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Crude

Crude Oil dropping contrary to fundamental expectations?. Crude Oil D1 4-9-22: - Fundamentally there are lots of reasons to expect higher prices - Seasonals and technicals however point to more downside Seasonal: - Seasonally Oil tends to be weak in Q4 - Weakness started earlier this year so might end earlier also (NOV-midterms ?) Pivot Points: - Monthly: Price is below SEP Monthly Pivot, heading for S2 = <80.00 - Quarterly : Q3 predicts a run from QPP to QS1 = Yearly Open = Monthly Range Low = 50% retrace of upswing = 75.00 VWAP: - Yearly VWAP has been broken lower - Quarterly VWAP in now in charge - Need a convincing break above QVWAP in order to turn bullish again Correlation: - CADJPY normally follows Oil closely, now big divergence - Divergence probably due to extreme YEN-weakness - Gives reason for a closer look into CADJPY .
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by xtrader1
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
1
A traders' week ahead playbook - energy markets to impact risk We start the week with a clear focus on the energy markets, with Russia’s response to the G7’s proposal for price caps, being the continued shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) pipeline. We have crude futures opening first up, and amid a shortened session - due to US Labor Day - the lower liquidity may exacerbate the moves – EU Nat gas resumes trade at 4pm AEST and markets will be watching closely for a spike higher. With European index futures tailing off 3% on the NS1 news and the NAS100 lower in sympathy, it feels like the probability of this negative flow resuming in Asia is high. The GER40 July lows beckon. The US payrolls report was solid enough but the rise in the participation rate (to 62.4%) made for a 20bp upside surprise in the unemployment rate. This saw a slight repricing of Fed rate expectations, and USD selling, where the FX move reversed once we saw equity markets being carved up on the NS1 news. Hard to bet too heavily against the USD and we’ll be watching for commentary from Powell and Brainard this week to guide. USDCNH could be central to the USD move, and a break above 6.93 suggests a real risk that we can talk 7.000 and this will likely impact EURUSD and AUDUSD. The ECB meeting will get good attention and we could see some vol in the EUR, not that we need a central bank meeting to promote that when we have the energy markets to do that for us. The GBP gets attention as the trend is strongly lower and the pair has fallen for 6 straight days, losing 6.3% since 10 Aug. A spike in energy this week is really the last thing the UK needs when they are facing 20% inflation in Q123, so it seems we could be on for 1.1400 sooner. Aside from the looming QT ramp-up, it’s another big week next ahead – global equities are in a tough spot right now and rallies are being sold in earnest – we’re going to need to see a far weaker US CPI print to promote some relief, but that is not out until next week – it feels like the path of least resistance is lower, with funds increasing portfolio hedging and buying volatility - a break of the 61.8% fibo of the June/Aug rally in the US500 will increase talk of revisiting the June lows. By way of known event risks, here are seven key focal points for the week ahead: • ECB meeting (Thursday 22:15 aest) – The market places a 64% chance of a 75bp hike, with the economist’s consensus call also for 75bp. At this meeting, we also get ECB staff projections on inflation and growth, so it will be interesting to see how drastically they take down growth expectations. EURUSD 1-week (options) implied vol has pushed higher, but this is also a function of NS1 remaining closed. A 50bp hike obviously can’t be ruled out and if this plays out then expect EURUSD to test 0.9900 • BoC meeting (Thursday 00:00 AEST) – A 75bp hike seems likely from the BoC, taking the lending rate to 3.25% - although there are risks of a 50bp. Short GBPCAD has been the trade here, and the trend seems to be a continued friend. • RBA meeting (Tues 14:30 AEST) – the market is pricing a 50bp hike, and from here resuming to a more conventional 25bp rise from the October meeting. AUD 1-week implied vol sits at 11.9%, subsequently pricing a 93-pip move (up or down) from Friday’s close – not overly high, but last week's low of 0.6771 may come into play fairly soon. • Fed vice chair Brainard and chair Powell speak (Thursday 02:35 & 23:10 AEST respectively) – the USD, gold, NAS100 could be very lively as they explain how the NF payrolls report affects their view on policy. With the market pricing a 54% of a 75bp hike in Sept FOMC, we’re going to need to see the US CPI (13 Sept) to decide the fate of the next hike – 75bp or 50bp – Rates aside, I remain of the view that QT holds big headwinds for risky assets. • Liz Truss likely gets the gig as Tory leader/new UK PM (5 Sept) – GBP in play, although the outcome of Liz Truss as the new PM is fully expected, and clarity on emergency budgets might not be called straight away – there will some focus on Truss’s cabinet appointments, notably the choice of Chancellor. A big political headline event, but seemingly unlikely to spur much vol in the GBP. • OPEC+ meeting (Monday) – the meeting starts at 9 pm AEST/12:00 BST, so we can expect headlines shortly after. The consensus position is for no change in group output levels, but recent comments from the Saudis, that they could cut production, suggest a cut to output can’t be dismissed – should we get a surprise cut, the magnitude of output cuts will determine the spike higher in crude. Risky markets can absorb a spike higher in crude, if it is driven by better demand dynamics, I am not sure they’ll be so receptive to higher crude on supply factors. A break of $86.41 and I’d look for $80.00/50. • EU energy ministers meeting (Friday) – After Friday’s moves from the G7 moves to implement a price cap on purchases of Russian natural gas, the market is keen to explore the price of the cap– this should be discussed at length in the EU energy ministers meeting. Given the Russian response so far, one suspects the Europeans will need to talk about rationing too. Good luck to all!
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
18
CRUDE to continue downward spiralCrude prices are oddly (well, perhaps not so) set to spiral down further below 80. Here is technically why it would... Light Crude Oil futures weekly chart show the recent consolidation around the weekly 55EMA, and that it appears to have broken down decisively, particularly closing at the lowest in the last 5 weeks. Technical indicators, particularly the RPM, suggest more momentum as does the weekly candlestick. The daily chart had a 55EMA failure with a large bearish engulfing candle that overwhelmed a decently large bullish candle the day before. This was followed by a down candle, completing a Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. As if it was not enough, a Gap Down was further followed by a candlestick that closed the week with a long top tail. The daily MACD crossed under the signal line and pushed further down into the bearish territory. Taken together, all these are simply pointing to more downside, likely to press below 80, targeting 70 towards the end of September. On another note, the USD appears to be technically bullish and pushing further up. Ceteris paribus , a rising USD usually pushes Crude prices lower.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
WTI oil - Change in a rhetoric of the OPECIn our last idea on oil, we outlined a scenario for a downtrend correction if the breakout above the sloping resistance took place. A few days later, the breakout occurred, and technical indicators turned bullish. Additionally, a slight change in the rhetoric of OPEC came, with Saudi Arabia and other members hinting at looming production cuts. This development forces us to abandon our price targets because of OPEC's ability to maintain a floor or a lid on oil prices. We will update our thoughts as we get more information concerning the cartel's production. Until then, we abstain from setting price targets for USOIL. Illustration 1.01 The chart above shows the bullish breakout above the prior resistance. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is bullish. The same applies to Stochastic and MACD. However, MACD stays below 0 points; if it breaks above, it will be bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI strives to reverse to the upside; the same applies to Stochastic and MACD. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
15
USOIL - The downtrend continuesIn the first quarter of 2022, we warned market participants about the peaking conditions in the oil bull market. Since then, our predictions came true, and USOIL dropped over 30% from its highs, hitting our 100 USD and 90 USD price targets. At the moment, we still remain bearish on WTI oil with a medium-term price target of 80 USD. Our views are based on technical and fundamental factors. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows USOIL down approximately 33% from its 2022 highs. At the moment, we pay close attention to the sloping resistance; a breakout above it will be a bullish sign, potentially hinting at the correction of the downtrend. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
16
XTIUSD trade will be in new waveXTIUSD trade will be in new wave to hit new high level. Trade will be in the range of 88-73 level back towards $150 level. We publish precise and compact information after careful consideration which give you quick glimpse for comparative analysis. Always do your own analysis before taking any trade. Our aim is to deliver simple and compact information which can be used by beginner to give them brief understanding of trades without any complexity. if you have any question or want to ask about analysis of other pairs or you have any confusion about analysis then feel free to ask us. Don't forget to support us by sharing our ideas and hit like and subscribe button. You can support us through coins donation for more frequent signals.
XLong
by AussieLeader