Crude
Range Trading Light Crude Oil-Crude oil is currently trading in a ranging market environment between 83.34 and 70.08 (larger range). Price is also in a smaller range between 82.66 and 72.46 (smaller range).
-From how I see the markets, the 10AM Feb 23 candle was a retest of a fair value gap before a move higher continues aiming between 79.73 and 81.50 price levels. I would like to see the fair value gap left open and not rebalanced completely.
-Bias: Bullish (within the ranges outlined only)
-Why? Some buyside liquidity will likely be rebalanced with a possible sweep to the upside to test the 83.00 level.
-Targets: 79.73-81.5, possibly up to 82.66 for a sweep.
CADCHF - waiting for the volatility explosion?CADCHF has been consolidating in a ever tighter range - but after such an extended period off sideways chop, are we ready for a more impulsive, momentum driven move?
We look at the fundamental variables that could see higher volatility and how crude also plays a key role
For now, traders will play mean reversion - but when the market reveals itself be dynamic and prepare to react.
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil.
On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63
In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03
Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Mid Term Outlook
Current we can see Crude Oil's price action is in the middle of a consolidation correction.
After from the initial push down from the price, market begin to form a larger structure to correct the down move.
We can see now with a few swing highs and lows, a parallel channel like structure is being created.
However, it looks like theres a potenital short term move up first to the top of the structure, before the bigger down move can begin.
For now, its best to wait and see whether we can see a short term up move first, and if it does,
the bigger play is for the downside if the reveral bearish price action is confirmed on the lower time frame.
Thank you
Jojo
Oil grows bearish but SPR refill loomsDespite OPEC cutting its output by an estimated 60 000 barrels per day in January 2023, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil dropped more than 10% from its high of $82.60. This price action follows a series of wild swings within the wide range between $70 and $83. We expect high volatility in the oil market to persist in the first quarter of 2023. Indeed, we think there is a high likelihood of USOIL falling below $70. However, with the U.S. administration seeking to refill its SPR, such a price drop is likely to be short-lived. As conclusion, we think oil will remain stuck within the wide range for a while longer.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Since mid-November 2022, the price can be seen trading within the wide range between $70 and $83.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate two technical developments which contradict each other. The first is a bullish crossover between 20-day and 50-day SMAs; the second is the subsequent price drop below these moving averages. These false and contradictory signals are common for moving averages when the price trends sideways.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price breaks below Support 1, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Brent Crude per Monthly ChartCurrently trading at historical high. Recent long low wicks suggest buoyancy. A determined break above highs of recent monthly candles might see a good long trade.
usoil long 4h When trading crude oil using technical analysis, it is important to consider the following key factors:
Chart patterns: Understanding common chart patterns, such as head and shoulders, triangles, and trend lines, can help traders identify potential buying or selling opportunities in the market.
Technical indicators: Technical indicators, such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), can provide valuable information about market trends and help traders determine the strength of a trend.
Supply and demand: Traders should also consider supply and demand dynamics, such as changes in production levels, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events, which can greatly impact the price of crude oil.
Volatility: The crude oil market is known for its high volatility, and traders should be prepared for significant price movements. It is important to have a risk management strategy in place to limit potential losses.
Diversification: As with any investment, it is important to diversify one's portfolio to minimize risk. Crude oil should be just one component of a well-diversified investment portfolio.
Keep updated: Staying informed about market news and developments, such as changes in production levels, geopolitical events, and economic indicators, can help traders make informed investment decisions.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading in the crude oil market requires patience and discipline. Traders should not make hasty decisions based on emotions, and instead follow a well-thought-out trading plan.
In conclusion, technical analysis can provide valuable insights into the crude oil market, but it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and a well-diversified investment portfolio. As with any investment, there are risks involved and traders should always approach the market with caution.