CrudeOil - Elliott Wave Elliott Wave analysis on Crude Oil suggests more downside closer to $60 levels.
Crude
Oil is staring down the barrel of a bearish breakdownA stronger USD, prospects of a deregulated oil market alongside disappointment with China stimulus and weighed on crude prices on Monday. WTI is toying with a bearish breakout of a pattern which projects a downside target around the mid 50s. But how realistic is that? Let's take a look.
MS.
WTI CRUDE OIL Bullish reversal expected.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is pulling back on the 4hour chart, approaching the Support A level.
This level is where the last two rallies started on Oil.
The 4hour RSI being oversold as now, has coincided with 3 out of 5 major rallies since September 10th, so it is always a desirable level to buy.
Go long and target 78.00 near Resistance A.
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CRUDE OIL Bullish Rebound! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL fell down just
As I predicted but the price
Will soon retest a horizontal
Support level of 66.33$ from
Where we will be expecting a
Local bullish rebound
Buy!
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WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 50% Fibonacci supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 69.44 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 68.15 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 72.54 which is a swing-high resistance.
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#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle.
Quote from last week:
comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 73
bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024.
Invalidation is above 73.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
→ Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market.
short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
CRUDE OIL Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is already making
A bearish pullback from
The horizontal resistance
Of 72.54$ so we are bearish
Biased locally so we will be
Expecting a further move down
Sell!
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CRUDE OIL WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL has retested a key resistance level of 72.50$
And as the price is already making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the demand level below at 69.40$ is likely
SHORT🔥
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WTI Oil H1 | Falling to 61.8% Fibonacci supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 71.67 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 70.55 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 73.50 which is a pullback resistance.
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SELL ON USOIL As usual here is our trade for today on CRUDEOIL/CL/USOIL, you can enter by setting the same SL and TP as mine!
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Let me know the market you want an entry on!
WTI OIL targeting the 1D MA200 at $76.50WTI Oil (USOIL) managed to close yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) despite breaking below it intraday. Even if we see a pull-back like September 25-26, Oil is more likely to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as since the August 12 High, the market is practically ranging between the Support and Resistance Zones. Our Target is $76.50.
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WTI Oil H1 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?WTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 71.38 which is a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Stop loss is at 70.55 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 72.65 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Strong rebound on the 18 month Support.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.224, MACD = -0.080, ADX = 22.753) as it rebounded again on the S1 Zone and already reached the 1D MA50. Even though another test of the S1 Zone is possible according to the multiple tests of the May-June 2023 pattern, the upside is more likely to happen eventually through a test of the 1D MA200. Our target is limited however below the LH trendline (TP = 77.50) as we don't yet have valid grounds to extend buying above it.
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CRUDE OIL RISKY SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL will be retesting a resistance level soon at 72.50$
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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USOIL 71.07 +2.57% SHORT IDEA MULTI-TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at USOIL from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
USOIL DAILY TF
* Last week saw a bearish close with the weekly FVG holding & beautifully rejecting, looking for a retest of this PD ARRAY before continuation down.
* The sentiment is still strongly bearish for OIL from HIGHER TF perspective.
* The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in a range on a bearish trend towards that ERL.
* The picture is clearer with strong bearish moves from the daily, looking for some retracement.
* some volume imbalance left behind on lower TF might confirm this move.
* possibly to be filled before we take that ERL.
USOIL 4H
As we head lower we see some bearish potential for some retracement.
* With the week to opening Bearish (PO3) could see bearish move into the VI.
* sentiment the same on the hourly tf.
* This rally with the bulls & strong momentum to the down side could see some reversal.
looking for some signs of this on todays price action.
* LETS SEE HOW THE MARKET DISHES
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WTI Oil H4 | Resistance overheadWTI oil (USOIL) is trading close to a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.05 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 72.50 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 68.61 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Neutral between 68 - 72. Market is in balance inside this range and for now no side has clearly better arguments for a bigger impulse. Market formed another nested triangle inside the big one. Which means buyers and sellers are in balance.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed.
comment : The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple tf)
key levels : 65 - 72.33
bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Again. There is a very good chance last weeks low 66.72 can hold for now. Bulls made 3 higher highs the past 3 trading days but look at the bars. They scream weakness and the close below 70 was bearish as well. Bulls do not have many arguments here.
Invalidation is below 65.
bear case: Bears keeping this below 70 is much stronger than I expected this for the past 3 weeks. As long as they are not letting the bulls get consecutive bull bars above the daily 20ema, the bears remain in control. Yet I do think sideways is more likely than a break below 65. Last weeks price action was disappointing for both sides, which is why I continue to be neutral on this.
Invalidation is above 72.3.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently.
→ Last Sunday we traded 71.78 and now we are at 69.49. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
WTI CRUDE OIL Final Resistance test before $77.50WTI Crude Oil hit today the 7 day Falling Resistance. A break above it will be bullish as that has been the case on 2 similar patterns previously.
We are ahead of a Golden Cross (1h), which on the 2 previous patterns, has confirmed the uptrend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the Falling Resistance breaks.
Targets:
1. 77.50 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is printing a pattern similar to the September run.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Strong rebound on the Support. Buy.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL almost hit the Support A level and rebounded today.
This is the exact range where the price made a bullish reversal on October 1st and rose to a new Higher High.
Buy and target 78.00 (just under Resistance A).
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CRUDE OIL Potential Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL made a huge
Gap down recently and
The price has almost
Reached a horizontal
Support of 66.50$
From where we will be
Expecting a local
Bullish correction
Buy!
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WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish breakoutWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a potential breakout level where the bearish momentum could drive it lower.
Sell entry is at 67.16 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 68.20 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 65.64 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
2024-10-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Gigantic bear gap with Globex open and market closed 370 ticks down or a bit more than 5%. 1h 20ema is resistance until clearly broken. Bulls are in a world of hurt here. 66.5 is the next lower target before we go for 65. Bulls need anything above 68 again.
comment: Market has now went from doing 18% upwards, going down 14% and leaving two bear gaps open. The October low is at 65.74, which will likely be hit over the next 1-2 days and if it does not hold, we will test 64 again. Bulls need to break above the 1h 20ema and then 69. I don’t think they can get much higher than that tomorrow or I’d be surprised big time. Huge difference between bulls and bears on the daily chart, is that bear bars have big tails below and market is still going down hard. Bull bars close on their highs but bulls are getting slaughtered. Could be bulls who bought the 1st of October spike, scaling in and they probably have their stops either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. Either case, it will be interesting to see the market reaction if we drop below those prices.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Couple of ways to try to draw the bear trend line with the lows of the past 3 weeks but all are ugly. Bulls who buy this are probably scaling into positions and their stops are either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. If they can keep the market above 65 and quickly trade back above 69, there is a chance the lows can hold and that we have printed a higher low but those odds are bad after a -5% day. Best they can probably get is sideways movement between 66 and 69.
Invalidation is below 65.74.
bear case: Bears only got the market 80 ticks lower than the Globex spike, which is confirmation of this sell off. Their lower targets are the October low 65.74 and then the September low 63.46. We have an ugly bear channel with almost all bear bars having big tails below them, which shows buying pressure but bears are still selling this down hard. Which is a bit unusual I think. After such a strong bear day, follow through is expected and until bulls have clearly broken above 68 again, that price was decent to short today. For tomorrow I want to see if we have formed a tighter channel than the big one visible on the daily chart and if market is respecting an ema (currently the 1h held). I would not short below 67 but rather on pullbacks.
Invalidation is above 69.
short term: Max bearish. Can’t remember when I have last seen a 200+ tick futures gap that stayed open.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Selling around the EU open was ok once we broke below 68.3.
WTI CRUDE OIL: 1H Death Cross suggests another Low is coming.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.281, MACD = -0.560, ADX = 26.062) with the bearish bias evident as in the last 3 weeks the price is trading inside a Channel Down. The formation of a 1H Death Cross earlier today, draws comparisons with the October 15th one. Both price actions found a temporary support on the 1.382 Fibonacci level at the time of the Death Cross but the 1H RSI was rebounding on a bullish divergence. We expect the price to extend replicating that bearish wave and approach the 1.618 Fib eventually (TP = 66.00).
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