Crude Oil Forms A Bullish BaseLeft Char: A weekly line chart, on log scale, shows downtrend breakout along with bullish divergence on RSI .
Right Chart: A daily chart shows down trend breakout and is about to form an inverted H&S.
Update status
Crudechart
Range bound crudeCrude is developing a fairly big range. A close above the 36.25 area and we could see a move up to 38.50. If this level doesn't hold then $44.00 is on the radar screen. Below 28.50 opens the door to the 24.00-25.00 area. Be patient with Crude.
Be AwareCrude blew through our trigger zone and never gave us a chance to enter. For now we are on the side lines. At this point crude is in the middle of the chop. We are consolidation so we will keep a close eye on this. BE AWARE: It could chop around for a while.
Crude oil - the turning point - about 20USD (15-25)increase of stocks - new record, all time high 356 635 thousand barrels – September 26, 2014, 494 920 thousand barrels – January 26, 2016
oil production is still high despite of decreasing rig counts
decrease of managed money positions - 184 317 – October 13, 2015, 69 755 – January 12, 2016, 110 432 – January 26, 2016
Murrey math lines: monthly chart 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 25
4H chart, daily chart 3/8 – Lower trading range – resistance: 34,38, 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 28,13 , 0/8 – Hardest line to fall below – support: 25,01 , -1/8 Oversold line – support: 21,89 , 2/8 minimum of scale – support: 18,77
Moving average EMA200: 4H chart – 34,38 – resistance
Harmonics pattern: monthly chart – end of reversal zone 16,62
minimum from 1998 – spot price about 10 , real price (inflation adjusted) 14-15
source: www.finila.com
A little to long sideCrude had a nice break from a small consolidation pattern last week. There were rumors flying which helped the pop. We are seeking a trigger on a pullback to the Trigger Zone. This will be a small position (Tier 1) as we know Crude could roll very quickly. If we are able to get long we be keeping a tight leash on this trade. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Where's the...bottom?Crude has no bottom in sight. IF YOU TRY TO PICK THE BOTTOM PLEASE GET A HOLD OF US AND WE WILL TELL YOU WHERE TO SEND US THE CHECK INSTEAD. IT WILL BE LESS PAINFUL. :)
BE PATIENT with crude. A bottom will happen soon enough but it will need to FORM a bottom first. We have no interest in shorting down here. Keep on watch list.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) - GLOBAL FORECAST!No comments... Just 1-st variant of possible price progression near future!
2016 shake and bakeCrude is a trade we are stalking for 2016. We see the possibility of a bottom and will look to buy for a longer time frame. DON'T expect crude to bounce straight to $100...because it won't! We are taking a longer term approach to this. However we will still trade around the core position. We have a descending pattern that is one of favorites. We will watch lower time frames for setups. Trade well and have a very profitable 2016!
Oil in trouble...again!This was the week of laid eggs. OPEC showed it no longer has any control. The oil production number was leaked earl in the day on Friday and basically said they will not curb production. With the current glut of oil, further production spells further trouble for oil. How far can she go? We think oil could flirt with the $30 area. At this point all pullbacks will be shorted this week.
The squeeze is on!We didn't see this big of a move coming. We saw the break but expected a quick return to the wedge after getting more people short. It looks like they will squeeze Venezuela and Russia further with lower prices. August lows are a stones throw away. We will "nibble" short if we get a bounce. It will be with small size and tight stops. It won't take much to snap that rubber band and we would rather be long than short. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Is CRUDE drunk? Crude is ready to fire off short based on our signals...however she has been all over the place. We ONLY like the long side so we are looking for a false signal and reversal. IF she does take out the most recent lows and picks up speed we will PASS until we start setting up to the long side. Every time we get a dip on crude we get more suspicious of the move so we will be patient for the long side. Keep crude on your watch list.
Whack a mole with CrudeA quick move outside of the channel was short lived. We wanted to short after a close outside of the channels but the FOMC announcement kept us away. Regardless, there was no way that we would have triggered this trade. Crude blew back into the channel and could start chopping around. We will NOT get involved in this area. We will watch Crude and see how she acts this week.
Ready to...roll out of bed?Crude is testing the lower channel area. We are watching this closely. We want to see a clean break of the lower zone before look for trigger zones. Keep her on your watch list.
A stop tells a storyCrude made a quick move and got new longs stuck which fueled the sell off. We triggered long this morning and got stopped for 50 ticks which is a win in our book. We learned long ago that a stop is the beginning of a story. This story is telling us that there may be more downside. We are technically back in the consolidation area and we are sitting on our hands for now. We want to see closes above or below the red lines to feel bullish or bearish.
Crude is in the giving mood#2 is in the bag and we will push this trade as long a we can. Ideally we want to see the 200 Day EMA at around 56. This is a long way away but if this move is for real we should be able to stay with the trade. As price moves we will adjust stops to follow. We like what we see with the whole energy complex. Stay tuned.
WEEKLY Crude ChartWEEKLY VIEW of Crude. We have been hearing a lot of predictions about crude and we have even stated that we like the upside...but if you take a close look at the weekly chart it illustrates how crude tested each side of it's range and then closed in the middle for 5 straight weeks. Lots of indecision. The weekly pattern screams more upside but the indecision of the last 5 weeks suggests it's a coin flip. We will wait for the pattern to resolve itself and then trade in that direction.
Let's Get Ready to RUUUUMMMMBLLLLE!Two inside days means we are about ready to rock with Crude. This is a clean flag and we still like the upside but BE MINDFUL THAT CRUDE can go either way. There are a lot of factors at work with oil. Don't be a hero and guess. Wait for the market to tip it's hat and look for a trigger.
Ding, Ding...hitting the cash registerCrude moved fast and furious so we took some off at 42.04 and pulled stops to our entry level. We weren't expecting this quick of a move so we had to adjust. That is trading...noting is static. It's a free trade and we will trail the stop until we see target #2 or get taken out.
Crude on the mat and not looking goodCrude is getting real ugly. This product will test you. While there is no doubt that oil in the 30"s is attractive it would be painful to buy on the way down. Nobody...and we mean nobody knows how far crude will go. However, we will watch the Descending Channel for an upside break.
Crude under pressureCrude (22.05.2015) traded lower as per our expectation as mention in our previous article, however it fail to reach to $55.70 mark & bounced back with current week inventory support.
Now crude is trading around $60 mark & as we can see on charts, crude trying to retest the broken trade line of ascending channel. The bounce was supported by volume as well as pattern is not very ideal for recovery. On elliott wave count , crude probably trading under 1st downside wave with probably V wave down now. However the count is not very ideal still there is no other probability available this time.
On fundamental side, although we witness a good withdrawal last week, total inventories still roaming around all time high while strong dollar likely to continue.
Based on above technical picture , crude probably move downward once again. Level $55.70 & then $51.50 will be on radar.
MCX -> S2(3610) S1(3724) cmp(3832) R1(3910) R2(3980)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/ sell recommendation.
Read more articles here www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in
Crude can hit back again.Crude(25.03.2015) broken downside & traded lower towards $43 mark as mention in our last analysis. However the recovery was quite sharp to resistance zone once again.
Now crude is trading around $47.50 & as we can see on charts, its approaching to the broken tradeline of last symmetrical triangle pattern. This recovery seems to be a corrective one due to less volume & weak candlestick structure. However small timeframe charts showing some positivity but day & weekly charts are still bearish. To convert this rally into a reversal crude must provide a close above $55 mark otherwise a deeper fall may occur this time.
On fundamental side nothing have changed. Crude inventory & production still on higher levels while next OPEC meeting due on 5th june 2015 at Vienna, Austria is far away.
Based on above studies, we will prefer to stay on sell side & may witness a fall back towards $44 mark & may be followed by $41 in coming weeks.
MCX -> S2(2810) S1(3020) cmp(3130) R1(3300) R2(3560)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us
Call Us : 088890 34986
www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in
Swing and a miss!THAT'S TRADING...we were looking for a pullback that didn't happen and our rules say "No Trigger, No Trade" and we didn't get a trigger therefore we are not in this move. Does it hurt...YES! But discipline pays and with discipline you will miss some moves. If you are short CONGRATS! Be sure to take some profits and move stops. $41 is approaching fast. We are still watching for bounces to see if buys are stepping.
