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Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2"My previous call on natural gas made Sept. 19 has come to fruition, achieving all three targets, and in a shorter than expected period of time: Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer The question I've asked myself for the last few days is simply: Now that the June lows have been taken out, is it time for a reversal? And frankly, I don't believe a (sustained) reversal is imminent, mostly because I really do believe $18 NG1 is incoming and these market makers, who are total maniacs, will not make it so easy for one to go long. Things to keep in mind when we're so close to the end of the month and major lows have been achieved: 1. Look out for bounces as monthly candle wicks are painted 2. Look out for monthly candle highs to be painted in the first days/weeks of November 3. Big volume gaps between $6.3 and $5. "It's only 23%!" 4. Big bounce from $4.9 to $5.3 June lows are likely Trendlines are astrology, for real. Stop believing in them. No banks and no trading floors at Shell, Exxon, Aramco, Gazprom, are sitting there thinking of what to do with billions of dollars of inventory and drawing a diagonal line between two lows and thinking to themselves about such and such "support." That is truly absurd. Yet, you should pay attention to these things because, to the contrary, they're used to fleece dumb money. The markets revolve around fleecing dumb money, and there are entire funds with billions of dollars of dumb money. To put this trendline into perspective, although it looks reasonable on the 4H, look how absurd this is on the monthly: That being said, it's also reasonable on the 1W and 1D charts: & We are notably at that point, below the psychological $5 level and more or less at the trendline, and at the end of the month. When June made its Armageddon move downwards it came right as the monthly contract closed, so I personally do not expect a repeat of the same situation. I think a bounce to $5.3 is more or less inevitable, and I suspect rather than break through it and act like Silver/Gold/WTI has retracing to newer highs, it will bounce off the low and manufacture the kind of "resistance" found in technical analysis books to encourage late shorts. Early November may actually show us a more bullish impulse back to $6, but keep in mind that to get back to that mid-October weekly gap would more or less fill the entire October monthly bar with a November wick, so that gap is likely a breakaway gap that will stay in place for some time. Anyways, what I expect to see is after some retrace to catch late shorts and squeeze and break them, as well as to exploit early bulls, we will see a retrace, one that won't last long and will probably be quickly accompanied by another breakaway gap. I believe that natural gas will, in a very quick period of time, actually print a number as low as $2.9, a move that will be accompanied by WTI also setting new lows and approaching $50, as I noted in a recent call: WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict Europe has already filled their coffers with $9-10 US LNG delivered via boat and until they need to refill the barrels in a few months after Freeport is re-opened, prices should be suppressed as producers and funds get net long on energy. The reason is, problems between NATO and Russia and problems between the World and the Chinese Communist Party under the new found "Emperor" Xi and his delusional miscalculation to stay attached to Marxist-Leninism and communism will lead the Party to either attack Russia alongside NATO or to pinch both Russia and NATO with an assault on Taiwan. Energy will be _extremely_ expensive everywhere once the global conflict breaks out. But as with all such moves, first come lows that are more uncomfortable than early bulls and scared bears are comfortable with. 2023 will not be a pleasant year, so make sure you do your utmost to have a proper Christmas with your family and act like a good person. Whoever you are who is reading this, what I want to tell you is this: If you want a future, you need to start by first rejecting communist culture, especially all things Marxist-Leninism. Next, you need to reject the Chinese Communist Party, for it is guilty of the crime of live organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong and will be purged by history. Third, you need to start to emphasize virtue and improve your conduct and morality on a foundation of traditional human culture. I am not talking about dogma, and I am not talking about religion. Both of those are totally useless. I am talking about a rational understanding of what it means to be "a human being," the things that have allowed this civilization and this cycle of history to persist over the last 5,000 years, founded on the back of the Chinese dynasties. There are so many lessons in history. I hope that whoever has the fortune to encounter my words can walk out of the catastrophe. But if your thoughts are unrighteous, then if you can't, you can't. Regrets, however, will be no help at all. It's just like poker: you have to figure it out and have your bets placed before the cards are turned face up. Once the truth is revealed, everything is fixed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
14
CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 7676 Pivot: 6764 Support: 5832 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price head back up to retest the pivot at 6764, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head back down towards the support at 5832, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Genesiv
USOIL: Remaining Stubborn within the RangeUSOIL has managed to stay slightly above the PCZ of a Bearish Butterfly as well as to not break down any trendlines and avoid the bottom of the Range; However, Despite how strong it may look it still has dailed to break structure and it has been showing lots of Bearish Divergence. So long as the range holds i suspect that we will trade back below the 1.618 and eventually go for the Bearish Break Down Targets that could lead to a Bearish 5-0 to take us down to Atleast $56.27.
TVC:USOILShort
by RizeSenpai
1
Crude oil a leading inflation indicatorTwo observation made the last two years between crude oil and CPI: 1) There were 5 waves up and 2) 3 significant peaks However, between the last 2 peaks of crude, it was a lower low follow-by its downtrend, and CPI followed this downtrend subsequently. Among many commodities, crude oil moves the most in tandem with CPI, but crude seems to lead in this study. Refer to the daily chart on your own, try drawing a downtrend line, you will see crude oil prices has broken above its downtrend line recently. If crude oil is going to transit to an uptrend from here, we will have to track CPI very closely. The inflation fear is still there. Did a video on this observation last week, refer to the link below. Crude Oil Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.01 = $10 0.10 = $100 1.00 = $1,000 10.00 = $10,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
2
WTI Outlook 20/01/2023WTI remains firmer for the second consecutive week even if the intraday buyers retreat during early Friday morning in Europe. That said, the black gold slides to $80.95 while paring the daily gains by the press time. In doing so, the energy benchmark takes clues from the recent stabilization of the US Dollar, as well as hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. On the same line could be the headlines suggesting the US recession and higher crude oil inventory build in the US.
TVC:USOIL
by OAurthor
1
WTI OIL: Rising on the 4H MA50Crude Oil is rising strongly today on the 4H MA50, recovering from yesterday's rejection on the 1D MA100. Both the 4H and 1D time frames turned bullish technically (RSI = 60.309 & 60.309, MACD = 0.770 & 0.890, ADX = 36.187 & 25.146 respectively) as the price is approaching R1. This is a strong Resistance Zone that has been intact for 2 months. On it is the HH 1 trend-line, which has three Higher Highs already. The bullish trigger is above 83.40 with TP the R2 at 87.50. The bearish trigger is the 4H MA50 and HL 2 with TP HL 1 and S2. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
2
US OIL- Pt.3- Keep extendingIn our first post about oil we explained why we believe that Oil will conclude cycle wave 2 around the 57-63 area. We now believe it to be likely to complete the above triangular pattern before dropping more. The upper trendline of the triangle is confluent with the order block. To allow our stop loss to be extended to 81 respecting our risk managment rules, we closed half of the position. Our total loss for this position up to now is 0.7% of equity, so we are allowed to risk 0.8% more. Current stop loss is at 81 for 0.6% risk.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by GMR-Capital
CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 7676 Pivot: 6764 Support: 5832 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 5832, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head back up to retest the pivot at 6764, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by Genesiv