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#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Dead zone 70 - 72. Best not to trade it and wait for the breakout. I have no opinion on who wins it. For me to believe the bullish breakout to be good, I need to see follow through selling above 73, otherwise it could still be just a retest of the previous support. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Below 68 things get really spicy. Invalidation is below 68. bear case: Bears need a daily close below the bull trend lines (also head & shoulders neckline) for lower prices. First would be below 69 and second is below 68. If they manage that, market is free to test down to 66 and then 64. If the neckline breaks, measured move would be 59ish but that is very far fetched. Invalidation is above 72.7. outlook last week: short term : Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. → Last Sunday we traded 68.69 and now we are at 71.78. Decent outlook. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted bear gap
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) ) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 69.33 which is a swing-low support. Stop loss is at 68.46 which is a level that aligns under a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 71.93 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
WTI turns sharply lowerCrude oil prices were over 3% higher this week, but as i mentioned in my previous post, the risks remained tilted towards the downside following a 9% drop the previous week. Lo and behold, WTI has now turned sharply lower after testing broken support between $71.50 to $72.50 area in the last couple of days. At the time of writing, it was back to the $70.00 level, which, if breached decisively, could pave the way for more losses in the days ahead. Middle East tensions have slightly stabilized as Israel has so far refrained from attacking Iran and has said it will not target its nuclear facilities. However, the situation remains volatile due to Israel’s ongoing operations in Lebanon, which has reignited concerns about disrupted oil supply. Meanwhile, the oil market is also cautious about a possible Trump victory in the US election, as his policy of boosting oil production could lead to oversupply and further price declines. by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
WTI CRUDE OIL: Keeps respecting the long term Support Zone.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.339, MACD = -0.320, ADX = 27.988) as it is recovering from last week's red candle that almost touched the S1 Zone. As long this holds, WTI will be bullish on the medium term at least, as on the long term the formation of the 1W Death Cross is bearish. The presence of the LH trendline doesn't allow much room for higher targets and since the previous rebound on the S1 Zone (December 11th 2023) came close to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, our target is in the vicinity of those (TP = 78.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 72.90 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 74.92 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 70.63 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line tomorrow, that means that a deep pullback to 69.7 or 70 is possible. There I would look for longs again. comment: Bullish breakout and my major trend reversal theory was good. Bulls now should not let this drop below 69.5 again. We could see a retest of ~70 again before we go higher. I will only look for longs on this tomorrow and anything below 70.5 is a decent trade. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Targets for the bulls are now 72.6 to close the bear gap and above that is 75. No more words needed for this. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears need to get this below 69.5 again to continue the trading range or otherwise we see a bigger move upwards to the given targets. Have we already seen the giving up from the bears today? If we stay above 70.5, then it’s likely so. If they get it below 69.5 again, next target is 69.26 where I expect most bull stops to be and that would be a very important price for both sides. If bears print 69.5, a continuation of the trading range 68 - 70.5 is most likely. Invalidation is above 72.3. short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 69.5. Neutral below. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Will do a swing long on a pullback tomorrow. trade of the day: Long since bar 6 or the double bottom around 69.3.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Gold is surging while Crude Oil is laggingHere is a ratio chart of Gold OANDA:XAUUSD and Crude Oil $USOIL. Historically you can see it goes to extremes. Especially in 2020 when crude oil went to zero (and negative). I cut that spike out of the chart so hopefully it shows here. When the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009 hit, crude oil hit $140 and gold was low which set up the bottom of this chart on the lower-left. Crude was expensive and gold was cheap. The opposite happened during Covid when crude plunged and gold stayed relatively calm. These are generational trades that can make traders rich but they take too long for the average small investor to stay focused and take advantage of these setups. With Gold now at the upper end of the range of this ratio, it is time to start looking elsewhere to protect your wealth. Can this ratio continue higher? Yes, of course. I point it out as a starting point for your trading. If you are just getting long gold up here now, you need to understand where the historical range is for this ratio and decide if you want energy to keep you warm and let you travel or do you want a store of money. It is always a trade-off between the two. You can't live with only one of these commodities. Cheers. Tim 12:33PM EST, October 22, 2024
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by timwest
3
2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Trading range 68 - 70.6 continues. Neutral as it gets in between. Don’t over analyse this range. comment : Bulls fighting for 70 and there is a chance this today was a lower low major trend reversal and we go up from here. Validation is only a daily close above 71, so don’t be early like me last week. Continuation of the trading range is a bit more likely than a bullish breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Bulls want to keep 70 support and break above the bear channel now. They still need to break the bear trend line and above the daily 20ema. Given the current chart, you simply can not hold longs above 70 for now. Invalidation is below 67.7. bear case: Bears keeping this at the lows is good for them. They could still try to get a third leg down to retest the September low 63.46 but right now that is as unlikely as bulls breaking above 71. I do think one side will give up this week and we see a bigger move. Do not trade on hopes of an event which could sent oil prices higher. That is not a trading strategy, that is gambling. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 68.6 since it was previous support and close enough to the bull trend line to expect it to hold. Was good for 150+ ticks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Can oil prices hit 100 usd/bbl in 2025?🔸Based on technicals it's entirely possible. Looking at the daily price chart of Brent Oil we can spot a sequence of lower lows having said that prices are also compressing in a falling wedge price structure which could indicate a swift reversal off the lows near 65 USD/bbl. 🔸Potential price targets for Brent at 100/110 USD bbl if the tensions escalate further in 2025, which is almost guaranteed at this stage. 🔸The possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict has escalated tensions in the Middle East, which is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Although Israel has not yet officially declared war on Iran, there is ongoing speculation about Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure in response to missile attacks and Iran's support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Such actions could significantly disrupt the global oil market. 🔸If Israel were to target major Iranian oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, which handles the majority of Iran's oil exports, global oil prices could spike dramatically. Analysts suggest prices could exceed $100 per barrel and might even reach as high as $200 if the conflict spreads to other regional oil producers or if key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. This scenario would impact not only fuel prices but also inflation globally, reviving economic fears similar to those seen during the 1970s oil crisis​ 🔸At the moment, oil prices have already seen increases due to the broader conflict, but the market has remained relatively stable thanks to diversified supplies from the U.S. and other non-Middle Eastern producers​ ​ 🔸However, if the situation deteriorates further, particularly with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, more significant price hikes are likely. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
TVC:UKOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
WTI Oil H1 | Overhead pressures remainWTI oil (USOIL) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 70.04 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 71.40 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 68.66 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls nowhere to be found. We are near the minor bull trend line starting from the September low below 64 and it is more likely that this trend line holds and we do not go below the October low 65.74. Can you long this based on that assumption? I would not. Wait for bigger buying pressure and break of the bear trend line currently around 70.4. Can you sell this? On a pullback yes, but not below 70. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: No more bullish thoughts from me for now. Only an event can save the bulls. Monday they had another chance and they blew it on Tuesday. Now market has formed a big bear wedge but the hope that this will break to the upside is slim. Bull trend line at 68 has to hold or bulls will give up until 65. Invalidation is below 68 bear case: Bears won last week big time. Now they want to run all the stops below 65 and retest 63.46. Problem with their case is the bull trend line and the bear wedge. We are trading at the lows and above the bull trend line, which is a bad spot for new shorts. Any short around the daily 20ema near 71 is probably a decent trade. Invalidation is above 72. outlook last week: short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. → Last Sunday we traded 75.56 and now we are at 68.69. That outlook was garbage. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bullish pattern, added bear gap and bear wedge.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
USOIL Faces Resistance: Bearish Trend if Pivot Retest FailsUSOIL Technical analyze The price is currently below the pivot line at 71.78, indicating bearish sentiment. There is a possibility for a retest of the pivot area around 71.78 to 72.72. If the price fails to break and sustain above this area, it is likely to continue downward. If the retest confirms resistance at the pivot line, the price may move towards the support level around 68.79. A break below this level could further extend the bearish trend, targeting lower support zones. Best Direction: Bearish: If the retest fails and the price holds below 72.72, the direction favors a move toward lower support levels, beginning with 68.79. Bullish: If the price breaks and holds above 72.72, it may attempt to target higher levels, but this remains less likely under current conditions. The overall bias remains bearish unless the pivot area is decisively broken. Key levels: Pivot Line 70.90 Resistance lines: 71.78, 72.72, 74.20 Support Lines: 69.90, 68.80, 65.90 Trend Outlook: - Bearish while Under 70.95 and 71.78 - Bullish above 71.78
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
WTI CRUDE OIL: Price is bottoming. Excellent long trade.WTI Crude Oil is borderline neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.282, MACD = 0.240, ADX = 34.094) as it is consolidating just over the HL trendline and under the 4H MA200. This consolidation so close to a Support is technically a bottoming process. January-February 2023 exhibited similar behavior that caused the price to rebound towards the R1 level again. The patterns are so far very similar, so we expect the price action to complete the sequence by rising again towards the R1. Aim just under it (TP = 76.50) to lower the risk. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
3