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US OIL- Pt.3- Keep extendingIn our first post about oil we explained why we believe that Oil will conclude cycle wave 2 around the 57-63 area. We now believe it to be likely to complete the above triangular pattern before dropping more. The upper trendline of the triangle is confluent with the order block. To allow our stop loss to be extended to 81 respecting our risk managment rules, we closed half of the position. Our total loss for this position up to now is 0.7% of equity, so we are allowed to risk 0.8% more. Current stop loss is at 81 for 0.6% risk.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by GMR-Capital
CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 7676 Pivot: 6764 Support: 5832 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 5832, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head back up to retest the pivot at 6764, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by Genesiv
A traders’ week ahead playbook – the BoJ gets the full focus Having returned from three weeks of annual leave with a renewed focus, it feels like the transitioning market expectations and positioning from a hard-landing economic scenario to one that is less bad one still has legs, and the positive risk sentiment should hold for now, although we must be prepared to react to changes in sentiment and price. The drivers; EU Nat gas falling to the lowest levels since late 2021, a major factor behind some positive economic upgrades to EU GDP. China’s more aggressive re-opening promoting strong trending conditions in CN50, HK50, copper, USDCNH, crude and gold. While much of the US hard data is holding up well and a belief the survey data may positively converge higher, and this comes amid a slight decline in nominal and real rates. The easing of US financial conditions does pose a risk ahead of a raft of Fed speakers this week, some of whom may want to keep the option of a 50bp hike on the table, at a time when US hard data is still robust, and the labour market is in fine health. Another big volatility driver would be if the BoJ disappoints market expectations and leaves policy unchanged for now – I’d argue after last week’s moves below 128.00 in USDJPY, and Japan 10yr swap rates into 1%, there is a skew in expectations/positioning towards either shifting the yield target band to 0.75% or even 1%, perhaps even abolishing altogether, but maintaining a commitment to buy bonds through QE. Some say this latter action is too soon after the changes that we saw on 20 Dec, but for me, the question is why wait? There is increasing inflation in Japan, political pressure to end YCC and the markets are consistently testing the BoJ – most importantly, the JGB market remains highly dysfunctional and the BoJ is having to buy far more bonds than the JPY9t p/m they detailed they would buy in December. 1-week USDJPY implied vols are sky-high, so this highlights the risks to JPY positioning for traders – position sizing here will keep you in the game. Where is the balance of risks? Given expectations, I see downside risks this week for the JPY and while the trend is for a stronger JPY, as a risk manager I would be looking to part cover JPY longs into the BoJ meeting. For now, though, there are big moves and trends across markets – the preference is to take a systematic approach - over a tactical one – and look for continuation in the moves in the USD, gold, NAS100, CN50, XAU, crypto and crude. That is, at least until we see price close below/above the 5-day EMA or a 3- & 8-day EMA crossover, which could highlight a loss of momentum and promote a change in order book dynamics. So, what are the known event risks for the week ahead? US Q4 earnings – it’s a quiet week on the US Corp. reporting front, where we see just 5% of the S&P500 market cap hitting us with numbers, with the reporting calendar really heating up next week. Of the company's reporting, Netflix (report after market on Thursday / 8 am Friday AEDT) should get the lion's share of attention from clients. Consider that Netflix’s implied move on the day of earnings is 8.6% and with a creep higher in recent price action into $332, this is a one for the equity traders. Central bank speakers – I will be looking closely at the 9 Fed speakers this week, as well as 7 ECB speakers, who will hit the wires through the week. On the Fed front, Lael Brainard (20 Jan at 05:15 AEDT) and John Williams (20 Jan 10:35 AEDT) get the most attention for possible loose guidance for a step down in future rate hikes to 25bp at the 2 Feb FOMC meeting. Given the bearish trend in the USD, there are risks the Fed speakers push back on these easing of financial conditions – so Fed speeches pose a risk in some of the price trends taking place across markets. So, what are the known event risks for the week ahead? MONDAY • Martin Luther King Day – no US cash equity trading, partial trading on the session in futures. TUESDAY • China high-frequency data dump (all data points due out at 13:00 AEDT) - Industrial production (consensus at 0.2%), retail sales (-9.5%), fixed asset investment (5%) and Q4 GDP (1.6%) – the market holds conviction in its view of a positive turn in the data around the start of Q2, on the back of the reopening measures and stimulus announced – so this data series is in the review mirror and I would not be too concerned with holding copper, SpotCrude, AUD, CNH or China equity exposures over this data point and do not expect it to move markets too intently. • UK employment data (18:00 AEDT) – hard to see this causing too much in the way of GBP vol, but worth having on the radar if trading the GBP. As such, we see GBPUSD 1-week options implied vol at the 21st percentile of its 12-month range. Average weekly earnings are expected to push to 6.2% (from 6.1%), while the 3m U/E rate is eyed unchanged at 3.7%. • German ZEW survey (21:00 AEDT) – With the improvement seen in some of the EU data flow of late, and EU Nat Gas trading to the lowest levels since Dec ‘21, the market expects the ZEW survey of expectations to improve at -15 (from -23.3 in the Dec read). Not expecting the data point to materially move the EUR and it should confirm the markets-held view that things are far less bad in Europe. WEDNESDAY • BoJ meeting (no set time) – the marquee event risk of the week. After last week’s report in Yomiuri, the market is fiercely watching to see the actions from the BoJ. There are increasing expectations the BoJ could either alter its YCC (yield curve control) program, where they contain the 10-yr JGB at a yield of -/+0.50%, potentially taking it out to 0.75%, or even abolish it altogether – possibly replacing YCC with QE and a commitment to buy JGBs. USDJPY and JPY implied volatility is at the highest levels since May 2020, so it’s a big week for the JPY and JPN225. Clearly, the BoJ have no choice but to stop the YCC program, but whether that happens this week or at some point in the next couple of meetings is up for debate – if they abolish YCC the JPY could fly. Conversely, if they don’t alter/abolish YCC and change the maturity of the yield target (to say the 5yr JGB) then we could see big JPY weakness. • UK CPI (18:00 AEDT) – the market sees headline inflation coming in at 10.5% (from 10.7%) and core inflation at 6.2% (6.3%). A 50bp hike from the BoE at the Feb meeting looks likely at this stage, so we’d need a really weak print to bring rates pricing below 40bp. Fundamentally, the GBP screens relatively unattractive vs other G10 currencies, with long EURGBP a big consensus trade in play. Eyeing the price action in this pair I have no major conviction but see an elevated risk of a move lower into 0.8800, where I’d be looking for better buyers. • EU Dec CPI (21:00 AEDT) – this is a revision from the recently announced 9.2% YoY print on headline and 5.2% on core. Unless there is a big change then this shouldn’t move the EUR too intently. We see a 50bp hike priced for the 2 Dec ECB meeting and terminal rats pricing around 3.3% later this year. THURSDAY • US PPI (00:30 AEDT) – the market expects US Dec PPI inflation to fall from 7.4% to 6.8% - typically PPI is far less impactful than CPI, but the correlation with corporate earnings is higher. In a market hellbent on watching inflation metrics, the PPI print holds modest risks for USD and US equity positioning. • US Dec retail sales (also 00:30 AEDT) – with US Q4 GDP tracking above 3% and traders positioning away from a hard landing growth scenario, retail sales could influence this growth debate – the market sees a 90bp decline (MoM), with the ‘control group’ element eyed at -0.4%. Bad numbers, relative to expectations, will weigh on the USD here, although I am not expecting this to be a big volatility event. • Australia Dec employment report (11:30 AEDT) – the market expects 22.5k jobs to be created, with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.4%, on a participation rate of 66.8%. Rates markets are yet to be fully convinced of a 25bp hike from the RBA on 2 Feb, so a hot jobs number and it could push pricing closely to the full 25bp. The current terminal rates pricing sits close to 3.7%. Happy to hold AUD exposures over the jobs report event, as the AUD holds a close relationship with copper, China equity and broad risk sentiment than domestic factors. AUDCAD is on the radar and the momentum suggests risks for a further push higher to 0.9400. FRIDAY • Japan national CPI (10:30 AEDT) – the national print comes after the more forward-looking Tokyo CPI print, subsequently, the market expects Japan CPI to come in at 4% (from 3.8%). The CPI also print comes after the BoJ meeting, so depending if the BoJ acts decisively on Wednesday, the influence may be muted. • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate decision (12:30 AEDT) – while the broad consensus is that the PBoC will leave policy unchanged, it would not surprise to see we could see a slight cut of 10bp in the prime rate. The market also is on edge for a further easing of the RRR (reserve ratio requirement), an outcome that would increase the level of liquidity into the economy and be a further positive for Chinese equity markets and the AUD Good luck to all
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 81.06 Pivot: 73.40 Support: 74.33 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 81.06, where the previous highs are. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 74.33, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Genesiv
Crude oil WTI: Downside contained?Oil WTI failed to break over the 50-day moving average during the session on January 3, and sellers returned after the price topped $80 per barrel. This resulted in a rapid drop to $73/bbl, making it an interesting area to assess the strength of buyers on dips once again. Remember that the US is actively purchasing crude oil at 67-72 dollars per barrel range in order to replenish its strategic reserves (SPR), which have fallen to their lowest level since 1983. The level of $70/bbl generated a double bottom between December 9 and December 12, 2022, luring buyers at those prices. In the coming weeks, the market may retest those levels or even hit $69-68.5/bbl (December 21, 2021 lows). In such a case, the RSI may show a bullish divergence since it will not fall as low as it did at the December 9 price lows. Thus, the short-term scenario may still have another leg down, albeit the proximity to the purchasing window may limit bearish pressure. A fresh rise over $80/bbl (the 50DMA and the negative trendline from June to November 2022) would open up new positive prospects towards $84/bbl (23.6% Fibonacci) first and $90/bbl (psychological and highs of November 10, 2022) afterwards.
TVC:USOIL
by Capitalcom
2
USOIL - Getting Slippery 💧Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. on MONTHLY: Left Chart USOIL is sitting around a strong support zone 70.0 - 75.0 , so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. 🏹 on H1: Right Chart For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the previous major high in gray. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, USOIL can still trade lower inside the monthly resistance zone till around the 70.0 where we will be looking for new buy setups. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:USOIL
by TheSignalyst
3
Is Exxon Mobil prime for a trend reversal after 280% rally?On 8th November 2022, shares of Exxon Mobil reached a high of 114.66$, marking over a 280% increase since their lows in March 2020. The company has enjoyed this two-year lasting rally thanks to the growing prices of oil, which translated into growing corporate earnings during this period. However, with oil prices peaking in the first half of 2022 and worsening economic conditions around the globe, shares of XOM might be positioning themselves for a trend reversal. In addition to that, the U.S. government seeking to increase taxes on oil producers also does not help the situation. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action. We want to see the price break below the immediate support/resistance level and a pick-up in volume to support our thesis. With that outlined, we want to set a price target for XOM at 90$ per share. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of XOM. Volume can be seen declining for the past eight months while the price kept rising. That hints at fewer investors willing to buy the stock at elevated levels. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish but losing momentum Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of XOM and 200-day SMA. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:XOMShort
by Tradersweekly
58
Recession is poised to weigh on the oil demand and higher pricesSince our previous idea, USOIL broke above 80$ and halted its rise slightly below the 50-day SMA. After that, it faltered to 79$ handle where it currently trades. Meanwhile, we noticed bullish calls emerging all over the place. However, while we allow for the possibility of a further price increase, we do not think it will be as dramatic as many people forecast. At this point, we are very skeptical about the narrative claiming a retest of 100$ and continuation of the rally beyond this price level. That is because economic activity shows a significant decline in 2022. Furthermore, as if it was not enough, economic activity is poised to slump even more in 2023, with signs of a recession on the horizon. As a result, we expect the economic slowdown to weigh heavily on the oil demand. It would not surprise us to see the U.S. administration put more pressure on oil producers, prompting them to pump more oil out of the ground, especially if the prices continue to climb higher. In turn, that could offset some price increases and help to balance the market. Therefore, we are cautious and pay close attention to market developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement toward the 50-day SMA, which often coincides with a strong downtrend correction. In this case, the price failed to fully retrace and break above the 50-day SMA, which may hint at signs of exhaustion for the rally. Therefore, we raise our level of cautiousness. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
20
Recession concerns and a stronger USD sends WTI back below $80WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle. Also note that previously the market has reversed lower around the 100-day EMA, yet here it is trying to turn lower around the 50-day EMA (which itself is below the 100-day EMA). A bearish divergence also formed on RSI ahead of the double top, therefore the bias is for another dip lower. A break of the September low assumes bearish continuation, and next support resides around 72.50 – 73.40. In light of seeking to ‘remain nimble’, we prefer to stick to intraday timeframes in line with the daily bias. Commitment of traders (managed funds) We can see that net-long exposure has been ticking higher on WTI for managed funds, but this is due to shorts being covered and not new longs being initiated in recent weeks. Given the negative sentiment then it’s plausible to suspect some of those bears will now be returning. But if or when we see gross longs increase and gross shorts decrease, we would be more confident in calling a bottom in oil. We’re just not there yet.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex