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Crude Oil

WTI off lows after earlier drop, but what now?Crude oil prices gave up their earlier gains, to turn modestly lower on the day after the release of the EIA weekly US oil inventories, before bouncing off their lows ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Watch the closing prices. A daily close in the red may lead to some follow-up selling in the days ahead, given that WTI has arrived and reacted negatively from the key $79 level. Crude stocks came in at +3730K vs. -1025K expected and +1233K the week before. For gasoline, stocks came in at +2566K, significantly surpassing the expected +0.891K reading. Distillates, on the other hand, registered +881K against an anticipated +2147K. Refinery utilization saw a decrease of 0.4%, slightly more than the expected decline of 0.3%. Additionally, US crude imports reached their highest level since 2018, which may help explain the discrepancy in expectations. Crude oil had staged a sharp recovery after hitting key support at $72.50 on Wednesday, before today’s struggles. The rally has been driven by hopes for increased fuel demand as the US driving season progresses. We have had a couple of stronger US macroeconomic pointers including the ISM services PMI and monthly jobs report that helped to reduce fears about demand weakness. Prices also found support from oversold conditions following a three-week decline that had been fuelled by concerns over Chinese demand and rising non-OPEC supply. Today’s inventories figures were considered bearish by traders, and they sold oil after WTI had risen to test resistance and its bearish trend line around $79. The lower highs suggest the short-term path of least resistance is still downward, until told otherwise by the charts. In terms of support, the next important zone is between $76.00 and $76.50 for WTI, which had been both support and resistance in the past. If prices fall below this area, the bearish trend may resume, potentially triggering further technical selling. Meanwhile the key resistance level to watch is around $79.00, give or take, where the trend line and the base of last week’s breakdown meet. This is where today’s rally has stalled for now. The bulls will need to see a close above here in order to initiate a move towards $80 and higher. Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com Follow me on twitter: x.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
WTI Oil - 4H Sell OpportunityThe WTI Oil chart shows a compelling setup for a short position. The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone around $79, coinciding with a strong downward trend line that has been respected multiple times. This area acts as a confluence of resistance, providing a high-probability entry for selling. Given the persistent bearish trend, this resistance zone is likely to hold, reinforcing the potential for a downward move. The chart indicates that selling WTI Oil at this juncture offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, aiming for a decline towards lower support levels as shown by the red arrows.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Sober_Trading
1
Monday/Tuesday Bullish.. Continuation on Wednesday? Hello Traders. The Monthly candle has flipped bullish and the weekly candle is pushing for new highs as the 3rd Asian session of the week kicks off here. Monday was super bullish and today's tuesday candle closed bullish after a late NY bullish push. We observed (4) 4hr candles print bearish consecutively only to be overshadowed by a large bullish candle that began it's ascent at around London close today. The Market is bullish and so continuing to look for longs up to the next 4hr level (79.00) is a scenario for the next session. Another scenario is we push to the 78.50 4hr level and then rollover towards (77.30) 4hr level. The market totally changed behavior after dipping into 73 Weekly Level. The last crude oil inventories, which was forecasted to see a decrease by 2.1m barrels, instead saw an increase and this lined up with a low in the market . The news was About 1.13$ off the low and has been a catalyst for this bullish momentum in the last few days. Interest rates, CPI and Inventories tomorrow will surely send the markets into an uproar so careful trading ahead.
TVC:USOILLong
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Crude Oil : Monthly candle flips bullish Hello Traders. The Daily Range today on Crude Oil was 2.89$. This is in the top 10% of the 113 Daily candles that we've observed so far this year for Crude. Quite the move to the upside to begin the week! We mirrored the move bearish from the previous week, which happened to be on Monday as well. The monthly candle managed to flip back bullish as we kickoff the second week of June. After tapping into 72.58 Weekly support level last week, price jumped up. We hadn't seen this price since Jan/Feb of this year and so mpt surprised to see Bulls step in an push price up. Interesting to note that the Daily candle today failed to close with a top wick. This signals some profit taking and exhaustion based off my analysis. Additionally, ever since the new daily candle opened, price has been pulling back down. Tuesday is starting out bearish.. will buyers step back in? Where could they? These are the prices I like for the upcoming sessions.
TVC:USOILShort
by ShrewdCatfx
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. comment: Fair to say that bears surprised me big time on Monday with the huge follow through selling through previous bigger support. 72 stopped the fall and created an expected bounce. I do think this was W5 and my bearish targets are all met for now. Market should move sideways to up from here. On Friday we got a perfect retest of the breakout price of 76 and that was resistance for now. Worst case scenario for bulls would be to stay below 76. The bull trend line will get retested and should hold for now. current market cycle: Bear trend which could transition into a trading range here key levels: 72-78 bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Huge bear surprise imo on Monday and bears want to keep it max bearish and they will do that by keeping the market below the breakout price around 76 and below the daily ema. They want a retest of 72.5 again and poke the bull trend line enough for bulls to give up there. If they actually get an acceleration of this bear trend, which is the low probability thing, they could retest 70 next and below 70 comes 67 as support. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.” → Last Sunday we traded 76.99 and now we are at 75.53. High of the week was 77.52 so the uber bearish price action, was surprising to me. I did not advise you to be bullish, unless there confirmation for the bulls and obviously that did not happen. So my bearish target of 75, if we go below 76, was alright but way too short of 72.48. Not a good outlook. short term: Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. current swing trade: None chart update: Added my pretty bear channel, adjusted 5-wave series and added a two-legged pullback, which we are probably in as of now. The red ABC is how I imagine it to play out price-wise, not time wise. We should see a retest of the lows as well as the daily ema. I don’t know which comes before what or when. Also adjusted the big bear trend line from 2022.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
CRUDE OIL (CL): Weak Momentum Likely to Persist?Assalamualaikum wbt and Good Day to fellow traders! From my rather simplistic view, the overall two-hour time frame (TF2hr) chart seems to indicate that the prices for WTI Light Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) could go further south at least for the time being. The further potential weakness is being reinforced by the significant key moving averages (in this case Exponential Moving Averages or EMAs ) - the EMA50 (blue line) and EMA200 (amber line) - in which the Black Gold sits below those lines since April 17, 2024. Despite several rebound attempts, the commodity has continued to slide downwards making some notable Lower Lows and Lower Highs until recently last Friday while trading range-bound in between. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also flashed a cautious sell signal last Friday following a cross over. On top of that, the obvious rejection at the 76.03-76.30 key level could possibly suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play. However, a bullish reversal may occur should the MACD crossover take place above the 0 line with the help of a significant volume, as well as the two EMAs crossing up. Wallahu a'lam. #cl #crudeoil #wti #blackgold #exponentialmovingaverage #ema #macd
NYMEX:CL1!
by rahman_daros
OPEC Secretary-General Affirms Resilient Oil Demand OPEC Secretary-General Affirms Resilient Oil Demand OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday that oil demand remains resilient. "It's crucial to stay focused on the fundamentals," he emphasized. "Economic growth, supply, and demand are what drive our decisions." Al-Ghais noted that global demand increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in the first quarter, typically the weakest quarter due to global refinery maintenance. He anticipates continued strong demand in the coming months, particularly with the uptick in summer travel. Saudi Energy Minister Dismisses Bearish Response to OPEC+ Deal, Confident Market Will Adjust Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman dismissed the market's bearish reaction to OPEC+'s decision to gradually phase out voluntary output cuts, expressing confidence that the market will adjust. "Give it a day or two, reality will set in," he stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday. He criticized some banks and media outlets for their narratives around the meeting and reaffirmed that OPEC+ made the right decision. "I know that we did the best job," he asserted. The OPEC+ meeting initially triggered an oil selloff, exacerbated by short selling and movements in the options market, as traders worried about potential oversupply. However, Abdulaziz emphasized that OPEC+ retains the flexibility to pause or reverse production increases based on market conditions. OIL OUTLOOK Oil prices increased early as we mentioned, recovering from a four-month low, which was the lowest point since February. This drop was attributed to an unexpected surge in U.S. stockpiles, indicating softer demand than anticipated. Technically: The price has stabilized within the bearish zone, having already corrected the previous barrier which is 75.39. This suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, with potential targets at 72.500 and 70.570. A further break below 72.500 could lead the price down to 70.570. Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 75.400, it may indicate a bullish trend, potentially reaching up to 78.070. Pivot line: 75.390 Support lines: 72.50, 70.57, 68.12 Resistance lines: 76.80, 78.07, 79.35 The movement range will be between support 70.57 and Resistance 76.80 previous idea:
FX:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
USOIL SHORT The price may rise to $82 but could also fall to about $70. 101.9 million barrels of oil will be consumed worldwide per day. By next year, the oil markets appear to be oversupplied. Highlights Lower Russian output and more demand brought on by China's reopening could help oil prices. Low demand and a bleak macroeconomic outlook for China When the Energy Information Administration releases its inventory figures on Wednesday, more oil-related information will be available. - --------------- **First Scenario - Long:** Initial Target: $80.90 Entry: $79.08 Stoploss: $77.47 **Second Scenario - Short:** Initial Target: $74 Entry: $78.34 Stoploss: $79.2 - --------------- After a long wait, I am currently waiting for this pair to give me my confirmation for a Short position (Data) - --------------- Take into consideration: It appears that the market has settled in a range of $79.44 to $76.86, with the 7.68 retracement level above the latter being significant. - --------------- NFA DYOR - --------------- Good Luck! ⚠️Caution: Just because I've set my buy and sell position Settings or drawn direction lines on my chart doesn't indicate I've opened a position or am obsessed with a particular bias. This is only a forecast; I don't trade when the price reaches my level; I have rules of engagement. Perhaps the most crucial element is 🆘RISK MANAGEMENT🆘.
TVC:USOILShort
by irfanp056
1
WTI CRUDE OIL: Oversold offers a buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.383, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 31.641) as the price is approaching the bottom of the 2 month Channel Down. As long as it remains under the 1D MA50, the long term trend will be bearish but the oversold conditions and the 1D MACD, which is replicating the early December 2023 bottom pattern, call for a low risk short term buy opportunity. We are targeting the top of the Channel Down and no higher than the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 76.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by InvestingScope
OIL: Day 3 breakout shorts in the marketHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ No cycle started yet Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 Friday DAY 3 Closing Range 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day First Green Day 3 Days Long Breakout 3 Days Short Breakout ✅ Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump ✅ Dump&Pump Frontside Backside ✅ 4. THESIS: Long: secondary, many times, day 3 shorts in the market are a strong reversal signal, especially during Wednesday or Friday (which closes the week). From Friday NY session the market dumped down and currently it looks consolidating on the low, with a chance to push higher stopping the previous and most recent level short (I would define it a long scalp) Short: primary, market still on the backside, a lower low into the LOW can be a great clue of daily pump and dump back into the LOW or previous LOW. Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by GianniPichichero
6
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare