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Reseal on oil; BUY on crude oil DRAWDOWN THEN REBOUND ON OIL By Jahnae Braxton | Divine 3nergy Crude Oil fell a little more than 400 pips yesterday. Oil opened the day just around $79 a barrel on 11/21. Falling below $80 a barrel for the first time since a month prior on October 22. Price has reached over $90 a barrel in the month of November on the 7th. The last time it reached above $90 a barrel was October 7, 2022. A double bottom began to form last month, which was indicating a sell. The double bottom completed formation yesterday, October 21, 2022. Afterword’s, it immediately wicked off that demand zone and skyrocketed. The bullish momentum push was caused due to Beijing announcing they are experiencing Covid deaths. They haven’t seen Covid deaths in a few months. They are going back to COVID lock down procedures. This is bringing supply fears into oil. What also caused the surge in oil prices were rumors stated Saudi Arabia was going to raise oil production. Saudi Arabia has reported that they will not increase oil production. Oil production will continue with its 2 million barrels a day decrease that was decided last month and to continue to the end of 2023. OPEC plus meets on December 4 to decide oil production. This comes a day before the European Union ban on Russian imports is set to start. Along with a G-7 price Cap. I am estimating oil to reach the price mart of $83-$85 this week into next week.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.FLong
by UnknownUnicorn36761102
Observing this setup for the following 6-8 monthsThe winter is coming and global tensions are still rising, the war in eastern europe is not even yet in the phase where both parties are willing to sit down. It could be a long and bloody winter for Europe. I believe oil futures have been going down based on recession fears, but with signs that China will re-open I believe this will be balanced out. I believe that we're still 2-3 winters away from a recession which could bring the oil price down.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Owcheew8
Oil Outlook 2022 🛢️With global political tensions on the rise, the expectation for crude oil price seemed to be bullish across the mainstream media. Everyone seems to think that war=high crude oil prices. This is true. However OPEC+ just said they will likely be upping production in Jan 23 so price has been plummeting. I was actually surprised that price wasn't moving higher yet before this announcement, however algobuddy was telling us on the weekly that it's still in bear mode so I have been weary of long positions on my short term charts. I try to stick with the overall weekly or monthly trend. I also keep remembering when the US president said he'd like to see price of oil closer to $72 before he stops emptying reserves, and when a US president says something like this I like to think there are enough strings to pull that he can make it happen. This seems to be working out, as price is almost down to that exact number now, especially after OPEC's announcement. I do notice a broadening formation happing on the weekly chart right now around this area. This gives me the feeling that a big slingshot move up is coming. I'll keep my head on a swivel, but until we get a weekly algobuddy bull signal I am staying on the bear side for now. IF the talk of WW3 turns more and more likely into becoming reality, then I will start to think of a move to the upside. IF weekly candle crosses and closes back above the algobuddy thick ribbon line then I'll turn bullish. It's already made a new low and peeked below the previous weeks bar and is now back above its low. This is bullish for me, however if price continues to make new lows and more production ramp announcements I will jump on shorts. Looking forward to seeing how this week candle closes. If red, then we can see more downside move. Stay solvent my friends 💪 AlgoBuddy
NYMEX:CL1!
by QuantVue
USOIL - Deteriorating outlook On 7th November 2022, USOIL broke above the short-term resistance at 93.61$ and peaked at 93.73$. However, a few hours later, the breakout became invalidated, and the price started to drift lower. For the subsequent ten trading sessions, the price kept declining approximately 16% to a low of 77.24$ on the last Friday; before closing at 80.14$ that same day. In April 2021, we stated the oil market peaked, and the price was headed to 90$ in the long term, which was hit four months later. In addition to that, we provided several more short-term and medium-term price targets until the volatility started to pick up in late summer. Because of this elevated volatility, we announced that we would abstain from setting more price targets, except for a long-term one at 70$. Now, with the recession in full progress and the deteriorating outlook for the oil market, we are starting to reconsider the timestamp on our price target. We are considering updating the price target to medium-term (and potentially short-term after a while) depending on more oil market developments. With that being said, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and the possibility of more SPR releases, which would lead to lower oil prices. Additionally, we will monitor the narrative of OPEC and other energy institutions for more oil market data that could suggest lesser oil demand and oil demand growth going forward. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD broke below 0 points, which is very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Although the trend remains weak, Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bearish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
7
WTI Crude Oil: Are we following BTC's previous top? 18/05/22 Shown is an overlay of Bitcoin's previous top ~$69k. We are showing very similar price action of a wide, heavy range at highs, with the micro lower highs on the underside signalling a continuation / blow off top spike is possible. Product supply is increasing from several refineries opening from maintenance alongside seasonal demand, allowing for the current upward pressure. Longer term problems for crude oil range from high consumer energy prices to a declining SP while $ strengthens. Several COVID spikes globally also once again pose a risk. This is a fractal that I have been keeping my eye on for quite some time, and is one that I have seen on several assets, across several timeframes.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by fvideira
8
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Oil set for higher pricesTrade Idea: Buying Oil Reasoning: Head and shoulders setup still possible on the daily chart. Entry Level: 86.46 Take Profit Level: 92.66 Stop Loss: 83.43 Risk/Reward: 2.05:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OLong
by Signal_Centre
USOIL H2: BUY/HOLD XABCD setup 15% gains (SL/TP)(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -2000+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! USOIL H2: BUY/HOLD XABCD setup 15% gains (SL/TP)(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. Tagged as LONG as I expect more gains. READ ENTIRE IDEA BEFORE EXECUTION!!!! 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: USOIL 2hours candle chart review ::: speculative XABCD setup in progress ::: expecting correction/pullback after G20 ::: G20 meeting likely result in pullback MODE ::: higher risk setup: short from point C ::: near 92/94 USD TP BEARS 80 USD ::: this is higher risk setup use tight SL ::: BULLS remain on sidelines and wait ::: for correction to complete (point D) ::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD 80 USD / D ::: 80 USD is also a strong liquidity gap zone ::: BULLS should wait for a better price ::: TP1 BULLS 90 USD TP2 BULLS 93 USD ::: WAIT for price to pullback before buying ::: near 80 USD / liquidity zone /point D ::: shorting is a higher risk setup now ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: 80USD fresh demand zone ::: 92/94USD fresh supply zone 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS ::: Sentiment mid-term: BEARS/pullback RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:USOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
6
WTI oil - Global oil demand is set to fall with deeper recessionIn the recent past, we abstained from setting price targets for the short and medium term. Meanwhile, we became focused on the long-term price target of 70$, which stays in place as we continue to be bearish on USOIL. Our view is based on the deepening recession and falling oil demand. Yesterday, the IEA Executive Director, Faith Birol, said in his interview with Bloomberg during the COP27 summit, "The recent decision of OPEC+ to cut the production by two million barrels a day was definitely not helpful." Additionally, he said that this move by the cartel was fueling inflation in developing countries and may require a "rethink". If his words come true, the world could see temporary stabilization of USOIL prices between 80$ and 90$. However, all depends also on Joe Biden, who currently does not support more drilling activity. Since the stance of the U.S. administration might quickly change (with an even deeper recession and end of midterms) and send prices much lower, we pay close attention to the energy dispute between the U.S. and OPEC. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- are bullish but due to cross each other. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the hourly chart of USOIL and simple sloping support/resistance levels. Interestingly, the immediate sloping support was broken to the downside, which is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
14
CRUDEHello and welcome to this analysis UKOIL formed a Bullish Harmonic Gartley near $83.50 in weekly time frame and reversed from there. In the last few weeks after its 1st round of reversal from the Gartley PRZ it has formed a Cup pattern (rounding bottom) in daily time frame indicating a breakout above $98.50 for $106. While CRUDE OIL at MCX has formed an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern in daily time frame indicating a breakout above 7700 for 8200 and 8800. The movement in MCX Crude will largely be impacted by US$-INR also, keep in mind that factor also.
TVC:UKOILLong
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
$USOIL $97 short-term target 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Hello fellow traders and investors! My team isn't expecting oil/gas demand to slow down anytime soon. A long-term target of $132 and beyond is on the horizon. Ever since the war in Ukraine began the Biden administration has been trying their hardest to keep prices down by releasing war-time oil reserves periodically. This is a temporary solution, and my team believes that it will eventually lead to a blow off top. Raising interest rates seems to be the feds only solution to combating the situation, yet it has become evidently clear that they have no idea what to do and whether or not this will actually solve the issue. These are just our thoughts surrounding the situation and things could change quickly with the emergence of new information. We hope that this helps! !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:USOILLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
A traders week ahead playbook – China and US CPI the core themesCore macro themes traders need to roll with: • China reopening plans – after Friday’s incredible moves will the market buy the expected early weakness? Consider copper had a 4 standard deviation move on Friday (+7.6%) and the HShares closed its best week since 2015. • Central bank divergence is even more pronounced – several central banks have underwhelmed on hikes and in some cases, there was a slight shift in the communication - we see expectations of synchronized tightening reduced and bank's actions are becoming far less aligned – this should cement the idea of trending conditions in the price action and certainly in FX markets • Light at the end of the tunnel – the Fed to step down the pace of hikes to 50bp in December – this week’s CPI data and the suite of Fed speakers may influence this pricing – but peak core inflation/peak rates remain a key theme • Has the USD peaked – are we in a distribution phase? • How much juice has this new bear market rally got left? Is the equity melt-up real? The week ahead playbook Most have their eyes on US CPI this week, but trading China reopening is also front and centre and causing some incredible moves across markets – aside from a number of unsubstantiated tweets focusing on a reopening, there are multiple focal points for traders to sink their teeth into, including: • The US audit (PCAOB) of Chinese companies is speculated to be ahead of schedule, which could lead to a favourable decision on whether to delist Chinese ADRs – • Talk that China is to tweak rules of international flights bringing heavily infected passengers into the country – this includes removing the 2-day negative PCR proof needed for incoming passengers. • Germany detailed that China would make the mRNA vaccine available to foreigners living in China • Medical officials lowering the level of concern on Covid’s long-term effects on health In essence, the news flow, while consistent, has largely been of limited substance - the market, however, has taken the comments seriously enough to cover shorts and initiate longs for the more aggressive traders. Rightly so, China's re-opening is a game changer as it would clearly help reduce global inflationary pressures and catalyse a low in the synchronized global growth slowdown. If we consider the USD ‘smile’ theory, increased demand from China and improved supply chains suggests reduced demand for USDs and play into a view that the USD is putting in the process of a top. Weekend news is perhaps not so inspiring with the official rhetoric pushing back on reopening hopes, with authorities vowing to maintain “unswervingly” its stringent Covid Zero policy – galvanised by the daily covid case count which is pushing 3500 new cases. It will therefore be interesting to see if we see a reversal in a number of the Friday moves – notably where we saw the yuan rally over 2%, copper +7.6%, AUD +2.9%. gold +3.2% and HK50 +5.4%. The HShares had its best one-week gain since 2015. These are incredible moves, but what seems apparent is the market is living in the future and starting to price in a higher probability of a reopening – even if it is staggered and likely to occur in Q1 23. With the Fed the standout, and almost lone hawkish central bank, it’s not all about the Chinese market (and its second-order derivatives – such as the AUD), but the key event risk of the week is the US CPI print – core CPI is what gains the central focus with the consensus at 6.5%, and with the market just so used to above consensus prints it would shock to see a below estimate print. As part of the risk assessment, I question how this print reconciles with current market sentiment – ask yourself, do we get a bigger move in the USD on a below-consensus core inflation print, or a gain in the USD on an above-consensus print? Positioning is always a factor here, and the extent of the beat/miss, as well as the components – my own view is risky assets rally harder on a 6.3% core CPI print than a 6.7% core print – I know many will disagree. Gold is front and centre partly because Friday’s monster 3.2% rally took price up to channel resistance and the top Bollinger Band– this will happen when the USD is smacked 1.8%, and US 5yr real rates move 11bp lower. Clients have started to build a net short position into this resistance zone. Europe and UK also look interesting – Europe equity indices are on a tear (even when priced in USDs), EU Nat gas prices are down 66% from the August highs – Italian 10yr BTP spreads remain contained vs German bunds at 2.16% – the downtrend in EURUSD - drawn from the Feb highs – looks to be over and despite a barrage of bad news over the last 2 months is still printing higher lows. There is a China play in EU assets, but the momentum in EU and UK100 equity indices looks real, although the move is becoming overbought and suggesting buying weakness may be the better play. SpotCrude daily is one to focus on, with price into the 7 Oct highs and making some power plays on Friday – a break of $93.52 naturally puts $100 back on the radar, but again while this reflects the China reopening expectations, a higher crude price isn’t perhaps what the world needs now. Rates Review – we look at market pricing for the next central bank meeting and the step up (in basis points) to the following meetings Other known event risks for traders to navigate this week • US Oct CPI (11 Oct 00:30 AEDT) – The market expects a 7.9% YoY headline print, and 6.5% core inflation – The core measure is the more important of the two and obviously the most important data point for markets right now. The question – as always - do we get the bigger reaction on a below consensus number or above?? Consider CPI has come in above consensus in 10 of the past 12 reports • University of Michigan 5–10-year inflation survey (12 Nov 02:00 AEDT) – No change is expected at 2.9%, but we’ve seen this miss consensus before and move markets • US midterm election (Tuesday) – the Republicans are expected to win both the Senate and House which as I put it in the playbook has implications for future fiscal policy and the debt ceiling – however, what if the polls are wrong and the DEMs get a bigger advantage? The USD could push higher – one consideration is the timing of the results and whether we get a full understanding on the day of the election or further out the week. • Central bank speeches – it’s a huge week ahead for central bank noise – we see 9 Fed speakers, 18 ECB speakers and 7 BoE speakers. In Australia, RBA deputy gov Bullock speaks (9 Nov 20:05 AEDT) • The ECB will publish its economic bulletin (10 Nov 20:00 AEDT) – the forecasts could have a bearing on the perception of the ECB's economic projections due out in the December ECB meeting – could we be looking more intently at a recessionary forecast? • Japan Summary of Opinion (8 Nov 10:50 AEDT) – while the BoJ has held a consistent dovish line, the market will be watching to see if there are any hints at changes to its YCC policy in the future • China CPI/PPI (9 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – CPI is expected to drop to 2.4% (from 2.8%) – Covid policy remains the central focus, so this data point isn’t likely to move the yuan – we also get the money supply and new loans data this week (no set time)
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
1