCrude Oil benchmark WTI broke its previous established support at 81.75 and continued its downtrend through Wednesday after G7 talk for implementing a price cap on Russian supply. The mark cap of 65-70 USD per barrel was higher than the market expected, which elevate some of the fears of supply distribution of the oil. Another positive news for the global oil supply is that Chervon Corp. might expand operations in Venezuela.
Both MACD and RSI technical indicators are confirming the downtrend with MACD histogram below the 0 line and RSI below the 50 neutral line.
If the trend continues the price might try to reach levels of 73.65 or even 70.47 In the opposite scenario, the price might revert and test its resistance at 81.75
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USOIL Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL plunged down from the
Horizontal resistance just as I predicted
And will soon retest the horizontal support
So despite my mixed bias on oil
I think the price might rebound
From that level again
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
Reseal on oil; BUY on crude oil DRAWDOWN THEN REBOUND ON OIL
By Jahnae Braxton | Divine 3nergy
Crude Oil fell a little more than 400 pips yesterday. Oil opened the day just around $79 a barrel on 11/21. Falling below $80 a barrel for the first time since a month prior on October 22. Price has reached over $90 a barrel in the month of November on the 7th. The last time it reached above $90 a barrel was October 7, 2022. A double bottom began to form last month, which was indicating a sell. The double bottom completed formation yesterday, October 21, 2022. Afterword’s, it immediately wicked off that demand zone and skyrocketed. The bullish momentum push was caused due to Beijing announcing they are experiencing Covid deaths. They haven’t seen Covid deaths in a few months. They are going back to COVID lock down procedures. This is bringing supply fears into oil. What also caused the surge in oil prices were rumors stated Saudi Arabia was going to raise oil production. Saudi Arabia has reported that they will not increase oil production. Oil production will continue with its 2 million barrels a day decrease that was decided last month and to continue to the end of 2023.
OPEC plus meets on December 4 to decide oil production. This comes a day before the European Union ban on Russian imports is set to start. Along with a G-7 price Cap.
I am estimating oil to reach the price mart of $83-$85 this week into next week.
Observing this setup for the following 6-8 monthsThe winter is coming and global tensions are still rising, the war in eastern europe is not even yet in the phase where both parties are willing to sit down. It could be a long and bloody winter for Europe.
I believe oil futures have been going down based on recession fears, but with signs that China will re-open I believe this will be balanced out. I believe that we're still 2-3 winters away from a recession which could bring the oil price down.
Oil Outlook 2022 🛢️With global political tensions on the rise, the expectation for crude oil price seemed to be bullish across the mainstream media. Everyone seems to think that war=high crude oil prices. This is true. However OPEC+ just said they will likely be upping production in Jan 23 so price has been plummeting.
I was actually surprised that price wasn't moving higher yet before this announcement, however algobuddy was telling us on the weekly that it's still in bear mode so I have been weary of long positions on my short term charts. I try to stick with the overall weekly or monthly trend.
I also keep remembering when the US president said he'd like to see price of oil closer to $72 before he stops emptying reserves, and when a US president says something like this I like to think there are enough strings to pull that he can make it happen.
This seems to be working out, as price is almost down to that exact number now, especially after OPEC's announcement.
I do notice a broadening formation happing on the weekly chart right now around this area. This gives me the feeling that a big slingshot move up is coming. I'll keep my head on a swivel, but until we get a weekly algobuddy bull signal I am staying on the bear side for now.
IF the talk of WW3 turns more and more likely into becoming reality, then I will start to think of a move to the upside. IF weekly candle crosses and closes back above the algobuddy thick ribbon line then I'll turn bullish. It's already made a new low and peeked below the previous weeks bar and is now back above its low. This is bullish for me, however if price continues to make new lows and more production ramp announcements I will jump on shorts.
Looking forward to seeing how this week candle closes. If red, then we can see more downside move.
Stay solvent my friends 💪
AlgoBuddy
USOIL - Deteriorating outlook On 7th November 2022, USOIL broke above the short-term resistance at 93.61$ and peaked at 93.73$. However, a few hours later, the breakout became invalidated, and the price started to drift lower. For the subsequent ten trading sessions, the price kept declining approximately 16% to a low of 77.24$ on the last Friday; before closing at 80.14$ that same day.
In April 2021, we stated the oil market peaked, and the price was headed to 90$ in the long term, which was hit four months later. In addition to that, we provided several more short-term and medium-term price targets until the volatility started to pick up in late summer.
Because of this elevated volatility, we announced that we would abstain from setting more price targets, except for a long-term one at 70$. Now, with the recession in full progress and the deteriorating outlook for the oil market, we are starting to reconsider the timestamp on our price target.
We are considering updating the price target to medium-term (and potentially short-term after a while) depending on more oil market developments. With that being said, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and the possibility of more SPR releases, which would lead to lower oil prices. Additionally, we will monitor the narrative of OPEC and other energy institutions for more oil market data that could suggest lesser oil demand and oil demand growth going forward.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD broke below 0 points, which is very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Although the trend remains weak,
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CRUDE Oil down trending again... Crude weekly points to more downside. Breaking below 76, would be bad news and 67 would be the downside target at the end of the year.
Technical indicator, MACD crossed down in bearish territory, and the VolDiv indicator turned red as it heads to the zeroline. Very dangerous when it does this...
Expect more downside to the last low at 76. Critical support level there.
WTI Crude Oil: Are we following BTC's previous top? 18/05/22 Shown is an overlay of Bitcoin's previous top ~$69k. We are showing very similar price action of a wide, heavy range at highs, with the micro lower highs on the underside signalling a continuation / blow off top spike is possible.
Product supply is increasing from several refineries opening from maintenance alongside seasonal demand, allowing for the current upward pressure. Longer term problems for crude oil range from high consumer energy prices to a declining SP while $ strengthens. Several COVID spikes globally also once again pose a risk.
This is a fractal that I have been keeping my eye on for quite some time, and is one that I have seen on several assets, across several timeframes.