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WTI oil - Global oil demand is set to fall with deeper recessionIn the recent past, we abstained from setting price targets for the short and medium term. Meanwhile, we became focused on the long-term price target of 70$, which stays in place as we continue to be bearish on USOIL. Our view is based on the deepening recession and falling oil demand. Yesterday, the IEA Executive Director, Faith Birol, said in his interview with Bloomberg during the COP27 summit, "The recent decision of OPEC+ to cut the production by two million barrels a day was definitely not helpful." Additionally, he said that this move by the cartel was fueling inflation in developing countries and may require a "rethink". If his words come true, the world could see temporary stabilization of USOIL prices between 80$ and 90$. However, all depends also on Joe Biden, who currently does not support more drilling activity. Since the stance of the U.S. administration might quickly change (with an even deeper recession and end of midterms) and send prices much lower, we pay close attention to the energy dispute between the U.S. and OPEC. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- are bullish but due to cross each other. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the hourly chart of USOIL and simple sloping support/resistance levels. Interestingly, the immediate sloping support was broken to the downside, which is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
14
CRUDEHello and welcome to this analysis UKOIL formed a Bullish Harmonic Gartley near $83.50 in weekly time frame and reversed from there. In the last few weeks after its 1st round of reversal from the Gartley PRZ it has formed a Cup pattern (rounding bottom) in daily time frame indicating a breakout above $98.50 for $106. While CRUDE OIL at MCX has formed an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern in daily time frame indicating a breakout above 7700 for 8200 and 8800. The movement in MCX Crude will largely be impacted by US$-INR also, keep in mind that factor also.
TVC:UKOILLong
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
$USOIL $97 short-term target 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Hello fellow traders and investors! My team isn't expecting oil/gas demand to slow down anytime soon. A long-term target of $132 and beyond is on the horizon. Ever since the war in Ukraine began the Biden administration has been trying their hardest to keep prices down by releasing war-time oil reserves periodically. This is a temporary solution, and my team believes that it will eventually lead to a blow off top. Raising interest rates seems to be the feds only solution to combating the situation, yet it has become evidently clear that they have no idea what to do and whether or not this will actually solve the issue. These are just our thoughts surrounding the situation and things could change quickly with the emergence of new information. We hope that this helps! !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:USOILLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
A traders week ahead playbook – China and US CPI the core themesCore macro themes traders need to roll with: • China reopening plans – after Friday’s incredible moves will the market buy the expected early weakness? Consider copper had a 4 standard deviation move on Friday (+7.6%) and the HShares closed its best week since 2015. • Central bank divergence is even more pronounced – several central banks have underwhelmed on hikes and in some cases, there was a slight shift in the communication - we see expectations of synchronized tightening reduced and bank's actions are becoming far less aligned – this should cement the idea of trending conditions in the price action and certainly in FX markets • Light at the end of the tunnel – the Fed to step down the pace of hikes to 50bp in December – this week’s CPI data and the suite of Fed speakers may influence this pricing – but peak core inflation/peak rates remain a key theme • Has the USD peaked – are we in a distribution phase? • How much juice has this new bear market rally got left? Is the equity melt-up real? The week ahead playbook Most have their eyes on US CPI this week, but trading China reopening is also front and centre and causing some incredible moves across markets – aside from a number of unsubstantiated tweets focusing on a reopening, there are multiple focal points for traders to sink their teeth into, including: • The US audit (PCAOB) of Chinese companies is speculated to be ahead of schedule, which could lead to a favourable decision on whether to delist Chinese ADRs – • Talk that China is to tweak rules of international flights bringing heavily infected passengers into the country – this includes removing the 2-day negative PCR proof needed for incoming passengers. • Germany detailed that China would make the mRNA vaccine available to foreigners living in China • Medical officials lowering the level of concern on Covid’s long-term effects on health In essence, the news flow, while consistent, has largely been of limited substance - the market, however, has taken the comments seriously enough to cover shorts and initiate longs for the more aggressive traders. Rightly so, China's re-opening is a game changer as it would clearly help reduce global inflationary pressures and catalyse a low in the synchronized global growth slowdown. If we consider the USD ‘smile’ theory, increased demand from China and improved supply chains suggests reduced demand for USDs and play into a view that the USD is putting in the process of a top. Weekend news is perhaps not so inspiring with the official rhetoric pushing back on reopening hopes, with authorities vowing to maintain “unswervingly” its stringent Covid Zero policy – galvanised by the daily covid case count which is pushing 3500 new cases. It will therefore be interesting to see if we see a reversal in a number of the Friday moves – notably where we saw the yuan rally over 2%, copper +7.6%, AUD +2.9%. gold +3.2% and HK50 +5.4%. The HShares had its best one-week gain since 2015. These are incredible moves, but what seems apparent is the market is living in the future and starting to price in a higher probability of a reopening – even if it is staggered and likely to occur in Q1 23. With the Fed the standout, and almost lone hawkish central bank, it’s not all about the Chinese market (and its second-order derivatives – such as the AUD), but the key event risk of the week is the US CPI print – core CPI is what gains the central focus with the consensus at 6.5%, and with the market just so used to above consensus prints it would shock to see a below estimate print. As part of the risk assessment, I question how this print reconciles with current market sentiment – ask yourself, do we get a bigger move in the USD on a below-consensus core inflation print, or a gain in the USD on an above-consensus print? Positioning is always a factor here, and the extent of the beat/miss, as well as the components – my own view is risky assets rally harder on a 6.3% core CPI print than a 6.7% core print – I know many will disagree. Gold is front and centre partly because Friday’s monster 3.2% rally took price up to channel resistance and the top Bollinger Band– this will happen when the USD is smacked 1.8%, and US 5yr real rates move 11bp lower. Clients have started to build a net short position into this resistance zone. Europe and UK also look interesting – Europe equity indices are on a tear (even when priced in USDs), EU Nat gas prices are down 66% from the August highs – Italian 10yr BTP spreads remain contained vs German bunds at 2.16% – the downtrend in EURUSD - drawn from the Feb highs – looks to be over and despite a barrage of bad news over the last 2 months is still printing higher lows. There is a China play in EU assets, but the momentum in EU and UK100 equity indices looks real, although the move is becoming overbought and suggesting buying weakness may be the better play. SpotCrude daily is one to focus on, with price into the 7 Oct highs and making some power plays on Friday – a break of $93.52 naturally puts $100 back on the radar, but again while this reflects the China reopening expectations, a higher crude price isn’t perhaps what the world needs now. Rates Review – we look at market pricing for the next central bank meeting and the step up (in basis points) to the following meetings Other known event risks for traders to navigate this week • US Oct CPI (11 Oct 00:30 AEDT) – The market expects a 7.9% YoY headline print, and 6.5% core inflation – The core measure is the more important of the two and obviously the most important data point for markets right now. The question – as always - do we get the bigger reaction on a below consensus number or above?? Consider CPI has come in above consensus in 10 of the past 12 reports • University of Michigan 5–10-year inflation survey (12 Nov 02:00 AEDT) – No change is expected at 2.9%, but we’ve seen this miss consensus before and move markets • US midterm election (Tuesday) – the Republicans are expected to win both the Senate and House which as I put it in the playbook has implications for future fiscal policy and the debt ceiling – however, what if the polls are wrong and the DEMs get a bigger advantage? The USD could push higher – one consideration is the timing of the results and whether we get a full understanding on the day of the election or further out the week. • Central bank speeches – it’s a huge week ahead for central bank noise – we see 9 Fed speakers, 18 ECB speakers and 7 BoE speakers. In Australia, RBA deputy gov Bullock speaks (9 Nov 20:05 AEDT) • The ECB will publish its economic bulletin (10 Nov 20:00 AEDT) – the forecasts could have a bearing on the perception of the ECB's economic projections due out in the December ECB meeting – could we be looking more intently at a recessionary forecast? • Japan Summary of Opinion (8 Nov 10:50 AEDT) – while the BoJ has held a consistent dovish line, the market will be watching to see if there are any hints at changes to its YCC policy in the future • China CPI/PPI (9 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – CPI is expected to drop to 2.4% (from 2.8%) – Covid policy remains the central focus, so this data point isn’t likely to move the yuan – we also get the money supply and new loans data this week (no set time)
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
1
Crude Oil Swing TradeThe idea here is about Crude Oil Swing Trade: I am bullish on short term for crude oil due to the below observed technical factors. 1. Support established on a daily chart at the point of falling wedge as per below: 2. Deep Crab Harmonic pattern completed on a daily chart as per below: 3. Leonardo Harmonic pattern completed on a weekly chart as per below: 4. Trading below 20 & 200 EMA on daily chart & weekly chart. 5. RSI is at 34.67 on a Daily Chart & 34.36 on a weekly chart at the time of publishing. 6. MACD below signal line on daily & weekly chart . Projected targets as per Deep Crab & Leonardo Harmonic provided in the chart & Weekly Image attached as above. Stop Loss: provided in chart. Disclaimer: “The above is an Educational idea only and not any kind of financial or investment advice. So please do your own DD (Due Diligence) before any kind of investment”. Do you like my TA & ideas!! Want to keep yourself updated with current market action? Then don’t forget boost & to subscribe for more analysis. Do leave your valuable feedback & comments for any improvisations. Cheers.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by Tron029
4
Fed may destroy Oil Demand - Stay CautiousAs soon as the US Fed shifted into rate increases - traders should have suddenly elevated their protection tactics. The Fed's objective is to beat inflation and remove the easy money mentality. In order to do that, they may have to break consumers, industry, global economics, and the general demand cycle for cars, homes, credit/debt, and more. What happens when the Fed raises rates to a point where the global economy comes to a crashing halt? Consumers react by pausing or stalling travel/spending plans - creating demand destruction for Oil, Lumber, and other commodities. In my opinion, it is just a matter of time before Crude Oil collapses downward, headed into a typical seasonal cycle (winter). I believe we may be entering a period of very dangerous demand destruction as the US Fed may have pushed rates too high (again). Stock up. Things could get really WONKY. Follow my research.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BradMatheny